Blue Jays Discussion: Spring training begins today!

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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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or, say, Cliff Lee.

+1. Cliff Lee would be a solid one year guy, but of course a SP would have to be traded then. Stroman, Happ, Dickey, Estrada, Hutchison, Chavez and maybe Sanchez plus Lee.

Trade Dickey + Thole + whatever for a better backup catcher + other pieces.

Stroman
Lee
Estrada
Happ
Chavez/Hutchison

LR: Chavez/Hutchison
MR: Sanchez
MR: Loup/Competition spot
MR: Competition spot
SU: Storen
SU: Cecil
CL: Osuna
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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Top 10 stolen base leaders

Dee Gordon - 4 home runs
Billy Hamilton - 4 home runs
AJ Pollock - 20 home runs
Charlie Blackmon - 17 home runs
Jose Altuve - 18 home runs
Ben Revere - 1 home run
Starling Marte - 19 home runs
Lorenzo Cain - 16 home runs
Gregory Polanco - 9 home runs
Billy Burns - 5 home runs


7 out of the top 10 were lead off hitters . Only 2 of those lead off hitters had more than 15 home runs. Obviously , lead off hitters contribute more than that but my point is that your lead off guys aren't usually going to be guys who hit over 20 home runs every year but contribute in other ways and usually are pretty quick

Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve were literally the only two above average leadoff hitters that you listed. Polanco, Revere, Hamilton, despite their speed were not effective offensively (even including Revere's good stretch in September).
 

Discoverer

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+1. Cliff Lee would be a solid one year guy, but of course a SP would have to be traded then. Stroman, Happ, Dickey, Estrada, Hutchison, Chavez and maybe Sanchez plus Lee.

Trade Dickey + Thole + whatever for a better backup catcher + other pieces.

Stroman
Lee
Estrada
Happ
Chavez/Hutchison

LR: Chavez/Hutchison
MR: Sanchez
MR: Loup/Competition spot
MR: Competition spot
SU: Storen
SU: Cecil
CL: Osuna

If money's a factor, then sure. If the money works, though, everything fits beautifully. Lee takes a rotation spot, Hutch starts the year in Buffalo, Chavez is the long man, Sanchez is either in the pen or starting in Buffalo. You improve t front end with Lee, the back end by moving everyone down a notch, the depth by having Hutch/Chavez/Sanchez as the 6/7/8 options, and the pen by allowing Chavez and Sanchez to start the year there.

If trading Dickey could allow them to sign Lee... ugh. That's a tough call. The potential upside is huge, but the downside is just as big. Dickey isn't an ace, but there's value in his durability that Lee just doesn't provide.
 

LaCarriere

Registered User
You can't compare what other leadoff hitters have done in their respective positions and apply it here in my opinion. This is an unconventional lineup in terms of the offense depth 1-7. You don't 'need' a stolen base threat with the high percentage of being hit in. Speed is very useful ofcourse. Stolen bases, in this lineup, not really needed unless you're the 7th/8th guy. Just stay on base, let the big bats do their work. Which is why we saw Revere go so long without even an attempt. In some cases, it's counter productive.

Exactly. It doesn't matter how many power bats who don't steal have lead-off on other teams, because not very many teams have a lineup as unique as the Jays do.

When you have as much power as the Jays do, you want guys who get on base the most to get the most at bats for the 2-5 hitters, because getting on base eventually equates to more runs scored.

As we saw with Revere, he didn't steal a whole lot on the Jays, and the only logical reason that he had 24 steals in Philly and just 7 in Toronto (nearly 4x as many steals in just 2x the months) is because Gibbons didn't want him running with 3 huge bats in Donaldson, Bautista and EE behind him.

I think a lot of people advocating for Tulo to lead off (last year and this) are hoping he returns a lot closer to his career norms, as opposed to the struggling Tulo that we saw pretty much for the entire 2015 he was in Toronto. If that's a case his career .369 OBP and .877 OPS make him a pretty good leadoff hitter - because it seems Toronto isn't going to utilize a speedy leadoff guy to the fullest with all that power following anyway. If he continues to struggle in 2016 posting numbers similar to his 2015 Jay numbers, then you eventually have to put somebody with a higher OBP in that position though.

If he's not struggling for an extended period he's a good leadoff guy on this team, but you have to assume Revere was given that position last year because of Tulo's injury and struggles.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Batting 1st last year for us:

Tulo: 126pa, 25 runs
Revere: 153pa, 18 runs (plyff: 51pa, 7 runs)

what are we arguing about here?
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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Batting 1st last year for us:

Tulo: 126pa, 25 runs
Revere: 153pa, 18 runs (plyff: 51pa, 7 runs)

what are we arguing about here?

at the core of it, apparently the significance/value of average vs OBP and the traditionalism of having a scrappy speed guy at the top regardless of overall talent level.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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hitz. Gotta smack them singlez, bro.:sarcasm:

There's a really interesting overlap between the people who like to point out that singles are more valuable than walks and those who want a singles hitter like Revere hitting leadoff. I mean... the main difference between singles and walks is the ability to advance runners extra bases with singles. So... why do we care whether the leadoff hitter is getting singles or walks?
 

