Prospect Info: St. Louis Blues Top-20 Prospects: #5

[Bluesnatic27]

The Blues 2020 - 2021 Top-20 Prospect List:
1) Klim Kostin - 61.3%
2) Scott Perunovich - 50%
3) Zachary Bolduc - 45.9%
4) Jake Neighbours - 63.8%

Jake Neighbours takes the number 4 spot. The winger didn't have many games in his draft+1 year, but he did make the most of the few he did. Scoring at a 1.7 PPG and leading his team in points is impressive in any junior league. He's the kind of player that doesn't have many question marks on whether he will reach the NHL in some capacity. The question marks surrounding him will always be how far he can go. I didn't get to see him last year so I don't know how he progressed, so his report will be a tad shorter than others. But the biggest obstacle in his way to becoming a top-6 forward will be developing a more robust/creative game in the offensive zone. I think that's a tall order myself, but it's entirely possible that last year was the start of such a growth. And if nothing else, a simplified high-aggression, high-tempo game can still be used in a top-6 setting, if not in any other line on an NHL team. And while this will be his draft+2 season, I'm probably going to look at like a draft+1½. I don't wish to judge the guy too harshly if his next season isn't some record statement because of his situation. But with the Oil Kings looking like a pretty darn good team for this next upcoming season, Neightbours might not need a handicap at all.

On to #5!

Click to read more...

 

[sfvega]

Comes down to Robertsson, Alexandrov, and Hofer. I think Robertsson has the highest upside.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Hofer, Robertsson, Alexandrov the next couple for me.

 

[Reality Czech]

I don't know that much about prospects, but it seems like there is a lot of hype for this recent 3rd round pick. Even if Robertsson ends up reaching the potential some people are predicting, it's hard for me to imagine he'd be ranked higher than a former 2nd round pick that's had more time to develop. Went Alexandrov here, although I can see an argument for Hofer as well.

 

[Blueston]

Hofer over Alexandrov.

 

[542365]

I don't know that much about prospects, but it seems like there is a lot of hype for this recent 3rd round pick. Even if Robertsson ends up reaching the potential some people are predicting, it's hard for me to imagine he'd be ranked higher than a former 2nd round pick that's had more time to develop. Went Alexandrov here, although I can see an argument for Hofer as well.

They were only selected 9 picks apart, 62 and 71 respectively. At that stage of the draft there isn’t much of a difference.

That said, I also went Alexandrov. Seems like a safe bet to be an NHLer. Probably a 3rd liner, but still a contributor.

 

[Beauterham]

Going with the Hof' here....





(No, not that one...)

 

[Reality Czech]

Going with the Hof' here....





(No, not that one...)

I hear Hofer has a huge following in Germany.

 

[Beauterham]

I hear Hofer has a huge following in Germany.

Well, he did single handedly took down the Berlin Wall...

 

[Brian39]

Vote for a goalie you cowards

 

[DatDude44]

Between Alexandrov and Robertsson for me.... overall upside it's robertsson, but alexandrov is very close and has a very good chance to become a Lars Eller type of player for us for a long time.

Gonna go with the long term upside here in robertsson but alexandrov is next for me.......it's kinda dumb for any of us who aren't experts on goaltending evaluation to include hofer/ellis etc... it'd almost be better to have a just skater ranking and just goaltender rankings

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I hear The Hof has a huge following in Germany.

fify
I was just about to post this. Yes he does.

 

[Celtic Note]

Vote for a goalie you cowards

I support this message in good ribbing fashion.

 

[Brockon]

Vote for a goalie you cowards

Vote for the guy with the numbers all over the place that doesn't seem to have any consistency in how he's been deployed for his development? Great WJC numbers, less impressive AHL numbers - concerning amount of AHL games played... I couldn't draft the guy in my fantasy pool - too many flags against Hofer relative to the field. That he's even in contention for #5 prospect (and has been getting support earlier) is an indictment of how bare our cupboards are.

I mean goalie development is so hard to project, but now that my manliness has been called into question, by golly I'd better vote for a tendy! I'm gobsmacked by the soundness of your arguments!

