Svechnikov or Tkachuk

[Walter Sobchak]

Brady or Andrei?

Which player would you rather have going forward?

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[CheckingLineCenter]

Tkachuk, but barely. Both are awesome players.

 

[tony d]

I went with Andrei.

 

[LuckyBoeser]

My boy Svech

 

[Laminator]

Ottawa fan here. I was really hoping Ottawa would get the #1 pick for Dahlen but would be just as happy if we fell to #2 to draft Svech. I was extremely disappointed that we fell to #4 knowing that we didn't have a chance to draft him. However with the way Brady played this year especially at the end, I am satisfied with the pick. Both of them will have great careers however I see Svech being better offensively. I voted Brady for the homer vote !

 

[BondraTime]

Svechnikov

 

[Randy Randerson]

Svechnikov for me but I'd be gambling, Tkachuk is probably the smart move - a bird in the hand

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Tkachuk for the leafs. he would add elements that we lack in.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

Kotkaniemi

 

[mattydamon]

Andrei, but I would prefer Matthew. (WHY JIM)

 

[Connor McConnor]

Svech is the real deal and has much higher upside. I like him here.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Brady. The Tkachuks are very safe bets.

 

[Morgs]

Svech is a lot better now and will continue getting better.

No slight on Brady too, he's a lot better than I thought he was going to end up.

 

[Boud]

Kotkaniemi

Galchenyuk

 

[Boud]

s

Svech is a lot better now and will continue getting better.

No slight on Brady too, he's a lot better than I thought he was going to end up.

Svech is a lot better than Brady right now?

I mean he has a better shot I'll give you that but... nothing points to him being a better player NOW as you mentionned, nevermind ''much better''. I think Svech is going to be a better scorer long term, but as of now Brady is the better player. I find it hard to argue, he's just been better all around and scores just a much (actually more in less games). He's bringing a totally different aspect to the game as well that Svech doesn't and that's very hard to quantify. His production increased as well when Stone got traded and he was honestly better after the trade. You'd think the contrary but he took the team on his shoulders and the team basically played .500 hockey after the deadline.

You're a Leafs fan though so I'm not surprised you'd think Svech is a lot better now even though it makes no sense. I think it's totally fine to say Svech will be a better player, but as of now at very best they are equal, nowhere close to ''much better'' that's for sure.

 

[Morgs]

Svech is a lot better than Brady?

I mean he has a better shot I'll give you that but... nothing point to him being a better player now, nevermind ''much better''. I think Svech is going to be a better scorer long term, but as of now Brady is the better player I find it hard to argue he's just been better all around and scores just a much (actually more). He's bringin a totally different aspect to the game as well that Svech doesn't and that's very hard to quantify.

You're a Leafs fan though so I'm not surprised you'd think Svech is a lot better now even though it makes no sense.

Lol so essentially you're using eye test, points, and blaming my ignorance on being a Leafs fan. Uh huh.

When in reality I'm saying it because Svechnikov's isolated xG impact is better than any player in the league (literally 1st) .... at the age of 18. Like I said, I think Brady is much better than I thought he was going to end up as, but Svechnikov is just a monster and will only get better as he gets more acclimated - which is a scary thought.

EDIT: Btw, only 6 guys xG impact are too big for this chart. Svech is actually above 4 (only he and Mark Stone are).

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

Galchenyuk

?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Pick your poison, Svech will score more points but Tkachuk will be harder to play against. I need to see another season before making a choice. Svech definitely for ceiling, Tkachuk for guaranteed performance.

 

[Mike8]

Lol so essentially you're using eye test, points, and blaming my ignorance on being a Leafs fan. Uh huh.

When in reality I'm saying it because Svechnikov's isolated xG impact is better than any player in the league (literally 1st) .... at the age of 18. Like I said, I think Brady is much better than I thought he was going to end up as, but Svechnikov is just a monster and will only get better as he gets more acclimated - which is a scary thought.

View attachment 213233

What am I looking at here? (if you don't mind explaining)

 

[LGB]

Lol so essentially you're using eye test, points, and blaming my ignorance on being a Leafs fan. Uh huh.

