Prospect Info: Tampa Bay Lightning prospect rankings 2015 - #5

[Necropolis]

The winner of poll #4 - Adam Erne

13-14 STATS

| GP | Goals | Assists | Points
Regular season (QMJHL) | 60 | 41 | 45 | 86
Playoffs (QMJHL) | 22 | 21 | 9 | 30 |

Tampa Bay Lightning prospect rankings 2014
1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (85.71%)
2. Anthony DeAngelo (73.81%)
3. Slater Koekkoek (70.59%)
4. Adam Erne (82.86%)

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[Necropolis]

Really tough pick between Nesterov and Point for me on this one - even though I've really liked Nesterov ever since I saw him play in the WJC's (2012, I think) and he has shown that he can be a quality player in the NHL, I don't think he has the upside that Point has. Nesterov will be a solid top-4 defenseman but Point is just such a diverse, talented guy. I'll go with Point here, Nesterov's next on my board.

 

[Rschmitz]

I like our D prospects a lot more than the offensive prospects

 

[LightningStrikes]

I like our D prospects a lot more than the offensive prospects

Yeah, how times have changed huh?


Going with Nesty!

 

[Stamper]

Gotta go with Nesty here

 

[HoseEmDown]

Nesterov is easily the most overrated prospect. He's good but I don't see the big time upside some others do. His own zone play has improved but still not very good especially for someone who might play in the top 4, which I think will keep him from being a top 4 player.

Yan has 40 goal top line potential to me. Chances he hits that are slim but I'll take that over bottom 6, 2nd/3rd pair potential which everyone left has.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Nesterov is easily the most overrated prospect. He's good but I don't see the big time upside some others do. His own zone play has improved but still not very good especially for someone who might play in the top 4, which I think will keep him from being a top 4 player.

Yan has 40 goal top line potential to me. Chances he hits that are slim but I'll take that over bottom 6, 2nd/3rd pair potential which everyone left has.

This is the cool thing to say here but in fact it's absolute BS. How can Nesterov be the most overrated prospect when his fanboys are constantly reminded by the other part of the crowd he's nothing special, because of a subconscious bias due to draft position and that's what the scouting report once said. Well no prospect developed faster than Nesterov in 14-15, period.
Is he better than anyone listed above, probably not but the kid was supposed to spent another year on bottom pairing in the A to fix his turrible defense and decision making. Nothing to be ashamed of but it's true playoffs level were a bit much for him. He still finished the NHL regular season playing 20 respectable minutes with legit PP time against desperate teams trying to sneak in the playoffs. For what it's worth his advanced metrics were top class, withs or withouts, even in the playoffs where it's true he was immensely used as an offensive contributor and sheltered. All those highly drafted prospects look flawless against soft competition but their weaknesses, and they all have weaknesses, will be exposed once they enter the big circus. People get carried away with that stuff, all the time, it's a natural process but there will be hiccups and disappointments. That's why I personally stopped watching the A several years (god that was expensive) because there's nothing on planet earth that comes close to NHL hockey. How the lads mentally, physically, sportively react to such an hostile environment is the only thing that really matters, the rest is definitely fun but cheap talk.
By the fact they didn't look completely outclassed over a semi-extended NHL experience Vasy and Nesterov are tangibly the only prospects to have proven something in the end, even though it remains extremely little, it commands a kind of appreciation in my opinion. #5 is a pretty fair position for the Nest.

Thanks for your time bud.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

got to go with peca think you all got this wrong and after a couple months in syracuse you will see that this kid is a beast others have said the kid is like tyjo

to me i havent saw as much as i would like to but the kid hits the stats hes a beast he plays big he does the little things that make everyone around him productive he will finish his hits and like said plays bigger then his size hes fearless and can pass and score

those of you still riding high on point over him give me a break if that happens wow will be shocked peca is the guy you will all come to love soon

i get nesterov but dont see the upside a lot of you do he is gonna be a solid top four defender but wind up way behind the guys we have which is awesome honestly but he does not have koekkoeks upside to me or even close much less to say he has upside of say tony d lol

im not that high on point myself he will be ok and maybe wind up in nhl i doubt he makes it on our team in the future myself

to me stephens will bring a better option among others

 

[CupsOverCash]

I picked Point. Nesty has potential to be a nice player but I don't think he will be nearly the impact player Point can be.

