Post-Game Talk: Somewhat entertaining at least!

[Frk It]

I definitely agree that you will likely get a better player top 5 than at #20. I just don't think you should go out of your way to draft top 5 by purposely tanking.

If it happens naturally like this year, sure no problem. And once the Wings draft a non franchise saving talent with their top 5 pick this coming draft and become a playoff bubble team again, I'm ok with building from there and not tanking to again get back into the top 5 for multiple years in a row.

I don't believe completely gutting the team and tanking is the right way to build a team.

But we are bad.

What do you think realistically is the best this team could do this season at this point? Even getting the 8 seed is looking like a stretch and a half. And if we do oh boy it would be real fun playing the Penguins for 4 games.

So if you're sitting at the bottom of your conference; yeah why not sell some pieces and take the higher percentage stab in the draft? It seems like the logical move. I can provide you with some data that supports that there is a stark difference between drafting 4th and 8th-15th if you'd like.

 

[Frk It]

Ugh, im not dogging on Tavares and i'm certainly not blaming him. Would obviously love to have him on the team.

People have said numerous times we won't be able to find great players outside of the top 5 to replenish the talent on the team. For those people I'm asking....why would drafting Tavares top 5 and then returning to the playoff bubble with him change anything about our ability to upgrade the rest of the team and return to a championship contender?

Well, I don't think we need to draft top 5 just once for this reason. Most likely. Probably at least another year.

 

[obey86]

Ugh, im not dogging on Tavares and i'm certainly not blaming him. Would obviously love to have him on the team.

People have said numerous times we won't be able to find great players outside of the top 5 to replenish the talent on the team. For those people I'm asking....why would drafting Tavares top 5 and then returning to the playoff bubble with him change anything about our ability to upgrade the rest of the team and return to a championship contender?

But we are bad.

What do you think realistically is the best this team could do this season at this point? Even getting the 8 seed is looking like a stretch and a half. And if we do oh boy it would be real fun playing the Penguins for 4 games.

So if you're sitting at the bottom of your conference; yeah why not sell some pieces and take the higher percentage stab in the draft? It seems like the logical move.

Never said I was against selling some pieces if it looks like the Wings are bad/out of the playoffs like they are now. I'm against completely gutting the team for the sake of being as bad as possible multiple years in a row. There's a huge difference.

 

[obey86]

Well, I don't think we need to draft top 5 just once for this reason. Most likely. Probably at least another year.

And let's say the Wings drafted John Tavares and Zach Bogosian with their two top 5 picks and are back to being an annual playoff bubble team like they have been the past 4-5 seasons (prior to this season) with no chance at top draft picks.

What's your plan at that point?

 

[Frk It]

And let's say the Wings drafted John Tavares and Zach Bogosian with their two top 5 picks and are back to being an annual playoff bubble team like they have been the past 4-5 seasons (prior to this season) with no chance at top draft picks.

What's your plan at that point?

Well I'm not gonna know Bogosian is a disappointment instantly, am I? So hard to say what my plan would be without a crystal ball. The top rated defenseman next year are Ryan Merkley and Rasmus Dahlin, who are pure offensive defenseman. Top rated guy this year is as well. So I'd call your scenario unlikely, but it is possible of course.

Still by far the most probable way to go. Of course there are no guarantees in life. You just have to play the percentages the best you can.

 

[Winger98]

Yes, just good enough to get us back to the playoff bubble and therefore no more chances at top picks/top players. I thought that's what everyone was trying to avoid?

The proof is in the pudding that those guys alone can't impact a team's Stanley Cup chances much. Tavares missed playoffs 5/8 seasons, Hall never made the playoffs, Kessel 1 playoff in Toronto I believe.

Is it somehow better to be annual playoff bubble team with Kessel than it is with Nyquist and Larkin?

So, you don't want these guys because they'll make us better?

We'll leave alone the likelihood that one of these guys, as a rookie, makes us a playoff bubble team. We stand a good chance of drafting high this year, at least as good of a chance as that as making the playoffs. What would you advocate we do? Trade down to minimize the chances of getting better too quickly? Gut the rest of the club to minimize whatever positives a high pick might give?

