Prospect Info: The 2020 Entry NHL Draft Thread

[henchman21]

Thanks, I really appreciate your insights. That's some high praise, and from your description he sounds like a good guy to target.

Would you reach for him at 27th overall already despite it being a reach rankings-wise, or would you look into trading down 10-15 picks for an extra 2nd pick? I figure that if Niemela will be available until around 40th then trading down for and picking up an extra 2nd would be good value in this draft.

I wouldn't risk trading down in that range. Too many unknowns in who is drafting who, and I'd want to get my guy. I personally doubt he'll be there at 27... somebody will like him too much and grab him earlier.

 

[Richard88]

I wouldn't risk trading down in that range. Too many unknowns in who is drafting who, and I'd want to get my guy. I personally doubt he'll be there at 27... somebody will like him too much and grab him earlier.

Good to hear that there are at least two good RHD's that may be available at our pick. That said, are there any other RHD's other than Schneider and Niemelä to keep an eye out for?

 

[henchman21]

Good to hear that there are at least two good RHD's that may be available at our pick. That said, are there any other RHD's other than Schneider and Niemelä to keep an eye out for?

Barron

 

[Richard88]

Barron

Is Barron really a realistic pick for Avs to make, considering his blood-clot issues? I'm thinking back to Tomas Fleischmann who had similar issues that led to him being advised not to resign in Denver due to the high altitude.

 

[henchman21]

Is Barron really a realistic pick for Avs to make, considering his blood-clot issues? I'm thinking back to Tomas Fleischmann who had similar issues that led to him being advised not to resign in Denver due to the high altitude.

Fleischmann was cleared to play and sign anywhere... and actually wanted to come back and play for the Avs. The Avs decided to move on. Blood clots are a lot bigger issue than people realize in the NHL, and it depends on the type to how big of issue it is. The Avs didn't sign off on Flash's, but were willing this year to go after Kreider who has had blood clot issues as well.

 

[Richard88]

Fleischmann was cleared to play and sign anywhere... and actually wanted to come back and play for the Avs. The Avs decided to move on. Blood clots are a lot bigger issue than people realize in the NHL, and it depends on the type to how big of issue it is. The Avs didn't sign off on Flash's, but were willing this year to go after Kreider who has had blood clot issues as well.

Are blood clots more common in the NHL because of players constantly being in cold environments (literally on ice)? Or what do you mean there?

 

[Papa Francouz]

To me, Schneider's ceiling is of a 3/4 who is really a 4 on a good team. His floor is fairly high. Anybody can bust but he's a very projectable NHL player and should be at least a solid bottom pairing guy. I just don't see a ton of upside in his game, and IMO if you are 'just' going after 4-6 level sort of defensemen, take those types in the 2-4th round. He's okay at everything, good at nothing sort of guy. Don't waste a first rounder on that sort of player. Let me put it a different way... if you got Ian Cole out of Schneider, you did fairly solid in that pick. If you get Hamonic, you did great. When you're in a position to get a more impactful player I think you should take that chance. Personally, I'd much rather deal with the issues of selecting a Poirier who has real talent and then trying to find enough ice, than trying to pull talent out of a player that doesn't really have any.

If you want smarts and skating... Cormier should be #2 behind Drysdale.

That makes sense. Guys drafted that late in the 1st don't need to make their debut right away, nor are expectations all that high for them. I'd be stoked with either a Cole or a Hamonic, to be honest, as I think a guy like that would perfectly round out a future top-4 of Makar/Girard/Byram/1st 2020. The Avs would be missing out on guys with higher upside, for sure, but unless they can pull a Pastrnak out of the end of the 1st, I'd rather go with a solidly projectable NHL-caliber player in that slot, as they haven't given me much confidence in drafting forwards outside of the top-10.

As for Cormier, maybe I'm being a size queen but I do want someone who can impose themselves physically against opposing forwards, especially if we're trading Z this offseason. There really wouldn't be anyone on the back end with a physical element to their game minus Byram, and I don't think he'll be using that physical edge for at least a while in the NHL. So let me just go ahead and add "physical" right behind "smarts" and "skating..."

