The 2013 Dallas Stars Projection Thread
- Thread starter Zrhutch
- Start date
Magic Mittens
Registered User
CRSeven
Ballon d'Or 2013
TangoMcBride
Registered User
Whitney averages are posted. If you guys want, we can now use this thread to post projections for goalies and callups, as well as the nonfactors we left off.
Also, for those interested in the GPG... we are exactly at 3 goals a game. Which would fit a high flying team with little defense if you think about it.
Also, for those interested in the GPG... we are exactly at 3 goals a game. Which would fit a high flying team with little defense if you think about it.
Only 6 teams had a G/G over 3.0 last season, and only 3 teams in 2011-2012. I don't see us doing that, so we most likely over-estimated some goal scoring somewhere.
And now I shall put some potential lines together with our projected scoring #'s to see how things look:
JAMIE BENN: 77 GP/32 G/42 A/74 P - TYLER SEGUIN: 78 GP/30 G/46 A/76 P - RICH PEVERLEY: 75 GP/17 G/25 A/42 P
RAY WHITNEY: 68 GP/19 G/40 A/59 P - CODY EAKIN: 79 GP/16 G/26 A/42 P - ALEX CHIASSON: 67 GP/20 G/21 A/41 P
VALERI NICHUSHKIN: 73 GP/22 G/20 A/42 P - SHAWN HORCOFF: 75 GP/14 G/21 A/35 P - ERIK COLE: 75 GP/19 G/20 A/39 P
ANTOINE ROUSSEL: 70 GP/9 G/13 A/22 P - VERNON FIDDLER: 76 GP/6 G/13 A/19 P - ?
____________
BRENDEN DILLON: 80 GP/6 G/18 A/24 P - ALEX GOLIGOSKI: 70 GP/10 G/30 A/40 P
TREVOR DALEY: 79 GP/7 G/18 A/25 P - SERGEI GONCHAR: 69 GP/11 G/28 A/39 P
KEVIN CONNAUTON: 61 GP/5 G/13 A/18 P - STEPHANE ROBIDAS: 65 GP/3 G/14 A/17 P
JAMIE BENN: 77 GP/32 G/42 A/74 P - TYLER SEGUIN: 78 GP/30 G/46 A/76 P - RICH PEVERLEY: 75 GP/17 G/25 A/42 P
RAY WHITNEY: 68 GP/19 G/40 A/59 P - CODY EAKIN: 79 GP/16 G/26 A/42 P - ALEX CHIASSON: 67 GP/20 G/21 A/41 P
VALERI NICHUSHKIN: 73 GP/22 G/20 A/42 P - SHAWN HORCOFF: 75 GP/14 G/21 A/35 P - ERIK COLE: 75 GP/19 G/20 A/39 P
ANTOINE ROUSSEL: 70 GP/9 G/13 A/22 P - VERNON FIDDLER: 76 GP/6 G/13 A/19 P - ?
____________
BRENDEN DILLON: 80 GP/6 G/18 A/24 P - ALEX GOLIGOSKI: 70 GP/10 G/30 A/40 P
TREVOR DALEY: 79 GP/7 G/18 A/25 P - SERGEI GONCHAR: 69 GP/11 G/28 A/39 P
KEVIN CONNAUTON: 61 GP/5 G/13 A/18 P - STEPHANE ROBIDAS: 65 GP/3 G/14 A/17 P
^ That reminds me a lot of the 05-06 Sabres... Not many standout offensive numbers, but a ton of guys at 40-50 points.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005–06_Buffalo_Sabres_season
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005–06_Buffalo_Sabres_season
GlassesJacketShirt
Registered User
It's possible, but consider this another way: take one goal off every player listed, and it suddenly becomes 2.64 GPG. It's not that far off.
Personally, I would put Cole a bit lower, take off one or two from Benn, a few from Nichuskhin.
SonicSpeedDash
All bets are off
KriminellPipa
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2013
- 119
- 0
I think we have overrated Seguins first year as a top line centerman, as well as Nichushkins rookie-year. Really hope I'm wrong though.
Yeah. I think we did a good job overall of projecting each player in a range that is possible and not ridiculously high. But odds are there are going to be a couple of guys who have disappointing seasons(like Loui last year) and could be wrong on how some young guys produce out of the gate. What we have is a best case scenario that's reasonable.
