Sporting News: NHL Farm System Rankings and Team Top-10 Prospects

[Steve Kournianos]

Flames at 21? I would have them around 10-15, but whatever. They still talk up our prospects a lot, so I'm still happy

Trading Fox and not having high picks this last draft impacted the ranking. Still like their pool and I think the players they drafted in later rounds in 2018 have high upside for being late picks. I also like their AHL-proven talent. But essential losing three high-end prospects (Fox, 2018 1st and 2nd) was the reason behind the low-ish ranking.

 

[super6646]

Trading Fox and not having high picks this last draft impacted the ranking. Still like their pool and I think the players they drafted in later rounds in 2018 have high upside for being late picks. I also like their AHL-proven talent. But essential losing three high-end prospects (Fox, 2018 1st and 2nd) was the reason behind the low-ish ranking.

Can see this as an argument for sure. Losing your 2nd best RD prospect and possibly Wahlstrom really didn't help things. Treliving has done pretty good at drafting prospects; as long as he doesn't continue to trade our picks like candy, we should be fine in this regard.

 

[WhatWhat]

That tweet is from April.

When it's official, it'll change.

So then why is Dahlin projected on Buffalo...? After all nothing is official yet

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Just looking at those lists, I think I would take detroits top 2 of Zadina/Rasmussen over the Rangers, Lightning or floridas top 2 prospects even though theyre directly in front of Detroit. I dont think Detroit is top heavy either.

If Anthony Cirellis your top prospect, you likely shouldnt be 7th in a prospect ranking. I would likely take Rasmussen over him and thats not even including Zadina in the picture

Tampa's AHL team probably beats the Red Wings this season. And almost all of their best players are 2014 draftees or younger.

Hyperbole aside, Tampa was rewarded for turning 2nd and 3rd-round picks into a dominant AHL team.

Collectively, proven AHL or NHL production, even in small sample sizes, will trump gaudy junior stats and is a slightly better predictor of success. Long term, the Red Wings have more star potential. But the unknown keeps Tampa ahead of them.

 

[FlyTimmo]

The research is watching games. Vecchione at this point is closer to making an impact than either player you mentioned. Long-term upside doesn't always trump immediate NHL readiness when it comes to some rankings.

Read the opening post -- AHL production in some cases trumped CHL or NCAA production. Besides, there were periods where Vecchione was LV's best player and he dominated several games that I watched. Not easy to do as a first-year player regardless of age.

He is competing with a long list of players for ultimately a small handful of NHL positions. At his age and with his somewhat limited toolbox, I don't see him progressing past the 4th line. Vecchione is a fine player, and I prefer him to guys like Lehtera, Leier, and Weise. But, with the large pool of players coming, limited upside players like him only hold so much value. Allison and Ratlciffe, while they might be further away and might have a lower floor, they do have undoubtably higher upside, which should hold more value to this team than guys like Vecchione.

 

[wasup]

This is a poor job of rating Flyers prospects , you need to go to there HF Flyers prospects board and get a little educated . You talked Vec and playing AHL trumping Rat and Allison but you give Farabee playing junior top billing . Rubtsov we are still trying to figure out whether he is a bust or not and you have him like 6th or 7th . Hart Frost Myers first teir Farabee O.Beien Allison Ratcliffe second teir then next teir Morin Rubtsov Vorobev Laczynski

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Was wondering why the hawks were so low but then seeing how they were ranked makes me believe that you haven’t seen very much of them so it makes sense.

Altybarmaykian ahead of Jokiharju, Beaudin, AND Mitchell? Anthony Louis is somehow on there when he’s not anywhere near a Hawks top 10 prospect but no mention of Soderlund? Lucas Carlson diddnt make the list either? Is it just lack of exposure for Swedish prospects or what? I’d like to hear some of the logic behind how you ranked these Blackhawks players.

