Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

[GSJS2000]

Yeah, but Kane can’t be realistically expected to hit more than 5 goals per season at special teams. Here is his special teams goal scoring, per year:

1
4
6
2 (lockout)
3
5
3
3
7

He averages 3.7 special teams goals per year. Round up for the lockout year and say 4 just because. I don’t see him getting more than 5 this year.

This is why PF and I say it’s not realistic to expect more than 30 goals per season out of Kane, even with Thornton. He would need to hit at least 25 at even strength which would put him near the very best in the NHL. I’m not sure if he can do that.

While it is not likely he stays on the pace he was last year with the sharks(without Thornton), 8 EV-goals in 17 games, but to expect his production to drop in half while playing with Thornton is just as unlikely

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

While it is not likely he stays on the pace he was last year with the sharks(without Thornton), 8 EV-goals in 17 games, but to expect his production to drop in half while playing with Thornton is just as unlikely

That’s a real small sample size. Why not include the playoffs and make it 10 ESG in 26 games? That’s a pace of 32 even strength goals per 82 games. I’ll be ecstatic if Kane can do that. I think 25 is more realistic.

It really is astonishing how bad he is on the PP

He’s a mostly one-dimensional offensive forward and in 3 different seasons of his career, he has had more SHG than PPG. That really puts into perspective how bad he sucks on the PP and it is pretty funny.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yah exactly. While you can make an argument we didn't give him a chance, regardless he's had a chance since and done nothing to warrant his draft position. I really just don't see this trade a 'horrible'. At best it's 'bleh' in my book. We needed forward depth for a cup run, Hansen was available, a decent fit, and only cost a risky prospect who had not impressed thus far. The only reason we care is because Hansen sucked (and DeBoer hated him). Had he played like he did in Vancouver, we would have seen him as a good depth addition who can play on any line if needed, and he might have even re-signed here.

Done nothing to warrant his draft position? He went 27th overall. Just him getting a cup of coffee in the NHL warrants his draft position. He wasn't some top ten pick here. There is always significant bust potential when picking in the latter half of the first round. As for the trade, it was horrible then and it was horrible now. Not necessarily because they gave up on a promising prospect that didn't impress them but because they brought in a guy that they had no business bringing in if they were just keeping up with what their divisional opponents were doing. Hansen was awful coming back from injury and wasn't going to be a fit here. The reason I care is because what gets lost in this conversation is the reality that the Goldobin situation in San Jose speaks as much to the failings of the team to support Goldobin and flesh out his weaknesses as it does Goldobin for not being able to take advantage of limited opportunities at 20 and 21 years old. Goldobin was a known project at the time that was going to take a while to get the best out of him and the team gave up making no discernible progress.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

While it is not likely he stays on the pace he was last year with the sharks(without Thornton), 8 EV-goals in 17 games, but to expect his production to drop in half while playing with Thornton is just as unlikely

I disagree. Having his even strength goal pace drop in half is significantly more likely than him keeping pace with 8 even strength goals in 17 games against mostly crappy opponents. Kane played against 7 opponents during the regular season with the Sharks that made the playoffs. He scored one even strength goal and one even strength assist against Columbus and that was it. All of what he did from a production standpoint with the Sharks last year should just be scrapped. Just wait and see how he does with a full year here and go from there.

 

[Maladroit]

Yah exactly. While you can make an argument we didn't give him a chance, regardless he's had a chance since and done nothing to warrant his draft position. I really just don't see this trade a 'horrible'. At best it's 'bleh' in my book. We needed forward depth for a cup run, Hansen was available, a decent fit, and only cost a risky prospect who had not impressed thus far. The only reason we care is because Hansen sucked (and DeBoer hated him). Had he played like he did in Vancouver, we would have seen him as a good depth addition who can play on any line if needed, and he might have even re-signed here.