 

[HoseEmDown]

This is the cool thing to say here but in fact it's absolute BS. How can Nesterov be the most overrated prospect when his fanboys are constantly reminded by the other part of the crowd he's nothing special, because of a subconscious bias due to draft position and that's what the scouting report once said. Well no prospect developed faster than Nesterov in 14-15, period.
Is he better than anyone listed above, probably not but the kid was supposed to spent another year on bottom pairing in the A to fix his turrible defense and decision making. Nothing to be ashamed of but it's true playoffs level were a bit much for him. He still finished the NHL regular season playing 20 respectable minutes with legit PP time against desperate teams trying to sneak in the playoffs. For what it's worth his advanced metrics were top class, withs or withouts, even in the playoffs where it's true he was immensely used as an offensive contributor and sheltered. All those highly drafted prospects look flawless against soft competition but their weaknesses, and they all have weaknesses, will be exposed once they enter the big circus. People get carried away with that stuff, all the time, it's a natural process but there will be hiccups and disappointments. That's why I personally stopped watching the A several years (god that was expensive) because there's nothing on planet earth that comes close to NHL hockey. How the lads mentally, physically, sportively react to such an hostile environment is the only thing that really matters, the rest is definitely fun but cheap talk.
By the fact they didn't look completely outclassed over a semi-extended NHL experience Vasy and Nesterov are tangibly the only prospects to have proven something in the end, even though it remains extremely little, it commands a kind of appreciation in my opinion. #5 is a pretty fair position for the Nest.

Thanks for your time bud.

I never mentioned draft position once when talking about Nesterov so not sure how I'm bias against him for that? Nesterov was not playing 20 minutes a night late in the season, I don't remember that at all.

He did have a breakout year in the A, he was called up ahead of Koekkoek because the plan was to keep Koekkoek down all year but was forced up due to injuries. Nesterov looked good because of being sheltered and put in a position to excel. He was merely asked to be the 4th forward whenever on the ice which he does well, his own zone is his issue.

He's had issues on the defensive side in the KHL, AHL and NHL. He masks some of that with his offensive game and transition play but if given 20 non sheltered minutes a night would be exposed. He can be a good offensive #4 in this league with a strong defensive partner but nothing more. Someone like Blujus can be a #4 too and not a liability in his own zone which I find much more important.

 

[MattM92]

Nesterov is what we were hoping Barbs would be. A bottom pairing OFD. His ideal role would be playing 16 minutes a game with 4-6 minutes of PP time. He's very good in the offensive third but isn't going to be able to battle top 6 NHL forwards for 18 minutes a game over an 82 game season.

My pick here is Point. He has dynamic talent and is going to be a top 6 player in this league.

 

[Todd1a]

I had a hard time with this between peca and point I went with point over peca with a slight edge.

 

[MattM92]

I had a hard time with this between peca and point I went with point over peca with a slight edge.

Agreed. Peca is also 3 years older than Point, that should be taken into consideration when comparing the two.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I never mentioned draft position once when talking about Nesterov so not sure how I'm bias against him for that? Nesterov was not playing 20 minutes a night late in the season, I don't remember that at all.

He did have a breakout year in the A, he was called up ahead of Koekkoek because the plan was to keep Koekkoek down all year but was forced up due to injuries. Nesterov looked good because of being sheltered and put in a position to excel. He was merely asked to be the 4th forward whenever on the ice which he does well, his own zone is his issue.

