Inferno
Registered User
So, i've got this theory, and I'd like to either prove or disprove it with this writeup. I don't know what i'll find till i'm finished writing it.
My theory is this. A big reason that this team is better this year, is because of Tanner Glass...and how he's playing in Hartford, and not on the big club.
I'm also going to put Dominic Moore in that boat as well.
I've got a few difficulties with this assumption though...the first is that our 4th line has been incredibly difficult to lock down...it seems to change every game..so what ill do is to do a game by game analysis for this season, and more of an on the whole look for last season because its WAY too much work to look through 82 games (10 games is doable.)
Let's start with last season.
So i think most of us remember we had a somewhat of a carousel of characters as our 4th line...Tanner Glass and Moore were definitely 2 staples..but you also had Lindberg, Fasth, Paille, Megna, Hrivik, and Stalberg there as well. not to mention Emerson Etem..
So here's how I'm going to use this. I'm going to find the players whose 2 most common linemates (out of their top 4)(Forwards only) were Tanner Glass and Dominc Moore.
I'll then normalize the production of all the players as 1 line for 82 games.
It's not perfect, but its what im doing, so deal with it.
So you have our 4th line being some combination of this...
Tanner Glass
Dominic Moore
Viktor Stalberg
Daniel Paille
Marek Hrivik
Emerson Etem
Jared Stoll
Surprisingly Lindberg and Fasth didnt even qualify here, showing they both played likely over their heads...and i couldnt find Etem or Stoll because they were traded, on other teams and now had more most common linemates...i'm going to assume both played mostly on the 4th line going strictly off memory.
so those 5 players come out to the following total stats:
277 GP
20 G
29 A
49 P
If you were to assume your 4th line would play a total of 82 x 3 GP that comes out to 246 GP, and you'd normalize the stats to: 18G and 26A for 44 P..of course it is worth noting that a lot of this is artificially propped up by Stalberg putting up points on higher lines, but thats fine.
So, now we've looked at the rough production we got from our 4th line last year. Of course I'd love to go game by game here and look at what the 4th line did each game, but its way too much work...this was pretty quick and I'd wager the end result wouldn't be that far off of what we actually Got.
So next I'm going to look at all the GDTs and find the 4th lines for each game, and put up what they did.
One thing I did realize is that Grabner is listed as a 4th liner against the bolts and we know he was a 3rd liner, so i'll adjust for that game based on the GDT to not artificially inflate the numbers...
Here are the final numbers.
30GP
6G
4A
10P
to normalize that to 82 games it becomes
246 GP
49G
33A
82P
So just seeing it side by side from last year (top is last, bottom is this)
246GP 18G 26A 44P
246GP 49G 33A 82P
Again, its worth saying one more time that last seasons numbers arent super accurate because doing it game by game is really the only true way of seeing what production youre getting from your 4th line...
It's also worth saying that 10 games is not the same thing as 82 games...injuries happen, fill ins play, and production can ebb and flow.
But what's the entire point of this post?
Remember last season, when people like myself would constantly complain about Tanner Glass being in the lineup? And how many, many, MANY people would say...the 4th line is the least of our concerns...and how 1 4th liner doesnt make a big difference?
Stuff like that?
Yeah..no.
1 player...on 1 line can make a HUGE difference. Having a 4th line that can actually play hockey, score goals, and help your team is HUGE. when 1 player brings down an entire line, it needs to be discussed..and the head coach 100% needs to be held accountable.
Right now, I'm very happy with our 4th line. It doesnt always produce, but you ARE getting some production from them. even if its on the PP from Pirri firing a shot...or if its just Grabner getting an ENG. it's still production.
Goals are kinda important. Unless you have an elite possession 4th line like what we had with Boyle, Prust, and Dorsett that doesnt score much but plays in the other teams end the whole time...you need to get production out of your 4th line..it cant just be minutes you hold your breath. and yeah, that 1 guy on that 1 line...he can screw everything up sometimes.
