Speculation: The 2014-2015 Off-season Prediction Thread

[ChocolateLeclaire]

I don't think it's an understatement to think that this upcoming summer is the most critical in recent franchise history. There is no debating that this young squad took a big step backwards this year and changes need to happen. However, all this must happen under the specter of a team that doesn't supposedly doesn't have the financial resources to spend to like other teams in the NHL. The direction of the team will never be clearer after this summer as numerous players are approaching the final years of their contracts and decisions will need to be made on whether to re-sign them, trade them, or let them play out the year and/or trade them at the deadline.

This prediction thread is all about what you think the team WILL do, not what you want it to do. Try to address signings, trades, coaching/management moves and we'll see who comes the closest.

I'll start...

Bobby Ryan - I think he wants to stay, but I think the team won't be able to meet his salary and term demands. I feel he gets traded this offseason. If he does sign, it'll be $6.5 over 8 years

Jason Spezza - Contract negotiations will begin. I believe Jason wants linemates to work with so he will sit tight until after Free Agency is done with before negotiating. Team will push for a 5 year deal, he'll want the max 8.

Clarke MacArthur - Gets extended. Probably $5 million for 5 years.

Craig Anderson - I think he gets a modest extension at his current salary. A bridge for Lehner to be cushioned by. 2 more years are $3.5 million

Robin Lehner - Gets a bridge RFA contract, in the range of $1.5 to $2 million.

Eric Gryba - Also an RFA - I think he gets a 2 year deal bumping him to $2 million a year.

Ales Hemsky - as much as I want the team to re-sign him, I can't see him anywhere other than Pittsburgh on July 1. Sucks but he's a guy Shero wants to play with Crosby. Shero always gets what he wants and Pitts gives Hemsky a legit chance at the Cup.

Milan Michalek - Walks

Free Agency

Dan Boyle - I would hope that if Ottawa is serious about competing, a solid, veteran defenceman with offensive touch FROM OTTAWA would be a target if San Jose doesn't extend him.

Other targets will be Joni Pitkanen, Marek Zidlicky (Murray was interested in him at the trade deadline 3 years ago), and Henrik Tallinder. I don't see FAs like Niskanen, Benoit, or Anton Stralman making it to free agency.

Trades

I think Bobby Ryan gets moved. Just a hunch. I don't think they'll be able to come to a contract agreement and he'll have more value with a full year on his deal than he would at the deadline.

I also think Patrick Wiercoch gets moved. His low ice-time doesn't bode well for his future here. He won't get much back so he might be moved in a package deal.

Coaching

I think Maclean really needs to look back at the way he set this team. I think him and Murray have a very long talk about player usage and I think he has a short leash to start the year. If the team has a slow start out of the gate, he's gone. The coaching graveyard will get another victim.

Click to read more...

 

[Icelevel]

my unfortunate guess is that everyone re-signs. except hemsky.

prove me wrong BM. grow some balls.

 

[Six Assets]

Melnyk continues to be a stinge

 

[Benjamin]

Current Players
Ryan re-signs. 8 years, 6.25mil per.

Spezza will ask for a trade.

Hemsky will want too much money. Murray panics and re-signs Michalek 4 years, 4mil per.

MacArthur gets a 5 x 5 deal.

Lehner 2 years 1.5mil per.

Gryba 2 years 1.2mil per.


Free Agency
No money. No roster spots. Nothing happens.

Trades
Wiercioch will be traded. Not sure it what kind of deal.

Condra will be dumped for a late pick or AHLer.

Coaching
Melnyk would rather lose than pay for a fired coach and he loves his BFF Cameron.

No way Maclean is fired, as annoying as he is.

 

[fringie]

I would like to be in the minority here, I think we need to sit back and take a look at the big picture of what occurred this season. This team took a step back for sure, however, if when you go back to 2011 when this "rebuild/retool" process began, and someone says that this team is going to be miss the playoffs in one of the following 3 seasons, what would even any fan think? Unless you are completely irrational, you would say that is fine. We are going through a re-building phase, and there would be some pain along the way, no question about it.