I'm sorry if this comes off as snide, but I genuinely don't understand what you would want the wings to do at this point, because they aren't a truly horrible, rebuilding organization in the mold of what Toronto, Edmonton, and Buffalo have went through. So a high pick, along with guys like Larkin, Mrazek, and Mantha taking that next step might elevate us from one of the bottom five clubs in the league to somewhere in that 15-25 range that could squeak into the playoffs, or have the wheels fall off and be a lottery team again.

Outside of a HoF level goalie, I'm not sure any one player will elevate any team to a cup contender. So, I'm not sure why I wouldn't want to pick as high as possible and increase our chances at getting a top half of the lineup level player. If we're missing the playoffs anyway, I'd rather draft top5 than top15.

 

[Winger98]

Well I'm not gonna know Bogosian is a disappointment instantly, am I? So hard to say what my plan would be without a crystal ball. The top rated defenseman next year are Ryan Merkley and Rasmus Dahlin, who are pure offensive defenseman. Top rated guy this year is as well. So I'd call your scenario unlikely, but it is possible of course.

Still by far the most probable way to go. Of course there are no guarantees in life. You just have to play the percentages the best you can.

It should be pointed out that Bogosian is a top3 D on a lot of teams, logging 20+ minutes a night. He wouldn't be a bad add here, and he played a significant part in Winnipeg pulling Myers out of Buffalo in that trade. Outside of someone like Yakupov imploding in the NHL, these high picks seem to hold a good chunk of trade value, even if the team that originally drafts them isn't altogether happy with how things turn out.

As you said, it's really just playing percentages. Better players typically go higher in the draft and the high you pick, the better your chances. But it's still just a lottery ticket. I'm still not sure I see why we should complain about likely getting just a very very good player over a HoF generational talent player, though. I mean, yeah, we're not going to get a Crosby level player. Most teams don't. And?

 

[obey86]

So, you don't want these guys because they'll make us better?

We'll leave alone the likelihood that one of these guys, as a rookie, makes us a playoff bubble team. We stand a good chance of drafting high this year, at least as good of a chance as that as making the playoffs. What would you advocate we do? Trade down to minimize the chances of getting better too quickly? Gut the rest of the club to minimize whatever positives a high pick might give?

I'm sorry if this comes off as snide, but I genuinely don't understand what you would want the wings to do at this point, because they aren't a truly horrible, rebuilding organization in the mold of what Toronto, Edmonton, and Buffalo have went through. So a high pick, along with guys like Larkin, Mrazek, and Mantha taking that next step might elevate us from one of the bottom five clubs in the league to somewhere in that 15-25 range that could squeak into the playoffs, or have the wheels fall off and be a lottery team again.

Outside of a HoF level goalie, I'm not sure any one player will elevate any team to a cup contender. So, I'm not sure why I wouldn't want to pick as high as possible and increase our chances at getting a top half of the lineup level player. If we're missing the playoffs anyway, I'd rather draft top5 than top15.

I never said that. I certainly want them. I'm not in the crowd that thinks it's impossible to move from a bubble team to a Stanley Cup contender without top 5 picks. There are plenty of people here who believe it's near impossible to take the step from bubble team to contender without tearing everything down first to become really bad and completely starting over and hoping to get lucky.

I simply don't understand why the "a bubble team can't become contenders without top 5 picks" crowd would want him though. Seems like using their logic, we draft Tavares and become a bubble team and then we still need a #1 defender. How, as a bubble team, do we then get that #1 defender without top 5 picks when they think it's near impossible to do so? Aren't we just back to the same place we've been the last 5 seasons (again using their logic) as a bubble team with no hope of acquiring top tier defensemen?

 

[obey86]

Well I'm not gonna know Bogosian is a disappointment instantly, am I? So hard to say what my plan would be without a crystal ball. The top rated defenseman next year are Ryan Merkley and Rasmus Dahlin, who are pure offensive defenseman. Top rated guy this year is as well. So I'd call your scenario unlikely, but it is possible of course.

Still by far the most probable way to go. Of course there are no guarantees in life. You just have to play the percentages the best you can.

I'm talking 3-4 years down the road. Bogosian is above average but doesn't look like he's ever going to be a #1 defender.. Tavares is as good as he is right now.

It's 2021. The Wings have had 2 top 5 picks in that span and drafted Tavares and Bogosian. Instead of being a bottom 5 team now the Wings are now a bubble team (just like they have been the past 4-5 seasons) with no real hope at top 5 draft picks.