 

[Majorityof1]

Vote for the guy with the numbers all over the place that doesn't seem to have any consistency in how he's been deployed for his development? Great WJC numbers, less impressive AHL numbers - concerning amount of AHL games played... I couldn't draft the guy in my fantasy pool - too many flags against Hofer relative to the field. That he's even in contention for #5 prospect (and has been getting support earlier) is an indictment of how bare our cupboards are.

I mean goalie development is so hard to project, but now that my manliness has been called into question, by golly I'd better vote for a tendy! I'm gobsmacked by the soundness of your arguments!

Maybe look beyond save percentage and GAA. Why are his numbers inconsistent? Because he has played on terrible teams. He led the league in shots against in one of his junior years by a huge margin. And we aren't talking about unscreened floaters from the point, but lots of good high danger shots. His team graduated like half their starters and were really, really bad that year. Our shared AHLteam was also really bad.

The lack of consistency in his deployment is actually a compliment. The Blues were bullish enough on him that they wanted him on the taxi squad and in NHL practices in his first pro year. Would they do that for a guy who they had no faith in or they thought needed a ton of work? Also, we were sharing our AHL team. There were 6 goalies that needed to split 28 games of the shortened season. How many games was he supposed to get on Devils AHL team?

So besides those two things which are easily explained, what are these red flags?

 

[Celtic Note]

Vote for the guy with the numbers all over the place that doesn't seem to have any consistency in how he's been deployed for his development? Great WJC numbers, less impressive AHL numbers - concerning amount of AHL games played... I couldn't draft the guy in my fantasy pool - too many flags against Hofer relative to the field. That he's even in contention for #5 prospect (and has been getting support earlier) is an indictment of how bare our cupboards are.

I mean goalie development is so hard to project, but now that my manliness has been called into question, by golly I'd better vote for a tendy! I'm gobsmacked by the soundness of your arguments!

What do you mean his numbers are all over the place? His WHL numbers are relatively consistent all things considered despite being on some bad teams. He did have a fantastic WJC, but that is a small sample size. His AHL career is what, 11 games total and largely based on a shortened season on multiple levels. It’s his first year in the AHL and he was playing a backup (read shared) role which is hard to establish any consistency, especially as a rookie. I am not sure what one would expect.

 

[Beauterham]

Vote for the guy with the numbers all over the place that doesn't seem to have any consistency in how he's been deployed for his development? Great WJC numbers, less impressive AHL numbers - concerning amount of AHL games played... I couldn't draft the guy in my fantasy pool - too many flags against Hofer relative to the field. That he's even in contention for #5 prospect (and has been getting support earlier) is an indictment of how bare our cupboards are.

I mean goalie development is so hard to project, but now that my manliness has been called into question, by golly I'd better vote for a tendy! I'm gobsmacked by the soundness of your arguments!

This is a perfect example of how statwatching doesn't tell the entire story. Hofer was good at Utica, he was really, really good. Utica was just a defensive mess. Vancouver had a lot of injuries (and some Covid trouble) that made them call up most of their good to decent players: Lind, Rathbone, etcetera. The Blues also had, mostly, defensive troubles so at that time had moved Santini and Reinke to the taxi squad. The only decent defenders Hofer had in front of him were Tucker (was was inconsistent as it can be) and Jett Woo. All other defenseman were AHL-lifers: Nathan Staouis, Josh Wesley, Mitch Eliot, Josh Teves... That's more the issue why Hofers numbers seem low. In actuality Hofer was making highlight reel save after save and prevented the Comets from plummeting even further. To be honest, from what I've seen I can't remember him even taking a single bad goal in his time with the Comets.

The concerning amount of AHL games is due to the Blues putting Hofer in the taxi squad at the start of the season and calling him back up for the taxi squad at the end of the season. At the time he was in Utica he was used as a 1A/1B rotation with Mikey DiPietro, Vancouvers Blue chip goalie.

 

[ezcreepin]

This is a perfect example of how statwatching doesn't tell the entire story. Hofer was good at Utica, he was really, really good. Utica was just a defensive mess. Vancouver had a lot of injuries (and some Covid trouble) that made them call up most of their good to decent players: Lind, Rathbone, etcetera. The Blues also had, mostly, defensive troubles so at that time had moved Santini and Reinke to the taxi squad. The only decent defenders Hofer had in front of him were Tucker (was was inconsistent as it can be) and Jett Woo. All other defenseman were AHL-lifers: Nathan Staouis, Josh Wesley, Mitch Eliot, Josh Teves... That's more the issue why Hofers numbers seem low. In actuality Hofer was making highlight reel save after save and prevented the Comets from plummeting even further. To be honest, from what I've seen I can't remember him even taking a single bad goal in his time with the Comets.

