Spin-Off Semin Discussion (from draft thread)

[StormCast]

No, Semin is not far off from Bergeron without the puck.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ers&minutes=2000&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Oh please. Watch each without the puck in isolation, and then try make that argument. They're not close and when you factor in the harder D responsibilities of a C, it becomes an even bigger gap.

Or if you insist, use your beloved stats, just for Semin's time as a Hurricane (not over the last 6 years where Caps' stats skew in Semin's favor). Massive gap, just as the eye test demonstrates.

Besides, with these great skills playing without the puck, why doesn't Semin play the PK or a checking line when he's not scoring? Perhaps those silly coaches haven't seen the numbers over the last 6 years.

 

[bleedgreen]

Bergeron and semin compared.


How you know when stat analysis has gone too far....

 

[Navin R Slavin]

His shooting % was never below 14% when he shot 11.5% in 11-12. Then never below 11.5% until he shot 8.7% in 12-13. And never below 8.7% in 12-13 until he shot 6.5% in 14-15.

New career lows happen when you are in decline. There's no reason that any of the seasons have to be 'the fluke.'

Hopefully, it is his wrist, and that's fixable, and we see a bounce back, but what he did 4 years ago is pretty irrelevant now, I'd say. He's not that guy anymore.

Wally wins the thread.

Your prize: a bo berry biscuit at bonjagles. Just tell them when you order that you are the winner of the declining semin count competition.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Bergeron and semin compared.


How you know when stat analysis has gone too far....

Yeaaah... as much as I like Semin, I would not go down that road.

And BLB, a minor wrist injury impacts a lot of small things that can add up, but no professional hockey player is going to say "I can't play, my wrist hurts"

 

[nobuddy]

Oh please. Watch each without the puck in isolation, and then try make that argument. They're not close and when you factor in the harder D responsibilities of a C, it becomes an even bigger gap.

Or if you insist, use your beloved stats, just for Semin's time as a Hurricane (not over the last 6 years where Caps' stats skew in Semin's favor). Massive gap, just as the eye test demonstrates.

Besides, with these great skills playing without the puck, why doesn't Semin play the PK or a checking line when he's not scoring? Perhaps those silly coaches haven't seen the numbers over the last 6 years.

Lol, talk about circumstances skewing stats in someone's favor?

You mean like Bergeron spending 50% of his ice time with a guy who was the best defensive defenseman in the world over that stretch?

Bergeron's 4 most common defensemen teammates: Chara, Seidenberg, Boychuk, Ference
Semin's 4 most common defensemen teammates: Jeff Schultz, John Carlson, Mike Green, Karl Alzner

Bergeron's 2 most common goalies w/ sv% behind him: Tuukka Rask, Tim Thomas (.931)
Semin's 2 most common goalies w/sv% behind him: Michal Neuvirth, Tomas Vokoun (.930)

in these time frames, those Bruins' 4 were all in their prime. Carlson and Alzner weren't nearly what they are now when Semin was a cap. Schultz was horrendous, and Mike Green has never been what one would call "good" defensively

IF you believe in a player impacting their goalies SV%, you tell me which is more impressive:

a) Semin somehow getting .930 goaltending with young/awful defensemen and mediocre goalies
b) Bergeron getting .931 goaltending with elite defensive defensemen and two of the best goalies in the world in that stretch

Semin's shot suppression numbers from his Washington days aren't any good anyway because of Boudreau's wide open system. Don't believe that? This season Anaheim has exactly 0 of their forwards in the top 70 in SA/60. Ryan ****ing Kesler ranks 208th in the league amongst forwards with at least 500 minutes in SA/60.

Bergeron has had the benefit of always playing in Julien's tight system with Big Z behind him shutting everything down.

This season under Peters, Semin's shot suppression has been excellent. The gap between Bergeron and Semin in shots against per 60 minutes is literally less than one. That's how much of an impact coaching and systems have on shot suppression and corsi numbers

You think Semin doesn't PK? Here are some "two way forwards" that have spent less time PKing than Semin since 2010:

Shane Doan, Dwight King, Justin Williams, Brandon Saad, Kris Versteeg, Clarke MacArthur, Jordan Eberle, Nathan Gerbe, Eric Fehr.

And just to be clear, that's irrelevant. It is utterly irrelevant how many minutes Semin gets on the PK when considering his ability away from the puck. Coaches are imperfect.