 

[PAZ]

To me, Schneider's ceiling is of a 3/4 who is really a 4 on a good team. His floor is fairly high. Anybody can bust but he's a very projectable NHL player and should be at least a solid bottom pairing guy. I just don't see a ton of upside in his game, and IMO if you are 'just' going after 4-6 level sort of defensemen, take those types in the 2-4th round. He's okay at everything, good at nothing sort of guy. Don't waste a first rounder on that sort of player. Let me put it a different way... if you got Ian Cole out of Schneider, you did fairly solid in that pick. If you get Hamonic, you did great. When you're in a position to get a more impactful player I think you should take that chance. Personally, I'd much rather deal with the issues of selecting a Poirier who has real talent and then trying to find enough ice, than trying to pull talent out of a player that doesn't really have any.

If you want smarts and skating... Cormier should be #2 behind Drysdale.

How many of those defenseman with high floors actually make it and do well? Mainly when I think back of players that were advertised as a safe defenseman with a fairly high floor or without a standout ability... I can't think of many that panned out. In the recent drafts - Morin, Hagg, Mueller, Zboril, Larsson, Carlsson, Stanley (lul), are all pretty much busts.

Now obviously there are busts and i'm sure i'm missing some success stories, I honestly can't think of any though.

 

[henchman21]

Are blood clots more common in the NHL because of players constantly being in cold environments (literally on ice)? Or what do you mean there?

Genetically, 5ish% of people are genetically predisposed to blood clots. A number of names have cropped up in the NHL over the years. Beyond that though... injuries and blocking shots leave players at a higher risk. Any time you get an injury, you're susceptible.. Ortmeyer's issues started after his ACL surgery. Timonen had a genetic predisposition. Vokoun had a condition from when he sustained burns as a child. It is just a more common issue in society, but gets ratcheted up with air travel and constantly putting their bodies at risk. It has been proven that players can recover and even play on medication.

That makes sense. Guys drafted that late in the 1st don't need to make their debut right away, nor are expectations all that high for them. I'd be stoked with either a Cole or a Hamonic, to be honest, as I think a guy like that would perfectly round out a future top-4 of Makar/Girard/Byram/1st 2020. The Avs would be missing out on guys with higher upside, for sure, but unless they can pull a Pastrnak out of the end of the 1st, I'd rather go with a solidly projectable NHL-caliber player in that slot, as they haven't given me much confidence in drafting forwards outside of the top-10.

As for Cormier, maybe I'm being a size queen but I do want someone who can impose themselves physically against opposing forwards, especially if we're trading Z this offseason. There really wouldn't be anyone on the back end with a physical element to their game minus Byram, and I don't think he'll be using that physical edge for at least a while in the NHL. So let me just go ahead and add "physical" right behind "smarts" and "skating..."

Yeah I don't think expectations of later 1st and on picks should be high, but I just don't see limiting yourself from the get go with the safety margin is really a myth. For all the high floor guys that get talked about, the floor is really never as high as people say. They still bust at similar rates.

The Avs have plenty of players in the NHL and AHL that can play physical games. You can find them in free agency and trades with relative ease. It is harder to acquire skill, especially on defense. If you end up with too much skill (I'd argue there isn't such a thing), but you can then sell pieces off to fill holes elsewhere. I mean, just look at the Barrie trade. Barrie brought back Kadri. Say we get in a situation where there is a major hole in the lineup in 4 years and have Cormier pushing for Girard's role... well, Girard would be worth his weight in gold at that point. Three years left on a sweat heart deal... he'd bring back a high end top 6 forward or a similar, but different type of defensemen with ease. It allows a lot of flexibility and pieces to used in a trades.

How many of those defenseman with high floors actually make it and do well? Mainly when I think back of players that were advertised as a safe defenseman with a fairly high floor or without a standout ability... I can't think of many that panned out. In the recent drafts - Morin, Hagg, Mueller, Zboril, Larsson, Carlsson, Stanley (lul), are all pretty much busts.