With that being said, I think there needs to be a new leadership group established, this year clearly showed that this post-Alfie leader group is not cutting it. With Spezza having one year left on his contract, this is really the first time in a long while that he can be realistically traded, and fetch some decent return possibly.

Re-sign Hemsky.

Make Karlsson, MacArthur, Methot, Turris the new leadership group, keep Neil, Philips in the loop, but make sure they understand they are support guys now.

In addition, BM also needs to realize the game has changed, that the defence core Sens have are not suited to win consistently. Too many big, heavy, tough, slow guys in the back, needs 1 or possibly two more skilled, fast puck moving D to play the transition game. You can do this through trade or UFA.

Don't trade Cowen...not yet. His value is at all time low now, just stay put, and let him reset and come back.

Offer a long term contract to Ryan, 7 * 7 mil max, no more, if he does not resign, trade him.

This is not the time for panic, knee jerk reactions. Stay on the course, get younger, and build around the core. Move on from the old guard..Unfortunately, they had to re-sign Philips, disagree with that move, may end up buying him out though..

 

[pt_mck]

my unfortunate guess is that everyone re-signs. except hemsky.

prove me wrong BM. grow some balls.

qft

same coach --> same system,

same lazy don't give a shoot players attitude

same cheapskate owner

= cup contender?

 

[CarknerCountry]

Resign Hemskey

Trade Ryan for the Schenn Brothers

Trade Hoffman and Prince for Stewart.

Trade Spezza for Yandle and Boedker

Greening,Gryba,Condra for pics

Let Michalek walk

Mac Turris Boedker
Hemskey Schenn Stewart
Lazar Zibby Stone
?? Smith Niel

Methot Karlsson
Schenn Yandle
Cowen Ceci
Phillips <------ will never happen

 

[MiscBrah]

This summer is extremely important. The decisions made will determine our future as a team for the next 5+ years, are we going to be making deep runs in the playoffs or on the outside looking in?

If you handcuff yourself with too many long term NTC contracts to underperforming players it can spell death for a franchise.

 

[King Karlsson]

Current Players
Ryan re-signs. 8 years, 6.25mil per.

Spezza will ask for a trade.

Hemsky will want too much money. Murray panics and re-signs Michalek 4 years, 4mil per.

MacArthur gets a 5 x 5 deal.

Lehner 2 years 1.5mil per.

Gryba 2 years 1.2mil per.


Free Agency
No money. No roster spots. Nothing happens.

Trades
Wiercioch will be traded. Not sure it what kind of deal.

Condra will be dumped for a late pick or AHLer.

Coaching
Melnyk would rather lose than pay for a fired coach and he loves his BFF Cameron.

No way Maclean is fired, as annoying as he is.

Is Murray an idiot? What reason is there for him to do this.

 

[Benjamin]

Is Murray an idiot? What reason is there for him to do this.

There are better and younger options that need to be in the NHL.

Its either Condra or Neil. I prefer Condra but obviously Murray prefers Neil.

 

[saskriders]

Well, I would say first off we have to identify who we for sure want to keep, and would only trade for a significant upgrade in that role. To me that is

xxx-Spezza-Hemsky
MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
xxx-Zibanejad-xxx
xxx-Smith-Neil
Pageau, Stone

xxx-Karlsson
Methot-Ceci
xxx-xxx

Anderson
Lehner

That leaves Michalek, Condra, Greening, Hoffman, Da Costa, Kassian, Cowen, Phillips, Wiercioch, Gryba, Borowiecki, Hammond, and Lawson as players who played at least one game this year that aren't on the list, and need to be looked at more closely.