He's had issues on the defensive side in the KHL, AHL and NHL. He masks some of that with his offensive game and transition play but if given 20 non sheltered minutes a night would be exposed. He can be a good offensive #4 in this league with a strong defensive partner but nothing more. Someone like Blujus can be a #4 too and not a liability in his own zone which I find much more important.

Nesterov's defense was on a different level just between January and the start of the playoffs, He was 19 entering the KHL when dmen tend to peak around 27, he can get better if he wants to. NN is never going to be a great defensive defenseman but his progression from liability to almost ok is the main reason why he definitely passed Barberio late in the season, the coaching staff was already well aware of what he's capable offensively. I honestly would be thrilled if he'd become a #4, we can agree on that.


You can see in the game log Cooper wanted to test Nesterov over the last 5 games in the RS once Garrison got injured, and honestly that's quietly promising.

22:11, 5 SOG
19:38, 4 SOG
21:18, 4 SOG, 1 goal
19:06, 2 SOG, 1 assist
19:39, 2 SOG, 1 goal

+2 first playoffs games
17:01, 3 SOG, 1 goal
18:49, 0 SOG, 2 assists

 

[Stamper]

I never mentioned draft position once when talking about Nesterov so not sure how I'm bias against him for that? Nesterov was not playing 20 minutes a night late in the season, I don't remember that at all.

He did have a breakout year in the A, he was called up ahead of Koekkoek because the plan was to keep Koekkoek down all year but was forced up due to injuries. Nesterov looked good because of being sheltered and put in a position to excel. He was merely asked to be the 4th forward whenever on the ice which he does well, his own zone is his issue.

He's had issues on the defensive side in the KHL, AHL and NHL. He masks some of that with his offensive game and transition play but if given 20 non sheltered minutes a night would be exposed. He can be a good offensive #4 in this league with a strong defensive partner but nothing more. Someone like Blujus can be a #4 too and not a liability in his own zone which I find much more important.

Blujus can be a top 4? -_-
You're aware that peeps that can only do D and nothing offensively are always at 6 or at best 5? You need solid passing game and offensive talent to be effective beyond 10 minutes of icetime, and I'm pretty confident Blujus will never have either.

Nestea on the other hand has shown progress on the defensive third, and that's really all you want to see from a 22 year old offensive dman.

 

[Hoek]

I went with Nesterov because he is showing he can have immediate impact. It'll be interesting to see if he can pick up where he left off on the PP. Someone who doesn't futz around and gets shots through consistently could be a boon.

 

[Callum]

Had to go with Peca as I feel like he's a sure thing to have a long NHL career.

 

[Necropolis]

Blujus can be a top 4? -_-
You're aware that peeps that can only do D and nothing offensively are always at 6 or at best 5? You need solid passing game and offensive talent to be effective beyond 10 minutes of icetime, and I'm pretty confident Blujus will never have either.

Nestea on the other hand has shown progress on the defensive third, and that's really all you want to see from a 22 year old offensive dman.

You don't need to have offensive skills to be a top-4 defenseman in the NHL - think about guys like Hjalmarsson, Alzner, Greene, Vlasic etc. The important thing is that the defenseman can handle the puck and make safe, smart passes out of the zone but that doesn't equal offensive skills. Besides, Blujus isn't an offensive black hole; he's actually a pretty smart player with the puck and can play PP as well (though if he does become an NHL player, I doubt that he'll put up huge numbers).

 

[Stamper]

You don't need to have offensive skills to be a top-4 defenseman in the NHL - think about guys like Hjalmarsson, Alzner, Greene, Vlasic etc. The important thing is that the defenseman can handle the puck and make safe, smart passes out of the zone but that doesn't equal offensive skills. Besides, Blujus isn't an offensive black hole; he's actually a pretty smart player with the puck and can play PP as well (though if he does become an NHL player, I doubt that he'll put up huge numbers).

Hjalmarsson, Alzner and Vlasic have all put up decent points in the NHL, so they do have offensive talent, and my 'good passing game'-argument is pretty much what you said about being a good passer is good, right???