Hansen was never going to play like he did in 2015-16 in Vancouver because he shot nearly 20% that year. It's embarrassing that a GM as generally savvy as Doug Wilson fell for something like that in the year 2017. Hansen had been a career third liner prior to that season and that's basically what he was for us, DeBoer's inexplicable distaste for him aside. Also the 27th overall pick historically has a sub-15% chance of turning into a top six forward or equivalent player and only about a 60% chance of even playing 100 games. The mere fact that Goldobin is already halfway to 100 GP at 22 and produced like a third liner in extremely limited minutes means he's lived up to his draft position.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Oh man... so it's back to rehashing the Goldobin trade again? This summer sucks...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh man... so it's back to rehashing the Goldobin trade again? This summer sucks...

Don't worry. I have a schedule prepared to where we can rehash the Craig Janney/Jeff Norton trade in March of 1995.

 

[OffSydes]

LetsL discuss Michael Sgarbossa

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I still can’t tell if we lost the Dillon/Demers trade.

 

[Lebanezer]

We lost every trade that did not get us Thornton, Burns or Boyle. Every other trade was limitless potential wasted on known commodities that sucked.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We lost every trade that did not get us Thornton, Burns or Boyle. Every other trade was limitless potential wasted on known commodities that sucked.

Those 3 trades, along with drafting Joe Pavelski in 2003, have completely carried the rest of Doug Wilson’s mediocre GM’ing career.

 

[Lebanezer]

Those 3 trades, along with drafting Joe Pavelski in 2003, have completely carried the rest of Doug Wilson’s mediocre GM’ing career.

Those 3 trades alone make him an above average GM. Plus he’s had the incessant handicap of poor drafting by a poor scouting staff.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Those 3 trades alone make him an above average GM. Plus he’s had the incessant handicap of poor drafting by a poor scouting staff.

That’s on him for inheriting that staff and keeping them on for 15 years. I entirely agree he is an above average GM.

 

[DG93]

Those 3 trades, along with drafting Joe Pavelski in 2003, have completely carried the rest of Doug Wilson’s mediocre GM’ing career.

Counter-point: those 4 things alone make him better than Chia, Benning, Bergevin, Dorion, Tallon, Bob Murray, and Waddell. I'm on the fence about Lou and Holland because they were good back in the day. I'm also on the fence about McPhee because half the time he makes really good decisions and half the time he's McIdiot.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Counter-point: those 4 things alone make him better than Chia, Benning, Bergevin, Dorion, Tallon, Bob Murray, and Waddell. I'm on the fence about Lou and Holland because they were good back in the day. I'm also on the fence about McPhee because half the time he makes really good decisions and half the time he's McIdiot.

Lou and Holland are done. They built their successful teams a way that isn’t sustainable for success in 2018 and their moves in 2018 prove that they are completely done and have no idea how to build a winner in the modern NHL.

When it comes to McPhee, I really think the Golden Knights just screwed themselves over. That team was so set to tank for 2-3 years and come out of it with a monster roster, but now they will be forced to build a mediocre good team with no chance at a Stanley Cup for the coming years.

 

[DG93]

Lou and Holland are done. They built their successful teams a way that isn’t sustainable for success in 2018 and their moves in 2018 prove that they are completely done and have no idea how to build a winner in the modern NHL.

When it comes to McPhee, I really think the Golden Knights just screwed themselves over. That team was so set to tank for 2-3 years and come out of it with a monster roster, but now they will be forced to build a mediocre good team with no chance at a Stanley Cup for the coming years.

In that case, 4 moves alone have made DW better than 1/3 of the NHL's GMs. That's not too bad.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

In that case, 4 moves alone have made DW better than 1/3 of the NHL's GMs. That's not too bad.

Yeah, I would agree with that.

 

[STL Shark]

Lou and Holland are done. They built their successful teams a way that isn’t sustainable for success in 2018 and their moves in 2018 prove that they are completely done and have no idea how to build a winner in the modern NHL.

