Post-Game Talk: That's 5!

[InGusWeTrust]

Athanasiou is showing some crazy talent right now.

Wasn't he showing it last year too?

 

[Flowah]

Yea, I'm not sold on these statistics meaning anything yet. Let's wait until we have a 15-20 game sample size before we put any stock into the analytics.

That flies both ways though. If the underlying possession numbers aren't worrisome because of sample size then neither can the GD or the W/L be reason for optimism because of the sample size.

I think rather that we looked like hot garbage for the first 3 games and have slowly started to improve with still some rough patches here and there.

Why I don't think it's score effect: Because good teams in the past have shown that even though they have leads most games most of the time, they still put up better overall possession numbers. Either we are sitting waaaaaaaaay too far back on our heels after a lead, which is not a good thing, or we are just getting a little lucky, which is also not a good thing.

I think no one expects this pace to continue, that'd be pretty delusional. It's over 117 points on the season if it did. So we are very clearly due for a regression. That regression is also pointed to by the possession numbers and PDO numbers.

Wasn't he showing it last year too?

I think even moreso this season.

I picked out some clips from the last game. There are several really good plays that yeah, made me think "shades of Datsyuk."

Pass to Vanek for a goal. What a look
https://youtu.be/49RWU_JNE4M?t=37s
Gains the zone, curls back around, sets up Ericsson in the high slot perfectly with a perfect pass. Great look and a great feed.
https://youtu.be/49RWU_JNE4M?t=1m21s
Gains the zone with 2 Canes on him. Still passes right to Vanek for a decent shot. Recovers Vanek's blocked shot, makes a slick move between his legs and passes across the crease to Helm for a beautiful chance that doesn't go in.
https://youtu.be/49RWU_JNE4M?t=2m14s
Obviously his goal showed great patience and a great shot. Canes give him the room, he takes it all to a great shooting position. Great work by Glenny and Ott down low.
https://youtu.be/49RWU_JNE4M?t=5m51s

Here's the San Jose game.

Look at this takeaway in the d-zone. Like I said, shades of Datsyuk.
https://youtu.be/3hWWcwxpzd0?t=29s
His goal.
https://youtu.be/3hWWcwxpzd0?t=4m39s
I rewatched the game last night and it's not in awood's highlight reel but he also had some real good plays during the PP when he was out there for a bit. He's just turning into a real solid player.

 

[joe89]

Definitely a new era now. Zetterberg by all means has played pretty good hockey(my god does he still have the vision) but he's not winning us the games and is not standing above the rest. But this is a positive, we need the unit to do the work. Z can be part of that unit, but he can't do the hard-carry anymore. I think all players feel involved in the team success right now, and with that comes responsibility to show up and play for each other.

Also call me crazy, I'd keep the lines the same way but switch Abby with Sheahan. Love what Ott brings to that fourth line and AA is lights out

You know I was watching the game and the only guy I could think of not really being up to scratch or not fitting in with his role was Sheahan. I think he's a bit too tentative to play wing, and not skilled enough to play on a scoring line. Definitely on the short list of guys I'd consider scratching to keep AA more consistently in the lineup.

 

[Ezekial]

Is AA still considered a rookie or did he play too many games last season?

He's not Calder eligible because he played in too many games last season, even though he played less minutes than some Calder eligible players such as William Nylander.

 

[kerjuxaxaxa]

Haven't watched wings this year yet. Can it be said that Nielsen is better than Filpula?

 

[Wood Stick]

Definitely a new era now. Zetterberg by all means has played pretty good hockey(my god does he still have the vision) but he's not winning us the games and is not standing above the rest. But this is a positive, we need the unit to do the work. Z can be part of that unit, but he can't do the hard-carry anymore. I think all players feel involved in the team success right now, and with that comes responsibility to show up and play for each other.



You know I was watching the game and the only guy I could think of not really being up to scratch or not fitting in with his role was Sheahan. I think he's a bit too tentative to play wing, and not skilled enough to play on a scoring line. Definitely on the short list of guys I'd consider scratching to keep AA more consistently in the lineup.

Z playing less minutes, not running the PP, and a mix of three scoring lines is such a great thing.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Haven't watched wings this year yet. Can it be said that Nielsen is better than Filpula?

Too soon to say. I think when Filppula was on, he was a VERY good second line center, I don't want disparage the guy even though his last season here wasn't very good.

That said, Nielsen last season was definitely better than Filppula of last season.