And sure, he is smart with he puck, but that doesn't change the fact that he's at best a career 0.4 PPG defender, 0.33 at AHL first season, and Dmen with statlines like those are usually 5th defenders. Since Blujus hasnt, yet, shown anything that would suggest otherwise, I think we can agree that Nesterov has somewhat more potential than Blujus?

And doing PP=/= Having offensive skills....

 

[Necropolis]

Hjalmarsson, Alzner and Vlasic have all put up decent points in the NHL, so they do have offensive talent, and my 'good passing game'-argument is pretty much what you said about being a good passer is good, right???

And sure, he is smart with he puck, but that doesn't change the fact that he's at best a career 0.4 PPG defender, 0.33 at AHL first season, and Dmen with statlines like those are usually 5th defenders. Since Blujus hasnt, yet, shown anything that would suggest otherwise, I think we can agree that Nesterov has somewhat more potential than Blujus?

And doing PP=/= Having offensive skills....

Only one of those three guys have broken 30 points in their career (Vlasic once) and otherwise have been putting up around 20-25 points in a season. Now, I'm not saying that that kind of production is bad for a defensive defenseman but by your standards those are bottom-pairing numbers.

Well, for instance Nesterov had a PPG of 0.3 on his first AHL season - and I'd say that that's pretty solid PPG for a 21 year old prospect D-man. He also put up 1 point in his 45 KHL regular season games. PPG doesn't really tell the whole story, especially when it comes to prospects; Blujus hasn't got huge offensive potential but he definitely knows what he's doing with the puck. Now, he definitely isn't the kind of defenseman that'll ever put up even 35+ point seasons, he simply doesn't play very risky game and isn't good enough skater for creating a ton offense but that's not a requirement for a top-4 D-man, if you ask from me.

And yes, I personally believe that Nesterov is a better prospect and obviously more offensively skilled. I just disagree with your other statements.

 

[LightningStrikes]

I never mentioned draft position once when talking about Nesterov so not sure how I'm bias against him for that? Nesterov was not playing 20 minutes a night late in the season, I don't remember that at all.

He did have a breakout year in the A, he was called up ahead of Koekkoek because the plan was to keep Koekkoek down all year but was forced up due to injuries. Nesterov looked good because of being sheltered and put in a position to excel. He was merely asked to be the 4th forward whenever on the ice which he does well, his own zone is his issue.

He's had issues on the defensive side in the KHL, AHL and NHL. He masks some of that with his offensive game and transition play but if given 20 non sheltered minutes a night would be exposed. He can be a good offensive #4 in this league with a strong defensive partner but nothing more. Someone like Blujus can be a #4 too and not a liability in his own zone which I find much more important.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

reverse hosed

 

[Hoek]

Boom.

 

[HoseEmDown]

So he had a five game stretch of 20 minutes when the team was missing a few players. You also didn't show that three of those games went into OT so there is additional minutes to be played.

In those five games in which we won 3 of them he was still a minus player. We only played one playoff team in that stretch too. 2 of his 3 points on the PP. I just don't see a top 4 player there. He won't be getting the PP time he needs to produce in the future with DeAngelo, Hedman and Stralman around.

 

[LightningStrikes]

So he had a five game stretch of 20 minutes when the team was missing a few players. You also didn't show that three of those games went into OT so there is additional minutes to be played.

In those five games in which we won 3 of them he was still a minus player. We only played one playoff team in that stretch too. 2 of his 3 points on the PP. I just don't see a top 4 player there. He won't be getting the PP time he needs to produce in the future with DeAngelo, Hedman and Stralman around.

Worst case he'll turn out to be MAB 2.0. A playoff PP specialist with a good shot and crisp passing. Best case he's a reliable defenseman with great offensive upside capable of playing 2nd pairing minutes. Still quite some time left for him to develop into the latter.