/rant.
My theory is this. A big reason that this team is better this year, is because of Tanner Glass...and how he's playing in Hartford, and not on the big club.
I'm also going to put Dominic Moore in that boat as well.
I've got a few difficulties with this assumption though...the first is that our 4th line has been incredibly difficult to lock down...it seems to change every game..so what ill do is to do a game by game analysis for this season, and more of an on the whole look for last season because its WAY too much work to look through 82 games (10 games is doable.)
Let's start with last season.
So i think most of us remember we had a somewhat of a carousel of characters as our 4th line...Tanner Glass and Moore were definitely 2 staples..but you also had Lindberg, Fasth, Paille, Megna, Hrivik, and Stalberg there as well. not to mention Emerson Etem..
So here's how I'm going to use this. I'm going to find the players whose 2 most common linemates (out of their top 4)(Forwards only) were Tanner Glass and Dominc Moore.
I'll then normalize the production of all the players as 1 line for 82 games.
It's not perfect, but its what im doing, so deal with it.
So you have our 4th line being some combination of this...
Tanner Glass
Dominic Moore
Viktor Stalberg
Daniel Paille
Marek Hrivik
Emerson Etem
Jared Stoll
Surprisingly Lindberg and Fasth didnt even qualify here, showing they both played likely over their heads...and i couldnt find Etem or Stoll because they were traded, on other teams and now had more most common linemates...i'm going to assume both played mostly on the 4th line going strictly off memory.
so those 5 players come out to the following total stats:
277 GP
20 G
29 A
49 P
If you were to assume your 4th line would play a total of 82 x 3 GP that comes out to 246 GP, and you'd normalize the stats to: 18G and 26A for 44 P..of course it is worth noting that a lot of this is artificially propped up by Stalberg putting up points on higher lines, but thats fine.
So, now we've looked at the rough production we got from our 4th line last year. Of course I'd love to go game by game here and look at what the 4th line did each game, but its way too much work...this was pretty quick and I'd wager the end result wouldn't be that far off of what we actually Got.
So next I'm going to look at all the GDTs and find the 4th lines for each game, and put up what they did.
One thing I did realize is that Grabner is listed as a 4th liner against the bolts and we know he was a 3rd liner, so i'll adjust for that game based on the GDT to not artificially inflate the numbers...
Here are the final numbers.
30GP
6G
4A
10P
to normalize that to 82 games it becomes
246 GP
49G
33A
82P
So just seeing it side by side from last year (top is last, bottom is this)
246GP 18G 26A 44P
246GP 49G 33A 82P
Again, its worth saying one more time that last seasons numbers arent super accurate because doing it game by game is really the only true way of seeing what production youre getting from your 4th line...
It's also worth saying that 10 games is not the same thing as 82 games...injuries happen, fill ins play, and production can ebb and flow.
But what's the entire point of this post?
Remember last season, when people like myself would constantly complain about Tanner Glass being in the lineup? And how many, many, MANY people would say...the 4th line is the least of our concerns...and how 1 4th liner doesnt make a big difference?
Stuff like that?
Yeah..no.
1 player...on 1 line can make a HUGE difference. Having a 4th line that can actually play hockey, score goals, and help your team is HUGE. when 1 player brings down an entire line, it needs to be discussed..and the head coach 100% needs to be held accountable.
Right now, I'm very happy with our 4th line. It doesnt always produce, but you ARE getting some production from them. even if its on the PP from Pirri firing a shot...or if its just Grabner getting an ENG. it's still production.
Goals are kinda important. Unless you have an elite possession 4th line like what we had with Boyle, Prust, and Dorsett that doesnt score much but plays in the other teams end the whole time...you need to get production out of your 4th line..it cant just be minutes you hold your breath. and yeah, that 1 guy on that 1 line...he can screw everything up sometimes.
/rant.