The concerning amount of AHL games is due to the Blues putting Hofer in the taxi squad at the start of the season and calling him back up for the taxi squad at the end of the season. At the time he was in Utica he was used as a 1A/1B rotation with Mikey DiPietro, Vancouvers Blue chip goalie.

Unfortunately, there are only a few people who can and will watch video of goalies in its entirety. This is probably where the lack of discussion of these guys is coming from, and where most of the "stat ranking" so to speak stems from. I personally don't watch a ton of video on goalies, and rarely get a chance to watch prospects in the AHL, so nearly all of my rankings are solely from stat watching. It's more so criticism of how I rank, but honestly we're all probably pretty busy, so I don't put a whole lot of stock into it. I do, however, appreciate all of the prospect summaries and evaluations that some guys do on here, but honestly I don't like ranking goalies for the fact that sometimes they just never pan out. I believe Ellis and Hofer are good goalie prospects, it's just a matter of figuring out how much they will contribute to the team than will guys like Alexandrov, Robertsson, etc.

 

[Brockon]

Maybe look beyond save percentage and GAA. Why are his numbers inconsistent? Because he has played on terrible teams. He led the league in shots against in one of his junior years by a huge margin. And we aren't talking about unscreened floaters from the point, but lots of good high danger shots. His team graduated like half their starters and were really, really bad that year. Our shared AHLteam was also really bad.

The lack of consistency in his deployment is actually a compliment. The Blues were bullish enough on him that they wanted him on the taxi squad and in NHL practices in his first pro year. Would they do that for a guy who they had no faith in or they thought needed a ton of work? Also, we were sharing our AHL team. There were 6 goalies that needed to split 28 games of the shortened season. How many games was he supposed to get on Devils AHL team?

So besides those two things which are easily explained, what are these red flags?

Give me some time to locate his draft scouting profiles, as I'm having trouble remembering all the specifics. All I'm finding now is updated stuff from post draft - which doesn't jive with why I passed on him in a fantasy draft done in July 2018.

It goes beyond stats. Some overreliance on athleticism and a few other notables dating back into early 2018. Coachable, possibly. Not an impact player in our perceived window when ownership and DA are spending to the cap.

Add that into a position notoriously difficult to predict and I'll take the forward nearing an NHL role over a goalie unlikely to see regular NHL duty in the next 3 seasons.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Hofer is legit. Ellis is very promising. Zherenko has a big test this year in Liiga to see if his success in Russia actually means anything. Cranley is a complete unknown AFAIC. It’s a good goalie corps to have, and Hofer is definitely atop the pile.

Still went Alexandrov here

 

[kimzey59]

I'm going Robertsson here. Nothing against Alexandrov, but I think Robertsson has higher upside.
Alexandrov next, then the 2 goalies to round out the top 9.

 

[Brian39]

Vote for the guy with the numbers all over the place that doesn't seem to have any consistency in how he's been deployed for his development? Great WJC numbers, less impressive AHL numbers - concerning amount of AHL games played... I couldn't draft the guy in my fantasy pool - too many flags against Hofer relative to the field. That he's even in contention for #5 prospect (and has been getting support earlier) is an indictment of how bare our cupboards are.

I mean goalie development is so hard to project, but now that my manliness has been called into question, by golly I'd better vote for a tendy! I'm gobsmacked by the soundness of your arguments!

LOL, I was being very sarcastic in my initial post and definitely am not so in love with my Hofer selection that I actually believe anyone voting otherwise is a coward. Just having some fun after I commented in another thread how life/COVID/etc has preventing me from actually watching all but a few players in our prospect pool. I'm voting Hofer because I'm a goalie and want a goalie high in this list.

