Stamkos and a Finn or Matthews and 10 million in Cap Space

[X66]

I imagine a different scenario where Stamkos continues his decline in production and we're paying him 10 million per season for 60pts. near year five of his seven year deal. Gross.

That might be true, but Marner would never let that happen

 

[Mess]

If one was weighing the odds of Leafs winning the draft lottery (to get Matthews) and having Stamkos resign in TB or Stammer joining the Leafs and Leafs getting the 2nd or 3rd overall pick in the draft are both not all that high.

So we are actually picking among 2 hypothetical scenarios with neither having a very high % of happening IMO.

I think Stamkos resigning in TB is >>>> than Stamkos as a UFA so Leafs are likely to end up with that $10 mil cap regardless of what happens in the draft lottery.

 

[mashedpotato]

That might be true, but Marner would never let that happen

There's no might. He's going to decline in production further. There's no evidence to support any player can produce consistently throughout their career even former elite players like Stamkos.

I think this is an important point of discussion for another thread but proponents of signing Stamkos (should he hit UFA) seem to completely gloss over this fact considering he's likely going to get a max contract (both in term and value) ...

... The twilight years of the contract will not be pretty for anyone holding it considering it's guaranteed payout.

That said, I'm a Leaf fanboy and don't care. I want a player to be excited over but I can argue my case either way....

 

[mashedpotato]

I think Stamkos resigning in TB is >>>> than Stamkos as a UFA so Leafs are likely to end up with that $10 mil cap regardless of what happens in the draft lottery.

If there was a deal to be made it would have been done by now. Stamkos is going to free agency to get what he didn't get in the most recent offer made by Tampa.

 

[ACC1224]

There's no might. He's going to decline in production further. There's no evidence to support any player can produce consistently throughout their career even former elite players like Stamkos.

I think this is an important point of discussion for another thread but proponents of signing Stamkos (should he hit UFA) seem to completely gloss over this fact considering he's likely going to get a max contract (both in term and value) ...

... The twilight years of the contract will not be pretty for anyone holding it considering it's guaranteed payout.

That said, I'm a Leaf fanboy and don't care. I want a player to be excited over but I can argue my case either way....

For sure he'll get max term but doubtful he gets max dollars.

Most believe his inevitable decline will be minimal do to his age.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I'm not entirely sure why drafting 1st overall ends the (already very slim) possibility of signing Stamkos, or why signing Stamkos in the offseason would somehow affect our lottery placing a month earlier.


Given the options, though, I think I'd take Stamkos and one of the Finns.

 

[thewave]

I imagine a different scenario where Stamkos continues his decline in production and we're paying him 10 million per season for 60pts. near year five of his seven year deal. Gross.

What happens if a war breaks out in Mid East that disrupts oil movement and the prices rush back up to 130 a barrel? The Canadian dollar follows a steep bounce back and achieves parity again. The cap starts rising with our dollar. New Franchises are awarded and close to a billion dollars is injected into the league to start and by year 6 the cap is close to 90-95m

What if? Whatever. You do what you need to do and what makes sense and chasing rainbows and unicorns won't get you anywhere.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I don't think Stamkos is worth 10 million so Matthews.

Draft Matthews, realize that we'll still suck (just not as much) next year breaking in so much youth ala Sabres/Oilers this year or Chicago after getting Toews + Kane. Do move to build the team up for 2, 3, 4 years from now like signing some depth pieces to deal off during the season or taking on some short term cap dumps to build up even more assets.

 

[mashedpotato]

What happens if a war breaks out in Mid East that disrupts oil movement and the prices rush back up to 130 a barrel? The Canadian dollar follows a steep bounce back and achieves parity again. The cap starts rising with our dollar. New Franchises are awarded and close to a billion dollars is injected into the league to start and by year 6 the cap is close to 90-95m

What if? Whatever. You do what you need to do and what makes sense and chasing rainbows and unicorns won't get you anywhere.

There's nothing fantasy-based when talking about declining production and it's relationship with age.

It's a widely regarded fact.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

 

[Rude Dog]

I would take the sure thing in Stamkos. 10 million in cap space sounds great, until you see what the Leaf mgmt uses it on. Insert Jason Blake, Clarkson, Phaneuf, Finger etc etc. Don't even get me started on Bolland.

Quality over quantity all day long.

 

[thewave]

There's nothing fantasy-based when talking about declining production and it's relationship with age.

It's a widely regarded fact.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

He is young and by the end of that contract I believe his production statistically drops around 10% or something. Also, he very well could have a bounce back for 5 years putting him in the 80pt+ range the drop down to 72pts...

I am saying your projections are BS backed by nothing whatsoever. You're being completely short sighted and running with a borderline worse case scenario in mind.

Stop being a negative nancy, eat your lucky charms and accept its the closest you will get to the pot of gold. Welcome back to reality, you're welcome.

 

[Mess]

If there was a deal to be made it would have been done by now. Stamkos is going to free agency to get what he didn't get in the most recent offer made by Tampa.

Opening offer is usually never the best offer and negotiation always leave room for movement.

Odds are still pretty good this deal gets done and Stamkos remains in TB. I would realistically put the odds of Stamkos to TO at < 10%.

If the Leafs finished 30th overall their draft lottery odds would be 20% of getting the top pick.

Unfortunately, if Leaf fans are banking on either/or of these 2 options I think they will be disappointed as neither is the most likely outcome to me anyways.

