Prospect Info: St. Louis Blues Top-20 Prospects: #8

[Bluesnatic27]

The Blues 2020 - 2021 Top-20 Prospect List:
1) Klim Kostin - 61.3%
2) Scott Perunovich - 50%
3) Zachary Bolduc - 45.9%
4) Jake Neighbours - 63.8%
5) Simon Robertsson - 35.8%
6) Nikita Alexandrov - 62.1%
7) Joel Hofer - 72.1%

And the goalie Hofer takes the number 8 spot. As we all know by now, goalies are harder to predict than defense or offense. Saying that, Hofer is one goalie that has yet to give any reason why he should be doubted at this point. Playing his first year in the AHL, he had some eye opening numbers, just not positively. Yet, it should be noted how Utica was a disaster defensively and Hofer did play the most out of any goalie in Utica. Pretty remarkable given that Utica is Vancouver's affiliate and Hofer is only 21. So despite the sub par numbers, he seemed to have the trust of a coaching staff that has no reason to assist in the development of another NHL team's prospect. Granted, Hofer only has 10 games at the pro level under his belt. He will need at least another year before he sees the NHL, and my money is on him being two years away if that. Hopefully we see his numbers look better when put in a more stable environment where his development will be at the forefront of the coaching staff's mind in Springfield. The good news is Hofer plays that style of game that has historically fit well with the Blues. He plays angles well, pushes side-to-side effectively, and utilizes his 6'4" frame well. I know that is a more high-level view of his strengths, but I can't think of many glaring weaknesses to his game. As said prior, he has only played 10 games in the AHL on a defensively challenged team, so the data is not on his side for the finer details. Still, I really like Hofer and have yet to discover a reason to not like him. He could easily be a diamond in the rough in terms of standing around the league. But truthfully, I think he can be the right goalie for the right team. And there isn't anything wrong with that.

Time to start the voting for number 8!

Click to read more...

 

[EXTRAS]

Matt Kessel

 

[Blueston]

We’re in the crapshoot portion now.

 

[ezcreepin]

Honestly, I think you can make a case for probably 4 players here. Kessel seems to have probably proven the most collegiately with his championship, Ellis proved he was a capable starter (behind a really good team), Loof got a trial in the best Euro league in the SHL and apparently didn't look bad at all, and Tucker, despite all of the negatives that have circulated about his skills, his skating being AWFUL, his offense lacking during his draft year, one would think we wasted an albeit 7th round pick on a guy who would never develop. Yet somehow, someway, this guy has done nothing but improved at every level, challenging himself and everyone who doubted him. He apparently learned how to skate decently, became a scoring threat, proved he was capable in the AHL on a definitely bad roster but one that 2 clubs shared, and still managed 7 points in 27 games AND was a plus player in his first pro season.

I went with Kessel here only because I think his skills might translate the best at this current time, but I would not bat an eye if someone picked a guy like Tucker or any of the others mentioned. The cupboard feels bare, but the Blues might really have some nice players once it's all said and done.

 

[kimzey59]

I'm going with Ellis.
I think him and Hofer are pretty equal prospects.

 

[Beauterham]

Went with Ellis.

Only legit A-prospect left on the list.

After this I'm going with Kessel > Dickinson

 

[joe galiba]

Didn't vote cause I don't know

of course, that hasn't stopped me before

 

[Bluesnatic27]

First time I’ve posted in one of these (besides my long-winded summary at the beginning) and I’m torn between Kessel, Tucker, and Ellis. I went with Kessel, but I’ve been going back and forth on whether that was the right choice.

I suspect all three will go in the next three polls, but it’s hard to figure out the order.

 

[Brian39]

Hofer is one goalie that has yet to give any reason why he should be doubted at this point. Playing his first year in the AHL, he had some eye opening numbers, just not positively. Yet, it should be noted how Utica was a disaster defensively and Hofer did play the most out of any goalie in Utica. Pretty remarkable given that Utica is Vancouver's affiliate and Hofer is only 21. So despite the sub par numbers, he seemed to have the trust of a coaching staff that has no reason to assist in the development of another NHL team's prospect. Granted, Hofer only has 10 games at the pro level under his belt.