Now obviously there are busts and i'm sure i'm missing some success stories, I honestly can't think of any though.

Yeah... it is myth that floats around. It took some rough lessons and some mentorship to get it to stick in my head... but it is a complete myth that there is safety in any prospect. Especially when you get out of the top 3 or 4.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Yeah I don't think expectations of later 1st and on picks should be high, but I just don't see limiting yourself from the get go with the safety margin is really a myth. For all the high floor guys that get talked about, the floor is really never as high as people say. They still bust at similar rates.

The Avs have plenty of players in the NHL and AHL that can play physical games. You can find them in free agency and trades with relative ease. It is harder to acquire skill, especially on defense. If you end up with too much skill (I'd argue there isn't such a thing), but you can then sell pieces off to fill holes elsewhere. I mean, just look at the Barrie trade. Barrie brought back Kadri. Say we get in a situation where there is a major hole in the lineup in 4 years and have Cormier pushing for Girard's role... well, Girard would be worth his weight in gold at that point. Three years left on a sweat heart deal... he'd bring back a high end top 6 forward or a similar, but different type of defensemen with ease. It allows a lot of flexibility and pieces to used in a trades.

Fair enough. I'm still trying to figure out what my overall philosophy is behind the draft now that the Avs are good again. It was so much easier to form opinions on players and what type of player should be taken when the team was always picking in the top-10. If they don't take Schneider, I'm kind of leaning towards one of Peterka or Reichel with the Avs pick right now. They might also be seen as safe picks, but they have more skill than Schneider does, so who knows.

As for your second point, that's a mindset I can get on board with. It's similar to what Nashville did with taking Fabbro despite having what was viewed as the best defense in the NHL at the time. They were able to package Girard in a trade for Turris and, while that trade didn't work out for them all that well, it still gave them the opportunity to do something like that. I do hope we trade Cormier over Girard, if all things are equal, though. I'm a sucker for some Sammy G and I doubt Cormier could ever hit the high notes like Sammy can.

 

[Richard88]

How do you guys feel about the potential of picking Hendrix Lapierre?

Center obviously isn't a priority, but if he's dropped to 27th do we go BPA and pick him, also in spite of his his concussion issues?

 

[McMetal]

I've watched barely any prospects this year, so I really couldn't say much about who I would want them to pick in the first given that none of the players I'm familiar with are going to be available. I would hope for a defenseman, because you can never have too many of those. But given that it seems to be a weak year for D, I kind of hope they take a big swing at a boom/bust forward. If they bust, our prospect pool can take the blow. If they break out and hit their ceiling, we have a key piece to be a part of our post-retool contention window.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Fair enough. I'm still trying to figure out what my overall philosophy is behind the draft now that the Avs are good again. It was so much easier to form opinions on players and what type of player should be taken when the team was always picking in the top-10. If they don't take Schneider, I'm kind of leaning towards one of Peterka or Reichel with the Avs pick right now. They might also be seen as safe picks, but they have more skill than Schneider does, so who knows.

As for your second point, that's a mindset I can get on board with. It's similar to what Nashville did with taking Fabbro despite having what was viewed as the best defense in the NHL at the time. They were able to package Girard in a trade for Turris and, while that trade didn't work out for them all that well, it still gave them the opportunity to do something like that. I do hope we trade Cormier over Girard, if all things are equal, though. I'm a sucker for some Sammy G and I doubt Cormier could ever hit the high notes like Sammy can.

Just as an aside, can you imagine if there was a team that could find forwards like Tampa does, and defensemen like Nashville? Monstrous

 

[Goulet17]

If the NHL draft is based on points percentage, it appears that the Avs will have the 29th pick, rather than the 27th. It is my understanding that the Avs lose the tie breaker with TB to fall to 29th.

 

[CB Joe]

If the NHL draft is based on points percentage, it appears that the Avs will have the 29th pick, rather than the 27th. It is my understanding that the Avs lose the tie breaker with TB to fall to 29th.