So I really don't see either of these 2 scenarios being all that high of happening.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Stamkos and a top pick. The 10 mil in cap space/Matthews is a non starter did anybody see what Barkov just got? He just signed a long term extension for 6 mil a year after 165 total NHL games played. So with the following scenario Matthews if he's that good gets a new contract after a few years so that 10 mil in cap space disappears after a few years.

 

[highslot]

stamkos and a finn.

in 2 years it could be

jvr-stamkos-marner
kapanen-nylander-laine
johnson-komorov-brown/timashov/dzierkals
leivo-gauthier-leipsic/engvall/camenasari

that might be a cup contender.

 

[sxvnert]

If they draft Mathews, there is no point in signing Stamkos.

 

[mashedpotato]

He is young and by the end of that contract I believe his production statistically drops around 10% or something. Also, he very well could have a bounce back for 5 years putting him in the 80pt+ range the drop down to 72pts...

He's on pace for 64 points this year.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerfantas...e=2&team=TBL&position=S&viewName=skaterOnPace

If you plot his production on a graph from 2012 to present, you know what geometric figure you get? Try any player from optimal point production to present; I would guess the majority of the slopes are downward.

A downwards slope.

BTW, your 10% evaluation is pure ****.

 

[WTFMAN99]

How can you feel safe with two players who have never played in the NHL? That's a little too risky for my bones. I'll take the bonafide center, draft a top-3 player, and worry about paying our "young guys" later down the road when they've actually proven something in the NHL.

In fact I would bet everything that Nylander and Marner won't be going from entry level contracts to highly expensive contracts one-after-the-other. And if they do, i'm laughing all the way to the bank because it means they didn't bust. And with players like that, you have flexibility if money is an issue. Because there will always be a demand for elite talent. And that includes Stamkos.

I guess I just believe in their capabilities (Nylander and Matthews)

It's hard to move big money contracts, so if Marner, Nylander, Stamkos + a Fin worked out, it's likely 1 or 2 of those not named Stamkos walking.

Also worried long term about Stamkos's leg or if he's a centre, he's back at wing today...

Palat-Namestnikov-Stamkos
Killorn-Johnson-Kucherov
Brown-Filppula-Callahan
Paquette-Boyle-Marchessault (Condra)

I can see the flip side of the coin and Stamkos being a consistent scorer etc, but i'd like to draft our own franchise centre. We'll know who we have after the lottery balls drop and if we don't have the #1 pick, pretty safe bet we can draft a Fin or defenseman (if we get bumped back) and sign Stamkos maybe.

 

[mashedpotato]

Opening offer is usually never the best offer and negotiation always leave room for movement.

Odds are still pretty good this deal gets done and Stamkos remains in TB. I would realistically put the odds of Stamkos to TO at < 10%.

If the Leafs finished 30th overall their draft lottery odds would be 20% of getting the top pick.

Unfortunately, if Leaf fans are banking on either/or of these 2 options I think they will be disappointed as neither is the most likely outcome to me anyways.

So I really don't see either of these 2 scenarios being all that high of happening.

So in your mind, if the offer he rejected is low, what's stopping him from going to free market to get a contract that he'll accept?

 

[Buds17]

Matthews (and the cap space). I wouldn't give up the 1st OA used to draft Matthews even if we had - or were 100% certain of getting - Stamkos. Drafting Matthews wouldn't completely eliminate my interest in Stamkos, but it would make his acquisition less of a pressing need. The cap space is good, but isn't the main reason I'd choose this option.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Matthews would be the greatest thing to happen to this organization. He will be more helpful in 2020 and 2025. This is an easy choice. You can use the $10 million after to acquire a player equivalent to Stamkos.

 

[-DeMo-]

I think that should we win the lottery and take mathews, it would actually help us Cap wise should we sign Stamkos. in a round about way getting Mathews lessens the urgency level of getting Stamkos. I think that without Mathews the Leafs org might really covet Stamkos but getting Mathews and an almost surefire #1C and the interest in Stammer no longer a must get so to speak and therefore they might be able to offer stamkos less money and if he doesn't take it no big deal we just drafted Mathews whereas if we don't get Mathews they might feel getting Stamkos is really important and offer enough to leave no doubt he's coming to Toronto.

 

[Mess]

So in your mind, if the offer he rejected is low, what's stopping him from going to free market to get a contract that he'll accept?

Right now Stamkos is saying he would like to stay in TB and Yzerman says he is trying to get him signed so all things at the moment appear that both sides are interested in getting a deal done.

Stamkos holds the cards and can certainly go to UFA if he wants but Feb 2nd and July 1st still leaves 5 months to get a deal done.

The longer this goes the better the odds that he might head to the open market. However Toronto is not his only option as a UFA so its not TB or TOR as the only outcomes.

I'm in the camp that would love to have him in Toronto just being realistic in expectations of it actually happening even hypothetically.

 

[TMLegend]

Matthews every time. Cost controlled players is how you win in the NHL these days. You get that from the draft.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Matthews would be the greatest thing to happen to this organization. He will be more helpful in 2020 and 2025. This is an easy choice. You can use the $10 million after to acquire a player equivalent to Stamkos.

Because lots of players become available along the lines of Stamkos?

 

[ACC1224]

Matthews would be the greatest thing to happen to this organization. He will be more helpful in 2020 and 2025. This is an easy choice. You can use the $10 million after to acquire a player equivalent to Stamkos.

Any suggestions?