SV% in wins vs SV% in losses

[TheOrangeDesk]

I was bored this morning so decided to play around on excel with something I've been curious about for a while. I looked at all situation save% in team wins vs all situation save% in team losses. I looked at Oilers (oiler fan), Leafs (oilers getting their goalie) and league average. I posted this to oil page but thought you guys might care too. Im not sure if there is actually valuable insight to be gained here, but at first glance it looks like when leafs win they are getting slightly worse than average goaltending and when they lose they are getting significantly worse than league average goaltending. enjoy the long weekend all!

league
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.862	0.934
oilers
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.854	0.932
leafs
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.846	0.925

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[BayStBullies]

I was bored this morning so decided to play around on excel with something I've been curious about for a while. I looked at all situation save% in team wins vs all situation save% in team losses. I looked at Oilers (oiler fan), Leafs (oilers getting their goalie) and league average. I posted this to oil page but thought you guys might care too. Im not sure if there is actually valuable insight to be gained here, but at first glance it looks like when leafs win they are getting slightly worse than average goaltending and when they lose they are getting significantly worse than league average goaltending. enjoy the long weekend all!

league
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.862	0.934
oilers
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.854	0.932
leafs
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.846	0.925

Without accounting for quality of opposition, I don't see how this is useful. The Pacific is a joke, it's like apples and oranges.

 

[zeke]

I was bored this morning so decided to play around on excel with something I've been curious about for a while. I looked at all situation save% in team wins vs all situation save% in team losses. I looked at Oilers (oiler fan), Leafs (oilers getting their goalie) and league average. I posted this to oil page but thought you guys might care too. Im not sure if there is actually valuable insight to be gained here, but at first glance it looks like when leafs win they are getting slightly worse than average goaltending and when they lose they are getting significantly worse than league average goaltending. enjoy the long weekend all!

league
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.862	0.934
oilers
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.854	0.932
leafs
sv% in loss	sv% in wins
0.846	0.925

Thanks for the numbers.

Lesfs certainly won at a high level despite overall poor goaltending last year.

 

[TGB]

Save percentages tend to be worse in losses, yes.

 

[ULF_55]

Been many years since Leafs started a game confident about goaltending.

 

[Havoc]

Without accounting for quality of opposition, I don't see how this is useful. The Pacific is a joke, it's like apples and oranges.

He gave the league average too, looks useful to me

 

[TheRumble]

Campbell is a good goalie when things are going right for him. If he let's in 2 quick goals and the team is down 2-0 in the first, the team is in for a 5-3, 5-4 type of game or its gonna be a blowout.

The Leafs were an extremely good defensive team last year but whenever they had to bail out and play from behind, the goalies would often not be able to hold the fort and give the team a winning chance.

When they were ahead or tied however the defense did a great job of limiting shots and keep shots easy when they did give up shots.

 

[Buds17]

The (number of) teams above and below the league average would serve as further context. For the most part, neither team is likely to win significantly on the backs of its goaltending. Leaf SV% numbers were impacted by the backup and #3 goalie both coming in below the .900 mark. Nevertheless, both franchises will appropriately use playoff performance as a measuring stick.

 

[zeke]

Another way to look at it:

With .940+: 24-0-0, 164pt pace
.900-.940: 14-3-3, 127pt pace
.860-.900: 11-4-2, 115pt pace
Sub-.860: 5-14-2, 47pt pace

So the Leafs were elite as long as they received .860+sv%. They needed the goaltending to be sub-.860 to be bad, and that happened in 26% of their games.

 

[Duffman955]

So you're telling me, we only need mediocre goaltending to be an elite team.

Eye test seems to agree

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

Reddit moment

 

[ThrowDemTongs]

Reddit moment

 

[Dayjobdave]

Another way to look at it:

With .940+: 24-0-0, 164pt pace
.900-.940: 14-3-3, 127pt pace
.860-.900: 11-4-2, 115pt pace
Sub-.860: 5-14-2, 47pt pace

So the Leafs were elite as long as they received .860+sv%. They needed the goaltending to be sub-.860 to be bad, and that happened in 26% of their games.

I think this raises the issue of the “quality start” which should be a goaltender stat. Any full game giving up 3 or less would qualify.

I suppose high quality would be 2 or less

 

[Madap]

Thanks for this. Pretty much aligns with what we were thinking.

Which is why I’m not worried about goaltending this year. One of our two goalies can just play ok and we’d still have a great season. Playoffs are a different story, but hopefully someone gets hot then. Happens all the time.