Prospect Info: Team Board Mock Draft

[Green Snow Storm]

We as a board have collectively failed making Schneider our choice.

I'd be screaming for Dubas to trade down if this is what happened. Huge kick in the nuts having Jarvis and Askarov off the board right before us.

Pretending we are picking, I'd be happy taking any of Mercer, Khusnutdinov, Gunler, Amirov, or Reichel.

Gonna go with Khusnutdinov because he's my favourite.

You’re a great poster and I respect your opinion, I know you’ve stressed multiple times that you don’t think Schneider is close to BPA at 15, and without picking hairs, I share pretty much the same sentiment. (I’m a fair bit higher on him than you however) I just think when it comes to prospects, when you make concrete statements like the board has failed making Schneider their choice, I just think you have to be a little more open minded when talking about players and how much projection is involved.

I’ve certainly been right on prospects, but I’ve also been very wrong. As we all have. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Schneider becomes a top 4 hard minutes defenceman like a Chychrun or Carlo, and it wouldn’t completely shock me if he were to develop into a 3rd pair guy who is just a steady player. There’s just so much projection that deeming anything a failure with those players available at 15 is a reach. If Jarvis or Askarov were still available I might be inclined to agree with you, as those guys are a different tier of prospect than what we were left with at 15.

I would pick Reichel if we had to pick there personally, but I wouldn’t be floored if a player like Schneider turned into a more valuable player in the NHL. Which is why I try and stop myself from making concrete statements.

 

[hamzarocks]

Ideally that pick is dealt and it maybe along with lilijgren brings an under 27 RHD signed for 3+ yeara at a controlled caphit (under 6 million). A player who is good enough to play on the top pairing or anchor the 2nd pairing.

If we keep the pick I like Jarvis or Schneider

 

[Morgs]

You’re a great poster and I respect your opinion, I know you’ve stressed multiple times that you don’t think Schneider is close to BPA at 15, and without picking hairs, I share pretty much the same sentiment. (I’m a fair bit higher on him than you however) I just think when it comes to prospects, when you make concrete statements like the board has failed making Schneider their choice, I just think you have to be a little more open minded when talking about players and how much projection is involved.

I’ve certainly been right on prospects, but I’ve also been very wrong. As we all have. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Schneider becomes a top 4 hard minutes defenceman like a Chychrun or Carlo, and it wouldn’t completely shock me if he were to develop into a 3rd pair guy who is just a steady player. There’s just so much projection that deeming anything a failure with those players available at 15 is a reach. If Jarvis or Askarov were still available I might be inclined to agree with you, as those guys are a different tier of prospect than what we were left with at 15.

I would pick Reichel if we had to pick there personally, but I wouldn’t be floored if a player like Schneider turned into a more valuable player in the NHL. Which is why I try and stop myself from making concrete statements.

Heres a great video as to what I believe is the issues with picking a guy like Schneider at 15.



It's not that I don't think there's a chance Schneider can be an impact player at the next level, I just don't think he's got nearly as high a chance of doing anything significant as about 25-30 players in this draft.

He's the exact type of player fans & scouts tend to overrate, especially in what is one of the weakest years for defenseman.

I love Reichel. I have him in my top-20.

 

[LeafGrief]

Cats took Guhle? Oooookay then.

I'd trade down in this case. Voted Schneider because trading wasn't an option.

 

[ToneDog]

Heres a great video as to what I believe is the issues with picking a guy like Schneider at 15.



It's not that I don't think there's a chance Schneider can be an impact player at the next level, I just don't think he's got nearly as high a chance of doing anything significant as about 25-30 players in this draft.

He's the exact type of player fans & scouts tend to overrate, especially in what is one of the weakest years for defenseman.

I love Reichel. I have him in my top-20.

I bet you can find flaws in every dman's game. What scouts have to figure out is whether a player has what it takes to correct/improve his flaws. We picked Lily 3 years ago and he is still not NHL ready. Unless there is a diamond at #15 that Leafs absolutely love this might be the year to trade down and pic our dman in the 20s.

 

[Morgs]

I bet you can find flaws in every dman's game. What scouts have to figure out is whether a player has what it takes to correct/improve his flaws. We picked Lily 3 years ago and he is still not NHL ready. Unless there is a diamond at #15 that Leafs absolutely love this might be the year to trade down and pic our dman in the 20s.

Of course you can find flaws in every junior Dman's game (except Ty Smith, he was a god in junior ).

