Nah pens should still be favored.
I'm not kidding when I say our PK is a joke. In fact it's worse in actuality than it is statistically. (Because for much of the season Vasi had an unsustainably high PK save %) Many of our players are solid at it (heds Strals Danny Baeden Yanni Cally) but it doesn't matter because Coburn is a human goal-against out there. Also, Vasilevskiy has trouble with screened shots. It's by far his biggest weakness now that his glove hand and rebound control are decent.
I still think Tampa's 5-on-5 advantage enables them to overcome that weakness, especially being able to pick their match-ups at home.
Hard to ignore the fact that the Penguins are a bad road team, IMO because they aren't getting on the power-play as much as they do at home which limits their ability to score.
If the situation was reversed and Pittsburgh had home ice-advantage, I'd take the Pens in 6 or 7 because of how good they are at home. But I think it's fair to say that's not going to happen.
If Tampa is able to capitalize on that advantage and go out to a 2-0 series lead, I don't think Pittsburgh will be able to overcome that.
But since I am so certain about this, the Pens will likely sweep Tampa