Talking The Avs Ep 14 - “One of the goaltenders are getting movedâ€

[AvsRobin]

Robin, Jackie and Dario discuss what went wrong in 15/16 and what might happen during this offseason.

http://talkingtheavs.podbean.com/

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[The Mars Volchenkov]

Nice podcast. I disagree with TV about the forwards being the problem. Sure, it isn't the best forward core, but a combination of a poor blueline and a bizarre breakout system make them look worse than they are. It's hard to score goals when you're stuck in your end most of the game defending.

I'd actually be surprised if both Varly and Pickard are on the team next year, so I fully expect one of them to be dealt. I'm just not sure which one it will be.

 

[tigervixxxen]

It's not so much the ones we have are the problem but it's still not good enough. Only really having 3 top 6 forwards isn't going to get the job done. Maybe a great 6 is too much wishful thinking but they need at least 1-2 more. Stuffing through Tangs/Iggy's decline, only having Boedker for 18 games, elevating guys a bit higher than they should, not being able to use Rantanen there, etc all didn't help. This is a team that shouldn't be bottom third in scoring. Last year the abysmal PP hurt them and this year they scored only 3 more goals total? Not going to disagree that getting proper puck movement would help but I've maintained all year this team does have a talent problem.

 

[Freudian]

What I worry about with the goalies is that they will hang on to both of them just to maximize the chance of making the playoffs next year instead of thinking long term.

I think this is the summer to get value if you trade a Varlamov and if you think Pickard can be a starter, you have to trade him. The summer of an expansion draft, it throws everything up in the air and the market will look much different.

 

[McMetal]

I think having six real top six forwards in the salary cap era is going to be an impossibility without seriously neglecting defense. It's just not affordable. You'll always need a complementary piece or two in there go make things work, hopefully Grigorenko can become that guy who you can pay less money and be a good midrange type who can defer to the stars and keep up at the same time.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I'll say this, one of the things about this podcast that's so great is the attention to detail, and just the hockey knowledge in general.

So often when I listen to even some of the big media pod casts, they sound like a bunch of 12 year olds evaluating NHL hockey. Especially when they talk about the Avs and a bunch of different teams.

I don't think I could handle listening to a lot of people for 90 minutes, but you guys/girls pull it off well.


I like what TV said about Bigras, as I think he had some shifts with EJ prior to being put there full time that were great. He did struggle a little bit down the stretch there with consistency and injuries, but it was worth it to be able to play Zadorov with FB. It also wasn't all bad, and it gave both EJ and FB partners who could skate really well, which they needed IMO.

It would be nice if they can pull off getting Hamonic without losing Barrie, as I think he'd round out our defense into a very respectable group. However I'll take just about anything that is an upgrade on Holden and can play respectable minutes next to Barrie or one of the kids.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think having six real top six forwards in the salary cap era is going to be an impossibility without seriously neglecting defense. It's just not affordable. You'll always need a complementary piece or two in there go make things work, hopefully Grigorenko can become that guy who you can pay less money and be a good midrange type who can defer to the stars and keep up at the same time.

I agree, I said having 6 is wishful thinking. But when ours aren't elite (which I'm ok with, I'm not one of those pounding the table saying they have to be 80 point forwards) the supporting cast has to be on the better end. We have some options but we aren't there yet.

I'll say this, one of the things about this podcast that's so great is the attention to detail, and just the hockey knowledge in general.

So often when I listen to even some of the big media pod casts, they sound like a bunch of 12 year olds evaluating NHL hockey. Especially when they talk about the Avs and a bunch of different teams.

I don't think I could handle listening to a lot of people for 90 minutes, but you guys/girls pull it off well.

Thank you, that's a big compliment! We'll try to keep that up and even improve. I'm looking forward to the draft stuff a lot

 

[CobraAcesS]

I do think Mikko is at center like it or not unless he fails early, or they end up with someone better than Soderberg. Which means either something else likely happened I'm not on board with, or we got really damn lucky. Like 3% lucky...

 

[Gabe the Babe]

I assume that trading Varly would give them the space to keep Boedker AND bring in Radulov AND get whatever we get in return in the trade (which better be substantial).

