Sporting News: NHL Farm System Rankings and Team Top-10 Prospects

[Steve Kournianos]

NHL farm system rankings: Best, worst prospect pipelines for 2018-19, from 1 to 31


Top-50 NHL Prospects gets released tomorrow.

All prospects must be Calder-eligible to be considered. Tried to be fair with AHL-proven kids. Also, draft position means nothing, as what teams thought of a prospect sometimes differs from what I think (Tolvanen, Chychrun, Veleno, etc.).

Team draft history success/failure did not play a part in this. I obviously played favorites with prospects I've been following since 2014, and my pre-draft rankings from the year's 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 played a role as well.

There also are examples of short sample sizes of AHL or NHL success trumping gaudy junior numbers. That's one of the reasons why Klim Kostin is ranked ahead of Jordan Kyrou.

Lastly, there are examples of unproven kids who I think very highly of (Adam Fox for one) who were low on his team ranking because Carolina has AHL-proven talent from the same age group (Saarela, Kuokkanen).

Click to read more...

 

[Dominance]

Immediately, Farabee being the top ranked Flyers prospect, ahead of Hart, Myers, and Frost, seems absurd and a departure from the logic you explained in the OP.

Great read, though.

 

[BrettHullsToe]

Projecting Heiskanen to be back at HIFK for '18-'19 is silly - he'll either be in the NHL or AHL next season.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Immediately, Farabee being the top ranked Flyers prospect, ahead of Hart, Myers, and Frost, seems absurd and a departure from the logic you explained in the OP.

Great read, though.

Steve had Farabee as a top 10 prospect in the draft. Its not an unreasonable ranking at all.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Steve had Farabee as a top 10 prospect in the draft. Its not an unreasonable ranking at all.

Exactly. This wasn't a prediction of how organization's or fans viewed their prospects. I view Farabee as a superior prospect and has the highest upside among all Flyers' prospects.

Steve Downie once was ranked ahead of Claude Giroux in Flyers' prospect polls.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Projecting Heiskanen to be back at HIFK for '18-'19 is silly - he'll either be in the NHL or AHL next season.

That tweet is from April.

When it's official, it'll change.

 

[CodeE]

I absolutely put the depth of the Islanders prospect pool up there, only Buffalo Carolina and Vancouver are clearly better right now because of the top-end bluechippers (Dahlin + Mitts, Svech + Necas, Pettersson + Hughes).

Wahlstrom + Dobson alone propels us over many of these teams that can't match that.

 

[Goose of Reason]

Can't say I agree with your rankings of the Ducks prospects but I enjoy the other perspective. What makes you have Steel at 5th when Ducks fans almost unanimously see him as our best prospect? Why is Larsson at 10th and Pettersson at 3? Jones still ahead of Comtois after Comtois had a better season than any Jones has had after his draft?

Great read, thanks for doing this Steve.

 

[BrettHullsToe]

That tweet is from April.

When it's official, it'll change.

Then how can you put Dahlin in Buffalo next season since that is no more "official" than Heiskanen in Dallas? In my mind, "projected" means "where you believe the player will play next season" since, no matter what teams may say in the offseason, nothing can be "official" until Game 1.

So, do you honestly believe that Heiskanen, voted as the best defenseman in Liiga last season, won't at least be able to make the AHL roster?

(There have been more recent affirmations of bringing Heiskanen over btw, that tweet is just the top one Google spit out.)

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

As much as I agree with the Blues being top 5 or close to it, this list is...

I mean why would Robert Thomas play in the OHL?

And the Rangers are way too low.

I do appreciate when someone tries this though.

 

[Kevin Musto]

I'm biased, but I really think you're underestimating the Hawks prospect pool. Especially with how low you ranked Mitchell. Also Louis, Dahlstrom and Shea are not top 10 prospects for us. Not even close. You're missing some talent there.

 

[JohnLennon]

Thank you for the content! Leafs pool seems very overrated, Islanders pool seems underrated. Eager to see how things shake out!

 

[S E P H]

I appreciate the work even though I don't agree with everything (such as the Blues that high along with others).

One minor correction is that Avs farm team in the AHL is the Colorado Eagles and not the Rampage anymore.

Another minor correction is that Shvyryov will play for the Eagles.

One other minor correction is Mironov should not even touch the Avs top 10 list anymore.

E: How many days ago did you write this? Seems you missed a lot of information such as Kaut mentioning a million times that he wants to play in the AHL this year.

 

[ProspectsSTC]

"Two-way defender Ryan Merkley"

"Gritty Phil Kessel"

"Offensive dynamo Karl Alzner"

"Socially adept Pierre McGuire"

 

[Thrasymachus]

I absolutely put the depth of the Islanders prospect pool up there, only Buffalo Carolina and Vancouver are clearly better right now because of the top-end bluechippers (Dahlin + Mitts, Svech + Necas, Pettersson + Hughes).

Wahlstrom + Dobson alone propels us over many of these teams that can't match that.