I feel like I have to point out that he just turned 21. He was 20 for the entirety of last season and turned 21 less than a month ago. The numbers in the AHL weren't great, but it is pretty rare for a 20 year old to lead an AHL team in starts. It is also worth noting that he absolutely wouldn't have led Utica in starts in a normal season. The Canucks opted to have DiPietro on the taxi squad almost all season so he could work full time with their goalie coach (who is top 5 in the world).

Last year was insanely weird for the hockey world outside the NHL. It remains to be seen how that strangeness will impact long-term prospect development, but I'm pretty pleased with the experience we got for Hofer in an objectively shitty situation. A handful of teams just didn't play last year, only 2 teams played 40+ games, and a bunch of teams played fewer than 30 games. Getting your 20 year old prospect 10 AHL starts AND letting him spend a good chunk of the season working with the NHL goalie coach is a pretty damn good outcome in those circumstances. I'm excited to see how that translates to next season.

My hope is that Hofer and Ellis are directly competing for a spot on the AHL team. Winner gets that spot, loser goes down to the ECHL and both get as many pro starts as their play justifies. If the ECHL guy tears it up, he has a chance to steal the AHL job. Lindgren is your other AHL goalie all year and the injury call up unless a youngster earns it (and it is a long enough injury that they might actually play; no sense bringing up Hofer/Ellis to sit on the bench in a hat for 2-3 games). Hopefully one of them plays well enough to earn 40-55 AHL starts while the other racks up the same number of ECHL starts.

 

[DatDude44]

Went with Ellis.

Only legit A-prospect left on the list.

After this I'm going with Kessel > Dickinson

Ellis is an A prospect to you?

 

[Beauterham]

Ellis is an A prospect to you?

If I cathegorise prospects I'd probably do it something like this:

- Blue chip (first line forwards, top pairing defensemen, great starter goalies)
- A-prospects (2nd line forwards, good 2nd pairing defensemen, low end starter goalies)
- B-prospects (3rd line forwards, low end 2nd pairing defensemen, good 3rd pairing defensemen, great backup goalies)
- C-prospects (4th line forwards, low end 3rd pairing defensemen, low end backup goalies)
- D-prospects (replacement level players)
- E-prospects (AHL/ECHL-level players)

So in that case, yeah... I'd put Ellis in the 'A' cathegory for now. However, he's a goalie so his development can still go all over the place.

 

[Robb_K]

I had Ellis just about where Hofer is, and Hofer above him mainly because of his size. For me it is between Lööf and Ellis, as no other forwards or defencemen are quite as promising (despite Tucker's improvement in skating and good progress, otherwise). So, I will pick Ellis here, because he's just about as likely to succeed as is Hofer.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Honestly, I think you can make a case for probably 4 players here. Kessel seems to have probably proven the most collegiately with his championship, Ellis proved he was a capable starter (behind a really good team), Loof got a trial in the best Euro league in the SHL and apparently didn't look bad at all, and Tucker, despite all of the negatives that have circulated about his skills, his skating being AWFUL, his offense lacking during his draft year, one would think we wasted an albeit 7th round pick on a guy who would never develop. Yet somehow, someway, this guy has done nothing but improved at every level, challenging himself and everyone who doubted him. He apparently learned how to skate decently, became a scoring threat, proved he was capable in the AHL on a definitely bad roster but one that 2 clubs shared, and still managed 7 points in 27 games AND was a plus player in his first pro season.

I went with Kessel here only because I think his skills might translate the best at this current time, but I would not bat an eye if someone picked a guy like Tucker or any of the others mentioned. The cupboard feels bare, but the Blues might really have some nice players once it's all said and done.

yup... think folks are sleeping on Tucker. he seems to define the saying "dmen take longer to develope'. kid has done nothing but get better and better
have high hopes for him (think 2nd pairing)

 

[Majorityof1]

Went with Ellis. I would have had him 3rd on my list after Hofer, so this is a no brainer.

Ellis led the Q in GAA and Save percentage. His athleticism and lateral movement is tremendous, but he is a bit of a project in terms of a few fundamentals. He is not the best stick-handler, and compunds that by being over-agrressive. He has a tendency to overcommit and over slide due to his agressiveness. His athleticism saves him in the Q, but won't in the NHL. Think Jake Allen. Now I know we all have PTSD from some of Allen's horrible goals. But I'd definitely take a young Allen on a ELC. Allen wasn't a problem until we gave him a hefty contract and he couldn't handle the starter role. Allen's biggest issue was his head game. There is nothing to indicate Ellis will have the same issues and will not be able to work on his fundamentals, and reign in his aggressiveness.

