I have presented 20+ theories over the last 12 years on Alan Mitchell’s (TSN 1260 & Athletic) “Lowetide” blog site.
1. player situation use 3d matrix based on (team, Comp, ZS)
All 3 axis must be used. Volman,s copy of work is incorrect.
2. High danger shot theory ( what MSM calls home plate 12 years later.
3. HD shot density charting
4. Elite HD dmen
5. Dmen establish save% mean goalies perform around.
6. Goalie game performance curve HD shot density/Ga
7. Belichek and me: player shift repeatable base system performance.
8. False eye affect: single dramatic mistakes do not define player skill. But fans let it.
9. Table hockey goalie movement: pucks hit goalies moving in alignment with puck at higher rate than skater movement.
10. Open/ closed shots
Closed shot hits a goalie and has 0% chance of going in.
Open shot hits open space in net Elevation. Has greater than 0% chance of going in.
11. Closed corsi (0% corsi) = (blocks + misses + closed shots)
12. Elite closed Corsi Dmen create the highest % of closed corsi.
Closed corsi/COrsi against. Kris Russell #1. I have defined him for 10 1/2 years.
Thier are many more.
But my pride and joys are HD theory, Open/Closed theory, Off dmen Are Offensive, Cup Core Theory.
Many have used my theories to get work in hockey. I would not cause I make more in private industry.
But I did state they need to credit me for my work and not to profit off it.
Since I have been recently diagnosed with blood Plasma Cancer.
It is important to me to outline my theories that are present in hockey and Ask for the respect due that work.
Cup Core Hockey theory: How to build a cup Caliber team?
Talk to Rickithebear on “Lowetide” blog site months leading up to the expansion draft.
Ask him about his cup core roster theory he identified years ago, by looking at past 25yr Cup finals teams.
Ask him very draft specific questions, relative to his opinion on his High danger shot theory (home plate) he developed 12 years ago.
Discuss the reasoning behind each point of My cup core theory.
I ran into Dallas’s goalie coach Mike Valley who was on holiday’s with his family and Shawn Horcoff and Family, in animal kingdom Disney Orlando.
We discussed a couple of my 20+ theories,
-Table hockey goalies, ( observed this theory playing street hockey with a young Ron Gunnville (player personel directed PA Raiders)
-High danger shot theory ( had a good conversation with Braydon Mcnabbs mom at Hanna AB Burger Baron, when she asked about Brayden in the minors) I quickly explained his HD strength. When I contacted her to ask to reference her, she said, “it eased her mind.”
Only regret was, knowing CHI and LAK def teams That one of the 2 would trade for him. Should have told her that. LA did!
-Open/closed shot theory
Was going to lead into my cup core theory, but mike’s wife walked up and heard us discussing theory and said, “ you could find each other in a Snow storm.” He asked for my info and theories, gave me his email, but I did not receive a response back.
I am suppose to generate questions for Hanna home town boy Jim Nill for my wife’s award winning Newspaper sports page. I may have to ask him about My cup core theory. Weather he saw it.
When I think of the specific detail of players and aproach to the draft I discussed with new bloggers like King George, Georges, ....
And Know they Followed my Cup Core Theory 100%. I smile with pride. People I work with can tell you I said it was a cup contender less than a month after the exp draft.
Cup core theory:
1. High danger def sys coach
Gallant one of 2 best available.
2. Top 10 HD shot save% table hockey movement goalie.
I was asked about Fluery by a couple posters including King George. I said he was a top 20 HD goalie but an awful playoff goalie with mostly sub .900 play.
I had not studied his mechanics in video the last 2 years.
I was working on chasing modelling data for life expectancy analysis and possible coal plant conversion based on Alberta Carbon Tax the Last 8 years. Big push last 3 years. Being high functioning autistic I tend to gather picture memories of mechanics of actions, group the masses of data in my brain and generate 3-10 axis graphs or arrays to chart results and make sure they match to video.
What VGK had observed was with the arrival of Murray a top 3 HD goalie. Fluery had modified has skater movement to table hockey movement and had become a top 7 HD goalie
3. 3+ Top 60 HD Dman
CHI 3 cup winners had 3 HD dmen Hjarlmasson being the base anchor
LAK had 5 in thier 2 cup wins.
5 lets you get away with atop 20;HD goalie.
Off dmen are offensive: You want those HD dmen to have strong transition passing cause forwards generate even offence 4 times better than Off dmen. Off dmen abandon thier own HD area we’re shots go in 5 times more than perimeter.
VGK took the 9 top 60 HD dmen available
#3 Mcnabb
2 top 10 Schmidt, Stoner
2 top 25 TVR, Methot
2 top 45 Miller, Sbisa
2 top 60Garrison, Engelland
They retained the best passers.
And sought out potential HD Dmen like Theodore.
4. Top 6 team cumulative top 125 fwds (16g 39p)
Thier is 185 Top 125 Goals and points available from the top 125 forwards. Mcdavid was 2.65 Top 125 fwds this year.
Vegas took all the forwards with top 125 performance last 3 years
Neal,
Perron,
Marschesault,
Smith,
Eakins
As well as players who suggested top 125 with increased EV and PP TOI
5. Increase even goal rates from 1-2 bottom 6 forwards in playoffs.
Eakins
Tuch
6. +ve goal differential from special teams
I discussed the best goal dif affect was on PK from a cap point of view. Generating points was 2.75 times easier than at even. So advantage based points had a much lesser value cap wise.
So poor HD dmen with large PP points like letang, giordano, Hamilton were a complete cap waste.
VGK took the best historical pk fwds and dmen who were also
Really good HD d fits.
It has been a few years since both teams in the final have matched the cup core.
No clue who is going to win.