 

[Wood Stick]

Too soon to say. I think when Filppula was on, he was a VERY good second line center, I don't want disparage the guy even though his last season here wasn't very good.

That said, Nielsen last season was definitely better than Filppula of last season.

Wasn't Val's best season on the wing with Z? That was his 66 point year, yeah? They're similar players. Frans' speed IMO seperates him a bit for me.

 

[SirloinUB]

That flies both ways though. If the underlying possession numbers aren't worrisome because of sample size then neither can the GD or the W/L be reason for optimism because of the sample size.

I think rather that we looked like hot garbage for the first 3 games and have slowly started to improve with still some rough patches here and there.

Why I don't think it's score effect: Because good teams in the past have shown that even though they have leads most games most of the time, they still put up better overall possession numbers. Either we are sitting waaaaaaaaay too far back on our heels after a lead, which is not a good thing, or we are just getting a little lucky, which is also not a good thing.

I think no one expects this pace to continue, that'd be pretty delusional. It's over 117 points on the season if it did. So we are very clearly due for a regression. That regression is also pointed to by the possession numbers and PDO numbers.

Hasn't the bolded been a very obvious Blashill trait for a year now?


While yes, I do expect some regression(don't forget that a team can get "lucky" for an entire year ala Colorado, Calgary, etc), the underlying stats and possession metrics have us as the 2nd "worst" team. Even the most pessimistic posters didn't predict that. So while it may be fair to suggest the finalized game results are not indicative of where this team really is, its equally fair to suggest that the possession metrics are not indicative of where this team really is. As much as I expect some regression in W/L outcomes, I also expect those baseline metrics to improve for this team.


You often talk about sustainability, which I agree is important, so I return a question to you:

Are the individual events that make up these possession metrics sustainable? Can teams like Carolina and Ottawa and NYR (specifically of 2016) out possession Detroit throughout the season?

Even with Bashill's penchant to sit back and protect a lead, I believe the answer is no.



P.S. Props on the AA analysis; thorough, well thought out and supported breakdown.

 

[odin1981]

From what I have noticed over the past 2 seasons at least in regards to the shot department is that through 2 periods more often than not we are 50-50 or 55-45 or 45-55 with who we play against in a pure percentage basis. However if we have a lead into the third like is often usual the losing team ups there effort and we shell up and take shot after shot on the chin.

Good example is last night if any of you have noticed. We where basically in the 45-55 bracket till around 5-7 minutes remaining and then wham bam thank you mam before you know it the opponent is up past 30 shots and we are still around 25'ish at the last minute or two. If you don't believe me if you recorded the game check it out.

But also the system that Blash is having them play isn't like Babs where it is all based on BS shots from the perimeter inflating totals that have no chance of going in. Blash's system for lack of a better description is more quality over quantity with the transition attack.

 

[14ari13]

Hasn't the bolded been a very obvious Blashill trait for a year now?


While yes, I do expect some regression(don't forget that a team can get "lucky" for an entire year ala Colorado, Calgary, etc), the underlying stats and possession metrics have us as the 2nd "worst" team. Even the most pessimistic posters didn't predict that. So while it may be fair to suggest the finalized game results are not indicative of where this team really is, its equally fair to suggest that the possession metrics are not indicative of where this team really is. As much as I expect some regression in W/L outcomes, I also expect those baseline metrics to improve for this team.


You often talk about sustainability, which I agree is important, so I return a question to you:

Are the individual events that make up these possession metrics sustainable? Can teams like Carolina and Ottawa and NYR (specifically of 2016) out possession Detroit throughout the season?

Even with Bashill's penchant to sit back and protect a lead, I believe the answer is no.



P.S. Props on the AA analysis; thorough, well thought out and supported breakdown.

Howard stole us a game maybe 2. Last season it was Mrazek who stole several games.
I think limiting quality chances is more important that the shots total.

 

[Flowah]

Hasn't the bolded been a very obvious Blashill trait for a year now?

Even the most pessimistic posters didn't predict that. So while it may be fair to suggest the finalized game results are not indicative of where this team really is, its equally fair to suggest that the possession metrics are not indicative of where this team really is.

You often talk about sustainability, which I agree is important, so I return a question to you:

Are the individual events that make up these possession metrics sustainable? Can teams like Carolina and Ottawa and NYR (specifically of 2016) out possession Detroit throughout the season?

