He isn't waiving his NMC to come to Chicago and Hawks sure as f*** would not be taking his $11M cap hit and doing massive favor for Leafs without a sweetener in deal
Marleau dump cost Leafs a 1st rounder. Hawks would be getting a 1st+ to do this as it would likely require a buyout as Tavares would only waive to Chicago if it leads to him becoming FA
I think the logic would be (a) Hawks get a player that can be a stopgap player while prospects develop, give a bit more talent and another guy that can play PP1, to aid in Bedard's development and the team not getting obliterated every night, (b) obvious for Toronto, get out of of cap hit, use it for something else, (c) for Tavares, play somewhere with less pressure while still being a big market, a fresh start where he'll get a lot of ice time, opportunity but minus the circus aspect as he heads into a UFA season and potentially a place he might consider extending (Chicago to Toronto is a very easy trip if he's concerned with family) if the fit works out.
I doubt Toronto is interested if they have to pay a big premium just to get out of one year. Looking at the situation with their Defense, next year doesn't feel like the year to go "all in", they're going to need picks (since Dubas traded away so many towards the end) if they're going to sustain anything. Chicago has more space than it knows what to do with, so they'd hope that they could get away dumping for nothing as opposed to having to attach a major sweetener. They may consider retaining a small amount if they need to in order to make it work.
But really, the ball is in Tavares court probably more than anything because it's all moot if it's not a place he will waive to.