The issue comes down to what are you giving up to get a low-ceiling, defensively responsible defenseman that even has major red flags when it comes to his defense. Not only that, he's one of the oldest players in the class and really does nothing exceptionally well at the junior level. Who knows how that's going to translate.

He's the kind of guy that ends up being Pesce 1% of the time, and Luke Schenn 75%- and don't tell me Schenn played games blah blah blah. Jack Johnson/Ristolainen have played games too and they're outright garbage.

He's being picked on our board because he's the perceived best right handed defenseman and it's our biggest organizational weakness. There's nobody who could honestly come in here and tell me with a straight face they've done extensive research on even these 31 players and tell me he's a better bet of having a significant NHL impact than 16 of them.

 

[KMNRB]

My favorites are Mercer and Lapierre (in terms of potentials) but picked Schneider in the end.

I looked at last year's draft and saw Detroit picking Seider off the board because RHD is always hard to find (and thus is very valuable). It is not just an area of need in the Leafs' organization but in the also NHL. So a top-4 RHD should carry more value than a 2nd or 3rd liner. Lapierre has the chance to be a first liner (Button compares him to Bergeron) but his injury risk is a factor.

The concern with Schneider is whether his skating is good enough or will he be just a 5th to 6th defenceman like Luke Schenn. Reports seem to vary in opinions. I have seen clips where he sometimes look like Luke Schenn but when I watch him in live games (limited viewings) he looks fine. But his hockey IQ (defensive IQ) seems good and that to me is more important than skating. Nick Robertson's skating wasn't great last year but has improved a lot since then.

 

[aingefan]

There’s gonna be a player there, i count about 4 I quite like, so trading back makes sense to me if value is there.

 

[Duckrider]

My favorites are Mercer and Lapierre (in terms of potentials) but picked Schneider in the end.

I looked at last year's draft and saw Detroit picking Seider off the board because RHD is always hard to find (and thus is very valuable). It is not just an area of need in the Leafs' organization but in the also NHL. So a top-4 RHD should carry more value than a 2nd or 3rd liner. Lapierre has the chance to be a first liner (Button compares him to Bergeron) but his injury risk is a factor.

The concern with Schneider is whether his skating is good enough or will he be just a 5th to 6th defenceman like Luke Schenn. Reports seem to vary in opinions. I have seen clips where he sometimes look like Luke Schenn but when I watch him in live games (limited viewings) he looks fine. But his hockey IQ (defensive IQ) seems good and that to me is more important than skating. Nick Robertson's skating wasn't great last year but has improved a lot since then.

The only knock I have read on this guy is his offensive ceiling. The leafs are on short order on everything he brings and have lots of offence!

 

[aingefan]

And if Drysdale is there at 5 or 7 and there’s ANY talk of trading Marner or Nylander....
Those are my two teams to target.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Wow consider me disappointed that Schneider has this many votes. He is someone you take in the mid 20's, not at 15. Kaiden Guhle does everything better except he's left handed. Give me one of Gunler, Mercer, Lapierre, Reichel or Khuznutdinov if this is how the board shapes up.

 

[Duckrider]

We need RD. Not a center, not a winger, and n0t a LD. We need a shut down right Defenceman. What is so hard about this concept. Sure I like other players as well but we are not drafting top 10, we can pick for need.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He's being picked on our board because he's the perceived best right handed defenseman and it's our biggest organizational weakness. There's nobody who could honestly come in here and tell me with a straight face they've done extensive research on even these 31 players and tell me he's a better bet of having a significant NHL impact than 16 of them.

I have done extensive research, and I can say he is a better bet than at least 11 of them. The other 7 (two would be taken before 15) would be Quinn, Holloway, Mercer, Guhle, Zary, Amirov, and Bourque. Do I think Schneider is better than all of them? No, or at the very least not significantly enough to not consider trading down and letting the chips fall as they may rather than taking him at 15.

That being said, I think he is still good enough to be in that contention along with a number of other prospects. On the list provided above, I selected Mercer as he would possibly be the BPA, but my real choice would be to trade down since really there is no BPA at that spot with those options.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Wow consider me disappointed that Schneider has this many votes. He is someone you take in the mid 20's, not at 15. Kaiden Guhle does everything better except he's left handed. Give me one of Gunler, Mercer, Lapierre, Reichel or Khuznutdinov if this is how the board shapes up.

All but Mercer are probably larger reaches than Schneider. Gunler and Khusnutdinov especially. If both are not available at 44, then we are likely getting a pretty damn good faller at our pick.

Mercer is the only one worthy of 15, and I would still probably trade down.