I've been a fan of his for a long time. Thing about Altybarmakyan is he's always one of two of his team's best forwards every game. The KHL numbers (as we all know) are skewed. He has top-6 potential.

1. Boqvist -- franchise potential
2. Sikura -- most NHL ready forward ad will challange for top-9 role in NHL this season.
3. Altybarmaykian -- most pure skill of any Hawks forward prospect. Dynamic ability.
4. Jokiharju -- Two straight horrid postseasons getting pushed around impacted ranking.
5. Wise -- best center prospect in the organization. Riser.
6. Mitchell -- one of NCAA's best two-way defensemen as a freshman. May end up better than Jokiharju.
7. Beaudin -- May turn out to be the best after Boqvist but cautious of QMJHL stats.
8. Dahlstrom -- Rockford's best defenseman last year and immediate candidate for NHL pairing
9. Louis -- Led AHL team in scoring in first full season.
10. Shea -- Top-four potential. Speed, hard shot, agility, and superior defender to Carlsson and Krys.

Soderlund was 11th. Fast and two-way type. Don't know if he's going to put up points in the NHL, so I put the guys with higher upside ahead of him.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

This is a poor job of rating Flyers prospects , you need to go to there HF Flyers prospects board and get a little educated . You talked Vec and playing AHL trumping Rat and Allison but you give Farabee playing junior top billing . Rubtsov we are still trying to figure out whether he is a bust or not and you have him like 6th or 7th . Hart Frost Myers first teir Farabee O.Beien Allison Ratcliffe second teir then next teir Morin Rubtsov Vorobev Laczynski

I'm sorry you feel that way.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

He is competing with a long list of players for ultimately a small handful of NHL positions. At his age and with his somewhat limited toolbox, I don't see him progressing past the 4th line. Vecchione is a fine player, and I prefer him to guys like Lehtera, Leier, and Weise. But, with the large pool of players coming, limited upside players like him only hold so much value. Allison and Ratlciffe, while they might be further away and might have a lower floor, they do have undoubtably higher upside, which should hold more value to this team than guys like Vecchione.

True but this list wasn't only about NHL upside for the Flyers. It was a mix of things, with AHL production within the context of age and experience being one of them.

There's no reason to think Vecchione can't go elsewhere and be a top-six player.

Basically, there's less for Vecchione to prove than Ratcliffe or Allison. Vecchione's leaped over the AHL hurdle that trips up the majority of prospects.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

As much as I agree with the Blues being top 5 or close to it, this list is...

I mean why would Robert Thomas play in the OHL?

And the Rangers are way too low.

I do appreciate when someone tries this though.

Being cautious about Thomas after all the moves the Blues made. I can see him making the team out of camp and he's NHL ready, but still not sure if they are committed to playing him a full season.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Okay ranking I’d say. Wings could be a few positions higher, looks like it comes down to VASTLY underrating Cholowski (him behind Larsson, Svech and Lindstrom is laughable).

 

[truthbluth]

NHL farm system rankings: Best, worst prospect pipelines for 2018-19, from 1 to 31


Top-50 NHL Prospects gets released tomorrow.

All prospects must be Calder-eligible to be considered. Tried to be fair with AHL-proven kids. Also, draft position means nothing, as what teams thought of a prospect sometimes differs from what I think (Tolvanen, Chychrun, Veleno, etc.).

Team draft history success/failure did not play a part in this. I obviously played favorites with prospects I've been following since 2014, and my pre-draft rankings from the year's 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 played a role as well.

There also are examples of short sample sizes of AHL or NHL success trumping gaudy junior numbers. That's one of the reasons why Klim Kostin is ranked ahead of Jordan Kyrou.

Lastly, there are examples of unproven kids who I think very highly of (Adam Fox for one) who were low on his team ranking because Carolina has AHL-proven talent from the same age group (Saarela, Kuokkanen).