Islander prospect depth is pretty nice, pretty close prospect rankings we have going on right now on the isles main board. Lots of talent at all positions except center. I too disagree with their placement but hey, what can ya do? Clearly the writers arent as high on our crew. Their top 10 ranking tellingly omits a few big names

 

[CodeE]

Islander prospect depth is pretty nice, pretty close prospect rankings we have going on right now on the isles main board. Lots of talent at all positions except center. I too disagree with their placement but hey, what can ya do? Clearly the writers arent as high on our crew. Their top 10 ranking tellingly omits a few big names

There's other teams around us - Philly, Florida, St. Louis, Detroit - where I personally prefer the Islanders but can see how someone else would prefer these cabinets.

But like Tampa Bay? I don't trade Dobson + Wahlstrom for their entire top 10.

 

[Rick C137]

Was wondering why the hawks were so low but then seeing how they were ranked makes me believe that you haven’t seen very much of them so it makes sense.

Altybarmaykian ahead of Jokiharju, Beaudin, AND Mitchell? Anthony Louis is somehow on there when he’s not anywhere near a Hawks top 10 prospect but no mention of Soderlund? Lucas Carlson diddnt make the list either? Is it just lack of exposure for Swedish prospects or what? I’d like to hear some of the logic behind how you ranked these Blackhawks players.

 

[newfy]

Just looking at those lists, I think I would take detroits top 2 of Zadina/Rasmussen over the Rangers, Lightning or floridas top 2 prospects even though theyre directly in front of Detroit. I dont think Detroit is top heavy either.

If Anthony Cirellis your top prospect, you likely shouldnt be 7th in a prospect ranking. I would likely take Rasmussen over him and thats not even including Zadina in the picture

 

[57special]

I see that you have Justin Kloos rated higher than most Wild fans. Hope you're right. He has a history of scoring everywhere he goes, but I have my doubts as to whether he can transfer his skills to the NHL level. I feel far better about Belpedio's chances of making the NHL in the next year or so, who you have rated below him.
I'm also guessing that most MN fans would rate Sokolov above Kloos, but he is a wild card.
Who knows about Johansson, or even who is the best Johansson?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Immediately, Farabee being the top ranked Flyers prospect, ahead of Hart, Myers, and Frost, seems absurd and a departure from the logic you explained in the OP.

Great read, though.

Yeeeahhh, I had some issues with Detroit's top 10 too. I really like the Veleno pick, but I can't get with having him as #2 in Detroit's pool. Rasmussen and Hronek at the least are higher. Cholowski (Who's ranked #10) is likely higher too. Berggren has a higher ceiling.

 

[CallMeShaft]

As a Hawks fan, I'm not sure I'd have any of Altybarmakyan, Dahlstrom, Louis, or Shea in my top 10. Soderlund, Carlsson, Krys, Ejdsell, and possibly a few others would certainly be better suited for a top 10 list.

Altybarmakyan isn't even close to guys like Jokiharju, Mitchell, Beaudin, or Wise right now.

 

[super6646]

Flames at 21? I would have them around 10-15, but whatever. They still talk up our prospects a lot, so I'm still happy

 

[FlyTimmo]

I appreciated the time you put into this. My only major gripe with the Flyers is... Why do you have Vecchione 8th in the Flyers list? He is 25 and has limited NHL upside. If he makes it, it will likely be as a 4th liner. Putting him above Ratcliffe and Allison seems poorly researched.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Can't say I agree with your rankings of the Ducks prospects but I enjoy the other perspective. What makes you have Steel at 5th when Ducks fans almost unanimously see him as our best prospect? Why is Larsson at 10th and Pettersson at 3? Jones still ahead of Comtois after Comtois had a better season than any Jones has had after his draft?

Great read, thanks for doing this Steve.

Thanks.

Steel up to this point is CHL point compiler. A very good one at that, and I always have been high on him. But Terry is closer to the NHL and more ready to make an impact. Lundestrom has been playing well against men the last two years and proved to be too good for the Superelit at an early age. Mahura is a personal favorite of mine -- dominant during the MC run and WHL playoffs.

Pettersson has the inside track of being an NHL regular. Don't see Larsson passing him, especially with Montour, Mason, Lindholm and Fowler already there. It was a case of NHL time and production trumping AHL time and production.

And Jones is a gamble ranking. I still think he has the potential to be a special talent if he can somehow find a way to get it all together. Maybe it's bias, as Comtois was more of a letdown in his draft year, whereas Jones had periods of dominance (ask Jakob Chychrun lol). I'm still leery of Comtois' speed compared to Jones.

In the end, it's such a strong pool that the rankings are too close to the point where there's a definitive answer. Stats-wise, sure, I can see Steel and Comtois being favorites. But like I said in the opening, there was a lot of bias in terms of what I once thought of some kids.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Why do you have Vecchione 8th in the Flyers list? He is 25 and has limited NHL upside. If he makes it, it will likely be as a 4th liner. Putting him above Ratcliffe and Allison seems poorly researched.

The research is watching games. Vecchione at this point is closer to making an impact than either player you mentioned. Long-term upside doesn't always trump immediate NHL readiness when it comes to some rankings.

Read the opening post -- AHL production in some cases trumped CHL or NCAA production. Besides, there were periods where Vecchione was LV's best player and he dominated several games that I watched. Not easy to do as a first-year player regardless of age.