 

[Maplebeasts]

All but Mercer are probably larger reaches than Schneider. Gunler and Khusnutdinov especially. If both are not available at 44, then we are likely getting a pretty damn good faller at our pick.

Mercer is the only one worthy of 15, and I would still probably trade down.

They are all high ceiling guys though, something Schneider is not. I'd probably either just take Mercer or trade down and target one of the other guys.

 

[Judas Tavares]

We need RD. Not a center, not a winger, and n0t a LD. We need a shut down right Defenceman. What is so hard about this concept. Sure I like other players as well but we are not drafting top 10, we can pick for need.

15 may still be a bit too early for this though. I get that reasoning outside for the first round, but not when there is still potential upside at 15. In 2013 after blowing a lead to Boston, we needed a shutdown centre. Well we took who we thought would be just that.... results have not panned out.

If Schneider is the BPA at 15, then you take him. Is he though? Or is he getting propped because this draft is so void of first round defencemen. I feel Haydn Fleury was taken in 2014 at his spot for the same reason. Some major upside was taken within the next 8 picks. Take the player because he is the BPA, not because he happens to fit such a specific need. Past the 1st round? I agree somewhat. This early, no.

 

[Cotton]

People keep saying trade down, for what though, GM’s don’t just trade down for the fun of it. Who is the target?

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Wow consider me disappointed that Schneider has this many votes. He is someone you take in the mid 20's, not at 15. Kaiden Guhle does everything better except he's left handed. Give me one of Gunler, Mercer, Lapierre, Reichel or Khuznutdinov if this is how the board shapes up.

I just listened to a podcast where Button talks about Gunler and he said he isn't a big fan of his because he has horrible effort and consistency issues where sometimes he'll only show up once every 4 games. I know its Button but if anyone says that, I see huge red flags. That's the kind of player we should be staying away from in the 1st round. We already have enough guys that we say play with no heart.

 

[Morgs]

I just listened to a podcast where Button talks about Gunler and he said he isn't a big fan of his because he has horrible effort and consistency issues where sometimes he'll only show up once every 4 games. I know its Button but if anyone says that, I see huge red flags. That's the kind of player we should be staying away from in the 1st round. We already have enough guys that we say play with no heart.

It depends on how you see players. Gunler is no Lucas Raymond where he's like a dog on a bone without the puck, but his analytics in his draft were spectacular in the SHL, especially defensively. If you think Nylander has effort & consistency issues, you'll hate Gunler from time to time like people do Willy. If you think Nylander is a cerebral player not wasting energy but using his body in effective ways, you'll appreciate what Gunler has to offer because his results are so effective.

There are certain things that stick with a player because a famous scout once said so, like how "Liljegren sucks defensively" even though he's greatly improved that part of his game to being a legit star in the AHL offensively and defensively. Gunler's is that he's "lazy and has a bad attitude" (sounds like a certain Willy Nylander on draft day) but it's just not true. Inconsistent definitely is though, but thats what you see when you don't see a guy like Robertson out there.

EDIT:

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

If Askarov falls and we don't trade for a future goalie by then. Snatch him up.

If not Schnieder looks like he could be a solid Muzzin Type.

 

[Schenn]

I don't mind Schneider as a prospect but not at 15. If this is how things play out, please trade down. I voted Khusnutdinov because I like what I've read about him, but I'd prefer the Leafs trade down and have a shot at him in the mid 20's. Was hoping for a faller, Askarov or Jarvis.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Here's the Draft Dynasty scouting report on Schneider. The guy hits like a Mack truck and is very solid in his own zone.

This is exactly what the leafs have been missing for the last 10 years.

 

[A1LeafNation]

We need RD. Not a center, not a winger, and n0t a LD. We need a shut down right Defenceman. What is so hard about this concept. Sure I like other players as well but we are not drafting top 10, we can pick for need.

I'd rather pick the BPA.

You can always trade or sign for need. What you can't do is trade for talent when you need it.

Remember when Montreal had the Hart trophy winner in Theodore but picked some kid named Carey Price. Never know what the future holds.

 

[Drew311]

I'd be tempted by Hendrix Lapierre but given positional needs....

The organization has basically no centers past Matthews and Tavares.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I'd rather pick the BPA.

You can always trade or sign for need. What you can't do is trade for talent when you need it.

Remember when Montreal had the Hart trophy winner in Theodore but picked some kid named Carey Price. Never know what the future holds.

Not always. Some types of players are very difficult to find. Big physical RHD who can play 20 minutes do not grow on trees.