None of this is to say that Bergeron isn't excellent. You won't find a bigger fan of his than me, I think he's the best two way forward in the world. I just don't think Semin is that far behind him in terms of playing away from the puck, and over a HUGE sample size Semin has a better GF% despite playing with worse defensive teammates and playing in front of worse goalies.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Good post. If you've got the time, is there a way to see how much Semin/Bergeron improve the numbers of those defenseman (and maybe goalies)? As in, how do they fare with lesser forwards on the ice?

 

[StormCast]

Lol, talk about circumstances skewing stats in someone's favor?

You mean like Bergeron spending 50% of his ice time with a guy who was the best defensive defenseman in the world over that stretch?

Bergeron's 4 most common defensemen teammates: Chara, Seidenberg, Boychuk, Ference
Semin's 4 most common defensemen teammates: Jeff Schultz, John Carlson, Mike Green, Karl Alzner

Bergeron's 2 most common goalies w/ sv% behind him: Tuukka Rask, Tim Thomas (.931)
Semin's 2 most common goalies w/sv% behind him: Michal Neuvirth, Tomas Vokoun (.930)

in these time frames, those Bruins' 4 were all in their prime. Carlson and Alzner weren't nearly what they are now when Semin was a cap. Schultz was horrendous, and Mike Green has never been what one would call "good" defensively

IF you believe in a player impacting their goalies SV%, you tell me which is more impressive:

a) Semin somehow getting .930 goaltending with young/awful defensemen and mediocre goalies
b) Bergeron getting .931 goaltending with elite defensive defensemen and two of the best goalies in the world in that stretch

Semin's shot suppression numbers from his Washington days aren't any good anyway because of Boudreau's wide open system. Don't believe that? This season Anaheim has exactly 0 of their forwards in the top 70 in SA/60. Ryan ****ing Kesler ranks 208th in the league amongst forwards with at least 500 minutes in SA/60.

Bergeron has had the benefit of always playing in Julien's tight system with Big Z behind him shutting everything down.

This season under Peters, Semin's shot suppression has been excellent. The gap between Bergeron and Semin in shots against per 60 minutes is literally less than one. That's how much of an impact coaching and systems have on shot suppression and corsi numbers

You think Semin doesn't PK? Here are some "two way forwards" that have spent less time PKing than Semin since 2010:

Shane Doan, Dwight King, Justin Williams, Brandon Saad, Kris Versteeg, Clarke MacArthur, Jordan Eberle, Nathan Gerbe, Eric Fehr.

And just to be clear, that's irrelevant. It is utterly irrelevant how many minutes Semin gets on the PK when considering his ability away from the puck. Coaches are imperfect.

None of this is to say that Bergeron isn't excellent. You won't find a bigger fan of his than me, I think he's the best two way forward in the world. I just don't think Semin is that far behind him in terms of playing away from the puck, and over a HUGE sample size Semin has a better GF% despite playing with worse defensive teammates and playing in front of worse goalies.

That's a quantity over quality post right there. They simply aren't comparable regardless of what stats you want to sling or relevant info you want to ignore (e.g. coaches are imperfect - I guess that means both this year's and last year's staff all overlooked him). No he doesn't PK currently, which is the relevant time period since the discussion centers on him as a Cane not since 2010. Maybe you should lobby the coaching staff to acknowledge their imperfections and get the elite play-without-the puck Alex Semin in there to fix the PK.

 

[RodTheBawd]

That's a quantity over quality post right there. They simply aren't comparable regardless of what stats you want to sling or relevant info you want to ignore (e.g. coaches are imperfect - I guess that means both this year's and last year's staff all overlooked him). No he doesn't PK currently, which is the relevant time period since the discussion centers on him as a Cane not since 2010. Maybe you should lobby the coaching staff to acknowledge their imperfections and get the elite play-without-the puck Alex Semin in there to fix the PK.

Wait... you think the struggling PK has to do with FORWARDS? Yes, let's put a guy thats been nursing some nagging injuries that we primarily rely on to score (despite failing at it) when we have a solid supply of very good PKing forwards. I like Semin, but having to read dribble like this really makes me look like a bigger fanboy than I am.

 

[Highest Boss]

I really havent read this thread. I also dont want to get anyone in trouble but I know for a fact that Semin's wrist was swollen and bad enough to be at the doctor as recently as December around the time when he was being scratched.

