Pre-Game Talk: Stars vs Jets Jan 31 6:00pm

[razorsedge]

If we lose this game in the same fashion as the last two, the ledge will look mighty enticing.

 

[AlphaLackey]

He does that about once a year. This year's is done.

Actually, he's had 8 games where he's put up .950 or better. The issue is, he's had 11 where he's been under .880 . He's certainly capable of having great starts. Which has been a big part of the difficulty that some have in evaluating him.

He's like the little girl with the little curl in the middle of her forehead: when he is good, he's very, very good; but when he is bad, he is horrid.

 

[Derfel*]

Actually, he's had 8 games where he's put up .950 or better. The issue is, he's had 11 where he's been under .880 . He's certainly capable of having great starts. Which has been a big part of the difficulty that some have in evaluating him.

He's like the little girl with the little curl in the middle of her forehead: when he is good, he's very, very good; but when he is bad, he is horrid.

Exactly why I think him starting this game is a good thing overall - I think he's ready to lead the Jets to a victory (again). We will get two clean points this weekend!

 

[AlphaLackey]

Exactly why I think him starting this game is a good thing overall - I think he's ready to lead the Jets to a victory (again). We will get two clean points this weekend!

Strictly speaking, you have it backwards: Because his average is low but his variance is high, we should play him in games we DON'T feel like we have a chance of winning, where a miracle is exactly what it would take to beat them. It's like, if you're playing no-limit hold'em heads up against the best player in the universe, simply betting everything pre flop every hand and hoping for a miracle is the demonstrably best strategy. But that's a mathematician talking, not a hockey coach. I'd keep Pavs to Eastern conference juggernauts. Anything close or where we're a favourite, we DON'T want variance, and want to play the higher average, lower variance choice.

Having said that, I won't NOT cheer for Winnipeg just to make my point. Name on the front >>> Name on the back.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Never confident when Pavelec starts. Hopeful though.

 

[Derfel*]

Strictly speaking, you have it backwards: Because his average is low but his variance is high, we should play him in games we DON'T feel like we have a chance of winning, where a miracle is exactly what it would take to beat them. It's like, if you're playing no-limit hold'em heads up against the best player in the universe, simply betting everything pre flop every hand and hoping for a miracle is the demonstrably best strategy. But that's a mathematician talking, not a hockey coach. I'd keep Pavs to Eastern conference juggernauts. Anything close or where we're a favourite, we DON'T want variance, and want to play the higher average, lower variance choice.

Having said that, I won't NOT cheer for Winnipeg just to make my point. Name on the front >>> Name on the back.

I'm just going with past/recent experience - Pavelec had "the game of the season" against Dallas last time out.

 

[razorsedge]

I'm just going with past/recent experience - Pavelec had "the game of the season" against Dallas last time out.

Well, if Hutch can beat Chicago 3 in a row, maybe Pavelic can do the same to Dallas. Either way, the rest of the team needs to show up to.

 

[Jet]

If we lose this game in the same fashion as the last two, the ledge will look mighty enticing.

I thought the 2 losses were very different, actually.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Name on the front >>> Name on the back.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I'm just going with past/recent experience - Pavelec had "the game of the season" against Dallas last time out.

But it's not about one game, it's about maximizing the theoretical average number of points we get, which means balancing both workloads and assignments. All other things being equal, Hutch vs Dallas + Pavelec vs East juggernaut we expect to lose to anyways = more average points than the other way around.

 

[Duke749]

Wheeler should be the best forward on the team. Right now he's the worst outside of the fourth line. I don't know how people are itching about Scheifele and barely mentioning Wheeler.

I'd swap Frolik and Wheeler for now. Anything more would be more desperate than the situation calls for. If Ladd continues to struggle for another week or two, bump him to the third, put Perreault on the first and Kane on the second.

I've noticed it recently too. I will never understand how he goes through these funks the way he does. I've been a little more patient this year but the Philly game was the last straw. He skates slow, doesn't move his feet, is weak on the puck, and can't make a decent pass to save his life. Im sure he'll get out of it soon enough and be an absolute force, but right now he's crap at almost everything.

 

[KingBogo]

I've noticed it recently too. I will never understand how he goes through these funks the way he does. I've been a little more patient this year but the Philly game was the last straw. He skates slow, doesn't move his feet, is weak on the puck, and can't make a decent pass to save his life. Im sure he'll get out of it soon enough and be an absolute force, but right now he's crap at almost everything.

Wheeler is an amazingly streaky player. I've been hoping/trusting he will breakout and go on a tear.

 

[tbcwpg]

I thought the 2 losses were very different, actually.

I think people are trying to colour the loss based on who was in net. The team made the same horrible mistakes in both games. Philly was better than Pittsburgh, so it didn't look as bad against the Pens as it did against the Flyers, but they've played the same way 2 games in a row. The Pens just let them hang around a bit more than the Flyers did.

They probably had a chance to steal two points out of Pittsburgh but they didn't, thanks to goaltending and some slack defending. The Flyers did a much better job against the Jets than the Pens did. The play was very similar.

Pavelec did not do his job in Pittsburgh, but let's not sit here and pretend the team was good in front of him. They weren't.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Working on a GDT, seeing as no one has claimed it yet.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Working on a GDT, seeing as no one has claimed it yet.

Excellent! Thanks TS!

Edit: most excellent MSPaint GDT is here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1824469