I'd say it went back even to Babcock's days. I clearly remember the number of times we turtled up in the 3rd period with a 1-2 goal lead and how close we'd come to losing it (and sometimes did).

The reason I'm putting faith in the possession stats is because how reliable they've been for most teams through the years *and* because our PDO right now is literally 3rd highest in the league. It makes total sense that we're winning despite our bad overall possession because we're making *tons* of saves and our SH% is higher than normal. And we are certainly making tons of saves. Best SV% in the league right now aren't we?

When that PDO normalizes back down we'll lose a bunch. The possession and PDO all point to that.

Not sure what your question means about individual events. Do you mean games? I'm pretty sure there are going to be a lot of teams that outpossession us throughout the season. Not sure what you're trying to ask here.

 

[Heaton]

I'd say it went back even to Babcock's days. I clearly remember the number of times we turtled up in the 3rd period with a 1-2 goal lead and how close we'd come to losing it (and sometimes did).

I'd argue the majority of the league does on the regular.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Generally speaking, a team whose level of play derives from depth over elite players is less prone to regression than one whose performance is largely carried by fewer individuals.

That team is also less prone to spikes of team play for the same reason.

With Detroit, if they are able to get competent to strong goaltending from their tandem this year without both shriveling at the same time there are reasons to suspect the team will be much more consistently successful.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The reason I'm putting faith in the possession stats is because how reliable they've been for most teams through the years *and* because our PDO right now is literally 3rd highest in the league. It makes total sense that we're winning despite our bad overall possession because we're making *tons* of saves and our SH% is higher than normal. And we are certainly making tons of saves. Best SV% in the league right now aren't we?

When that PDO normalizes back down we'll lose a bunch. The possession and PDO all point to that.

Advanced stats are decently reliable in bigger sample sizes. You are making too much of a 7-game sample size imo. It's still at the point where 1 loss likely puts a big dent in the PDO and 1-2 good possession games gives those numbers a big boost. Things haven't settled in yet.

 

[Flowah]

Advanced stats are decently reliable in bigger sample sizes. You are making too much of a 7-game sample size imo. It's still at the point where 1 loss likely puts a big dent in the PDO and 1-2 good possession games gives those numbers a big boost. Things haven't settled in yet.

I'm not making too much of it. I'm using it to temper my expectations of the team. Despite a 5 game winning streak they *are* due for regression, don't you agree? It's not like I'm saying they're gonna be a lottery team. I'm just being more realistic about what their 5 game streak represents.

Some decent play, a sickened opponent, and a bit of luck.

 

[DanZ]

I'm not making too much of it. I'm using it to temper my expectations of the team. Despite a 5 game winning streak they *are* due for regression, don't you agree? It's not like I'm saying they're gonna be a lottery team. I'm just being more realistic about what their 5 game streak represents.

Some decent play, a sickened opponent, and a bit of luck.

Due for a regression or due for a couple dominant possession games. It's too early to tell where they're gunna go.

 

[Flowah]

Due for a regression or due for a couple dominant possession games. It's too early to tell where they're gunna go.

I don't think that follows. That's like looking at the Leafs/Flames/Avs when people were saying that about them and saying "they're due for some dominant possession games because they keep winning while having bad possession stats."

That just doesn't make sense.

Besides, our possession last season was awful too. I don't think we're that different from last season. Better scoring touch for sure with Vanek, Sproul, Green, but the possession still hasn't manifested.

 

[TheMule93]

I don't think that follows. That's like looking at the Leafs/Flames/Avs when people were saying that about them and saying "they're due for some dominant possession games because they keep winning while having bad possession stats."

That just doesn't make sense.

Besides, our possession last season was awful too. I don't think we're that different from last season. Better scoring touch for sure with Vanek, Sproul, Green, but the possession still hasn't manifested.

No our Posession Stats WerenT Awful Last Year. We Were 9th In ThE League At Almost 52% During 5v5 Situations .

https://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&sort=CFPCT&sortdir=DESC

Ps: Sorry For MY ObnoXious typing . My Phone keyboard Is ComPletEly ****ed UP Rigjt Now For Some Reaosn. I

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'm not making too much of it. I'm using it to temper my expectations of the team. Despite a 5 game winning streak they *are* due for regression, don't you agree? It's not like I'm saying they're gonna be a lottery team. I'm just being more realistic about what their 5 game streak represents.

Some decent play, a sickened opponent, and a bit of luck.