When in reality I'm saying it because Svechnikov's isolated xG impact is better than any player in the league (literally 1st) .... at the age of 18. Like I said, I think Brady is much better than I thought he was going to end up as, but Svechnikov is just a monster and will only get better as he gets more acclimated - which is a scary thought.

View attachment 213233

He is behind two players from his own team (data from the same website btw, not including Fleury due to TOI). No doubt he generates xG very well, but his numbers are also boosted because of the fact Carolina is the best team in the league in terms of xG differential by far. Brady's corsi and xG numbers relative to his team are very high.

Edit: Actually you are correct about having the highest xG numbers. I misread and thought you were talking about differential. All points still apply though.

 

[Morgs]

What am I looking at here? (if you don't mind explaining)

Quick explanation is RAPM is Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus. Essentially it's isolating a player's impact. Below is what the people who brought it into hockey describe it as.

The goal of this type of analysis (APM/RAPM) is to isolate a given player’s contribution while on the ice independent of all factors that we can account for. Put simply, this allows us to better measure the individual performance of a given player in an environment where many factors can impact their raw results.

Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

 

[Boud]

Lol so essentially you're using eye test, points, and blaming my ignorance on being a Leafs fan. Uh huh.

When in reality I'm saying it because Svechnikov's isolated xG impact is better than any player in the league (literally 1st) .... at the age of 18. Like I said, I think Brady is much better than I thought he was going to end up as, but Svechnikov is just a monster and will only get better as he gets more acclimated - which is a scary thought.

View attachment 213233

I mean sorry for the Leafs fan thing, I think your reasonning is fine even though I totally disagree with it.

Isolated xG impact is amazing, but it doesn't always translate in long term success. Is the player sheltered, or is he now playing against top competition? Look at Laine last year and this year, his xG impact was amazing last year, this season not so much. That's why I take these stats with a grain of salt.

Primarily though the metric you used to compare both players is flawed, especially when comparing to a player like Tkachuk. It's not fair at all to look at xG impact and compare Tkachuk and Svechnikov, I hope you realize that since they are completely different players and play the game completely differently. It's easy to say all you do is look at stats and eye test, but ultimately scouts exist for a reason, otherwise each team would grab a chart and go call a name on the draft floor. This is primarily the reason why 90% of people thought it was crazy to draft Brady in the top 5 after a 10g season. People who watched him play, and pretty much all scouts, had him in the top 5 yet most people who never watched him are now very surprised of the season he had. Eye test does tell you a lot, it's nothing to brush aside and it's extremely important. Those two players cannot be compared using advanced stats, brady plays around the net, is a pest and is a great playmaker on the top line of the worst team in the league.

Nevermind the fact that Tkachuk played against top lines and top D pairings all year... At 19YO on the worst team in the NHL it's pretty hard to take the xG seriously. This is the reason why you'll never find Tkachuk on top of that list. You also cant compare xG from team to team, it has to be done on the same team, even then it has to be QOC adjusted.

 

[Boud]

?

I thought the same thing when I noticed your initial post. Glad I made you feel the same way.

 

[Morgs]

View attachment 213235
He is behind two players from his own team (data from the same website btw, not including Fleury due to TOI). No doubt he generates xG very well, but his numbers are also boosted because of the fact Carolina is the best team in the league in terms of xG differential by far. Brady's corsi and xG numbers relative to his team are very high.

Yes, but RAPM is isolated impact which gives credit to the one that is driving play. Carolina's leaders at RAPM_xGF/60:

1. Svechnikov (0.414)
2. Aho (0.351)
3. Hamilton (0.326)

 

[LGB]

Yes, but RAPM is isolated impact which gives credit to the one that is driving play. Carolina's leaders at RAPM_xGF/60:

1. Svechnikov (0.414)
2. Aho (0.351)
3. Hamilton (0.326)

I'm skeptical of that statistic. Just using my own team as an example, Brayden Schenn is the 3rd best driver of play in the league according to RAPM_xGF/60. Any Blues fan will tell you that while Schenn is a very good player, the obvious driver of play on the Blues is Tarasenko and most would probably put him behind O'Reilly as well.