KriminellPipa
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2013
- 119
- 0
True! But who knows, Seguin might flourish and Whitney decline massivley. Everything can happen, but all-in-all we did good!
ginblossoms
Registered User
yeah. all in all, numbers seem pretty reasonable. to accommodate any bias, enforce a 10% haircut to the goal totals and things become even more practical... 2.7 goals/game... that was around the median for team goals last season.
We'll be a quarter through the season by the end of the night, so I figured it'd be as good a time as any to revisit these.
I've been really impressed with production from Chiasson and Dillon off the top of my head. Obviously Benn and Seguin too, but that's obvious.
Sadly, I'm kind of disappointed in KConn, although through no fault of his own. As long as Jordie stays this way, I'm fine with sitting Connauton.
Whose impressed/disappointed you guys so far?
I've been really impressed with production from Chiasson and Dillon off the top of my head. Obviously Benn and Seguin too, but that's obvious.
Sadly, I'm kind of disappointed in KConn, although through no fault of his own. As long as Jordie stays this way, I'm fine with sitting Connauton.
Whose impressed/disappointed you guys so far?
WhoahNow
WhatsApp lead the way
- Sep 7, 2011
- 2,864
- 1,366
Since its approximately a quarter of the way through the season I decided to look at the points per game stats for the predicted totals we did before the season started and what they are currently at now.
Player - Preseason predicted ppg - Current pace - (Better, worse, or about same than than predicted)
Benn, Jamie - 0.96 - 1.15 - (Better)
Terrific start to the season for the new Stars captain. Paired with Seguin, he has put himself in consideration for team Canada.
Benn, Jordie - 0.289 - 0.250 - (Little worse)
Was only predicted to play 19 games with 0.5 Goals, 5 Assists (Averaged numbers). Currently at 20 games with 1 Goal and 4 Assists. Probably biggest surprise performance so far in his defensive play.
Chiasson, Alex - 0.547 - 0.600 - (Little better)
Hot then cold start to the season for him. No one really sure how he would continue after last year, but still able to produce.
Cole, Erik - 0.520 - .300 - (Worse)
Hasn't really been able to get any production going no matter where played in the lineup.
Connauton, Kevin - .295 - 0.00 - (Worse, I guess)
Was predicted to play 61 games with 5 Goals and 13 Assists. Currently at 1 game played and no points. Hasn't really gotten a fair shake yet.
Daley, Trevor - .316 - .200 - (Worse)
Pretty modest expectations for Daley, but so far most of the D corps has been off to rocky starts including Daley.
Dillon, Brenden - .300 - .400 - (Better)
One of the sole bright spots on the blueline for predictions. Dillon expected to bring more defence than offence, but he has proved capable of helping generate offence as well.
Eakin, Cody - 0.532 - .500 - (Little worse)
Pretty much on target for Eakin so far this year as the Stars #2 center. Will be relied upon to continue to produce.
Fiddler, Vernon - 0.250 - 0.250 - (Same)
Right on the money for Fiddler in what we expected for him. Although he is looking for a bigger role.
Goligoski, Alex - 0.571 - 0.316/B] - (Worse)
Horrible start to the year for Goligoski, he seems to be turning it around lately as far as points go.
Gonchar, Sergei - 0.561 - 0.300 - (Worse)
Same as Goligoski, the two were awful at the start of the year; however, He is still struggling.
Horcoff, Shawn - 0.467 - 0.250 - (Worse)
Another veteran who is off to a questionable start to the season.
Nichushkin, Valeri - 0.575 - 0.421 - (Worse)
Started off really slow playing with cold veteran players, but since the move to the top line with Benn and Seguin has fit in nicely and started to get some points on the table.
Peverly, Rich - 0.560 - 0.474 - (Worse)
Slightly worse for Peverley, but seeing as he is not being exclusively used in a top 6 role as most of us predicted, he isn't far off.
Robidas, Stephane - 0.262 - 0.150 - (Worse)
I've actually thought Robidas has been pretty solid this year so far, just not as far as points are concerned though.
Roussel, Antoine - 0.314 - 0.300 - (Little worse)
Actually pretty close to predicted so far. Not much expected from Roussel production wise, but its nice when he can chip in a few points.
Seguin, Tyler - 0.974 - 1.15 - (Better)
Better start than what I would have predicted moving from wing to top line center. So far unbelievable chemistry with Jamie Benn.