When it comes to McPhee, I really think the Golden Knights just screwed themselves over. That team was so set to tank for 2-3 years and come out of it with a monster roster, but now they will be forced to build a mediocre good team with no chance at a Stanley Cup for the coming years.

Yeah. Not being able to sell Neal, Perron, and their other expiring contracts for picks and prospects this TDL is going to set that franchise back 5 years. I mean when they were in 1st place they had no choice but to hold onto their guys, but they really needed to sell those guys as opposed to adding someone like Tatar and using assets.

 

[Maladroit]

DW has made plenty of mistakes but I struggle to think of more than a few active GMs I would rather have leading the Sharks. Probably Dubas although he's still unproven. Yzerman I guess but he's also signed some terrible contracts (Killorn, Callahan, Girardi, Coburn, etc.). I'd rather have Poile as our GM. But apart from those three the only others even in the conversation for me are Doug Armstrong and Kevin Cheveldayoff but neither really has a resume that screams clear upgrade over Wilson. The reality is that most GMs are pretty f***ing stupid and we're lucky to have one who isn't.

 

[Hinterland]

DW has made plenty of mistakes but I struggle to think of more than a few active GMs I would rather have leading the Sharks. Probably Dubas although he's still unproven. Yzerman I guess but he's also signed some terrible contracts (Killorn, Callahan, Girardi, Coburn, etc.). I'd rather have Poile as our GM. But apart from those three the only others even in the conversation for me are Doug Armstrong and Kevin Cheveldayoff but neither really has a resume that screams clear upgrade over Wilson. The reality is that most GMs are pretty ****ing stupid and we're lucky to have one who isn't.

The babyboy from Toronto proved nothing but that he's dumb enough to make decisions based on numbers alone. He clearly doesn't know hockey and it cost them aleady. Kessel was only one of many mistakes. The Pens wouldn't have won that Cup without the Maple Fails help. His drafts were also pretty stupid from what I can tell. Trading back can be effective but not the way he does it. Seems like you can offer him all bs you want...as long as he gets an additional pick he's always gonna accept because 2 is more than 1. Terrible is a gentle way to describe it. Only the other babyface from Arizona, Benning, Dorion and Chiarelli are worse. For some reasons those are all working for Canadian teams. Don't ask me why Canada's franchises all got tons of fans and money but (except Winnipeg) ridiculosly bad rosters and terrible prospect pools for their draft positions, too. Maybe add Holland to the list. No idea what went wrong there recently but within a few years he turned from one of the top GM's into a joke.

 

[Maladroit]

The babyboy from Toronto proved nothing but that he's dumb enough to make decisions based on numbers alone. He clearly doesn't know hockey and it cost them aleady. Kessel was only one of many mistakes. The Pens wouldn't have won that Cup without the Maple Fails help. His drafts were also pretty stupid from what I can tell. Trading back can be effective but not the way he does it. Seems like you can offer him all bs you want...as long as he gets an additional pick he's always gonna accept because 2 is more than 1. Terrible is a gentle way to describe it. Only the other babyface from Arizona, Benning, Dorion and Chiarelli are worse. For some reasons those are all working for Canadian teams. Don't ask me why Canada's franchises all got tons of fans and money but (except Winnipeg) ridiculosly bad rosters and terrible prospect pools for their draft positions, too.

He doesn't trade back because "two picks are more than one" he trades back because the combined probability of the picks he's acquiring turning into impact NHLers is greater than that of the pick he's giving up. Scouting staffs get hyperfocused on one player and throw away value just to "get their guy" and he's taking advantage of that. Which decisions do you think he's made based on numbers alone? They had to trade Kessel in order to go full tank to give themselves the best shot at Matthews/Laine that year and got good value for him considering the circumstances. Kapanen is a player.

