Talking The Avs Ep 14 - “One of the goaltenders are getting movedâ€

[Thepoolmaster]

What is the 'IPP' stat?

Edit : Oh and does this mean O'Reilly is an over paid third line center, or does it mean Soderberg is an underrated #1 center?

On a serious note, I was really pissed that when we brought in Boedker, Soda was the one that lost his spot on the power play. He was really good there, and some how despite all that Roy still felt like it was justified to keep Comeau there. As well as continue to give Holden shifts on the power play.

We had Duchene, MacKinnon, Iginla, and Grigorenko that could all help on face-offs. So I don't think Comeau's face-off ability was enough of an excuse IMO.

That was one of the dumbest things Roy did all year.

MacKinnon, Duchene, Grigorenko, Boedker, Landeskog, Iginla, Soderberg, Barrie, EJ, FB, Zadorov and Bigras all should have been on the power play before Holden, Comeau, or Mitchell.

Haven't listened yet but will.

Just saw your edit regarding Comeau over soderberg. IMO it's because Comeau was actually willing to shoot. Soderberg, grigorenko Duchene would most likely be way too much passing. I disagree with it but I think that is where Roy was at with it.

Hoping we don't trade Varly. Think it would be a mistake. While I like pickards game a lot of "elite" backups just can't cut it as starters. Bernier would be the specific example that comes to mind.

 

[CobraAcesS]

It was good to see him figuring out how to keep his game up with backups work. Varly is more talented but I'd say his highs are higher and his lows are lower. IF the move is made they can't just roll out picks as the starter and call it good. They'll need to get a good vet backup like a Jiggy and split the starts 50-30.

Comeau on the PP was about him being a right shot I think. I agree they needed Soda's passing.

The only guy I see potentially available as a veteran backup is Ward though. That's without one coming as part of a trade of course.

Most of the other guys seem like career backups or guys who were on the fringe and couldn't take the next step.

 

[flyfysher]

ROR
5v5 Pts/60: 1.35
5v5 Shots/60: 5.28
PP Pts/60: 5.77
CF% Rel TM: 0.9%
5v5 IPP: 68.6%

SODA
5v5 Pts/60: 1.52
5v5 Shots/60: 6.21
PP Pts/60: 4.55
CF% Rel TM: 0.8%
5v5 IPP: 71.1%

Thanks RobinDIF. I am not a stat guy but from what I can glean (and correct me if I'm wrong), Soderberg was a good investment and excellent value based on their contract terms ($) in terms of replacing ROR. I especially thought Soderberg was very good in protecting the puck despite pressure. It was very noticeable compared to how Holden handles the puck under pressure.

 

[CB Joe]

It was nice hearing someone point out that the forwards need to be better in the defensive zone. It seems like a lot of people want to blame the team's poor defense on Holden playing on the second pair. The whole team in a mess in the defensive zone and better coaching will go a longer way than bumping Holden down to 10 minutes a game. Even if the Avs add another top 4 defensman in the off-season I wouldn't expect much change under the current system.

 

[flyfysher]

It was nice hearing someone point out that the forwards need to be better in the defensive zone. It seems like a lot of people want to blame the team's poor defense on Holden playing on the second pair. The whole team in a mess in the defensive zone and better coaching will go a longer way than bumping Holden down to 10 minutes a game. Even if the Avs add another top 4 defensman in the off-season I wouldn't expect much change under the current system.

I agree about the need for better coaching (I am referring to the assistant coaches) and more specifically the system the Avs employ. I am not convinced it is just the forwards' play because they consistently had a high number of blocked shots while the opponent would just keep cycling the puck in the Avs zone. Therefore, the Avs were weak in possessing the puck. It was just the way the system was set-up IMO.

Holden is serviceable as a third pairing D-man. But he should not be playing more than spot duty on the second pairing and certainly not first pairing. Nor should he be getting as many minutes of playing time as he did. There is no denying Holden does not handle possessing the puck well under pressure and he ices it a lot. That does not even begin to address his defensive lapses that led to goals against.

 

[henchman21]

I'm listening now:

Few of my thoughts:

-I think there is a lot of blame to go around, but without the final slide, I don't think much more could have been expected out of the roster. 90 would have been decent 92-94 was expectation and 98 would have been a good year. So they underperformed, but clean up a few things and don't have the throwing in the towel... I don't think they were far off, but everybody needs to improve.

-IMO expecting top 10 level goaltending out of Varly isn't expecting too much. A case can be made that if the Avs got that, they make the playoffs. He wasn't incredibly disappointing, but he was a bit. I think the two seasons of average play combined with the injuries is what makes the Avs move on from Varly.