But you'd have to sell me on moving one of the most dynamic goalies in the NHL. Those dudes don't grow on trees. I think Picks is more consistent. I like his game. Think he'll be a great goalie. But idk if he has that ELITE ability. Can he steal 10+ games a season for us? Varly has. Idk I understand why but I'm scared.

 

[flyfysher]

I do think Mikko is at center like it or not unless he fails early, or they end up with someone better than Soderberg. Which means either something else likely happened I'm not on board with, or we got really damn lucky. Like 3% lucky...

Does anyone know how Soderberg's stats (goals/assists/points) compared to ROR's this season? Also on takeaways, if available.

 

[flyfysher]

I assume that trading Varly would give them the space to keep Boedker AND bring in Radulov AND get whatever we get in return in the trade (which better be substantial).

But you'd have to sell me on moving one of the most dynamic goalies in the NHL. Those dudes don't grow on trees. I think Picks is more consistent. I like his game. Think he'll be a great goalie. But idk if he has that ELITE ability. Can he steal 10+ games a season for us? Varly has. Idk I understand why but I'm scared.

x2 although I'm not convinced Picks is more consistent. I'd like to see Picks have a larger sample size of his goaltending as a backup over the course of a season before naming him as the starter.

 

[Freudian]

I assume that trading Varly would give them the space to keep Boedker AND bring in Radulov AND get whatever we get in return in the trade (which better be substantial).

But you'd have to sell me on moving one of the most dynamic goalies in the NHL. Those dudes don't grow on trees. I think Picks is more consistent. I like his game. Think he'll be a great goalie. But idk if he has that ELITE ability. Can he steal 10+ games a season for us? Varly has. Idk I understand why but I'm scared.

Avs would no doubt take a hit next year if they trade Varlamov but you have to weigh it against having a larger chance to win in 2018 and 2019 (more cap space, the assets Avs get in the trade would be ready to make an impact).

We don't really know how they view Pickard's starter potential so it's possible it's not even on their radar.

 

[Ivan13]

If they want to trade someone this offseason is the time to do it, I've said it in the past, but I'll say it again, I believe that the goalie market will be non-existent in 2017.

 

[AvsRobin]

Does anyone know how Soderberg's stats (goals/assists/points) compared to ROR's this season? Also on takeaways, if available.

ROR
5v5 Pts/60: 1.35
5v5 Shots/60: 5.28
PP Pts/60: 5.77
CF% Rel TM: 0.9%
5v5 IPP: 68.6%

SODA
5v5 Pts/60: 1.52
5v5 Shots/60: 6.21
PP Pts/60: 4.55
CF% Rel TM: 0.8%
5v5 IPP: 71.1%

 

[CobraAcesS]

ROR
5v5 Pts/60: 1.35
5v5 Shots/60: 5.28
PP Pts/60: 5.77
CF% Rel TM: 0.9%
5v5 IPP: 68.6%

SODA
5v5 Pts/60: 1.52
5v5 Shots/60: 6.21
PP Pts/60: 4.55
CF% Rel TM: 0.8%
5v5 IPP: 71.1%

What is the 'IPP' stat?

Edit : Oh and does this mean O'Reilly is an over paid third line center, or does it mean Soderberg is an underrated #1 center?

On a serious note, I was really pissed that when we brought in Boedker, Soda was the one that lost his spot on the power play. He was really good there, and some how despite all that Roy still felt like it was justified to keep Comeau there. As well as continue to give Holden shifts on the power play.

We had Duchene, MacKinnon, Iginla, and Grigorenko that could all help on face-offs. So I don't think Comeau's face-off ability was enough of an excuse IMO.

That was one of the dumbest things Roy did all year.

MacKinnon, Duchene, Grigorenko, Boedker, Landeskog, Iginla, Soderberg, Barrie, EJ, FB, Zadorov and Bigras all should have been on the power play before Holden, Comeau, or Mitchell.

 

[Stories]

I think having six real top six forwards in the salary cap era is going to be an impossibility without seriously neglecting defense. It's just not affordable. You'll always need a complementary piece or two in there go make things work, hopefully Grigorenko can become that guy who you can pay less money and be a good midrange type who can defer to the stars and keep up at the same time.

