Post-Game Talk: That's 5!

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Syckle78

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Nov 5, 2011
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I'm willing to bet that if advanced stats were tracked back then that Bowman's teams would have been the best or one of the best in the league.

Well yea because Bowman's team were crazy stacked for the most part and he made them play defense. Nobody ever needed advanced stats to tell someone that is a recipe for success. The only time I ever heard anything even remotely stats related from Bowman was something like you need your pp + pk percentage to equal 100+ lol things were much simpler back then.
 

izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
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To defend the wings with more of an eye-ball test:

To describe us as "hot garbage" the first three games... Against Tampa, the team favored to win the cup playing in their home opener (which is significant IMO), we were winning 2-0 after one, and 3-2 after 2. We took 5 penalties in the 3rd including 2 too-many-men penalties. If you want to use advanced stats to predict what will happen in the future, I will use common sense to predict we wont have a worse period this season.

If your advanced stats tell you we got outplayed vs Carolina, it's time to throw your stats out. We utterly dominated that game for 90% of it and played evenly when we were up 3-0.
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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Why are 7 games enough to be optimistic but not enough to temper optimism?
I'm talking specifially about 7 games not being enough in terms of advanced stats. I'm only cautiously optimistic because I know we're not going to score like this all season, I know we have been pretty bad on the road so far, I know Howard can't keep having the highest sv% in the league, I know our D can still be exposed and players like Vanek could go MIA etc.
But I'm not going to worry about our advanced stats at a point in time when 1-2 games can significantly change them. Losing the possession battle in a game like the one against Carolina is absolutely meaningless in terms of predicting our long-term success. Same with PDO, it means nothing that it's a bit high when we're winning like this. We go 6-4 or something in our next 10 and we likely have a very 'normal' PDO and still a very good record.
 
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Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
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To defend the wings with more of an eye-ball test:

To describe us as "hot garbage" the first three games... Against Tampa, the team favored to win the cup playing in their home opener (which is significant IMO), we were winning 2-0 after one, and 3-2 after 2. We took 5 penalties in the 3rd including 2 too-many-men penalties. If you want to use advanced stats to predict what will happen in the future, I will use common sense to predict we wont have a worse period this season.

If your advanced stats tell you we got outplayed vs Carolina, it's time to throw your stats out. We utterly dominated that game for 90% of it and played evenly when we were up 3-0.

I've read way too many studies and seen too much about the unreliability of eyewitnesses to trust in people's "eyetests" that aren't supported by some modicum of objective data.

There are just too many cognitive biases that afflict human beings when it comes to these sort of things. Not to mention we're pretty limited in how much information we can intake at any given time.
 

Winger98

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Feb 27, 2002
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I'd argue the majority of the league does on the regular.

I remember Babcock commenting about it, too. No matter what coaches tell guys, they still want to play to protect their lead and not to lose. Human nature I guess. Meanwhile,the other team ups their play/aggresion to also avoid losing.
 

Yemack

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Oct 30, 2007
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I've read way too many studies and seen too much about the unreliability of eyewitnesses to trust in people's "eyetests" that aren't supported by some modicum of objective data.

There are just too many cognitive biases that afflict human beings when it comes to these sort of things. Not to mention we're pretty limited in how much information we can intake at any given time.

I've also read quite a few studies about malleability of human memory and taken a course or two in stats as well which I was at top of the class. I'm not against Stats. I'm just not as thrilled in predictability of such measurement which I think is flawed at detecting long term performance in some cases. I think I've already said enough about what I think so I wont repeat all over again.

I'm sure Corsi is a good stat that is somewhat reliable. Just not as reliable as I would like. I'm sure you'd agree on this. There is no perfect stat out there. Otherwise, Vegas sports bookie would go out of business.
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

The jersey ad still sucks
Mar 4, 2004
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I remember Babcock commenting about it, too. No matter what coaches tell guys, they still want to play to protect their lead and not to lose. Human nature I guess. Meanwhile,the other team ups their play/aggresion to also avoid losing.

That's what seems to separate the truly great teams. The ability to consistently close out games.

Remember the 08 Wings? If they had a lead headed into the third period I remember feeling like it was lights out.

Kings were similar. For a few seasons they were a blast to watch but unless they have a 5 goal lead headed into the third period there was always a chance they'd blow it. Then with experience and poise they got better at locking it down without falling into a defensive shell.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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That's what seems to separate the truly great teams. The ability to consistently close out games.

Remember the 08 Wings? If they had a lead headed into the third period I remember feeling like it was lights out.

Kings were similar. For a few seasons they were a blast to watch but unless they have a 5 goal lead headed into the third period there was always a chance they'd blow it. Then with experience and poise they got better at locking it down without falling into a defensive shell.

Yes, but there are very few "bad" teams in the league anymore compared to 2008. 10 years into the salary cap era as leveled the playing field a lot. You won't have a team with a Lidstrom AND Rafalski on the top pairing, or Pronger and Niedermayer for that matter. The NHL doesn't want "automatic" wins. Lead changes are exciting. Think about how many wins the Red Wings got last season after being down two goals? I feel like there were plenty.
 

izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
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I've read way too many studies and seen too much about the unreliability of eyewitnesses to trust in people's "eyetests" that aren't supported by some modicum of objective data.