Tavares and Bogo are good enough to keep the Wings as a bubble team for the foreseeable future. At that point, how do the Wings get the game changing defensive talent they need to compete for the cup? How do they go from bubble team to cup contender? I think it's more possible than people think to get great players #15 or later so I would stay the course and hope to get lucky with a player or players that greatly exceed their draft slot.

What do YOU do though?

 

[Winger98]

I never said that. I certainly want them. I'm not in the crowd that thinks it's impossible to move from a bubble team to a Stanley Cup contender without top 5 picks. There are plenty of people here who believe it's near impossible to take the step from bubble team to contender without tearing everything down first to become really bad and completely starting over and hoping to get lucky.

I simply don't understand why the "a bubble team can't become contenders without top 5 picks" crowd would want him though. Seems like using their logic, we draft Tavares and become a bubble team and then we still need a #1 defender. How, as a bubble team, do we then get that #1 defender without top 5 picks when they think it's near impossible to do so? Aren't we just back to the same place we've been the last 5 seasons (again using their logic) as a bubble team with no hope of acquiring top tier defensemen?

I'm not sure a rookie Taveras elevates us to a bubble team, but the problem you're outlining is a problem if we ever draft a player of that caliber. We're looking at a lot of key contributors continuing to age, and young guys who haven't stepped up. And looking at other clubs that have actually rebuilt successfully through the draft (Chicago and Pittsburgh are the most obvious but also most extreme in that they are cup winners) took several drafts to do it.

I think it would have been possible to rebuild better than we have w/o a top5 pick, but we needed to be doing stuff like dealing Helm and Quincey in UFA years for extra picks to really have a shot at it. At this point, to return to being continual contenders for long playoff runs, I think it'll take multiple draft, or us getting some serious luck with guys we currently have - I'm thinking of Larkin, Mantha, and Mrazek, specifically. Especially Mrazek.

 

[Dotter]

I'm not sure dealing Helm or KFQ at TDL would make much of an impact if any at all. Wings don't need more Ritola's, Mursak's or Cory Emmerton's. For that matter, they don't need more Marchenko's, Jensen's or Backman's.

Lets face it, Wings haven't been good at finding late round gems.

 

[obey86]

I'm not sure a rookie Taveras elevates us to a bubble team, but the problem you're outlining is a problem if we ever draft a player of that caliber. We're looking at a lot of key contributors continuing to age, and young guys who haven't stepped up. And looking at other clubs that have actually rebuilt successfully through the draft (Chicago and Pittsburgh are the most obvious but also most extreme in that they are cup winners) took several drafts to do it.

I think it would have been possible to rebuild better than we have w/o a top5 pick, but we needed to be doing stuff like dealing Helm and Quincey in UFA years for extra picks to really have a shot at it. At this point, to return to being continual contenders for long playoff runs, I think it'll take multiple draft, or us getting some serious luck with guys we currently have - I'm thinking of Larkin, Mantha, and Mrazek, specifically. Especially Mrazek.

I personally believe a "rebuild on the fly" was possible being a bit more aggressive with trades, a bit more selective with long term contracts, and a few more draft picks working out with some luck. I don't think it was the idea that was the problem, but more the execution of the idea. I believe you need to be extremely lucky, no matter what methods you use to build a team. I think Chicago was extremely lucky getting 3 top pairing type defenders with picks at #15 or later in the draft. I think Pittsburgh was extremely lucky getting a couple of generational talents back to back.

The 2005-2012 stretch where the Red Wings had ZERO hits in the first round (to be fair they traded quite a few 1st rounders away altogether in those years also) really killed the chances of it happening successfully IMO. You simply can't 8 years straight in the first round without an impact player.

They also went from 2005-2012 drafting only Kindl, Smith, XO, Sproul, and Nicastro as defenders in the first 3 rounds of the draft. That's simply not enough spins at the wheel trying to find defenders high in the draft.

I'm optimistic with the drafts from 2013 - present. It looks like players like Mantha have probably already exceeded the slot they were drafted in. Need more of that.

 

[Frk It]

I'm talking 3-4 years down the road. Bogosian is above average but doesn't look like he's ever going to be a #1 defender.. Tavares is as good as he is right now.

It's 2021. The Wings have had 2 top 5 picks in that span and drafted Tavares and Bogosian. Instead of being a bottom 5 team now the Wings are now a bubble team (just like they have been the past 4-5 seasons) with no real hope at top 5 draft picks.

