Celtic Note
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Not sure I quite agree, but both are good prospects that probably should get ranked higher than they will.
Prospect Info: St. Louis Blues Top-20 Prospects: #2
- Thread starter Bluesnatic27
- Start date
ChicagoBlues
Sentient
- Oct 24, 2006
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Kostin and Perunovich have been prospects for a while. Folks have read about them for couple years. Seen them. It’s natural folks gravitate towards them rather than guys they are less familiar with.
Personally, I’m not sold that Kostin has top 6 upside but he is nhl ready so that adds to his appeal too. I liked Perunovich much more before we signed Krug, as I’m not sure that we want both in lineup. So I lean towards Neighbours and Bolduc as our top 2 prospects. YMMV.
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Thallis
No half measures
ezcreepin
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- Dec 5, 2016
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I feel confident he will play somewhere in the NHL. How effective will he be? I'm not sure, but I think he probably projects to be somewhere around Dunn +/- a bit. Or, he could develop into a well rounded defenseman? That's the exciting part for all of us I think.
Hey, I'm with you. If you're actually getting mad about discussions regarding prospects, then there are things you should reevaluate in your life or stay off the internet. I really enjoy hearing people's opinions about players and what they think, because there could be something in there that will change my mind that I haven't considered. But I agree.
Sure, I can see your argument here, but if people are relatively consistent in their votings, then maybe there is something to it. I try not to look too hard into who is voting for what in any context, but usually if people are voting in certain ways, then it's probably more indicative of what's more correct (not always though!). I think I probably hold more value to players who I'm confident will play rather than their individual skillsets. ie Robertsson has an insane shot, but has had limited viewings. Kostin has questionable decision making, but proved he can be really effective both in regular season and playoffs. If, for example, we had drafted Neighbours, Alexandrov, Bolduc, and Robertsson at the same time, I think I would've rated... hmmm.... maybe Bolduc, Robertsson... Neighbours, then Alexandrov? However, I think both Neighbours and Alexandrov were quite even to me when we drafted them. Bolduc obviously has great skills and projects better than the previous two, but Robertsson's shooting is super important as well. Plus he's a bigger guy, so him translating may not be too difficult for him, but I'd like him to develop better passing/utilization of teammates. Apparently he's determined on defending too, so that's always a plus.
LGB
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- Feb 4, 2019
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I agree this board is pretty biased towards older prospects. Sure Kostin and Perunovich will play in the NHL, but if they're not good once they get here it doesn't really matter. I'm lower on Perunovich than most because I think his physical limitations will be tough to overcome, but I can see an argument for him as our top prospect based on his college career. Kostin's production has been pretty mediocre at every level. It's hard for me to see an argument for him over Bolduc who was picked in a spot that produces a lot more good NHL players, and Neighbours who was also picked higher and had a really strong season last year.
At the expense of sounding like a broken record, I am just suggesting that we put the brakes on Perunovich being a "can't miss" NHL'er until we see him play in a professional league. He has just played College and International hockey thus far. Let's at least see how he fares against men in the AHL and see how he holds up. Remember, he hasn't played a single professional game.
I remain skeptical about Kostin ever reaching his potential. I’m glad he had a good experience in the KHL, but I’m not so sure that performance extrapolates to a guy ready to integrate into an NHL role immediately. I hope he proves me wrong.
It comes off a little condescending to assume people voting Perunovich aren’t basing their vote off of careful independent thought. What evidence is there that this is groupthink? There are pretty limited options for the top 3-4 Blues prospects. It’s not surprising that lots of people prefer the same guy.
It comes off a little condescending to assume people voting Perunovich aren’t basing their vote off of careful independent thought. What evidence is there that this is groupthink? There are pretty limited options for the top 3-4 Blues prospects. It’s not surprising that lots of people prefer the same guy.
ezcreepin
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Not to mention that a lot of prospects we have feel somewhat even. Perunovich, Neighbours, Alexandrov, Bolduc, and Robertsson all feature good skills, but none feel head and shoulders above the other (in my opinion). Peru is very small, but his offense feels very strong. Neighbours was the best forward for most of the season, but he didn't do it for an entire season. I remember his skating being average, but that may have changed since 2 years ago. Alexandrov is responsible in both ends, but maybe he explodes this year in the AHL? Bolduc has top end/top 6 skills, but needs rounding out to be NHL ready. Robertsson needs more seasoning, but his shot is incredible. Lots of things to highly rate on these guys, but there are also weaknesses they can work on as well. As Majorityof1 said, people will rate things differenly in their own opinion, but it seems like people value age in most cases, then draft ranking vs anything else. At least that seems to be the impression.