There are just too many cognitive biases that afflict human beings when it comes to these sort of things. Not to mention we're pretty limited in how much information we can intake at any given time.

That's all great and I don't disagree.

In a murder investigation, I'll take the crystal clear video of the event over an eyewitness.

These advanced stats are not a "video" of reality. Not even close. They are really just one *******'s opinion on quantifying his eye test. It can be done a million different ways, and people latch on to the stat that confirm's THEIR eye test way too quickly
 

Syckle78

Registered User
Nov 5, 2011
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Redford, MI
Yes, but there are very few "bad" teams in the league anymore compared to 2008. 10 years into the salary cap era as leveled the playing field a lot. You won't have a team with a Lidstrom AND Rafalski on the top pairing, or Pronger and Niedermayer for that matter. The NHL doesn't want "automatic" wins. Lead changes are exciting. Think about how many wins the Red Wings got last season after being down two goals? I feel like there were plenty.

This just isn't true. Look at the 08 standings and compare them to last years. There's just as many bad teams now than there were then. salary cap does nothing to help the bottom of the league because those teams aren't competing to sign players.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Yes, but there are very few "bad" teams in the league anymore compared to 2008. 10 years into the salary cap era as leveled the playing field a lot. You won't have a team with a Lidstrom AND Rafalski on the top pairing, or Pronger and Niedermayer for that matter. The NHL doesn't want "automatic" wins. Lead changes are exciting. Think about how many wins the Red Wings got last season after being down two goals? I feel like there were plenty.

I get your overarching point here, but I really don't get the bit about no more Lidstrom and Rafalski pairings anymore. The cap is 25-30% higher now than it was then. If you could have that in 07-09 (Rafalski didn't come here until 2007), you could certainly have it now.

I mean Keith-Seabrook has been that for Chicago for a long time, and Josi-Subban in Nashville is an elite defensive pairing.
 

DanZ

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Mar 6, 2008
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Well yea because Bowman's team were crazy stacked for the most part and he made them play defense. Nobody ever needed advanced stats to tell someone that is a recipe for success. The only time I ever heard anything even remotely stats related from Bowman was something like you need your pp + pk percentage to equal 100+ lol things were much simpler back then.

It's just a stat to track what you see on the ice. Like every other stat.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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This just isn't true. Look at the 08 standings and compare them to last years. There's just as many bad teams now than there were then. salary cap does nothing to help the bottom of the league because those teams aren't competing to sign players.

Salary cap controls only Stanley Cup winners NOT becoming dynasties. Everybody loses their core for Salary raises which will eat big part of the cap, and then there's no depth.

Others turn. Repeat.

It controls the high peak, but bottom teams are still same. Bottom feeders will get high picks and everybody drafts better (fails less with top picks) now, so the bottom end parity comes that way on long-run. There's some incentive to be bad.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
31,216
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Tampere, Finland
Both Chicago and LA almost pulled off being dynasties. They have virtually the same lineup throughout their championship runs. They just didn't play well enough to do it more often.

Almost and almost. Both lost their quality depth due success/raises and that's it. End of an era, if your prospect development isn't hitting home-runs year after year.

Same happened for us, we were strong as hell until 2009 when Zeta was with 2.65M caphit and Mule 942k. When they got their paychecks, the quality depth was gone, because our every star player (Dats, Zeta, Lids, Rafi, Mule) was market priced. No team can keep that depth on long run.

The point is, Stanley Cup winners or runner-ups almost always have most underpaid players. But sooner or later, they want to get paid. And that means, "getting paid" happens elsewhere. You lose that depth.

If you have strong productive 3rd line, which usually is the differencemaker against other contenders, it doesn't fit under the cap on long run.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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This just isn't true. Look at the 08 standings and compare them to last years. There's just as many bad teams now than there were then. salary cap does nothing to help the bottom of the league because those teams aren't competing to sign players.

Pre-cap there was typically a 50-60 point spread between the top team in points and the last team in points.

Post cap that difference has settled into the low 40's, as in 41 or 42.

Further, how those teams have grouped up has changed quite a bit. Pre-cap there were the 8 playoff teams and maybe one or two others within shouting distance. Post cap that group fighting for the 7th or 8th spot is much more heavily populated.

That's really where the cap has made the difference. Pre-cap teams would fold up their tents much earlier. Now, teams hang around because they have to spend 50+ mil anyway. The teams truly intent on being terrible today, either through conscious choice or flailing incompetence, are just as bad now as they were 15 years ago... with the exception of the goaltending position, which has gotten so much stronger and deeper than even crap teams can still field a competent goaltender.
 

HIFE

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May 10, 2011
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Detroit, MI
Things to do when team is on a 6 game winning streak; pick apart the advance stats :laugh:

Enjoy the streak, ppl! Jeesh!

I think the discussions are enjoyable and interesting. How many times can we praise how stupendous Ericsson is playing? :)
 
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