The 1st pick of the 2nd round is cursed

[AustonsNostrils]

It's incredible how poorly kids picked in that draft position have done, the 1st pick of the 3rd round has been much more successful.

look at this detritus from that position since 1995, i left out the past 6 or 7 years since players still might make it.

Ottawa Marc Moro
Buffalo Cory Sarich
Boston Ben Clymer
Colorado Ramzi Abid
Washington Michal Sivek
Atlanta Ilja Nikulin
Phoenix Matthew Spiller
Edmonton Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers
Carolina Danny Richmond
Pittsburgh Johannes Salmonsson
Anaheim Brendan Mikkelson
St. Louis Tomas Kana
Buffalo T.J. Brennan
Florida Jacob Markstrom
NY Islanders Mikko Koskinen
Edmonton Tyler Pitlick
Edmonton David Musil

Click to read more...

 

[The Great Weal]

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers? Bergevin offers 3rd overall and Max Pacioretty.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I know you left out the past 6 or 7 drafts, however I sure hope we don't see Yegor Korshkov on this list. He was selected by Toronto with the first pick of the 2nd round in 2016 and it was a surprise pick since he previously went undrafted. Plus other players like Alex DeBrincat and Jordan Kyrou were still available for them to select.

 

[MS]

4 NHL regulars (Sarich, Clymer, Markstrom, Pitlick) out of 17 picks is pretty close to the standard expected hit rate for that spot in the draft. Nothing unusual or 'cursed' about this at all.

 

[PensandCaps]

Tyler Pitlick is atleast a good player.

 

[93LEAFS]

4 NHL regulars (Sarich, Clymer, Markstrom, Pitlick) out of 17 picks is pretty close to the standard expected hit rate for that spot in the draft. Nothing unusual or 'cursed' about this at all.

People dramatically overvalue the expected return of picks. If I told the fans of teams that are picking between 20 and 31 that there is less than a coin flips chance of them becoming a somewhat valuable piece long-term (top 9F, Top 4D, Starting goalie) they'd think I was being an extreme pessimist.

 

[MS]

People dramatically overvalue the expected return of picks. If I told the fans of teams that are picking between 20 and 31 that there is less than a coin flips chance of them becoming a somewhat valuable piece long-term (top 9F, Top 4D, Starting goalie) they'd think I was being an extreme pessimist.

Yup. The chances of, say, pick 28 in the draft becoming a contributing NHL regular aren't much more than 30%, but most fans in their heads think a pick in that range has a hit rate more than double that.

 

[Tonystretcher]

Timmins is looking like he’ll be an exception

 

[DarkHorse2]

 

[Mickey Marner]

Keep in mind that the owner of this pick was generally the worst team in the league. They probably weren't well managed.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Op and title don’t match are we talking about pick 31-32 or pick 61-63?

 

[Kelly]

Is the 34th pick also "cursed"

2012	Ville Pokka	DEFENSE	New York Islanders
2011	Scott Mayfield	DEFENSE	New York Islanders	83	5	17	22	98
2010	Dalton Smith	FORWARD	Columbus Blue Jackets
2009	Carl Klingberg	FORWARD	Atlanta Thrashers	12	1	0	1	4
2008	Jake Allen	GOALIE	St. Louis Blues	219	0	4	4	6
2007	Josh Godfrey	DEFENSE	Washington Capitals
2006	Michal Neuvirth	GOALIE	Washington Capitals	250	0	4	4	6
2005	Ryan Stoa	FORWARD	Colorado Avalanche	40	4	3	7	20
2004	Johan Fransson	DEFENSE	Dallas Stars
2003	Mike Egener	DEFENSE	Tampa Bay Lightning
2002	Tobias Stephan	GOALIE	Dallas Stars	11	0	1	1	0
2001	Greg Watson	FORWARD	Florida Panthers
2000	Ruslan Zaynullin	FORWARD	Tampa Bay Lightning
1999	Ross Lupaschuk	DEFENSE	Washington Capitals	3	0	0	0	4
1998	Andrew Peters	FORWARD	Buffalo Sabres	229	4	3	7	650
1997	Ryan Bonni	DEFENSE	Vancouver Canucks	3	0	0	0	0
1996	Trevor Wasyluk	FORWARD	Hartford Whalers
1995	Jason Doig	DEFENSE	Winnipeg Jets	158	6	18	24	285
1994	Colin Cloutier	FORWARD	Tampa Bay Lightning
1993	Lee Sorochan	DEFENSE	New York Rangers	3	0	0	0	0
1992	Jarkko Varvio	FORWARD	Minnesota North Stars	13	3	4	7	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That's just the way the draft is, finding good players after the 1st is difficult. Some picks like 33 may have had better players pick, but that's only because of luck and chance.

 

[McShogun99]

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers? Bergevin offers 3rd overall and Max Pacioretty.

Can he play center?

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Monsieur is correct. Badly managed teams usually suck at picking players who aren't guaranteed studs.

On a tangibly related note, did anyone else immediately think of this when reading the thread title?

 

[The Great Weal]

Can he play center?

Absolutely not. Which makes him a perfect center candidate for the Habs.

 

[olli]

This is just luck. There might be a late 1st pick that has a history almost as bad as this. More early 2nd rounders never reach the NHL than make it.