Michalek: Knee injuries seem to have caught up with him, he is just taking up a spot that a prospect could use to learn, let him walk

Condra: Not as good as he was in the past, still decent on the PK despite the team being terrible on the PK, try to package in a trade but if we can't he can stay

Greening: Pains me to say it as a fan of him since his rookie year, but a big decline. Being on GSN has hurt him for sure, but he doesn't have any offensive touch he used to. Trade him in a package if you can, but if nobody will take his contract then scratch him the first few games in a desperate attempt he will turn his game around. Too bad, we could use a 2011-2012 Greening on this team.

Hoffman: Has shown good signs in the NHL level, but still can't seem to score. Keep him, but don't be afraid to add him to a trade package for something better

Da Costa: Still can't seem to find a place on the team despite some strong NHL play. Try to find a trading partner that will take him in a package, and it will be better for everyone

Kassian: Meh, he has his role and he plays it well enough. No point getting rid of him unless something better comes along

Cowen: Disappointing to see him struggle this year, but he still has lot's of potential. Keep him in hopes he bounces back

Phillips: Terrible contract, unlikely a team will take him, and he has a limited NTC anyways. Try to play him in a 6/7 role with limited minutes, and if it gets bad enough consider a buy out

Wiercioch: I like him a lot, but unfortunately for him he might be in an odd man out sort of position on the blue line. I would like to see him be the guy that usually plays, other than the odd game that Phillips plays.

Gryba: Has been decent defensively. Wouldn't mind bringing him back, but there is still the fact that we have 7 dman and desperately need and upgrade. Probably should trade him, and open a spot up for Wiercioch.

Borowiecki: Has some potential, but isn't there yet. Keep in Bingo unless a good trade is offered

Hammond: Keep in Bingo unless a good trade is offered

Lawson: Keep in Bingo unless a good trade is offered

That brings us to

xxx-Spezza-Hemsky
MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
xxx-Zibanejad-xxx
xxx-Smith-Neil
Pageau, Stone

xxx-Karlsson
Methot-Ceci
Cowen-Wiercioch
Philips

Anderson
Lehner

The biggest hole there is the first d pairing and we should try to fill that in the free agency. I would say MacDonald is my first choice, and looking on the Flyers board they seem happy with him. There are other UFA d-men though.

For the four winger holes I would like to try to make one trade for a top or 3rd liner, and let our prospects fill the rest. Play traded player with Spezza, play Stone, with Zibanejad give Pageau a chance on the wing, give Lazar the 9 game try out. If a trade can't be made play Hammond for the first couple weeks, then give Greening one last chance after being scratched a few games. If he doesn't play like 2011-2012 Greening then buy him out.

That leaves us with something like this


Traded Player/Stone-Spezza-Hemsky
MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
Pageau-Zibanejad-Hammond/Greening/Stone
Lazar-Smith-Neil
Hammond/Greening

MacDonald-Karlsson
Methot-Ceci
Cowen-Wiercioch
Philips

Anderson
Lehner

 

[BigRig4]

UFA/Trade-Spezza-Hemsky
Mac-Turris-Ryan
Hoffman-Zbad-Stone
Greening-Smith-Condra (Neil)

UFA/Trade-Karlsson
Methot-Ceci
Cowen-UFA/Trade (Borowiecki)

Andy
Lehner

I think for the bottom pairing D man, we could do a move similar to what NYR did earlier this year with Del Zotto and deal Wiercioch for a player with less upside but who is more solid right away. I'd try to sign McDonald in free agency to pair in the top line. Call me crazy but from what I've seen this season I think Ceci can be a #4 with a really good partner like Methot. As for the winger to pair with Spezza, I can't see us signing another UFA after McDonald so it will probably have to be through a trade and be an average player which is a shame cause Moulson would look great on that line. Also, the 4th line might be worth a look because they've shown promise when they were together this year although it wasn't for many games. It's just hard when they have Neil or Kassian on their line, might as well play with the 2 guys in the offensive zone. Drop Kassian, Neil can play his role for when we play the tougher teams.