Unless you have guys who are contributing significantly on their 1st or 2nd deals which teams with great depth have going for them. This is a sign of poor drafting on the part of the Avs that few of their depth players are on very cheap contracts that are worth more than their paid. Almost all players on the Avs only contribute up to what their contracts say they should produce.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Unless you have guys who are contributing significantly on their 1st or 2nd deals which teams with great depth have going for them. This is a sign of poor drafting on the part of the Avs that few of their depth players are on very cheap contracts that are worth more than their paid. Almost all players on the Avs only contribute up to what their contracts say they should produce.

Duchene's contract is a steal, and MacK was still on his ELC. So...?

Oh and Barrie is still on a 2.6M contract as well.

 

[Stories]

Duchene's contract is a steal, and MacK was still on his ELC. So...?

Oh and Barrie is still on a 2.6M contract as well.

Every team has productive players who make Duchene money and one or two hotshot entry-level guys. I'm talking about the depth guys. We need roster spots not taken up by guys like Mitchell, Martinsen, McLeod who provide very limited upside.

Rantanen could very well be one of those players next year. So could Bigras and Zadorov. With guys getting huge raises next year, it becomes even more critical that we get production out of the entry-level guys.

This will likely become a huge problem for teams like Chicago next year once Kane and Toews new contracts kick in.

 

[InjuredChoker]

What is the 'IPP' stat?

IPP means % of goals the team scored while the player was on the ice and he got a point. so soda got a point on 71.1% of the goals avs scored when he was on the ice.

ROR's points/60 is low, very low for a 1st liner but it was actually 4th best on the team. sabres didn't score a lot 5on5. only devils were worse.

1.5 p/60 is average/median for 3rd liners iirc and sabres had only one skater above that mark (reinhart). that's just sad.

 

[CobraAcesS]

IPP means % of goals the team scored while the player was on the ice and he got a point. so soda got a point on 71.1% of the goals avs scored when he was on the ice.

ROR's points/60 is low, very low for a 1st liner but it was actually 4th best on the team. sabres didn't score a lot 5on5. only devils were worse.

1.5 p/60 is average/median for 3rd liners iirc and sabres had only one skater above that mark (reinhart). that's just sad.

Ahh ok, thanks

That's still pretty good for Soderberg, besides for his first five games or so he was great this year. And like I said, I think his production fell off a little bit when we made the deadline deals and he was removed from the power play. He seemed to be producing really well there before that IMO. I think he was a big reason our power play was ranked higher than it should have been for a while.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Ahh ok, thanks

That's still pretty good for Soderberg, besides for his first five games or so he was great this year. And like I said, I think his production fell off a little bit when we made the deadline deals and he was removed from the power play. He seemed to be producing really well there before that IMO. I think he was a big reason our power play was ranked higher than it should have been for a while.

soderberg had the second best pp production (in points/60) among avs forwards this season (iggy had better).

 

[cgf]

I assume that trading Varly would give them the space to keep Boedker AND bring in Radulov AND get whatever we get in return in the trade (which better be substantial).

But you'd have to sell me on moving one of the most dynamic goalies in the NHL. Those dudes don't grow on trees. I think Picks is more consistent. I like his game. Think he'll be a great goalie. But idk if he has that ELITE ability. Can he steal 10+ games a season for us? Varly has. Idk I understand why but I'm scared.

Picks wasn't even consistent in the AHL until this year. Being a consistent starter is a different challenge than being consistent as a back up.

 

[CobraAcesS]

soderberg had the second best pp production (in points/60) among avs forwards this season (iggy had better).

Roy

 

[CobraAcesS]

Picks wasn't even consistent in the AHL until this year. Being a consistent starter is a different challenge than being consistent as a back up.

Yeah but he also had to get used to not playing regularly and still playing at a high level. Isn't that also supposed to be a difficult aspect of being a back-up?

 

[tigervixxxen]

Yeah but he also had to get used to not playing regularly and still playing at a high level. Isn't that also supposed to be a difficult aspect of being a back-up?

It was good to see him figuring out how to keep his game up with backups work. Varly is more talented but I'd say his highs are higher and his lows are lower. IF the move is made they can't just roll out picks as the starter and call it good. They'll need to get a good vet backup like a Jiggy and split the starts 50-30.

Comeau on the PP was about him being a right shot I think. I agree they needed Soda's passing.