I wouldn't say his number are all over the place. In 3 WHL seasons his end of year SV% was .914, .906, and .915. And that .906 was split between 2 teams where he posted a .904 for the worst team in the league before being traded to a low-seed playoff team where he posted a .911. He was performed substantially better than his backup in Swift Current before being traded and then took the starting job in Portland. He was a backup as a 17 year old in his 1st major junior season and then the clear cut starter as an 18 and 19 year old. At 20, he joined the AHL in a year where COVID demolished the schedule and we didn't have our own team. Despite spending about half the season as our taxi squad goalie, he led Utica in starts in a 6 goalie situation. I really don't think it is accurate to say that his numbers are all over the place or that he hasn't had deployment consistency through his development. As a just-turned 21 year old former 4th round pick he is still very early in his development, but I haven't seen any red flags with how that development has gone so far.

What is your fantasy pool setup where 4th round goalie prospects are getting drafted in their draft year? That's gotta be a 30 team league with full NHL and prospect rosters, right?

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

I'm going Robertsson here. Nothing against Alexandrov, but I think Robertsson has higher upside.
Alexandrov next, then the 2 goalies to round out the top 9.

I like what I've read of alexandrov. seems he has 2c upside. not as much talent as a thomas but more 'steady' maybe

anybody ever figure out why robertsson dropped so low? was it really just that one bad tourny??

 

[Brockon]

LOL, I was being very sarcastic in my initial post and definitely am not so in love with my Hofer selection that I actually believe anyone voting otherwise is a coward. Just having some fun after I commented in another thread how life/COVID/etc has preventing me from actually watching all but a few players in our prospect pool. I'm voting Hofer because I'm a goalie and want a goalie high in this list.

I wouldn't say his number are all over the place. In 3 WHL seasons his end of year SV% was .914, .906, and .915. And that .906 was split between 2 teams where he posted a .904 for the worst team in the league before being traded to a low-seed playoff team where he posted a .911. He was performed substantially better than his backup in Swift Current before being traded and then took the starting job in Portland. He was a backup as a 17 year old in his 1st major junior season and then the clear cut starter as an 18 and 19 year old. At 20, he joined the AHL in a year where COVID demolished the schedule and we didn't have our own team. Despite spending about half the season as our taxi squad goalie, he led Utica in starts in a 6 goalie situation. I really don't think it is accurate to say that his numbers are all over the place or that he hasn't had deployment consistency through his development. As a just-turned 21 year old former 4th round pick he is still very early in his development, but I haven't seen any red flags with how that development has gone so far.

What is your fantasy pool setup where 4th round goalie prospects are getting drafted in their draft year? That's gotta be a 30 team league with full NHL and prospect rosters, right?

12 team Dynasty salary league. 25 man NHL scoring roster, 35 man AHL squad (call ups, and players you're hoping develop into something) and 3 years of entry draft selections in your Juniors. Each team typically has 75-95 players (depending on how many junior eligible prospects they have) across the 3 rosters for up to 1008 players spoken for.

8 round entry draft, juniors from the 3rd previous draft need to be signed to your minors or dropped before the start of the next draft (2019 draftees need to be signed to a roster spot or released to free agency before the start of the 2022 entry draft next July).

Scoring is weekly H2H G, A, PPP, SHP, PIMs, hits and Blocks for skaters, W, GAA, SV%, Saves and Shutouts for goalies.

Our first round for this year's entry draft
Round 1
1.

Ottawa - Matty Beniers (F, SEA)
2.

Toronto - Jesper Wallstedt (G, MIN)
3.

Berlin - Sebastian Cossa (G, DET)
4.

St. Louis - William Eklund (F, SJ)
5.

Arizona - Owen Power (D, BUF)
6.

Moscow (via CHI) - Dylan Guenther (F, ARI)
7.

Ottawa - Mason McTavish (F, ANH)
8.

Tampere - Kent Johnson (F, CBJ)
9.

Anaheim - Fabian Lysell (F, BOS)
10.

Toronto - Luke Hughes (D, NJ)
11.

Pittsburgh - Tyler Boucher (F, OTT)
12.

Moscow - Brandt Clarke (D, LA)

Goalies go early in this pool. Hofer went #25 in 2018 - I couldn't justify taking him at #24 with Isac Lundestrom, Akil Thomas and Rasmus Kupari on the board.

 

[tfriede2]

I like what I've read of alexandrov. seems he has 2c upside. not as much talent as a thomas but more 'steady' maybe

anybody ever figure out why robertsson dropped so low? was it really just that one bad tourny??

I think Alexandrov’s projection is much closer to Barbashev, which wouldn’t be bad at all.