Svechnikov or Tkachuk

[Morgs]

I mean sorry for the Leafs fan thing, I think your reasonning is fine even though I totally disagree with it.

Isolated xG impact is amazing, but it doesn't always translate. Look at Laine last year and this year, his xG impact was amazing last year, this season not so much. That's why I take these stats with a grain of salt.

Primarily though the metric you used to compare both players is flawed, especially when comparing to a player like Tkachuk. It's not fair at all to look at xG impact and compare Tkachuk and Svechnikov, I hope you realize that since they are completely different players and play the game completely differently. It's easy to say all you do is look at stats and eye test, but ultimately scouts exist for a reason, otherwise each team would grab a chart and go call a name on the draft floor. This is primarily the reason why 90% of people thought it was crazy to draft Brady in the top 5 after a 10g season. People who watched him play, and pretty much all scouts, had him in the top 5 yet most people who never watched him are now very surprised of the season he had. Eye test does tell you a lot, it's nothing to brush aside and it's extremely important. Those two players cannot be compared using advanced stats, brady plays around the net, is a pest and is a great playmaker. On the other hand Svechnikov is completely different.

Nevermind the fact that Tkachuk played against top lines and top D pairings all year... At 19YO on the worst team in the NHL it's pretty hard to take the xG seriously. This is the reason why you'll never find Tkachuk on top of that list.

Nah, Laine has never been good at driving a line. It's a reason why I said "he's the most overrated star in the league" and people laughed.

I mean the fact is that the game of hockey comes down to scoring more goals than the other team. Sure intangibles are nice to have, but they need to be paired with both offense and defense for them to matter. When it comes to Brady, he's actually 52nd in the entire league at driving xG; which is boderline elite. So as I mentioned twice now, he's a lot better than I thought he was going to end up as I didn't believe he had the skill to play a game where that side of his game would translate, especially this early in his career. It's funny because I thought it could with Matthew, and Brady is arguably better at driving play. So again, I'm not chirping Brady, I just think Svech is a monster.

Competition and teammates are actually taken into account with RAPM.

 

[Boud]

Nah, Laine has never been good at driving a line. It's a reason why I said "he's the most overrated star in the league" and people laughed.
View attachment 213245

I mean the fact is that the game of hockey comes down to scoring more goals than the other team. Sure intangibles are nice to have, but they need to be paired with both offense and defense for them to matter. When it comes to Brady, he's actually 52nd in the entire league at driving xG; which is boderline elite. So as I mentioned twice now, he's a lot better than I thought he was going to end up as I didn't believe he had the skill to play a game where that side of his game would translate, especially this early in his career. It's funny because I thought it could with Matthew, and Brady is arguably better at driving play. So again, I'm not chirping Brady, I just think Svech is a monster.

Competition and teammates are actually taken into account with RAPM.

Thanks for articulating your point.

 

[Morgs]

I'm skeptical of that statistic. Just using my own team as an example, Brayden Schenn is the 3rd best driver of play in the league according to RAPM_xGF/60. Any Blues fan will tell you that while Schenn is a very good player, the obvious driver of play on the Blues is Tarasenko and most would probably put him behind O'Reilly as well.

Honestly, it just boils down to the fact that Schenn had an elite year when it comes to creating chances. Tarasenko was better rated every year they were both in the league minus this year.

O'Reilly on the other hand has never been good at driving xG, but like Marner people speculate (I'm not sure how much I agree with it) that playmakers are penalized when talking isolated impact.

 

[LGB]

Honestly, it just boils down to the fact that Schenn had an elite year when it comes to creating chances. Tarasenko was better rated every year they were both in the league minus this year.

O'Reilly on the other hand has never been good at driving xG, but like Marner people speculate (I'm not sure how much I agree with it) that playmakers are penalized when talking isolated impact.

Interesting. Maybe I'll get into RAPM in the future, but for now I'm just going to stay away from it because I do not understand it.

 

[Morgs]

Interesting. Maybe I'll get into RAPM in the future, but for now I'm just going to stay away from it because I do not understand it.

Long, but it's worth the read if you have interest.
Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

 

[LGB]

Long, but it's worth the read if you have interest.
Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

Yeah I saw it on the first page, looks pretty complicated lol.

 

[NyQuil]

I wanted Svechnikov at the time and I still do.

 

[pown]

Brady had the better season and will most likely be the captain and have a long consistent career but Andrei will most likely outscore him almost every season, different type of players that every team needs, hard to compare. I see Andrei hitting 40 goals, not Tkachuk. I think Brady can be a consistent 30 goal 30 assist guy.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Kotkaniemi

Wait, you mean to tell me that a poster with the username "Kotkaniemi15" would take Kotkaniemi? Shocked I tell you, shocked.

 

[Fantomas]

Lol so essentially you're using eye test, points, and blaming my ignorance on being a Leafs fan. Uh huh.

When in reality I'm saying it because Svechnikov's isolated xG impact is better than any player in the league (literally 1st) .... at the age of 18. Like I said, I think Brady is much better than I thought he was going to end up as, but Svechnikov is just a monster and will only get better as he gets more acclimated - which is a scary thought.

View attachment 213233

EDIT: Btw, only 6 guys xG impact are too big for this chart. Svech is actually above 4 (only he and Mark Stone are).

Whatever the hell this means, I endorse it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Comparing their rookie seasons is fun and all, but their usage (mainly because of team situation) was totally different.

Tkachuk played with Stone, White and Chabot for the majority of his 5v5 play (top 3 TOI with) and got 13:43 ES TOI/GP. Based on his line-mates, it appears he played on the top PP unit? (maybe not) and got 2:14 TOI/GP. Svechnikov played with Martinook, Wallmark and Hamiilton/Slavin for the majority of his 5v5 play (top 3 TOI with) and got 12:43 ES TOI/GP. He also was on the 2nd PP unit (which was bad) with 1:55 PP TOI/GP.

I definitely think Tkachuk was more NHL ready than Svechnikov at this age which is part of the reason why, but the Canes being in the playoff hunt meant Brindy was going to be more stringent with trusting rookies down the stretch (which is natural).

I think those that have stated Tkachuk is more of a playmaker and plays around the net, thus totally different than Svech haven't really watched Svech this year. I like what I saw from Tkachuk though. More skilled than I expected him to be right out of the gate and he was very impressive.

Won't vote because I didn't see enough of Tkachuk and thus it would be a homer vote.

 

[Brucelenok]

Svechnikov has a potential to be 100 point player at his peak with a great defensive game on his side. Brady? Not a chance. I see him to be a gritty player and great leader with 70-80 points potential

 

[John Johnson]

Lol so essentially you're using eye test, points, and blaming my ignorance on being a Leafs fan. Uh huh.

When in reality I'm saying it because Svechnikov's isolated xG impact is better than any player in the league (literally 1st) .... at the age of 18. Like I said, I think Brady is much better than I thought he was going to end up as, but Svechnikov is just a monster and will only get better as he gets more acclimated - which is a scary thought.

View attachment 213233

EDIT: Btw, only 6 guys xG impact are too big for this chart. Svech is actually above 4 (only he and Mark Stone are).

I'm not saying one is way better than the other, but one of these players plays on a playoff team and the other plays on the worst team in the league this year. Also advanced stats don't always paint the whole picture and some can even be cherry picked.