Whitney, Ray - 0.868 - 0.471 - (Worse)
Age may have finally caught up to the Wizard as he hasn't looked as sharp or quick when healthy.
Math may be off a little on some of them, but whatever haha. Seems like a lot of cold starts for veteran players, whereas the young guys have played pretty well or as expected.
Edit: Wrong thread, should probably move this to the predictions one. Thanks
Player - Preseason predicted ppg - Current pace - (Better, worse, or about same than than predicted)
Benn, Jamie - 0.96 - 1.15 - (Better)
Terrific start to the season for the new Stars captain. Paired with Seguin, he has put himself in consideration for team Canada.
Benn, Jordie - 0.289 - 0.250 - (Little worse)
Was only predicted to play 19 games with 0.5 Goals, 5 Assists (Averaged numbers). Currently at 20 games with 1 Goal and 4 Assists. Probably biggest surprise performance so far in his defensive play.
Chiasson, Alex - 0.547 - 0.600 - (Little better)
Hot then cold start to the season for him. No one really sure how he would continue after last year, but still able to produce.
Cole, Erik - 0.520 - .300 - (Worse)
Hasn't really been able to get any production going no matter where played in the lineup.
Connauton, Kevin - .295 - 0.00 - (Worse, I guess)
Was predicted to play 61 games with 5 Goals and 13 Assists. Currently at 1 game played and no points. Hasn't really gotten a fair shake yet.
Daley, Trevor - .316 - .200 - (Worse)
Pretty modest expectations for Daley, but so far most of the D corps has been off to rocky starts including Daley.
Dillon, Brenden - .300 - .400 - (Better)
One of the sole bright spots on the blueline for predictions. Dillon expected to bring more defence than offence, but he has proved capable of helping generate offence as well.
Eakin, Cody - 0.532 - .500 - (Little worse)
Pretty much on target for Eakin so far this year as the Stars #2 center. Will be relied upon to continue to produce.
Fiddler, Vernon - 0.250 - 0.250 - (Same)
Right on the money for Fiddler in what we expected for him. Although he is looking for a bigger role.
Goligoski, Alex - 0.571 - 0.316/B] - (Worse)
Horrible start to the year for Goligoski, he seems to be turning it around lately as far as points go.
Gonchar, Sergei - 0.561 - 0.300 - (Worse)
Same as Goligoski, the two were awful at the start of the year; however, He is still struggling.
Horcoff, Shawn - 0.467 - 0.250 - (Worse)
Another veteran who is off to a questionable start to the season.
Nichushkin, Valeri - 0.575 - 0.421 - (Worse)
Started off really slow playing with cold veteran players, but since the move to the top line with Benn and Seguin has fit in nicely and started to get some points on the table.
Peverly, Rich - 0.560 - 0.474 - (Worse)
Slightly worse for Peverley, but seeing as he is not being exclusively used in a top 6 role as most of us predicted, he isn't far off.
Robidas, Stephane - 0.262 - 0.150 - (Worse)
I've actually thought Robidas has been pretty solid this year so far, just not as far as points are concerned though.
Roussel, Antoine - 0.314 - 0.300 - (Little worse)
Actually pretty close to predicted so far. Not much expected from Roussel production wise, but its nice when he can chip in a few points.
Seguin, Tyler - 0.974 - 1.15 - (Better)
Better start than what I would have predicted moving from wing to top line center. So far unbelievable chemistry with Jamie Benn.
Whitney, Ray - 0.868 - 0.471 - (Worse)
Age may have finally caught up to the Wizard as he hasn't looked as sharp or quick when healthy.
Math may be off a little on some of them, but whatever haha. Seems like a lot of cold starts for veteran players, whereas the young guys have played pretty well or as expected.
Edit: Wrong thread, should probably move this to the predictions one. Thanks
Stars99Lobo37
Registered User
Edit: Wrong thread, should probably move this to the predictions one. Oops
Taken care of
Pohlow
Registered User
Spotty 2 Hotty
Special teams, special plays, special players
Well, I only actually contributed 5 predictions and so far I'm doing well (aside from Peverley's numbers). First is predicted, then actual.