Great job Steve, as always. The Sabres, I'm guessing, will plummet in this ranking around Thanksgiving, when anywhere from 3-6 of your top ten will graduate. Probably not 6, but I'd guess that one of Nylander, Asplund, or Olofsson (in addition to Guhle, Dahlin and Mittelstadt) graduates by Jan 1.

 

[stl76]

I'm sorry you feel that way.

Smiled reading this after the snarky tone of the post it was responding to.

Don't always agree with you rankings, but appreciate the work that goes into them AND that you take the time to defend your decisions to posters here.

 

[FlyTimmo]

True but this list wasn't only about NHL upside for the Flyers. It was a mix of things, with AHL production within the context of age and experience being one of them.

There's no reason to think Vecchione can't go elsewhere and be a top-six player.

Basically, there's less for Vecchione to prove than Ratcliffe or Allison. Vecchione's leaped over the AHL hurdle that trips up the majority of prospects.

Fair enough, and I do appreciate that you take your time to answer this questions.

I hope you are right and he can become a top-6er here or somewhere else. That would be awesome, but I don't see it. But, one thing I don't understand then is why Vecchione isn't higher than Rusbtov then. Unlike Allison and Ratcliffe, Rubstov has been disappointing since being drafted. And still doesn't hasn't crossed that professional barrier yet either. I feel there is a bit of inconsistency here.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Okay ranking I’d say. Wings could be a few positions higher, looks like it comes down to VASTLY underrating Cholowski (him behind Larsson, Svech and Lindstrom is laughable).

Never liked Cholowski. Only reason I hope it works out is because I know how much it sucks to pass on a better player.

Kid can't defend, as in his IQ shrinks on his side of the blue line.

He got lucky Zadina fell.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Never liked Cholowski. Only reason I hope it works out is because I know how much it sucks to pass on a better player.

Kid can't defend, as in his IQ shrinks on his side of the blue line.

He got lucky Zadina fell.

Fair enough, we’ll see how accurate that assessment is soon enough. I strongly disagree, and sounds like his junior coach does too:

"But I didn't realize how good he was. He's a better player than I even though the was. He's very good defensively and I compare him to (Columbus Blue Jackets defenceman) Seth Jones, who we had several years ago. Seth never ran over you physically, but he was strong, he used his body well, he had a good stick defensively, and then when he got the puck his transition pass or skating was really good and I think Dennis is a lot like that. He's a better defensive player than I thought."

 

[Tripod]

@Steve Kournianos Not to turn this into just Flyers talk, but who did you have 11-15 for them?

And thanks for the #2 ranking!

 

[Mrb1p]

Good job.

Dont like Tampas ranking at all. I get that Tampa has a great farm system and all but theres not that much quality overall and no one projects as impact players in there, they are too high.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Fair enough, we’ll see how accurate that assessment is soon enough. I strongly disagree, and sounds like his junior coach does too:

Well, let's be honest here. It's his own junior coach going on the record. What's he going to say? "Dennis was a pylon in the playoffs and was our worst defenseman in the Everett series!"?

I get coach assessments sent to me all the time about their own players. I care more about what other coaches think about an opponent.

I can tell you without a doubt that Cholowski's postseason had a lot to do with the low ranking.

 

[DANOZ28]

wild fan here, while i think you could have ranked us a smidge higher im ok. i dont understand why mcbain is #4 and not sokolov? after scoring 48&50G in the ohl? mcbain maybe was the hardest working player at camp however sokolov was the most talented. i would replace kloos & svetiakov with newcomers s johanson or khovanov or goalie prospect khakonan (?spelling).

 

[newfy]

Tampa's AHL team probably beats the Red Wings this season. And almost all of their best players are 2014 draftees or younger.

Hyperbole aside, Tampa was rewarded for turning 2nd and 3rd-round picks into a dominant AHL team.

Collectively, proven AHL or NHL production, even in small sample sizes, will trump gaudy junior stats and is a slightly better predictor of success. Long term, the Red Wings have more star potential. But the unknown keeps Tampa ahead of them.