Beauterham
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- Aug 19, 2018
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I wouldn't call it 'groupthink', but to me it's clear that people are influenced by media and other fans. I think @Majorityof1's example of Kostin was spot on. He's right: the opinion was that Kostin was subpar for a large part of that season and I've read on multiple occasions that people thought he was busting. If you'd ask the Blues fans at that point who was the best prospect, he probably wouldn't be in the top-3. At the end of the season he got better, won a spot on Avangard's 1st line and played really well in their play-offs winning the praise of his coach, and suddenly he's our best prospect again.
Don't get me wrong, everyone has their own criteria for choosing a prospect, but it's undeniable that we're all (myself included) influenced by media and other voices (like other fan's opinions).
Beauterham
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A bit of nitpicking: The Blues don't have the rights to Jérémy Michel anymore, so we shouldn't be able to vote for him.
Exactly... You will see how slight he really is quickly. I'm not so sure that he is fast enough, gritty enough or smart enough to overcome that at the AHL level or the bigger step...the NHL level. I'm rooting for the kid, but I watch a lot of college hockey. He is small. I think it may be worth moving him to a wing, if he can't compensate for it defensively. The skill is definitely there. I just see a European star in the making....Pervyshin part II. Robertsson for me here. interchangeable with Neighbours, Bolduc, and Alexandrov.
Celtic Note
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Perunovich has the highest potential of our prospects outside of our goalies. Given the lack of sure fire, top-end guys, he is my pick. He could bust but let’s be honest, there isn’t a prospect here who couldn’t relative to their ceilings. If picking Perunovich is taking a risk, so is picking any other guy on the list.
Honestly these rankings are going to be skewed towards familiarity bias for two reasons. First, we just had the haze of COVID cloud everyone’s assessment of prospects, both draft eligible and already drafted. There were less viewings across the board. Draft consensus was weak, as was this supposed draft class. Assessing already drafted prospects is the same. Some guys played, some more than others, and some not at all. That skews assessments toward guys who played. They could either move up or down your rankings. Guys who didn’t play stayed in neutral. I would wager that guys who played well at some point last year will have a disproportionate skew in their favor as we couldn’t compare that against the rest of the pool at what they would have done if they played.
Second, because there is such limited viewership of the newly drafted players and because we are doing rankings so soon after the draft, many will not have had time to perform their due diligence. I personally have not and it will undoubtedly poison this round of ranking for me. In one or two months time my list will look different more so then any other year. Once we see players this year that list will solidify more than it has in the past.
On the matter of goalies, we have two guys in Ellis and Hofer who are charting comparable paths as Allen and Binnington. Those two may end up some of our most valued players coming out of this pool. They should absolutely be in the 2nd tier conversation after Kostin and Perunovich. They probably should even be in the conversation with Kostin and Perunovich for top prospects. The Blues are building depth in the pool, but this reads a lot like the Ratty, Jaskin and Binnington years. Binnington is clearly the most valuable guy of the bunch and he was not rated as high as them year over year. We could say similar things with Allen and Bishop. Yet I hear goalies are hard to judge. Well clearly all players are hard to judge too. We just conveniently leave that part out for some reason. Maybe it’s just to make creating these lists easier and so we can avoid more ego hit when we are wrong. Dunno?
Honestly these rankings are going to be skewed towards familiarity bias for two reasons. First, we just had the haze of COVID cloud everyone’s assessment of prospects, both draft eligible and already drafted. There were less viewings across the board. Draft consensus was weak, as was this supposed draft class. Assessing already drafted prospects is the same. Some guys played, some more than others, and some not at all. That skews assessments toward guys who played. They could either move up or down your rankings. Guys who didn’t play stayed in neutral. I would wager that guys who played well at some point last year will have a disproportionate skew in their favor as we couldn’t compare that against the rest of the pool at what they would have done if they played.