 

[nobuddy]

That's a quantity over quality post right there. They simply aren't comparable regardless of what stats you want to sling or relevant info you want to ignore (e.g. coaches are imperfect - I guess that means both this year's and last year's staff all overlooked him). No he doesn't PK currently, which is the relevant time period since the discussion centers on him as a Cane not since 2010. Maybe you should lobby the coaching staff to acknowledge their imperfections and get the elite play-without-the puck Alex Semin in there to fix the PK.

you've literally made no concrete arguments that show how they aren't comparable. i've made plenty. you can hoo and haw about your eye test all your want, it doesn't mean ****. i don't give one single **** what your eyes tell you. i don't even care what my eyes tell me unless there's a reasonable amount of statistical data to back up what my eyes tell me, and i'm damn sure i watch more hockey than you do.

semin doesn't pk because he's used as a top six forward with pp time.

as rodthebawd pointed out, there's no reason to pk an injured now with dwyer, mcclement, nash, etc. being so effective at it.

muller actually pk'd semin quite a bit.

 

[nobuddy]

Good post. If you've got the time, is there a way to see how much Semin/Bergeron improve the numbers of those defenseman (and maybe goalies)? As in, how do they fare with lesser forwards on the ice?

Last 5 full seasons: (CF% with Semin/Bergeron / CF% without Semin/Bergeron)

Schultz: 54.2 / 49.2
Carlson: 55.9 /48.3
Green: 55.7 / 51.6
Alzner: 53.2 / 47.9
Faulk: 52.3 / 49.5

Chara: 59.3 / 53.6
Boychuk: 60.8 / 52.5
Seidenberg: 57.0 /48.6
Ference: 54.4 / 47.2
McQuaid: 55.8 / 48.7

Pretty much what I would expect and what I have been saying in this thread all along. The impact Bergeron has on his teammates in incredible. So is the impact Semin has on his teammates. Though Bergeron's impact on his teammates is slightly better.

ie: Bergeron is better than Semin away from the puck, but the gap really isn't as large as one may think.

 

[RodTheBawd]

While I don't disagree with you, the gap is still a little larger (stat wise) than you're letting on. Let me take a stab at some stats here:
Offensive Zone start %:
Semin Bergeron
14-15 60.3 45.1
13-14 58.9 46
12-13 57.6 42.4
11-12 51.1 47.6
10-11 55 42.7

(sorry for the ****** formatting)

Is it fair to say, that based on start %, Bergeron's impact on his teammates is more impressive? Widening the gap even more?

 

[StormCast]

Wait... you think the struggling PK has to do with FORWARDS? Yes, let's put a guy thats been nursing some nagging injuries that we primarily rely on to score (despite failing at it) when we have a solid supply of very good PKing forwards. I like Semin, but having to read dribble like this really makes me look like a bigger fanboy than I am.

Sarcasm, Rod, sarcasm.

Semin's primary PK duty is on PK's payroll and he's ineffective there too.

you've literally made no concrete arguments that show how they aren't comparable. i've made plenty. you can hoo and haw about your eye test all your want, it doesn't mean ****. i don't give one single **** what your eyes tell you. i don't even care what my eyes tell me unless there's a reasonable amount of statistical data to back up what my eyes tell me, and i'm damn sure i watch more hockey than you do.

Concrete arguments? Look, you clearly love to defend Semin so in support that position in the absence of actual on-ice performance you stroll down Stats St. to find - lo and behold - that Bergeron and Semin have similar GF% over the last six years and then cite it as some universal truth while ignoring his current tenure with the Canes. Talk about cherry-picking and an overlooking context. Feel free to ignore concrete arguments such as D responsibilities of a C and W and also the fundamental flaw of trying to solely extrapolate individual contributions from such a stat.

You're lost in your numbers but that's ok. And watching a lot of hockey and knowing what you're watching are two different things. Your "poor decisions" comment and misguided assertion about effort and positioning underscore the point. If you don't trust your own eyes without statistical back-up, you aren't doing it right.

On his off nights, Bergeron is still above average without the puck. On his better nights, Semin is above average without the puck. But you don't care about my eye test which is fine by me. I'll stick with what I know and you stick with what you think the stats tell you.

 

[What the Faulk]

Semin's primary PK duty is on PK's payroll and he's ineffective there too.

Okay, this was pretty creative

 

[nobuddy]

Concrete arguments? Look, you clearly love to defend Semin so in support that position in the absence of actual on-ice performance you stroll down Stats St. to find - lo and behold - that Bergeron and Semin have similar GF% over the last six years and then cite it as some universal truth while ignoring his current tenure with the Canes.

In Semin's tenure with the Canes (since that is for some reason the only time period relevant in discussing his hockey sense), he has a better GF% than Stamkos, Tavares, Giroux, Sharp, Kesler, Duchene, Kessel, Marleau, Johansen, and Backstrom. All of whom have had the benefit of playing on playoff teams in that time frame, while Semin hasn't.