The Red wings have had a great AHL team for the last 5 years, so your first point isnt that impressive if it even happens. Detroit did the same thing with recently ranked in the 200s of his draft Tyler Bertuzzi winning calder cup MVP.

And sorry but Anthony Cirellis production in the CHL and AHL to this point just shows he shouldnt be ranked close to Zadina at this point. He had a hot 18 NHL games but has literally never been a very high end prospect. 37 AHL points doesnt trump the season Zadina had at all, thats not how projecting prospects works. Its like calling Joe Hicketts a better prospect than Cal Foote because he has some decent AHL/NHL games to his name, not how it works

 

[AmericanDream]

not an easy job to make a top 10 list for all the teams and then stand by and defend the selections. I appreciate these lists but no way they will all be perfect, but Steve has always seen things a bit differently than others..I think it is a good read and a lot of time and effort went into this, so thanks and though I don't agree with a lot of the Hawks rankings, you do back them up with your opinions.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

The Red wings have had a great AHL team for the last 5 years, so your first point isnt that impressive if it even happens. Detroit did the same thing with recently ranked in the 200s of his draft Tyler Bertuzzi winning calder cup MVP.

And sorry but Anthony Cirellis production in the CHL and AHL to this point just shows he shouldnt be ranked close to Zadina at this point. He had a hot 18 NHL games but has literally never been a very high end prospect. 37 AHL points doesnt trump the season Zadina had at all, thats not how projecting prospects works. Its like calling Joe Hicketts a better prospect than Cal Foote because he has some decent AHL/NHL games to his name, not how it works

Zadina is ranked higher than Cirelli. Individually.

I ranked overall pools. Thought the title of the post was self explanatory.

I'm sorry you're upset at your team being ranked lower than you would have liked. I'm sure there are several rankings that will make you happy.

 

[Frk It]

Never liked Cholowski. Only reason I hope it works out is because I know how much it sucks to pass on a better player.

Kid can't defend, as in his IQ shrinks on his side of the blue line.

He got lucky Zadina fell.

He was not my preferred pick that year (Clague was), but Cholowski has grown on me over the last year. Really good skater and I think he is pretty well rounded now after putting on a lot of weight.

I’m just surprised you like McIsaac if you don’t like Cholowski. I find him much more erratic and when he’s having an off game he makes some really bad reads.

 

[newfy]

Zadina is ranked higher than Cirelli. Individually.

I ranked overall pools. Thought the title of the post was self explanatory.

I'm sorry you're upset at your team being ranked lower than you would have liked. I'm sure there are several rankings that will make you happy.

I know its not an indivdual ranking, its just that Cirelli isnt really close at all to Zadina as a prospect, is likely noticeably behind Rasmussen as well. I'm not saying its just Detroit, its just the team I'm most familiar with, I could say the same about a few teams behind Tampa as well. No blue chip, top 5 type prospects, and no real high end forwards at all.

Tampa just shouldnt be ranked that high when Cirelli is their top prospect, I doubt he gets ranked in a top 50 prospect ranking. And really, I would love to hear the logic behind ranking him over Foote. Tampa is a good development team and thats a solid pool but its not 7th best in the league. They literally only have one first round pick (a mid first who is a solid prospect) in their entire top 10 prospects

 

[Steve Kournianos]

He was not my preferred pick that year (Clague was), but Cholowski has grown on me over the last year. Really good skater and I think he is pretty well rounded now after putting on a lot of weight.

I’m just surprised you like McIsaac if you don’t like Cholowski. I find him much more erratic and when he’s having an off game he makes some really bad reads.

But that's the exception with MacIsaac. He's very steady and a calming presence under pressure. Rarely do you see him float too far from the slot.

I like his versatility. No issues seeing him on the ice late in games or matching up against a top line. Cholowski is a puck rusher and playmaker. Not a bad one either. Just think his bust potential is higher.