-I don't see the handedness bias of Roy. Guenin pretty much played a season on the left. Beauch played the right anytime he played with Z. Stuart played the right down the stretch last year. IIRC Benoit played the right a lot. We have seen a lot of games where players played their off hand over the past few years. Just because Barrie and EJ mostly stay on the right doesn't mean Roy has a big handedness bias.

-A Barrie-EJ pairing is the best possible pairing, but I don't think it is likely it happens. I hope I'm wrong there as it would allow the best bottom 4 (Z-Beauch, Bigras-RD in UFA). EJ needs to be better if he is going to be the #1 here, but he may not just be completely capable in that role. We will know next year for sure.

-I think with Landy, you know what you are going to get at this point. If he plays near 80 games he will pot somewhere in the mid 20s in goals, mid to high 30s in assists and a physical two way presence. If people expect more than that, they expect too much.

-MacK... it was a disappointing season. It started off well, but he needs to clean up his game. Dario's point on him going out and the team changing is spot on... I didn't think of it in that terms before, but I heard it and it made total sense. The dynamic did change and couldn't be replaced. He does drive a significant part of the team now and should. He improves, this team will drastically improve.

-The biggest coaching flaw I want to see corrected is there are too many little adjustments constantly. I want Roy to be more strict on implementing a system they believe in. He isn't committed enough to a few styles of play, and it shows. I hear that he isn't quick enough to react, I don't see that. I see too many small adjustments and not enough forcing their will on teams. They correct and correct and over correct constantly. During a period between late Dec and late Feb there were 4 different primary neutral zone systems used. IMO that is quick adjustment, but too much adjustment. Roy is slower to make large scale changes, but he makes a ton of changes.

-I think coaching changes are coming... they won't be as drastic as people want, but they are coming.

-I'm pretty certain we see some significant personnel changes. There is a lot in the air with the cap, potential free agents, and players underperforming... combining that with missing the playoffs for a second straight year, they won't stand pat. I don't think the jettison all of the core or even multiple pieces, but one and some surrounding pieces will be swapped around.

-The center issues in the defensive zone is spot on, and I think mostly caused by there not being a designated center in the defensive zone under Roy. It is almost always the first forward back... or the best defensive forward in the group (Landy and ROR, when on wing, have played a lot down low). This causes a lot of confusion on reads when they are roughly back at the same point, and a number of the wingers haven't been used to a center role in a number of years. I'd like to see the centers being leaned on more (this did start happening more and more as the season wore on).

-Bigras, Z, and Rantanen will probably all be up for the whole season. How they pair up the defense will be interesting, but they will find a way.

-I fully believe the Rantanen at center is for a reason... they want a big C in the top 6 and they want to see what he had in that area so they have a better idea of what they needed to target this summer in the draft and younger players.

 

[AvsRobin]

Great feedback Hency.

I agree with you on Roy that it's too many minor adjustments, this goes for line juggling as well. Not as much in 15/16, but during the beginning of 14/15 he could change up the lines several times a game. Gladly it wasn't that bad this year.

I do disagree about Varly. I love the player. But can we EXPECT top 10 goaltending from him? He could give us that in a good year, but can we expect it?

If we back the tape to before the season and ask ourselves, where has Varly ranked in the league previous? Ok, since moving to the Avs in 2011 to 2015. He has played just over 12.000 minutes for us. If we search around the league between 2011-2015 and set the bar at minimum 7500 minutes of goaltending, we get exactly 30 goaltenders. One starter per team. Where does Varly rank among these 30 in terms of save percentage between 2011-2015? 9th. And it's extremely close between a a handfull of goalies.

9-14th is pretty much even. And pretty much around there is where I EXPECT Varly to be. But he surely has the talent to jump up a year or two from time to time. But we also have to accept that he might not be amongst the best 15 every year.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

There's a huge difference in pre-Allaire and post-Allaire Varly though. His stats since Allaire took over would rank him as a top 6 or 7 goaltender.

 

[henchman21]

Great feedback Hency.

I agree with you on Roy that it's too many minor adjustments, this goes for line juggling as well. Not as much in 15/16, but during the beginning of 14/15 he could change up the lines several times a game. Gladly it wasn't that bad this year.

I do disagree about Varly. I love the player. But can we EXPECT top 10 goaltending from him? He could give us that in a good year, but can we expect it?