Goalies are a crap shoot, but Ellis has a ton of potential. You can teach fundamentals, but you can't teach athleticism and reflexes like he has. That potential upside of a mentally tough Jake Allen on an ELC is far more valuable to me than almost any prospect we have, and definitely anything we have left.

 

[Memento]

Went with Loof, like the last one. I'm sorry, but I don't trust goalie prospects. After Loof, then I'll go with Peterson, then Dickinson, then Kessel.

 

[stl76]

Kessel by a decent margin for me here.

IMO the question with Kessel isn't "can he be an NHLer?"; it's "how big of an impact will he make?".

 

[ezcreepin]

Went with Ellis. I would have had him 3rd on my list after Hofer, so this is a no brainer.

Ellis led the Q in GAA and Save percentage. His athleticism and lateral movement is tremendous, but he is a bit of a project in terms of a few fundamentals. He is not the best stick-handler, and compunds that by being over-agrressive. He has a tendency to overcommit and over slide due to his agressiveness. His athleticism saves him in the Q, but won't in the NHL. Think Jake Allen. Now I know we all have PTSD from some of Allen's horrible goals. But I'd definitely take a young Allen on a ELC. Allen wasn't a problem until we gave him a hefty contract and he couldn't handle the starter role. Allen's biggest issue was his head game. There is nothing to indicate Ellis will have the same issues and will not be able to work on his fundamentals, and reign in his aggressiveness.

Goalies are a crap shoot, but Ellis has a ton of potential. You can teach fundamentals, but you can't teach athleticism and reflexes like he has. That potential upside of a mentally tough Jake Allen on an ELC is far more valuable to me than almost any prospect we have, and definitely anything we have left.

I haven't watched any video of Ellis, but it's hard for me to look at his numbers and say that he earned those numbers since he was on pretty good teams his entire career. On the other hand though, he basically led every team he was on in goaltending stats, so it's also hard for me to say he wasn't the one propelling his team to be top 5 in the league. I seems like he has legit talent, but how much talent he has at the next level and further is hard to predict for me. I think Ellis might have the biggest boom potential for the rest of the players left, but his floor is roughly about the same as the rest of the guys, something like Ellis being a quality backup ~ Kessel being a 3rd pairing defenseman.

 

[Beauterham]

yup... think folks are sleeping on Tucker. he seems to define the saying "dmen take longer to develope'. kid has done nothing but get better and better
have high hopes for him (think 2nd pairing)

Tucker still needs to go a long way to become a 2nd pairing NHL defenseman. He started last season quite well as a defensive defenseman next to Steven Santini, but as soon as Santini was called up to the taxisquad he became really inconsistent. That's probably something that will grow with experience. He came from far since his draftyear, but he still has to improve quite a lot to become more than a bottom pairing defenseman. At the moment I'm not pencilling him in for more than a 'future left handed version of Bortuzzo'. Which is still really good for where he's picked in the draft.

 

[ezcreepin]

Tucker still needs to go a long way to become a 2nd pairing NHL defenseman. He started last season quite well as a defensive defenseman next to Steven Santini, but as soon as Santini was called up to the taxisquad he became really inconsistent. That's probably something that will grow with experience. He came from far since his draftyear, but he still has to improve quite a lot to become more than a bottom pairing defenseman. At the moment I'm not pencilling him in for more than a 'future left handed version of Bortuzzo'. Which is still really good for where he's picked in the draft.

In what aspect would you say he was inconsistent in later in the year? I don't ever get to watch AHL games, but his numbers suggest he got more comfortable using his offensive skills the further into the year he got. His last 10 games he went 1-5-6, +5, and had 22 shots. Unfortunately I can't see his ice time, but if I had to guess, he was probably playing somewhere around 17-19 min a night, maybe a bit more. Compared to the beginning of the year, it seems like he was contributing more positively than not, but I honestly don't know.