Second, because there is such limited viewership of the newly drafted players and because we are doing rankings so soon after the draft, many will not have had time to perform their due diligence. I personally have not and it will undoubtedly poison this round of ranking for me. In one or two months time my list will look different more so then any other year. Once we see players this year that list will solidify more than it has in the past.
On the matter of goalies, we have two guys in Ellis and Hofer who are charting comparable paths as Allen and Binnington. Those two may end up some of our most valued players coming out of this pool. They should absolutely be in the 2nd tier conversation after Kostin and Perunovich. They probably should even be in the conversation with Kostin and Perunovich for top prospects. The Blues are building depth in the pool, but this reads a lot like the Ratty, Jaskin and Binnington years. Binnington is clearly the most valuable guy of the bunch and he was not rated as high as them year over year. We could say similar things with Allen and Bishop. Yet I hear goalies are hard to judge. Well clearly all players are hard to judge too. We just conveniently leave that part out for some reason. Maybe it’s just to make creating these lists easier and so we can avoid more ego hit when we are wrong. Dunno?
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My opinion of Kostin is mainly based on my views of him in San Antonio and reading between the lines from comments from coaches. Not every guy that stars in the KHL has thrived in the NHL. I still remember Barbashev looking good centering Tarasenko in a post-season situation for a short stint. It would have been a mistake to extrapolate much from that.
Anyway, my point is that my opinion is my own. It may be wrong, and I hope it is, but it’s not derived from a poll.
Celtic Note
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I have mentioned my desire to see how Klim does in NA. KHL success does not equate to NHL success, though it can. I want to see what Klim can do in an environment with less space. I believe the AHL has less that the KHL and the NHL has even less space to operate. For some players this is the difference between skilled tweeter and standout player. For others it has less impact. It’s unclear how Klim will fair, but the one thing I know from AHL viewings is he has done a poor job of utilizing his teammates. That is often a death knell at the NHL level where time and space is at a premium. If he figured that out in the KHL then I will be less concerned. If not, it will create a ceiling on his potential.
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Oberyn
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I like Bolduc quite a bit and went with him here, I voted him 1st in the last poll as well. I think he has the highest potential offensively and he has a really nice skill set that can translate to the NHL. I'm a bit hesitant on Perunovich right now due to him missing an entire season of pro play, it's tough losing a whole year of development.
Celtic Note
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It will be really interesting in the coming years to see how missing a year impacts players’ development. I am not sure what to expect on that front. Some may not be phased. Some may have used their time wisely to build up their bodies and good habits. Others may have seen it as a vacation. Getting back up to speed could be a challenge for many. But, were there enough players not playing that it won’t matter much in the grand scheme of things?
This is certainly something to keep an eye on.
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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I voted Hofer because I like goalies and he is slightly further along his development path than Ellis.
And I make that vote with the full, unbridled confidence that comes from watching a handful of clips of these kids and zero full games. I watched a few of Perunvich's college games, but other than that I haven't watched any of these kids really play. I don't have the time to watch leagues outside the NHL anymore and COVID shutdowns made that even worse. Thanks for the write ups everyone, but I'm just going to continuously vote for our goalie prospects until they are on the list.
And I make that vote with the full, unbridled confidence that comes from watching a handful of clips of these kids and zero full games. I watched a few of Perunvich's college games, but other than that I haven't watched any of these kids really play. I don't have the time to watch leagues outside the NHL anymore and COVID shutdowns made that even worse. Thanks for the write ups everyone, but I'm just going to continuously vote for our goalie prospects until they are on the list.
Oberyn
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The most recent example I can think of is Conor Timmins who missed the entire 2018-2019 season due to a concussion. The following year he had good numbers in the AHL before making the Avs and looks like a serviceable defenseman in the NHL with top 4 potential. As you said, every case will be different depending on the player so I'm curious to see how Perunovich does compared to Timmins.
Robb_K
Registered User
I chose Simon Robertsson. But, I could have chosen Bolduc, or Neighbours. I'm still not sold on Perunovich standing up to the physical game of forwards on the forecheck, and being able to defend well. I think he'll be an offensive only defenceman, and that's not a great fit in Berube's 2-way 200ft game.
Kostin will be lucky to score on his career what Tkachukscored in his best season.
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Celtic Note
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