If we back the tape to before the season and ask ourselves, where has Varly ranked in the league previous? Ok, since moving to the Avs in 2011 to 2015. He has played just over 12.000 minutes for us. If we search around the league between 2011-2015 and set the bar at minimum 7500 minutes of goaltending, we get exactly 30 goaltenders. One starter per team. Where does Varly rank among these 30 in terms of save percentage between 2011-2015? 9th. And it's extremely close between a a handfull of goalies.

9-14th is pretty much even. And pretty much around there is where I EXPECT Varly to be. But he surely has the talent to jump up a year or two from time to time. But we also have to accept that he might not be amongst the best 15 every year.

I certainly think we can expect that out of him. He is paid like a top 10 goalie (currently 12th in the NHL, but at least 4 contracts have taken effect after his deal started), if he is going to be taking up 5.9m on the cap... he has to perform like that level of player. It is the same expectation anywhere else in the lineup too... now that EJ is going to get paid $6m, he has to start playing like a $6m player. Having a 5.9m cap hit for a goalie that over the past two seasons ranks 30th for 5v5 sv% (according to war on ice, min 2500 5v5 minutes played over the 2 seasons) is simply too much for that level of play. This season... of goalies that player 30 or more games, Varly ranked 26th for even strength save percentage according to the NHL. Just looking at the Avs over the past couple seasons... Berra has a combined .933 over 33 game EV and Pickard has .934... Varly is .920. Varly isn't even reaching Anderson/Fleury levels over that period. If Varly had a ~4m cap hit... I'd be perfectly fine with the level of goaltending he is providing, but he has a 5.9m cap hit. There is a different level of expectations that comes from that.

Beyond that, we all know that Varly is really talented and when he is on his game he is probably a top 5 level. He has been just so inconsistent that it drags him down. As TV said, his lows are very low. That shouldn't happen nearly as often as it does... if his low stretches were in the 900-910 range instead of the 880-895 range, his numbers would be far better and he'd be earning his contract quite easily. I'd personally take a more consistent .915 goalie for half or a third of the price than Varly being up and down at .915 for 5.9m.

In the end... I'd even be happier with top 15 level goaltending out of Varly (I probably wouldn't be saying much), but we haven't even gotten that over the past 2 seasons.

There's a huge difference in pre-Allaire and post-Allaire Varly though. His stats since Allaire took over would rank him as a top 6 or 7 goaltender.

They really don't portray that picture... Varly's last 2 seasons have been pretty mediocre. 13-14 was excellent... that has been it.

 

[AvsRobin]

There's a huge difference in pre-Allaire and post-Allaire Varly though. His stats since Allaire took over would rank him as a top 6 or 7 goaltender.

16th since Allaire if we look at 5v5, him being outstanding on the PK pushes him to 8th 2013-2016 in all situations. (Minimum 6000 minutes)

 

[Cousin Eddie]

He was tied with Rask for 7th like two weeks before the season ended. Then he didn't stop a puck for like the last 4 games

But yeah I looked at all situations since goaltenders are needed in all situations. It's not like when you look at forwards who kill a lot of penalties and their all situations stats are deflated or a powerplay specialist whose stat's are in inflated. I see no reason to compare goaltenders even strength stats unless you're sat around a bar and made a bet with someone on it.

 

[henchman21]

Even if we knock back to 2 years and all situations (minimum 3000 minutes), Varly is 20th. 4000 minutes takes out Gibson, Neuvirth, and Griess, putting Varly at 17th. Varly rocked 13-14... he was just behind Rask.

An interesting Pickard stat... if you put in 1500 minute minimum over the past two seasons... Pickard is 4th behind Price, Hammond, and Raanta in overall save percentage.

 

[Former Ladder]

Even if we knock back to 2 years and all situations (minimum 3000 minutes), Varly is 20th. 4000 minutes takes out Gibson, Neuvirth, and Griess, putting Varly at 17th. Varly rocked 13-14... he was just behind Rask.

An interesting Pickard stat... if you put in 1500 minute minimum over the past two seasons... Pickard is 4th behind Price, Hammond, and Raanta in overall save percentage.

Picks is an anomaly to me. I don't really feel that is has starting potential and I don't really feel at ease with him in net but he keeps putting up good games, generally 4 of 5 games are good for him. I don't know if teams just don't know him enough to exploit his weaknesses or if his style is just unorthodox enough that he makes it work but does not look like it will work (like Crawford).

His tracking is much better than Varly's and he is a lot calmer than Varly but he has nowhere near the athleticism or potential (though Varly's inconsistency has marred his potential). I'm not sure how I would feel giving Picks the keys to the net next season. Ideally, we can sign Reimer and roll a 1A, 1B but I don't know where Reimer looks to go. He probably wants his own #1 role on a team, maybe Calgary.