 

[Beauterham]

In what aspect would you say he was inconsistent in later in the year? I don't ever get to watch AHL games, but his numbers suggest he got more comfortable using his offensive skills the further into the year he got. His last 10 games he went 1-5-6, +5, and had 22 shots. Unfortunately I can't see his ice time, but if I had to guess, he was probably playing somewhere around 17-19 min a night, maybe a bit more. Compared to the beginning of the year, it seems like he was contributing more positively than not, but I honestly don't know.

Tucker started the season on the first pairing with Santini attached to his hip. They were mostly used against the opponents toplines and they were quite good at doing so, although Tucker hardly had the opportunity to show what he was capable of offensively he was quite sound defensively.

When Santini got called up he was paired with Reinke. This didn't do him any good, as he often made boneheaded mistakes that costed Utica more than a couple of goals against. There were games where Tucker was a real liability. Reinke is quite decent offensively but can't defend if his life is depending on it. I think Tucker just had to carry too much of the defensive load and just tried to hit everything he could and overall do too much. After Reinke got called up he was paired with random AHL-guys, he wasn't regularly put up against the toplines anymore. This seem to relieve some stress as he slowly got better at the end of the season and was also able to contribute more offensively.

He probably needs at least a couple of seasons in the AHL untill he is ready for the NHL. He already improved his skating, balance, agilty, but it could still use some improvement, especially if he eventually wants to become more than a 3rd pairing guy.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Tucker still needs to go a long way to become a 2nd pairing NHL defenseman. He started last season quite well as a defensive defenseman next to Steven Santini, but as soon as Santini was called up to the taxisquad he became really inconsistent. That's probably something that will grow with experience. He came from far since his draftyear, but he still has to improve quite a lot to become more than a bottom pairing defenseman. At the moment I'm not pencilling him in for more than a 'future left handed version of Bortuzzo'. Which is still really good for where he's picked in the draft.

I agree he needs some seasoning, but he HAS gotten much better.. when he was drafted he was "hope he can".. now, he's showing it.
I believe if he keeps going he could be a 2nd pairing guy. if not, bottom pairing wouldn't be the end of the world, altho I think he can be more. Same with Mikkola

 

[ezcreepin]

Tucker started the season on the first pairing with Santini attached to his hip. They were mostly used against the opponents toplines and they were quite good at doing so, although Tucker hardly had the opportunity to show what he was capable of offensively he was quite sound defensively.

When Santini got called up he was paired with Reinke. This didn't do him any good, as he often made boneheaded mistakes that costed Utica more than a couple of goals against. There were games where Tucker was a real liability. Reinke is quite decent offensively but can't defend if his life is depending on it. I think Tucker just had to carry too much of the defensive load and just tried to hit everything he could and overall do too much. After Reinke got called up he was paired with random AHL-guys, he wasn't regularly put up against the toplines anymore. This seem to relieve some stress as he slowly got better at the end of the season and was also able to contribute more offensively.

He probably needs at least a couple of seasons in the AHL untill he is ready for the NHL. He already improved his skating, balance, agilty, but it could still use some improvement, especially if he eventually wants to become more than a 3rd pairing guy.

Gotcha, thanks for the writeup! Yea there is a bunch of games you can tell where he really didn't show anything on the scoresheet and seemed to be a minus player, but I can't really tell pk numbers, blocks, or anything like that so it's kind of up to whether you've watched him or not. Hopefully he'll be paired with a good defensive partner because I truly think he has the potential to be at least a bottom pairing guy.

 

[Robb_K]

I agree he needs some seasoning, but he HAS gotten much better.. when he was drafted he was "hope he can".. now, he's showing it.
I believe if he keeps going he could be a 2nd pairing guy. if not, bottom pairing wouldn't be the end of the world, altho I think he can be more. Same with Mikkola

I agree that Mikkola can (and probably should progress enough to become a 2nd pairing defenceman (at least a #4), based on his past progression.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

I agree that Mikkola can (and probably should progress enough to become a 2nd pairing defenceman (at least a #4), based on his past progression.

agree with this as well. not sure it'll be this next season, but maybe the season after that. he's def got the tools to do so. needs to add some weight

 

[Robb_K]

agree with this as well. not sure it'll be this next season, but maybe the season after that. he's def got the tools to do so. needs to add some weight

Yes. Adding a decent amount of muscle weight and strength will send him up to the next level, along with the added experience and comfort and confidence he'll get just by playing more NHL games.