Tavares and Bogo are good enough to keep the Wings as a bubble team for the foreseeable future. At that point, how do the Wings get the game changing defensive talent they need to compete for the cup? How do they go from bubble team to cup contender? I think it's more possible than people think to get great players #15 or later so I would stay the course and hope to get lucky with a player or players that greatly exceed their draft slot.

What do YOU do though?

At that point... if we've already dipped down and tried two top 5 or two top 10 picks, I'd be more willing to stay the course like you are suggesting.

But a team is a lot more than 2 players so I have a hard time answering that question.

A lot of how I would approach that would depend on how the supporting cast develop over the next 5 years. What do Hronek, Saarijarvi, Cholowski become? Does Mantha become a 40-40 guy or a 20-20 guy? Does Larkin remain a 40-45 pt guy, or become a 60 pt guy, or even a ppg guy?

 

[Winger98]

I'm not sure dealing Helm or KFQ at TDL would make much of an impact if any at all. Wings don't need more Ritola's, Mursak's or Cory Emmerton's. For that matter, they don't need more Marchenko's, Jensen's or Backman's.

Lets face it, Wings haven't been good at finding late round gems.

Then you're advocating for a total tear down and rebuild, which is fine, but other than loading up on picks and taking more swings at the draft, I think the only other option is to essentially tank it and get the best picks.

We may not need more Marchenko's, and nothing may come of the extra picks, but nothing really came from hanging onto Helm and Quincey, either.

I personally believe a "rebuild on the fly" was possible being a bit more aggressive with trades, a bit more selective with long term contracts, and a few more draft picks working out with some luck. I don't think it was the idea that was the problem, but more the execution of the idea. I believe you need to be extremely lucky, no matter what methods you use to build a team. I think Chicago was extremely lucky getting 3 top pairing type defenders with picks at #15 or later in the draft. I think Pittsburgh was extremely lucky getting a couple of generational talents back to back.

The 2005-2012 stretch where the Red Wings had ZERO hits in the first round (to be fair they traded quite a few 1st rounders away altogether in those years also) really killed the chances of it happening successfully IMO. You simply can't 8 years straight in the first round without an impact player.

They also went from 2005-2012 drafting only Kindl, Smith, XO, Sproul, and Nicastro as defenders in the first 3 rounds of the draft. That's simply not enough spins at the wheel trying to find defenders high in the draft.

I'm optimistic with the drafts from 2013 - present. It looks like players like Mantha have probably already exceeded the slot they were drafted in. Need more of that.

Yeah, I'm pretty much with you here. I don't disagree at all about the luck aspect, but the team needs to pick a direction to help their odds a bit - acquire more picks to have more chances, or give up the ghost and gun for some higher picks. Routinely picking in the middle of the rounds ends up the worst of both worlds. We have a really mediocre team every year and we get picks just outside of that zone where we're most likely to get really good players without some substantial luck going our way.

Truth be told, I'm pretty optimistic about our drafting ability. I hate Holland's refusal to be more aggressive, but I don't doubt his eye for talent. And I really like the last few drafts. Really don't like the team we currently have to cheer on, though.

 

[Syckle78]

I'm not sure dealing Helm or KFQ at TDL would make much of an impact if any at all. Wings don't need more Ritola's, Mursak's or Cory Emmerton's. For that matter, they don't need more Marchenko's, Jensen's or Backman's.

Lets face it, Wings haven't been good at finding late round gems.

Nobody is until they do. There's zero downside to moving that cap space and talking more shots at it.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Lets face it, Wings haven't been good at finding late round gems.

The thing is, there aren't that many late round gems to find. Maybe 1 or 2 per year.

2011, when we drafted Marchenko in the 7th round, he was probably the 2nd best player taken in the last two rounds. Adrej Palat was taken by TB three picks later, the only genuine "gem" that year. In a re-draft he would go in the 1st round.

Mark Stone is the only player of any quality taken in the last two rounds from 2010

Anders Lee (career high 41 points!) is the best player from the last two rounds of 2009.

There is no player from 2012 onwards who has played over 100 games yet, so can't really judge yet. But like I said, there are 1 or 2 guys per year taken with those late round picks that turn out to be anything worthwhile, so lets stop pretending that the Wings are being made to look like chumps here.