The 1st pick of the 2nd round is cursed

[illpucks]

That was the most they could get. And its better than what they gave Ottawa for Hoffman.

Boedker is proven NHL player

 

[MessierII]

I think it’s a mix of what people have been saying bad organizations etc but also the fact that guys who fall out of the first round are already trending down before they’re even drafted.

 

[93LEAFS]

Aside from people already knowledgeable in the statistical percentages, why is this a surprise?

Pick 31, 32, etc. are (generally) draft picks of the worst teams, and a logical presumption can be made that the team in question is not a good team, likely through bad management/development of the other assets under their wing.

With that general assumption in mind, I would not be surprised to learn picks 40-60 have historically had only a slightly worse success rate as the teams making the selection may be organizations with stronger management and better scouting/development personnel.

So on and so forth for the remaining rounds.

To be honest, I don't think any team really consistently hits outside the 1st with any regularity, especially in the 2nd. You have teams that do better than most like Anaheim or Tampa, but they still take a bunch of players who never pan out in the 2nd. If any team could hit 50% in the 2nd round in regards to getting a top 9 forward, top 4 defender or starting goalie, they would be probably the best drafting team in the league. Anaheim is pretty close.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

People dramatically overvalue the expected return of picks. If I told the fans of teams that are picking between 20 and 31 that there is less than a coin flips chance of them becoming a somewhat valuable piece long-term (top 9F, Top 4D, Starting goalie) they'd think I was being an extreme pessimist.

This is why I think teams who have a legit shot at a cup trade first rounders to put themselves over the top.

 

[93LEAFS]

This is why I think teams who have a legit shot at a cup trade first rounders to put themselves over the top.

It makes sense from a value standpoint, but you do it too often you end up with a completely depleted system like the Rangers until last year. Which creates a need to hit on the long-shots.

 

[SotasicA]

It's incredible how poorly kids picked in that draft position have done, the 1st pick of the 3rd round has been much more successful.

look at this detritus from that position since 1995, i left out the past 6 or 7 years since players still might make it.

Ottawa Marc Moro
Buffalo Cory Sarich
Boston Ben Clymer
Colorado Ramzi Abid
Washington Michal Sivek
Atlanta Ilja Nikulin
Phoenix Matthew Spiller
Edmonton Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers
Carolina Danny Richmond
Pittsburgh Johannes Salmonsson
Anaheim Brendan Mikkelson
St. Louis Tomas Kana
Buffalo T.J. Brennan
Florida Jacob Markstrom
NY Islanders Mikko Koskinen
Edmonton Tyler Pitlick
Edmonton David Musil

That doesn't actually look too bad. Is the previous pick so much better? There's at least a couple of NHLers in that group. I don't think you should be expecting NHLers too often with a pick that low.

Certainly not impact players. Late 1st rounders are seriously overrated among fans.

 

[Alwalys]

So what was SJ thinking in getting a 2nd for Hoffman? A 60pt player vs a player that will likely never reach the NHL

they were thinking how much it's going to cost to add tavares and kovalchuk

 

[boredmale]

That doesn't actually look too bad. Is the previous pick so much better? There's at least a couple of NHLers in that group. I don't think you should be expecting NHLers too often with a pick that low.

Just looked it up and here is the highlights

Gomez(98)
Jim Slater (2002)
Brock Nelson(2010)
Rickard Rackall (2011)

Even though the other guy stopped at 2011, in 2012 LA picked Tanner Pearson(30) and Columbus picked Oscar Dansk(31)

 

[FerrisRox]

He was selected by Toronto with the first pick of the 2nd round in 2016 and it was a surprise pick since he previously went undrafted.

You realize that 99 percent of the players drafted at any position in the draft "previously went undrafted" right?

 

[Voight]

There was a lot of hype around Musil in his draft year.

He was a potential lottery pick at one point.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Whats wrong with Mikko Koskinen?

goalies take awhile to develop and he's been great for Finland and has now signed with the Oilers after having been one of the KHLs best goalies.

That's not "bad" for a second round pick.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Just looked it up and here is the highlights

Gomez(98)
Jim Slater (2002)
Brock Nelson(2010)
Rickard Rackall (2011)

Even though the other guy stopped at 2011, in 2012 LA picked Tanner Pearson(30) and Columbus picked Oscar Dansk(31)

Pearson's a full time NHLer which is good for a 31st pick.

In other words the 1st pick of the second round isnt "cursed" it's just hard to predict players

 

[alko]

Yeah, something is wrong about first pick in second round. Even if you go back to 1963, there only few stars or very good players:

Rick Smith (D), Greg Malone (F) Steve Payne (F) Adam Graves (F) Adam Foote (D) and Ray Whitney (F).

 

[Crede777]

How dare you besmirch the good name of Cory Sarich.

Had he worked a little harder in his draft year maybe he would have been taken in the 1st round rather than outside the 1st round with the plebs.