JS19

Legends Never Die
Aug 14, 2009
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How many power bats who don't steal that you know of who leads off?

The whole point about what I said was getting at people who think there is only one cookie cutter typical lead-off and anything else (like Tulo, or otherwise) is not a good type to lead-off just because it doesn't fit the conventional cookie cutter.

+1. Cliff Lee would be a solid one year guy, but of course a SP would have to be traded then. Stroman, Happ, Dickey, Estrada, Hutchison, Chavez and maybe Sanchez plus Lee.

Trade Dickey + Thole + whatever for a better backup catcher + other pieces.

Stroman
Lee
Estrada
Happ
Chavez/Hutchison

LR: Chavez/Hutchison
MR: Sanchez
MR: Loup/Competition spot
MR: Competition spot
SU: Storen
SU: Cecil
CL: Osuna

That's a lot of confidence for a guy who hasn't played since 2014. Plus you'd have to consider his age too as a fastball pitcher.
 
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Kurtz

Registered User
Jul 17, 2005
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Still a few interesting relievers on the market. I think we need to get one of them if we're giving Sanchez a starting role.

Tyler Clippard
Tommy Hunter
Blaine Boyer
Bobby Parnell (reclamation project)
Ryan Webb (Shapiro connection)
 

Mach85

Registered User
Mar 14, 2013
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Still a few interesting relievers on the market. I think we need to get one of them if we're giving Sanchez a starting role.

Tyler Clippard
Tommy Hunter
Blaine Boyer
Bobby Parnell (reclamation project)
Ryan Webb (Shapiro connection)

I'd like to look into this as well. Transitioning Osuna back into the rotation, at least until he nears his innings limit, would be my preference, and this would allow us to do that.

Clippard didn't look the greatest last year, and he's a fly ball pitcher, but he also generates a lot of popups. I wonder what his ask is.
 

Discoverer

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That's a lot of confidence for a guy who hasn't played since 2014. Plus you'd have to consider his age too as a fastball pitcher.

There's a lot of risk, obviously, but the confidence is based on his upside, which would be as high as anyone in the rotation.

What do you mean by "fastball pitcher"? He uses his fastball with below league-average frequency and, even at it's peak, he had below average velocity.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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I'd like to look into this as well. Transitioning Osuna back into the rotation, at least until he nears his innings limit, would be my preference, and this would allow us to do that.

Clippard didn't look the greatest last year, and he's a fly ball pitcher, but he also generates a lot of popups. I wonder what his ask is.

I'm a little worried about Clippard. His velo has declined four straight seasons now. He's also thrown his fastball less and less. When he's at his best, it's fastball-changeup, and if the fastball is deteriorating, then there's cause for concern.

I'd still love to have him on a short term commitment. He was my favorite Nats reliever over the last few years. Trouble is, he's likely looking for a raise over the $8.3M he made last year, which is why he remains unsigned methinks.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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There's a lot of risk, obviously, but the confidence is based on his upside, which would be as high as anyone in the rotation.

What do you mean by "fastball pitcher"? He uses his fastball with below league-average frequency and, even at it's peak, he had below average velocity.

"Fastball" as in four seam, two seam, cutter, which he throws 70-75% of the time over his career. I disagree as well, but that's what I assume he means.
 

LaCarriere

Registered User
Still a few interesting relievers on the market. I think we need to get one of them if we're giving Sanchez a starting role.

Tyler Clippard
Tommy Hunter
Blaine Boyer
Bobby Parnell (reclamation project)
Ryan Webb (Shapiro connection)

Between Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Chavez and Hutch I don't see Sanchez or Osuna getting regular starts or where they fit into the rotation on the MLB roster. Not sure why so many people think this is something that's going to be happening.
 

Mach85

Registered User
Mar 14, 2013
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Between Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Chavez and Hutch I don't see Sanchez or Osuna getting regular starts or where they fit into the rotation on the MLB roster. Not sure why so many people think this is something that's going to be happening.

The idea is if Dickey is traded and Chavez is the long man/rotation depth. The longer a pitcher stays in the bullpen the less likely he is to transition into a starter, so Osuna and Sanchez getting a shot to start either in Buffalo or Toronto isn't a bad idea if the roster configuration allows it.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Between Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Chavez and Hutch I don't see Sanchez or Osuna getting regular starts or where they fit into the rotation on the MLB roster. Not sure why so many people think this is something that's going to be happening.

If Sanchez earns a spot, it's not unreasonable to start the year with Hutchison in Buffalo and Chavez in the pen.

I still think Hutchison will be a really valuable pitcher this year, but it wouldn't be crazy to think they want him to start in the minors and make some adjustments after the way 2015 went for him.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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"Fastball" as in four seam, two seam, cutter, which he throws 70-75% of the time over his career. I disagree as well, but that's what I assume he means.

Maybe... good point. I definitely have to get in the habit of looking beyond FB%.

Either way, without having looked for evidence of this, I feel like his reliance on command rather than velocity will help him age better. If he's lost a couple MPH in the last year or two, that would be a concern. If he's still sitting in the 89-90 range, I don't expect it would be a major issue.
 
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