 

[illpucks]

This is just luck. There might be a late 1st pick that has a history almost as bad as this. More early 2nd rounders never reach the NHL than make it.

So what was SJ thinking in getting a 2nd for Hoffman? A 60pt player vs a player that will likely never reach the NHL

 

[sabresfan129103]

Cory Sarich had a pretty successful career. Dude played almost 1000 games in the NHL.

 

[olli]

So what was SJ thinking in getting a 2nd for Hoffman? A 60pt player vs a player that will likely never reach the NHL

That was the most they could get. And its better than what they gave Ottawa for Hoffman.

 

[BobColesNasalCavity]

The Oilers long tradition of drafting homegrown talent outside the top 5 picks in full display.

 

[Bounces R Way]

How dare you besmirch the good name of Cory Sarich.

 

[93LEAFS]

Is the 34th pick also "cursed"

2012	Ville Pokka	DEFENSE	New York Islanders
2011	Scott Mayfield	DEFENSE	New York Islanders	83	5	17	22	98
2010	Dalton Smith	FORWARD	Columbus Blue Jackets
2009	Carl Klingberg	FORWARD	Atlanta Thrashers	12	1	0	1	4
2008	Jake Allen	GOALIE	St. Louis Blues	219	0	4	4	6
2007	Josh Godfrey	DEFENSE	Washington Capitals
2006	Michal Neuvirth	GOALIE	Washington Capitals	250	0	4	4	6
2005	Ryan Stoa	FORWARD	Colorado Avalanche	40	4	3	7	20
2004	Johan Fransson	DEFENSE	Dallas Stars
2003	Mike Egener	DEFENSE	Tampa Bay Lightning
2002	Tobias Stephan	GOALIE	Dallas Stars	11	0	1	1	0
2001	Greg Watson	FORWARD	Florida Panthers
2000	Ruslan Zaynullin	FORWARD	Tampa Bay Lightning
1999	Ross Lupaschuk	DEFENSE	Washington Capitals	3	0	0	0	4
1998	Andrew Peters	FORWARD	Buffalo Sabres	229	4	3	7	650
1997	Ryan Bonni	DEFENSE	Vancouver Canucks	3	0	0	0	0
1996	Trevor Wasyluk	FORWARD	Hartford Whalers
1995	Jason Doig	DEFENSE	Winnipeg Jets	158	6	18	24	285
1994	Colin Cloutier	FORWARD	Tampa Bay Lightning
1993	Lee Sorochan	DEFENSE	New York Rangers	3	0	0	0	0
1992	Jarkko Varvio	FORWARD	Minnesota North Stars	13	3	4	7	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That's just the way the draft is, finding good players after the 1st is difficult. Some picks like 33 may have had better players pick, but that's only because of luck and chance.

To be honest, finding good players after 15 or so is challenging. The only place you are practically guaranteed an NHLer is the top 5 (Griffin Reinhart being the most recent exception). I mean, here's a list I collected of every player drafted betwen 16 and 20 from 2005 to 2012 with each player classified. I may have some guys off a tier, but not much more than that. I did this last year, so I might be a bit higher on Klefbom than what he currently is and Vasilvesky and probably Wilson are a spot too low (problem with ranking guys still actively developing). But, of the 39 picks that matter (as Cherapanov shouldn't be looked at as anything outside of a tragedy). More than 50% didn't amount to much more than a 4th liner or 6th D-man.

Superstars (0)

Stars (1)
Tarasenko

Top line/Top pairing/Starter (2)
Nick Leddy
Oscar Klefbom

Top 4/Top 6/Fringe starter (9)
Martin Hanzel
Jake Gardiner
Chris Kreider
Nathan Beaulieu
Connor Murphy
Thomas Hertl
Terravainen
Vasilvesky
MDZ

3rd liner/5th D (7)
Trevor Lewis
Chris Stewart
Luca Sbisa
Jacob Josefson
Nick Bjugstad
Joel Armia
Tom Wilson

4th liner/6th D (6)
Jakub Kindl
Ian Cole
Austin Watson
Beau Bennett
Joe Colborne
Scott Laughton

Outright bust (14)
Alex Bourret
Ryan Parant
Kenndal McArdle
Ty Wishart
Mark Mitera
David Fischer
Colton Gillies
Logan MacMillan
Angelo Esposito
Chet Pikard
David Rundblad
Louis Leblanc
Joey Hishon
Mark McNeil

N/A (1)
Cherepanov

 

[1989]

Aside from people already knowledgeable in the statistical percentages, why is this a surprise?

Pick 31, 32, etc. are (generally) draft picks of the worst teams, and a logical presumption can be made that the team in question is not a good team, likely through bad management/development of the other assets under their wing.

With that general assumption in mind, I would not be surprised to learn picks 40-60 have historically had only a slightly worse success rate as the teams making the selection may be organizations with stronger management and better scouting/development personnel.

So on and so forth for the remaining rounds.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

One of them (Sarich) became one of my favourite Flames

 

[Man Bear Pig]

The odds of a 2nd round pick, even an early one, making the league as a regular isn't that great. People need to realise this already. The odds aren't much better for late 1sts either. It's well known that once you get out of that top 10-15 range the charts start to drop dramtically in games played. That's why it's amazing when you get a guy like Datsyuk so late. The odds of him being an NHL player, meanwhile an elite one, were incredibly slim.