 

[Hinterland]

He doesn't trade back because "two picks are more than one" he trades back because the combined probability of the picks he's acquiring turning into impact NHLers is greater than that of the pick he's giving up. Scouting staffs get hyperfocused on one player and throw away value just to "get their guy" and he's taking advantage of that. Which decisions do you think he's made based on numbers alone? They had to trade Kessel in order to go full tank to give themselves the best shot at Matthews/Laine that year and got good value for him considering the circumstances. Kapanen is a player.

Only looking at this draft (I'm too tired to look earlier ones up) they missed out on three clearly superior defenders just to get Nr.76. 3rd Rounders hardly ever work out and only 5 proper NHLers were ever drafted 76th. Their undersized Russian is never gonna make it. Not a compensation for having to take Sandin. This move makes zero sense and he's consistenly doing moves like that outta pure stupidity. They probably thought that somebody was gonna finally take Veleno but still. It was a dumb move.
If I'm an NHL GM I'm calling those kids with little hockey background all day and night. They don't have a clue. You saw the same thing in Florida when they "promoted" Tallon. Those math fools destroyed years of hard work. Must be very frustrating for Dale. He finally got his job back but the franchise isn't were it was before. He recovered it nicely but still. You gotta know hockey and the NHL in particular or you're gonna fail. 2 isn't always better than 1.

 

[Maladroit]

Only looking at this draft (I'm too tired to look earlier ones up) they missed out on three clearly superior defenders just to get Nr.76. 3rd Rounders hardly ever work out and only 5 proper NHLers were ever drafted 76th. Their undersized Russian is never gonna make it. Not a compensation for having to take Sandin. This move makes zero sense and he's consistenly doing moves like that outta pure stupidity. They probably thought that somebody was gonna finally take Veleno but still. It was a dumb move.
If I'm an NHL GM I'm calling those kids with little hockey background all day and night. They don't have a clue. You saw the same thing in Florida when they "promoted" Tallon. Those math fools destroyed years of hard work. Must be very frustrating for Dale. He finally got his job back but the franchise isn't were it was before. He recovered it nicely but still. You gotta know hockey and the NHL in particular or you're gonna fail. 2 isn't always better than 1.

Wait, you think the guys Ottawa, Chicago and the Rangers picked are superior prospects to Sandin? Based on what?

 

[WSS11]

We lost every trade that did not get us Thornton, Burns or Boyle. Every other trade was limitless potential wasted on known commodities that sucked.

I think the Martin Jones trade has worked out well so far and Even though his legs only lasted two years I felt we won the Heatley trade. DW unloaded a busted cheechoo michalek and a pick for a 1st liner. Who would have known heatleys knees would end up given out? I give DW credit for being aggressive when big names hit the market. I’m always excited as a shark fan when stars such as Erik Karlsson become available because I feel we are always in the hunt.

 

[Hinterland]

Wait, you think the guys Ottawa, Chicago and the Rangers picked are superior prospects to Sandin? Based on what?

A 1st rounder should be good enough to play SHL in the draft year. Sandin got perma scratched and only played five games. He had to play OHL to get some games in...something he didn't want to do initially...it was plan B after realizing that he's not good enough to play SHL. Rogle is also a terrible team and their best players are all forwards, not defenders. If you can't beat out anybody on one of the league's worst defense groups in your draft year then that's not a good sign. Just to compare. Tim Berni, taken 159th by Columbus won the title with the ZSC Lions in the NLA and he was a regular (including PK), also during the playoffs. ZSC has a very strong defense including Kevin Klein and several other vets. The guys Berni had beat out for his spot are all a lot better than the guys from Rogle. Lundqvist also struggled but he played 28 games on a much better team. While Rogle's defense is right up with the worst in the NHL, Lulea's defense is right at the top. Lots of seasoned vets on defense but not much upfront. Lundqvist also seems to have the better skillset. I'm not gonna go into details about the Canadian guys but Sandin seems like a long shot. Next season is gonna be big for him. Can he crack a weak defense? He's gonna have to or the NHL will be far far away.