Are those guys average away from the puck too?

Talk about cherry-picking and an overlooking context. Feel free to ignore concrete arguments such as D responsibilities of a C and W and also the fundamental flaw of trying to solely extrapolate individual contributions from such a stat.

Defensive responsibilities of a C and a W are different. It's harder to play defense as a C than as a W. I never denied that. I've maintained throughout this entire thread that Bergeron is considerably better than Semin without the puck and that I consider Bergeron the best two way forward in the world.

At the same time, playing defense in Kirk Muller's system is much harder than playing defense in Claude Julien's system. Playing defense in front of the Carolina Hurricanes' defense corps and goaltending is much harder than playing defense in front of the Boston Bruins' defense corps and goaltending.

You're lost in your numbers but that's ok. And watching a lot of hockey and knowing what you're watching are two different things.

I am 19 and am already getting paid to write about hockey. So if I "don't know what I'm watching" whatever, joke's on the people that give me money I guess.

Your "poor decisions" comment and misguided assertion about effort and positioning underscore the point. If you don't trust your own eyes without statistical back-up, you aren't doing it right.

Yes it is "misguided" to say that good positioning alleviates having to use a lot of effort. Yes you are so right. That totally isn't common sense at all.

On his off nights, Bergeron is still above average without the puck.

Yes

On his better nights, Semin is above average without the puck.

Implying that Semin is ever below average without the puck, which is blatantly untrue.

But you don't care about my eye test which is fine by me. I'll stick with what I know and you stick with what you think the stats tell you.

Here's the thing about advanced stats, believe in 'em or don't, I'm gonna be right more often than you are on a regular basis

 

[Ole Gil]

You understand GF% is +/- without EN and SH goals right?

I mentioned this before. "They" don't seem interested in these kinds of things.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Mike Maniscalco gets paid to write about AND talk about hockey.

 

[Ole Gil]

Mike Maniscalco gets paid to write about AND talk about hockey.

Fatality.

 

[wolfofthesteppes]

Mike Maniscalco gets paid to write about AND talk about hockey.

Sens1 drops mic and exits the building.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Been gone most of a week, good to see we are still having the Chad Semin discussions. My concern with Semin is very simple and was what Wally posted..his trend:

09/10: 40G, 0.144 SH%
10/11: 28G, 0.143 SH%
11/12: 21G, 0.115 SH%
12/13: 13G, 0.087 SH% (Strike shortened year)
13/14: 22G, 0.105 SH%
14/15: 6G, 0.065 SH%

Can he bounce back? It wouldn't surprise me if he did as he's got a lot of natural talent and has shown a few spurts, but given the trend, I wouldn't say he should be "expected" to bounce back. Maybe it's his wrist? maybe he's lost confidence and is fighting it? maybe it's a decline? Who knows for sure, but when a guy is 31, a known smoker (I'm assuming he still is), and has a declining trend, it's definitely a concern.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I mentioned this before. "They" don't seem interested in these kinds of things.

I don't follow the advanced stats at all...I have an idea of what Corsi tries to represent. But I've seen this GF% trotted out enough times to recognize it.

And it's a slightly more complicated +/- ? Lol.

But +/- is the WORST STAT EVER !!!

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Mike Maniscalco gets paid to write about AND talk about hockey.

Priceless.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I don't follow the advanced stats at all...I have an idea of what Corsi tries to represent. But I've seen this GF% trotted out enough times to recognize it.

And it's a slightly more complicated +/- ? Lol.

But +/- is the WORST STAT EVER !!!

No one has answered me so I'm assuming my definition is right. Even strength GF vs GA represented in a %. That's +/- (slightly improved to remove ENG) in a form that looks more advanced. If they retro'd Ron Francis' GF% he'd be under 50%. Hell the stat says in the time period referenced that the Sedins are 1 and 2. Does that mean they're in the same league as Bergeron away from the puck too, or better?

The applications of Corsi and fenwick I get. Makes perfect sense to me why those numbers are being used and what merit they have. Trotting out GF% as if that's some kind of major reference is asinine.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Mike Maniscalco gets paid to write about AND talk about hockey.

I really hope he was being ironic, because that's EXACTLY what Mike Maniscalco would say to someone (probably him).

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I really hope he was being ironic, because that's EXACTLY what Mike Maniscalco would say to someone (probably him).

Maybe we need a selfie competition to determine the winner.