 

[sebas85]

Hoffman: Has shown good signs in the NHL level, but still can't seem to score. Keep him, but don't be afraid to add him to a trade package for something better

Da Costa: Still can't seem to find a place on the team despite some strong NHL play. Try to find a trading partner that will take him in a package, and it will be better for everyone

Cowen: Disappointing to see him struggle this year, but he still has lot's of potential. Keep him in hopes he bounces back

Gryba: Has been decent defensively. Wouldn't mind bringing him back, but there is still the fact that we have 7 dman and desperately need and upgrade. Probably should trade him, and open a spot up for Wiercioch.

Borowiecki: Has some potential, but isn't there yet. Keep in Bingo unless a good trade is offered

Lawson: Keep in Bingo unless a good trade is offered

Hoffman: Has played sub 20 games, 24 years old? and is showing some pretty strong offensive skill on one of the worst teams in the NHL. Not sure why he would be relegated to a throw in for a potential trade. What more do you expect from him at this point in his NHL career?

Da Costa: Should probably be in the NHL right. Since sens started pissing away the season Ive been watching Bingo games. He is an NHL player. In another organization with less depth down the middle I'm betting he would be full time or much more close to full time then he is here.

Gryba: Has proven himself pretty competent in the right role. He has basically played himself back into the D depth chart. Not sure why it would make sense to deal a guy who has improved his own position to make room for a guy (weircoch) who is obviously in the dog house and probably not even in future plans anymore.

Borowiecki: Teams don't give out 1 ways for fun. He basically had zero negotiating leverage this summer, so its pretty clear the team offered him that one way without much negotiation. I'm guessing that the organization has plans for him. Along with dacosta he has looked really really strong in Bingo's past 5 or 6.

Lawson: 30+ goalie who is UFA. I doubt he just lets himself get shipped to Bingo unless it is a seriously juicy 2 way deal.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Honestly, I don't even want to see Murray handle this team.

We need a GM with balls because this team needs change of identity fast or else we will crumble again next year.

Actually, you know what? Maybe that's not bad idea with McDavid in the wings.

Trade Spezza and Ryan sign MacArthur, Hemsky, Gryba, Lehner. Let Michalek walk.

If we suck then we get McDavid. If we don't that means Ottawa's young guns stepped up to the plate.

 

[saskriders]

14 teams will have a chance for McDavid. It won't be like tanking for Daigle

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

14 teams will have a chance for McDavid. It won't be like tanking for Daigle

If we finish near last we'll still get potential star in Eichel or the other guy. And 50% chance at McDavid.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Spezza $6.0 X 5YRS ( Captains Discount )
Ryan $6.5 X 3 YRS
Methot $3.75 X 5 ( Hometown Discount )
Hemsky ( goes to Tampa ) Drouin - Stamkos - Hesmky ..............
Michalek (goes to Phoenix)
Lehner $2.0 X 2 (Bridge Deal)
Anderson (stay the course, let him use the last year of his contract)
Gryba $2.0 X 4 (low amounts of RD in org, gryba has potential to be solid top 4 player for a cheap price )
DaCosta ( goes and plays somewhere else )
Hoffman $1.5 1YR (Season to prove himself some more)

 

[SilverSeven]

Im not gonna make line up predictions, though I will post what I hope we see.

Hoffman - Spezza - Hemsky
Mac - Turris - Ryan

Is the top 6 I want. I want our prospects to fight for time on line 3 with Zibanejad.

Greening/Condra - Smith - Neil is our 4th line. They need to be reigned in on the penalty front or be sat.

I think our young D will be better next year. I think a lot of this years problems can be blamed on them being young.

Methot - Karlsson
Cowen - Ceci
Phillips - Dogfight between 40 prospects for this last spot.

I honestly think we will be much closer to our expectations of 9 months ago next year. This team just showed how young it is this year. We really NEED Hemsky though. He makes that Spezza line click, and that makes our top 6 dangerous.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

What do the Senators do if players like Spezza, Methot and Ryan decide they dont want to negotiate till after next season.