 

[olli]

Boedker is proven NHL player

He is, but San Jose had too many top 9 forwards, and they needed to shed some cap space to go after Tavares.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

It makes sense from a value standpoint, but you do it too often you end up with a completely depleted system like the Rangers until last year. Which creates a need to hit on the long-shots.

That's where teams really need to be honest about their chances. Winnipeg for example knew their squad was among the truly elite in the NHL and we're right to use their first round pick to add Stastny.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

You realize that 99 percent of the players drafted at any position in the draft "previously went undrafted" right?

I'm pretty sure by undrafted he means the player was a re-entry and had gone an entire draft without being selected.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You realize that 99 percent of the players drafted at any position in the draft "previously went undrafted" right?

I'm pretty sure by undrafted he means the player was a re-entry and had gone an entire draft without being selected.

That's exactly what I meant, because Korshkov was an overager and considered to be a surprise pick at the top of the 2nd round based on that.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

That's exactly what I meant, because Korshkov was an overager and considered to be a surprise pick at the top of the 2nd round based on that.

It happens. I remember the Oilers selected Jarett Stoll as a re-entry with the 36th pick in the 02 draft. He wasn't passed over though in his original draft year. He was selected by the Flames and just didn't come to terms if I remember correctly.

 

[FerrisRox]

I'm pretty sure by undrafted he means the player was a re-entry and had gone an entire draft without being selected.

Ah, gotcha.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

To be honest, finding good players after 15 or so is challenging. The only place you are practically guaranteed an NHLer is the top 5 (Griffin Reinhart being the most recent exception). I mean, here's a list I collected of every player drafted betwen 16 and 20 from 2005 to 2012 with each player classified. I may have some guys off a tier, but not much more than that. I did this last year, so I might be a bit higher on Klefbom than what he currently is and Vasilvesky and probably Wilson are a spot too low (problem with ranking guys still actively developing). But, of the 39 picks that matter (as Cherapanov shouldn't be looked at as anything outside of a tragedy). More than 50% didn't amount to much more than a 4th liner or 6th D-man.

Superstars (0)

Stars (1)
Tarasenko

Top line/Top pairing/Starter (2)
Nick Leddy
Oscar Klefbom

Top 4/Top 6/Fringe starter (9)
Martin Hanzel
Jake Gardiner
Chris Kreider
Nathan Beaulieu
Connor Murphy
Thomas Hertl
Terravainen
Vasilvesky
MDZ

3rd liner/5th D (7)
Trevor Lewis
Chris Stewart
Luca Sbisa
Jacob Josefson
Nick Bjugstad
Joel Armia
Tom Wilson

4th liner/6th D (6)
Jakub Kindl
Ian Cole
Austin Watson
Beau Bennett
Joe Colborne
Scott Laughton

Outright bust (14)
Alex Bourret
Ryan Parant
Kenndal McArdle
Ty Wishart
Mark Mitera
David Fischer
Colton Gillies
Logan MacMillan
Angelo Esposito
Chet Pikard
David Rundblad
Louis Leblanc
Joey Hishon
Mark McNeil

N/A (1)
Cherepanov

Interesting, though I have a hypothesis that teams, on average, are getting better at drafting. For instance, "defensive defenseman" are pretty much never drafted in the first round, where as recently as 2010, the Rangers -- a pretty good drafting team -- took a goon defenseman at 10 overall. Inconceivable that happens today. You also have fewer teams that are obsessed with size over production. And then you add that teams are probably getting better at evaluating European prospects.

So, for example, in the 2015 draft, 16 to 20 included Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot. Arguably, only Tarasenko is the only one your list will turn out to have been better.

 

[karnige]

I'd be depressed going that pick and missing out on gauranteed big bucks

 

[ScaredStreit]

The odds of a 2nd round pick, even an early one, making the league as a regular isn't that great. People need to realise this already. The odds aren't much better for late 1sts either. It's well known that once you get out of that top 10-15 range the charts start to drop dramtically in games played. That's why it's amazing when you get a guy like Datsyuk so late. The odds of him being an NHL player, meanwhile an elite one, were incredibly slim.

This. For every Datsyuk there's hundreds of guys who never make the NHL...we just don't hear about them.

 

[93LEAFS]

Interesting, though I have a hypothesis that teams, on average, are getting better at drafting. For instance, "defensive defenseman" are pretty much never drafted in the first round, where as recently as 2010, the Rangers -- a pretty good drafting team -- took a goon defenseman at 10 overall. Inconceivable that happens today. You also have fewer teams that are obsessed with size over production. And then you add that teams are probably getting better at evaluating European prospects.

So, for example, in the 2015 draft, 16 to 20 included Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot. Arguably, only Tarasenko is the only one your list will turn out to have been better.

I have a feeling 2015 will be an aberration, similar to 2003. Another point, I have a feeling 11-15, will end up looking pretty bad for 2015. Its not like 2013 or 2014 look particularly great from 16-20. They seem to be tracking similarly to other years.

 

[krutovsdonut]

it would be interesting to compare the historic outcomes for the first 5 players in a given round to the last 5 players in the round before to see the extent good or bad organizations might factor in. just delete any traded picks.