Success rate of pulling the goalie

[Megahab]

Does anyone have any stats on how successful teams are when they pull the goalie in the last minute or two of a game when they are trying to tie it up?

I wanted to how often the team with the pulled goalie scores compared to getting an empty net goal scored on them.

I think I have seen the leading team get the empty net goal more often than the trailing team scoring. If this is the case, then is it really a good idea to pull the goalie at the end of the game?

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[Joey Mac]

for the flyers it's close to 0.0

 

[iamaranger]

why would it be a bad idea? they have nothing else to lose....

 

[lirit]

Agreed. If a team has nothing to lose.. why not pull the goalie and try?



This is a great example of where it worked. The Pens ended up winning that game.

 

[Hermit Wizard Eater]

Colorado hasn't pulled a goalie all season long. Even with Budaj in net.

EDIT, oh... You mean when down late in the 3rd to try to get back in to the game.

Thought you meant because the goalie let's in a bunch of goals on a few shots.

 

[Slurms McKenzie]

ask the flames

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5xyITGYdbA

 

[Buck Aki Berg]

I think I have seen the leading team get the empty net goal more often than the trailing team scoring. If this is the case, then is it really a good idea to pull the goalie at the end of the game?

It's easier to score an empty net goal than it is to score on a 6 on 5 advantage. You can shoot a weak floater from centre ice, and with no goalie to stop it, it just has to be on the mark. Good luck scoring with a weak floater from centre ice with a goalie in the net.

Thing is, you're making a flawed comparison. Instead of comparing 'scoring the tying goal vs. having an empty net goal scored on you', you should be comparing 'probability of tying the game with the goalie pulled (factoring in your defense's ability to protect the empty net) vs. probability of tying the game while playing at even strength with the goalie in'.

 

[Hurt]

0.0 for the Leafs.

 

[MemphisMTLfan]

It's easier to score an empty net goal than it is to score on a 6 on 5 advantage. You can shoot a weak floater from centre ice, and with no goalie to stop it, it just has to be on the mark. Good luck scoring with a weak floater from centre ice with a goalie in the net.

Thing is, you're making a flawed comparison. Instead of comparing 'scoring the tying goal vs. having an empty net goal scored on you', you should be comparing 'probability of tying the game with the goalie pulled (factoring in your defense's ability to protect the empty net) vs. probability of tying the game while playing at even strength with the goalie in'.

I think so, but that's because it's not a true man-advantage. There are 6 players on each side. One side has a goalie and 5 skaters while the other has 6 skaters and no goalie.

Sometimes I feel like the pulling of the goalie could be handled a little better. Some teams wait entirely too long to pull the goalie IMO.

 

[SomE*]

0.0 for the Leafs.

are they ever in a position where the game is close enough that's it's an option to pull the goalie?!

 

[Reign Nateo]

I've actually always wanted to see the numbers on this. It's still worth a shot and works out once in a while, but I would be curious to see some actual data.

 

[RebelMe]

A few months ago I read an article about people who wrote a study about this problem. Their recommendation was that coaches in the NHL should try to pull the goalie much earlier than they do now, because the odds of scoring with 6v5 advantage are actually quite good.

Unfortunately, I can't remember where I read it...maybe some last years The Hockey News.

 

[Badger36]

The odds arent very good. Thats why teams dont pull the goalie until the last minute of the game and have no other option.

 

[MasterofGrond]

A few months ago I read an article about people who wrote a study about this problem. Their recommendation was that coaches in the NHL should try to pull the goalie much earlier than they do now, because the odds of scoring with 6v5 advantage are actually quite good.

Unfortunately, I can't remember where I read it...maybe some last years The Hockey News.

Yes, I believe I've read something to the same effect.

 

[seventieslord]

There have been studies on this but I forget exactly what point they determined it would be the best to pull the goalie. But yes, it's common sense that it's worthwhile.

 

[Telos]

The Kings have converted quite a few over the past couple of seasons. I think it is a good tactic, but this thread does have me thinking of what the actual statistics and percentage is. Someone needs to figure it out now

 

[Inker]

I read an article a while back that broke all the stats down nicely. He came to the conclusion that it's better to pull the goalie with about 2:00 or 2:30 left in the game. There's a much bigger risk of getting scored on, obviously, but pulling the goalie with just 1 minute left makes the chances of scoring very, very low so you're probably going to lose anyways.

 

[D1az]

A few months ago I read an article about people who wrote a study about this problem. Their recommendation was that coaches in the NHL should try to pull the goalie much earlier than they do now, because the odds of scoring with 6v5 advantage are actually quite good.

Unfortunately, I can't remember where I read it...maybe some last years The Hockey News.

I think that the fans would hate the coaches if they pulled their goalies earlier, thinking of how often empty net goals occur as compared to 6v5 advantages with a pulled goalie leading to a game tying goal.

 

[CalderSchmalder]

How about the success rate of not pulling the goalie when there's about a minute left in the third and you're down by 1?

 

[Moobles]

There was a study done in 2005 that tried to be empirical, though it should be taken with a grain of salt, that found the highest success rate being at a pull of 2:40 before the game's over.

I'll dig it up later.

 

[fronkjonk*]

I saw a really long paper on this online. It did everything, like pulling the goalie on the PP and such. This was a couple years ago but I would bet it could still be found.

 

[RandallRitchey]

That is the reason why teams pull goalies.
The events that follow can turn a season around.

 

[Jimgrayson]

Effect on scoring rates

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2007/12/what-happens-when-you-pull-your-goalie.html

Effect on shooting percentage

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/10/6/1074042/what-if-playing-5-on-3-or-with-the

 

[VanFlamesFan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI0CFWPxdss

 

[The Lunatic Fridge]

PERFECT example

"Crosby, misses wide. 15 seconds to go , naslund...zherdev...to the net redden.......SCORE! Zherdev ties it with 8.1 to go!" Just listen to it with your sound up.The crowd literally goes NUTS when zherdev scores.The rangers also ended up winning in dramatic fashion.


I could probably resite that sentence in my sleep