Roussel
GP: 70
G: 9
A: 11
P: 20
GP: 62
G: 10
A: 11
P: 21
Peverley
GP: 72
G: 21
A: 24
P 45
GP: 61
G: 7
A: 20
P: 27
Nichushkin
GP: 58
G: 12
A: 16
P: 28
GP: 59
G: 13
A: 16
P: 29
Chiasson
GP: 66
G: 14
A: 11
P: 25
GP: 61
G: 10
A: 16
P: 26
Jordie
GP: 52
G: 3
A: 8
P: 11
+/-: +3
GP: 58
G: 3
A: 10
P: 13
+/-: +11
I'm fairly pleased with my assessment for Jordie considering the average. And I even listed my numbers as a bold prediction! lol
Roussel
GP: 70
G: 9
A: 11
P: 20
GP: 62
G: 10
A: 11
P: 21
Peverley
GP: 72
G: 21
A: 24
P 45
GP: 61
G: 7
A: 20
P: 27
Nichushkin
GP: 58
G: 12
A: 16
P: 28
GP: 59
G: 13
A: 16
P: 29
Chiasson
GP: 66
G: 14
A: 11
P: 25
GP: 61
G: 10
A: 16
P: 26
Jordie
GP: 52
G: 3
A: 8
P: 11
+/-: +3
GP: 58
G: 3
A: 10
P: 13
+/-: +11
I'm fairly pleased with my assessment for Jordie considering the average. And I even listed my numbers as a bold prediction! lol
Hull Fan
The Future is Now
Speaking of projections, can we take a minute to see into our crystal ball and look at next year's lineup?
I seriously doubt they're going to run amok at FA and bring in 3 or more new guys. Not when Sceviour, McKenzie, Ritchie, Glennie, etc are knocking on the door. That said the defense obviously needs some work, Peverley's health is in the air, Cole may have value elsewhere, etc. Throw out your wild ass speculative lineup with any interesting trades or FA options.
Benn-Seguin-Nichushkin
Cole-Sceviour-Chiasson
Roussel-Glennie-Raymond
McKenzie-Horcoff-Garbutt
Mueller
Dillon-Edler
Goligoski-Fayne
Benn-Connauton
Gonchar
Lehtonen
Thomas
Dallas signs Mason Raymond for 3 years 6.6 million dollars (2.2 cap hit)
Dallas signs Mark Fayne 4 years 14.8 million dollars (3.7 cap hit)
Dallas trades Cody Eakin, Jamie Oleksiak, and Radek Faska to Vancouver for Alex Edler and Vancouver's 3rd round pick 2014.
I seriously doubt they're going to run amok at FA and bring in 3 or more new guys. Not when Sceviour, McKenzie, Ritchie, Glennie, etc are knocking on the door. That said the defense obviously needs some work, Peverley's health is in the air, Cole may have value elsewhere, etc. Throw out your wild ass speculative lineup with any interesting trades or FA options.
Benn-Seguin-Nichushkin
Cole-Sceviour-Chiasson
Roussel-Glennie-Raymond
McKenzie-Horcoff-Garbutt
Mueller
Dillon-Edler
Goligoski-Fayne
Benn-Connauton
Gonchar
Lehtonen
Thomas
Dallas signs Mason Raymond for 3 years 6.6 million dollars (2.2 cap hit)
Dallas signs Mark Fayne 4 years 14.8 million dollars (3.7 cap hit)
Dallas trades Cody Eakin, Jamie Oleksiak, and Radek Faska to Vancouver for Alex Edler and Vancouver's 3rd round pick 2014.
Starry Knight
Tele-Wyatt
No Raymond please. He isn't as good as his stat line shows. He is a puck hog that constantly turns the puck over. Kills all possession the leafs can muster up.
Hull Fan
The Future is Now
I'm open to Goc, Legwand or whomever for a 3rd line center or winger. I just plucked a name that sounded interesting and could skate. Honestly beyond Fayne and hopefully someone like Edler I'm not too concerned as far as forwards go. Peverely could play. McKenzie can seize his chance. Ritchie may demand a spot to start next year. A guy who can win faceoffs and pk would be good or shooting for the moon in Stastny or Grabovski even better but I'm not counting on that.
As a secondary consideration if you had to choose trade Campbell or trade Oleksiak to bring in a defender, which would you choose?
As a secondary consideration if you had to choose trade Campbell or trade Oleksiak to bring in a defender, which would you choose?
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