 

[henchman21]

I think the only real question with Picks is if he can handle a 50-60 game workload (that is a pretty substantial question). If he can, I think he can be a solid NHL starter. He won't be elite by any standard, but he is good enough to steal some games (as he has shown) but never down enough to cost a bunch of games (he will have some bad games). I feel that if he can handle the workload, he will be a fairly consistent ~.920 goalie. Where you pretty much know what you are getting on a nightly basis.

 

[Former Ladder]

I think the only real question with Picks is if he can handle a 50-60 game workload (that is a pretty substantial question). If he can, I think he can be a solid NHL starter. He won't be elite by any standard, but he is good enough to steal some games (as he has shown) but never down enough to cost a bunch of games (he will have some bad games). I feel that if he can handle the workload, he will be a fairly consistent ~.920 goalie. Where you pretty much know what you are getting on a nightly basis.

That is probably what it comes down to. I think he can be a consistent goalie in a similar ilk to Elliot (though maybe not as good as Elliot) that does not really wow you or put up the best numbers all the time but you know what you are getting. That is probably pretty appealing to the powers of the Avs after Varly's roller coaster of ups and downs.

I think if we rolled with Picks full time that we probably need to score at least 3 goals a game to win consistently and every once in a while Picks will just have a bad game. I see him having a handful of games where he allows just one but will mostly allow 2-3 goals most of the season.

 

[cgf]

I watch Brian Elliott play for the Blues and I worry that's the best Pickard will ever be. I'm not losing Varly for that caliber of goalie, regardless of how adorable he is.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Pickard won't bring the level of play that Varly can but with the expansion draft looming, their difference in pay and let's be real, we are desperate for the types of futures this deal could bring, it unfortunately is starting to make some sense.

 

[henchman21]

We are going off topic here, but Elliott level wouldn't be a good enough starter if that is what Picks became. There are different levels here... Elliott level isn't good enough, Budaj level isn't good enough for a starter (as a backup it would be plenty fine), Fleury/Anderson... that might be good enough for the right salary. To move Varly and move towards starting Picks, you take the gamble that he will develop into that mid tier starting goalie.

Pickard won't bring the level of play that Varly can but with the expansion draft looming, their difference in pay and let's be real, we are desperate for the types of futures this deal could bring, it unfortunately is starting to make some sense.

I agree with this... it is a huge risk, but the gamble is based around the futures from Varly and cap space make up the difference between Varly and Picks.

 

[cgf]

I get that the expansion draft is a factor, but the goalie position isn't one this franchise should be taking huge risks with. And trusting Picks to reach that upper limit to his talent, is a huge risk still.

PS, since when has this franchise actually cared about futures? The cap space I can see them placing enough value on to do something stupid, but the futures? Let's be real.

 

[henchman21]

I get that the expansion draft is a factor, but the goalie position isn't one this franchise should be taking huge risks with. And trusting Picks to reach that upper limit to his talent, is a huge risk still.

PS, since when has this franchise actually cared about futures? The cap space I can see them placing enough value on to do something stupid, but the futures? Let's be real.

It absolutely is a risk. It would be a calculated one though.

I'll go out on a limb (I'm not going far out) and say the futures that the Avs get back would be futures that would have a NHL impact very soon. A young player or players that will provide AHL depth or play in the NHL now.

The ROR trade was all about futures. Yeah they expected Z to help this past season, but it was about Z 3-4-5 years from now.

 

[cgf]

Maybe in a year or two it becomes a calculated risk. At this point it would be a blind gamble.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I get that the expansion draft is a factor, but the goalie position isn't one this franchise should be taking huge risks with. And trusting Picks to reach that upper limit to his talent, is a huge risk still.

PS, since when has this franchise actually cared about futures? The cap space I can see them placing enough value on to do something stupid, but the futures? Let's be real.

Of course they don't care, it would be a forced caring. They need to care about it, they need to stumble upon a few assets but it would be a byproduct of such move, not the reason.

PS I think you need a hug today CGF

 

[henchman21]

Maybe in a year or two it becomes a calculated risk. At this point it would be a blind gamble.

Hypothetically... the cap space could be used for Radulov and the trade could be for a solid young NHL player... I won't put something out here, but I'll throw a comparable out from a team that wouldn't be in the running... a Rychel (better IMO) sort of level of young player. I'd call that pretty calculated.

 

[tigervixxxen]

 

[InjuredChoker]

that's it.


get rid of him.