You'd think Sens brass would have to seriously consider trading them.

Its going to be a very interesting year.

 

[SilverSeven]

I cant imagine Methot wants out. He is from here. He still lives in the south end even. His family and friends are all here, and he has been very well received by the fans. Not to mention he is getting to play with the best defencemen in the league nearly every night.

Spezza is pretty dedicated to this team IMO. We shall see though.

Ryan...who knows. He says all the right things to fans though. When I spoke to him he seemed very genuine about wanting to stay.

Im most worried about Hemsky. Why the hell would he want to stay here? He has shown that all he needs is a legit shot at top line minutes, so surely another team will offer him that in the summer.

 

[aragorn]

Players have contracts so unless trades are made or players bought out I think people will be upset as to who is still on the team next season. I'm not a fan of Phillips but he just signed a 2 yr contract so we can expect him to be on the team & if this yr is any indication he will likely be on that 2nd pairing with Ceci next yr ... again.

I think BM makes one deal this summer with TM & they re-sign Hemsky & Kassian but allow Michalek to walk. I think the defence remains the same minus Wiercioch if he is traded.

To Buff: Hoffman LW, Wiercoch LD & Condra RW
To Ott: Chris Stewart RW

Hemsky - Spezza - Stewart
MacArthur - Turris - Ryan
Greening - Zibanejad - Stone
Z. Smith - Grant - Neil/Kassian

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Players have contracts so unless trades are made or players bought out I think people will be upset as to who is still on the team next season. I'm not a fan of Phillips but he just signed a 2 yr contract so we can expect him to be on the team & if this yr is any indication he will likely be on that 2nd pairing with Ceci next yr ... again.

I think BM makes one deal this summer with TM & they re-sign Hemsky & Kassian but allow Michalek to walk.

To Buff: Hoffman LW, Wiercoch LD & Condra RW
To Ott: Chris Stewart RW

Hemsky - Spezza - Stewart
MacArthur - Turris - Ryan
Greening - Zibanejad - Stone
Z. Smith - Grant - Neil/Kassian

If the Sens make one major addition this summer they desperately need it to be a defenseman.

I'll be more then happy if they can keep Hemsky and go with the status quo up front, perhaps a youngster breaks in from bingo and looks good in the top six as long as they can bring in some legit help on the blueline.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

I cant imagine Methot wants out. He is from here. He still lives in the south end even. His family and friends are all here, and he has been very well received by the fans. Not to mention he is getting to play with the best defencemen in the league nearly every night.

Spezza is pretty dedicated to this team IMO. We shall see though.

Ryan...who knows. He says all the right things to fans though. When I spoke to him he seemed very genuine about wanting to stay.

Im most worried about Hemsky. Why the hell would he want to stay here? He has shown that all he needs is a legit shot at top line minutes, so surely another team will offer him that in the summer.

If i were a betting man I'd consider Methot to be a lock to stay, its just a hypothetical. The Sens could survive not bringing Hemsky back, although not nearly as dangerous, but if more than a couple of those UFAs decide not to sign extensions during the season it puts management in a very difficult position with big big decisions to make.

 

[Benjamin]

Im most worried about Hemsky. Why the hell would he want to stay here? He has shown that all he needs is a legit shot at top line minutes, so surely another team will offer him that in the summer.

Does he want to risk going to a team that doesn't use him probably, like Edmonton?

He's proving that he fits quite well here and the coaches are using him correcly. I bet he takes the first reasonable offer he gets from Murray.

 

[saskriders]

Gryba: Has proven himself pretty competent in the right role. He has basically played himself back into the D depth chart. Not sure why it would make sense to deal a guy who has improved his own position to make room for a guy (weircoch) who is obviously in the dog house and probably not even in future plans anymore.

I like Gryba quite a bit, I just don't know if this team will carry 8 defenceman again. I guess it is possible, though I would like to see Wiercioch have an increased role