And basketball works the same way. This pandemic year really showed it off. NC State went 14-11, 9-9 vs ACC teams, 4-1 in non-conference.
The previous year, they were 20-12 overall, 11-10 vs ACC teams, 9-2 vs non-conference. They BOUGHT seven guarantee games and won all 7.
The difference between a mediocre NC State team that had no chance at the NCAA Tournament, and a 20-12 NC State team that was projected to make the tournament was nothing more than inviting poor teams to come lose.
"Well, if the non-BCS teams aren't really as bad as they appear, why don't they just win their non-conference road games at BCS schools?"
Because the BCS schools strategically pick only the teams they know they can beat. When you have a team with EVERYONE coming back and everyone knows you're going to be good... BCS teams run far far away.
"The BCS supports the non-BCS by buying guarantee games" is a crock. They get $50 million each and share $3 million in guarantee games, which is basically a bribe to keep the balance of power tilted in their direction.
And if anyone transcends their second-class status, what happens? They get invited into the cartel. Like Utah, Louisville, TCU, Butler, Creighton, Wichita State.
Look at the college basketball standings in the early 90s. The 60 best teams were spread out over TWENTY-ONE conferences. For example:
ACC - Duke/UNC
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big 8 - Oklahoma
Southwest - Arkansas, Texas, Houston
SEC - Kentucky
Big East - Syracuse, UConn
Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA
WAC - BYU, Utah
Big West - UNLV
Metro - Louisville
Midwest Collegiate - Xavier, Dayton
Missouri Valley - Wichita St, Creighton
Sun Belt - VCU, Western Kentucky, UAB
A-10 - Temple, UMass, West Virginia
Mid-Con - Northern Iowa
Colonial - Richmond
Big Sky - Nevada, Boise St
Mid-American - Marshall
So Con - Davidson
Independent - Miami, Notre Dame,
WCC - Gonzaga
Here's those exact same schools NOW, they're in 12 conferences:
ACC - Duke/UNC, Syracuse, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame
Big Ten - Michigan St
Big 12 - Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia
SEC - Kentucky, Arkansas
American - Wichita St, Houston, Temple,
Big East - UConn, Xavier, Creighton
Pac-12 - Arizona, UCLA, Utah
Mountain West - UNLV, Nevada, Boise St
WCC - Gonzaga, BYU
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
C-USA - Western Kentucky, UAB
A-10 - UMass, VCU, Richmond, Dayton, Davidson
The idea that BCS teams are "better" is circular logic. They got the TV money which made them better and allowed them to buy wins to look better, and all the recruits want to go places that spent money on facilities and play on TV
And basketball works the same way. This pandemic year really showed it off. NC State went 14-11, 9-9 vs ACC teams, 4-1 in non-conference.
The previous year, they were 20-12 overall, 11-10 vs ACC teams, 9-2 vs non-conference. They BOUGHT seven guarantee games and won all 7.
The difference between a mediocre NC State team that had no chance at the NCAA Tournament, and a 20-12 NC State team that was projected to make the tournament was nothing more than inviting poor teams to come lose.
"Well, if the non-BCS teams aren't really as bad as they appear, why don't they just win their non-conference road games at BCS schools?"
Because the BCS schools strategically pick only the teams they know they can beat. When you have a team with EVERYONE coming back and everyone knows you're going to be good... BCS teams run far far away.