What are the tie breakers?

 

[Brett44]

For an RHD need what about Helge Grans?
William Villeneuve is very underrated vers completed two-way D men. We need a 2nd pick or 2. We need a power forward with top 6 potentiel. Neighbours,Foerster or Wiesblatt?

 

[Papa Francouz]

Just as an aside, can you imagine if there was a team that could find forwards like Tampa does, and defensemen like Nashville? Monstrous

I can. It’s gonna be the Avs over the next few years

 

[Goulet17]

What are the tie breakers?

I believe that it is based on RWs, but I am not certain on that.

 

[Wintersun]

How do you guys feel about the potential of picking Hendrix Lapierre?

Center obviously isn't a priority, but if he's dropped to 27th do we go BPA and pick him, also in spite of his his concussion issues?

Don't think he gets close to 27th on draft day. Some team will take a guess on him top 15ish.

 

[CB Joe]

How good is the second round of this draft? The Avs have no 2nd rounder and there are a lot of teams with multiple 2nd round picks. Would it be worth trading down?

Avs - 27
Ducks - 31, 36
Wings - 32, 51, 60
Sens - 33, 46, 52, 53
Sharks - 34, 58 *no 1st round pick
LA - 35, 48, 59
Preds - 37, 49
Habs - 39, 40, 61
Canes - 44, 54

 

[Richard88]

How good is the second round of this draft? The Avs have no 2nd rounder and there are a lot of teams with multiple 2nd round picks. Would it be worth trading down?

Avs - 27
Ducks - 31, 36
Wings - 32, 51, 60
Sens - 33, 46, 52, 53
Sharks - 34, 58 *no 1st round pick
LA - 35, 48, 59
Preds - 37, 49
Habs - 39, 40, 61
Canes - 44, 54

This idea has been discussed a bunch in a MTL trade thread on the main boards - the one about them potentially trading up with their 3 2nds.

I can definitely see a few of the teams you listed trying to move up to try to snag a higher ranked player, particularly these 3:

- Wings - they have 9 2nd round picks in the next 2 drafts, so it makes sense to consolidate their picks a bit to get higher quality over quantity.
- Sens - just like the Wings, should consolidate as they already have a deep prospect pool and also have 3 1sts this year.
- Habs - have a strong prospect pool, but lack that really high end elite prospect.

Maybe we can use Zadorov as a bargaining chip together with our 1st (#29) to pick up some extra 2nds. Detroit might be interested in him as they need LHD.

 

[henchman21]

It really depends on what you're looking for from the draft.... This draft is thin on high end defensemen (almost all are projects to varying degrees)... but solid on depth of those projects, center is fairly weak, wings are really strong... probably the strongest wing draft in the last 10 years. Goalie is really thin outside Askarov.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If we could get 32 + 60 or 33 + 53 I'd certainly move back.

Wouldnt want to go much further back than that though. I also still firmly believe the plan here for a while now has been to use Zadorov to get back into that 2nd round.


I look at a team like Detroit or Montreal with multiple 2nds and a need for Dmen as potential trading partners. 40th from Montreal or 51 + later pick from Detroit sort of deals.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I’d take whoever we can get in the first round.

The Avs could be trading 1st round picks away on a regular basis the next few years, might as well get as high-end a prospect as we can and keep the pick.

 

[CB Joe]

It really depends on what you're looking for from the draft.... This draft is thin on high end defensemen (almost all are projects to varying degrees)... but solid on depth of those projects, center is fairly weak, wings are really strong... probably the strongest wing draft in the last 10 years. Goalie is really thin outside Askarov.

Sounds like it could be beneficial for the Avs to move down then. Avs can afford to be patient with defensive prospects since there likely won't be much need in the NHL for a few seasons. I'd like to see more good forwards in the system and center isn't high priority with MacKinnon and Kadri/Newhook tying up the top 6 spots for the near future. Shame to hear about the goaltending. Avs could use a strong goalie prospect.