7 games isn't enough for advanced stats to have any predictive value. We're due for "regression" in the sense that we won't always win 5 out of every 7 games we play. But you don't have to look at corsi to know that. You're talking about the Leafs/Flames, but those teams had unsustainable advanced stats after 40+ games. Flames had a whole season. If we have these underlying numbers in December I'll agree we're due for regression.

 

[Oddbob]

Advanced stats are really not that important. The game of hockey is the same before and after the adding of advanced stats. Did not have advanced stats back in Scotty Bowman s day, and he shutdown other teams offense, just fine.

 

[DanZ]

I don't think that follows. That's like looking at the Leafs/Flames/Avs when people were saying that about them and saying "they're due for some dominant possession games because they keep winning while having bad possession stats."

That just doesn't make sense.

Besides, our possession last season was awful too. I don't think we're that different from last season. Better scoring touch for sure with Vanek, Sproul, Green, but the possession still hasn't manifested.

First of all, it's been 7 games. It's not like you have a half season sample size. It's just as valid to say we'll go up as it is to say we'll go down.

Second of all, we weren't an awful possession team last season as someone else pointed out. So historically speaking, it's more valid to assume our possession numbers will go up. The only caveat is that we don't have Datsyuk anymore who was a possession monster even in his last season.

In short, 7 games is too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions

 

[DanZ]

Advanced stats are really not that important. The game of hockey is the same before and after the adding of advanced stats. Did not have advanced stats back in Scotty Bowman s day, and he shutdown other teams offense, just fine.

I'm willing to bet that if advanced stats were tracked back then that Bowman's teams would have been the best or one of the best in the league.

 

[SirloinUB]

I'd say it went back even to Babcock's days. I clearly remember the number of times we turtled up in the 3rd period with a 1-2 goal lead and how close we'd come to losing it (and sometimes did).

The reason I'm putting faith in the possession stats is because how reliable they've been for most teams through the years *and* because our PDO right now is literally 3rd highest in the league. It makes total sense that we're winning despite our bad overall possession because we're making *tons* of saves and our SH% is higher than normal. And we are certainly making tons of saves. Best SV% in the league right now aren't we?

When that PDO normalizes back down we'll lose a bunch. The possession and PDO all point to that.

Not sure what your question means about individual events. Do you mean games? I'm pretty sure there are going to be a lot of teams that outpossession us throughout the season. Not sure what you're trying to ask here.

Yes I meant individual games. The point I'm making is that I don't expect these possession numbers to last all season long.

They are currently a bottom 5 possession team, and were out-shot by lower end teams like Ottawa and Carolina. I honestly don't think that will continue all season long. As the possession numbers pull up to the middle of the pack (they were top 12 last season in possession), they will rely on luck/PDO less.

I just can't see a higher end possession team falling to bottom 5 and sustaining those results over the long term.

 

[Flowah]

No our Posession Stats WerenT Awful Last Year. We Were 9th In ThE League At Almost 52% During 5v5 Situations .

https://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&sort=CFPCT&sortdir=DESC

Hm. My mistake. I remember seeing some charts around the halfway point of last year that showed we were consistently getting outshot. That is certainly reason to hope that this team can improve.

Though using Fenwick takes us to "mediocre" ranges around 14-15.

7 games isn't enough for advanced stats to have any predictive value. We're due for "regression" in the sense that we won't always win 5 out of every 7 games we play. But you don't have to look at corsi to know that. You're talking about the Leafs/Flames, but those teams had unsustainable advanced stats after 40+ games. Flames had a whole season. If we have these underlying numbers in December I'll agree we're due for regression.

Why are 7 games enough to be optimistic but not enough to temper optimism?

Advanced stats are really not that important. The game of hockey is the same before and after the adding of advanced stats. Did not have advanced stats back in Scotty Bowman s day, and he shutdown other teams offense, just fine.

That is fallacious reasoning.

1. Bowman could have understood, intuitively, possession metrics without knowing specifically what he was using.
2. The whole league didn't know about them and therefore there was no competitive disadvantage to not using them.

It's like saying "modern diet and training are unimportant because back 30 years ago they didn't exist. Gretzky was eating hamburgers and pizza between periods." Sure. So was everyone else. Now you can't do that. You need to keep up with the rest of the league.

It's just as valid to say we'll go up as it is to say we'll go down.

You think we're going to improve on .714%? You think this team is going to do better than 115 points at the end of the season? Neither common sense nor the underlying stats point to that.