Stars’ Off-season Thread Part II

[LT]

Cross-posting this here...

After reading about how his shot totals are "falling off a cliff", I'd like someone to provide some more info on that.

He took 188 shots in 75 games last year, putting him at 2.5 shots per game. Had he played all 82 games, he'd have been at 205 shots, which is lower than his career numbers but not as much as some had made it seem.

His career SPG is just under 3, so 2.5 is a solid drop off there. But over the last 4 years, it's been much closer to 2.7 SPG, making that much more of a steady decline than a sharp drop off.

As for shooting percentage, his career average is 12.5, a lot lower than last season where he shot at 20.2. With a normal shooting percentage, he'd still be at 25 goals last season. Not too far off from his career average of 30 goals per season.

The only place where I see a cause for concern is his shot attempts per game. But his game is largely cerebral, so I'm not terribly worried about him getting his shots through. Through his career, more than half of his shot attempts have been on net. Additionally, I think this might've been confounded with having two stud defenders who probably had the puck a lot, and thus others, including Pavelski, had the puck less and therefore generated less shots.

At his age, sure, decline is always a worry, but I'm not seeing any "diving off a cliff" type decline in the stats. Not sure where that narrative came from, outside of fans simply trying to lessen the blow of a player like Pavelski leaving.

 

[Kipper 17]

That checks out

 

[Satan]

we got our guy

 

[mc3488]

Lets go big P

 

[MrHeiskanen]

What are we all thinking for cap hit? After Pavelski and Dickinson how much room we got potentially.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

What are we all thinking for cap hit? After Pavelski and Dickinson how much room we got potentially.

Around 3.7M is my guess, 8.4M once Hanzal goes on LTIR.

 

[MBTendy]

I'd love to add Donskoi

 

[MrHeiskanen]

So Perry at 1 x 2 million will fit in perfectly.

 

[Zapp]

you still haven't signed :] yet

 

[Zrhutch]

you still haven't signed :] yet

It’s friedman. That’s hockey Woj. He’s bringing 30 goals a year to Dallas.

 

[Zapp]

Remember though we still have Johns penciled in our top 4 which I think is one of the bigger gambles we're facing right now.

There's a real chance that one more hit could but Johns out of commission, and it could be a hit he throws himself. Idk that he'll throw hits like that anymore but that was one of the reasons i loved watching the dude play.

Oh and this was sick too

 

[Zrhutch]

Say it’s a 6.5 per year deal.. that still gives you 6 million to sign Dickinson and play with until Hanzal’s extra five million or whatever is added in. Could sign Hartman, maybe a Perry, maybe a Donskoi... maybe a Stralman... there’s possibilities here.

 

[Zapp]

Say it’s a 6.5 per year deal.. that still gives you 6 million to sign Dickinson and play with until Hanzal’s extra five million or whatever is added in. Could sign Hartman, maybe a Perry, maybe a Donskoi... maybe a Stralman... there’s possibilities here.

I don't think they're going to push right up against the cap this year honestly. Mentioned this before but Shapiro reported that Nill said he would have had Gurianov up at the end of last season but they couldn't because of cap reasons. I would expect them to pad a mill or 2 in cap space for that reason.

We'll see though. I would love Donskoi

 

[BigG44]

Just remember that with LTIR, you must have 20 players on the roster and be under $81.5 million on Day 1. We can't go below 18 skaters.

 

[BigG44]

I don't think they're going to push right up against the cap this year honestly. Mentioned this before but Shapiro reported that Nill said he would have had Gurianov up at the end of last season but they couldn't because of cap reasons. I would expect them to pad a mill or 2 in cap space for that reason.

We'll see though. I would love Donskoi

I could see a cushion, but $2 million is higher than I would expect.

 

[Zapp]

I could see a cushion, but $2 million is higher than I would expect.

Probably. I just based that off of Johns not being ready to go. They'd have space to spend on a top 4 D which depending on what else they do would probably put them close top the cap then they could just LTIR Johns which gives them $2.3m.

You're porably right that it's more around $1m in padding

 

[Zrhutch]

Just remember that with LTIR, you must have 20 players on the roster and be under $81.5 million on Day 1. We can't go below 18 skaters.

You’d be the guy to ask this- are there any rules about waiting to sign an RFA until LTIR money kicks in? Like if they waited till game one to sign Dickinson or something to give them more breathing room. I feel like it’s been done before, but I’m not sure.

 

[Zapp]

@Satan



GM Satan operating in the shadows

 

[BigG44]

No rules. He'd miss camp which is not ideal and likely not worth the gymnastics. I'm wither everyone here, and I want to see 2 Top 6 guys added, but my guess is Dallas trusts they have an in house option to fill out that last role. Dickinson probably heads that list since he played in that role during the playoffs.

I don't think anyone should be surprised if we end up seeing similar lines to start the year in the Top 6 as we did in the playoffs.

Dickinson-Seguin-Radulov
Benn-Hintz-Pavelski

That also gives young AHL scorers an opportunity to make the jump immediately or later in the season. In a perfect world, Faksa and Janmark would probably end up available maybe as an asset to improve the D by the trade deadline. The way it could work would be Dellandrea emerging beyond a 9 game tryout as an everyday NHLer and one of Gurianov, Robertson, Mascherin, Caamano, or Felhaber becoming the Top 6 option. Could look something like.

Robertson/Gurianov-Seguin-Radulov
Benn-Hintz-Pavelski
Cogliano-Dickinson-Comeau
Kiviranta-Dellandrea-Hartman

Spurgeon is a realistic TDL option next year. Barrie is unlikely given COL seems like a playoff team. Justin Faulk may be a possibility as well. Always liked him.

 

[BigG44]

I still have major doubts, but in a perfect world .... would be pretty sweet to get Puljujarvi. Start him out with Kiviranta and Dellandrea. Give him a chance to be the guy who might be able to transition up to the Top 6. I think he probably needs at least a year or so to adjust, but he still has Top 6 upside.

That would give you a potentially dangerous 4th line to play about 12 minutes a night.

 

[Satan]

Who the hell is Kiwirantta sounds fake

 

[BigG44]

He's the Finnish product they signed. Defensively sound and likely close to NHL ready. If they did move Janmark, there'd be a good chance that was the guy who would replace him saving about $1.3 million against the cap.

 

[Satan]

I refuse to believe he exists

 

[Satan]

Kiwi Antti Raanta

 

[Zapp]

Kiwi Antti Raanta

Kiwi Ranta and Emil juice