Speculation: So what's wrong then (Possession + shots for/against)

[Mess]

In short, we are weak at the Center position and other teams are catching on. Now with injury and nothing on the farm because it was wise to keep Mclaren and Ashton over Colborne, we are in deep **** and forced to make a move for a C which we will probably overpay for.

Dave Bolland was a good 3rd line center on a strong Cup contending team and Bozak is considered a 3rd line capable center on a contending team, while Kadri is young, inexperience and developing.

Looks like a pair of 3rd line centers and a big question mark in training that exposes Leafs team weakness for all to see. It was already a team disadvantage when everyone is healthy, now with Bozak and Bolland out it going to get real ugly.

Leafs are tight against the cap and have far too much money and cap invested in wingers the least important position on a winning hockey team. The only solution to fix this is move money\cap from the wing to address your weakness at center.

Successful team building strategy = "Build from the goalie out, through strong defense, & strength down the middle". We are seeing in Corsi numbers (poor puck possession/shot totals) what happens when you try building from the wingers in at the expense of strong centers. If Leafs 2nd overall PP dries up, the Leafs record will go South to reflect the Corsi numbers as defying the odds is not likely sustainable over a full season.

 

[p.l.f.]

They look
- out of condition ?
- Or tired and banged up a after a yr where they went all out?
- out of synch from an ineffective training camp ?
- lazy, figuring they can win with a half ass effort thx to the speciality teams and goalies ?

 

[Pi]

Coaching problem along with the wrong D pairings/wrong defenseman on the team.

Team is never ready out of the gate in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd periods. We're almost lifeless to start each and every period.

I like Phaneuf and Gunnarsson but they shouldn't be playing together. Phaneuf needs a Rielly/Gardiner on his pairing, much better skaters.

Gunnarsson should be with one of Rielly/Gardiner too.

-Franson needs to be traded before the rest of the league figures out that he's terrible.
-Ranger hasn't been as bad as people say...but he's really slow. I hope he can get back in shape and start skating better. He's great position wise but he's really easy to beat on the rush.

I bet that if we can call Matt Finn from the OHL an hour before our game starts, he can play better than Franson. That's how horrible Franson is.

 

[Alerion]

Coaching problem along with the wrong D pairings/wrong defenseman on the team.

Team is never ready out of the gate in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd periods. We're almost lifeless to start each and every period.

I like Phaneuf and Gunnarsson but they shouldn't be playing together. Phaneuf needs a Rielly/Gardiner on his pairing, much better skaters.

Gunnarsson should be with one of Rielly/Gardiner too.

-Franson needs to be traded before the rest of the league figures out that he's terrible.
-Ranger hasn't been as bad as people say...but he's really slow. I hope he can get back in shape and start skating better. He's great position wise but he's really easy to beat on the rush.

I bet that if we can call Matt Finn from the OHL an hour before our game starts, he can play better than Franson. That's how horrible Franson is.

It's like they go into the dressing room and forget how to play hockey. When was the last time we started a period well? We scored early in Edmonton but still got outplayed. It's embarrassing.

I honestly feel the breakout is our biggest issue. We turn the puck over in the neutral zone far too easily and frequently, even on the PP. It's hard to generate any even strength offense if all you can break out of your own zone.

 

[JackJ]

Grabo was/is a neutral zone turnover machine.

 

[Paradoc]

Coaching problem along with the wrong D pairings/wrong defenseman on the team.

Team is never ready out of the gate in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd periods. We're almost lifeless to start each and every period.

I like Phaneuf and Gunnarsson but they shouldn't be playing together. Phaneuf needs a Rielly/Gardiner on his pairing, much better skaters.

Gunnarsson should be with one of Rielly/Gardiner too.

-Franson needs to be traded before the rest of the league figures out that he's terrible.
-Ranger hasn't been as bad as people say...but he's really slow. I hope he can get back in shape and start skating better. He's great position wise but he's really easy to beat on the rush.

I bet that if we can call Matt Finn from the OHL an hour before our game starts, he can play better than Franson. That's how horrible Franson is.

Franson sucks ass at defense but he is really good along the boards, offensively and is a threat on the pp. If he goes then who is going to provide offense from the blueline? Phaneuf 7 pts in 15 games? Rielly 5 pts in 15 games or Gardiner 3 pts in 15 games? All of the defenseman play pp minutes as well. Also don't mention Liles because Franson scored three times as many points as he did last year...

I just think Franson needs Fraser back. Maybe scratch Gardiner because he has been least impressive to me so far...

 

[Quixotic]

I have been a Leafs fan since 1957, and I believe that beyond a "marginal" set of centers, (due to inexperience and size) the Leafs lack 'leadership' in the room .. I believe Clarkson will be the 'cure' for this, but only if Dion is moved and Clarkson assumes the Captaincy .. durable Centers and effective power-forwards are at a premium, as always.

 

[Diatomic]

Its wierd I remember last season our best period was usually in the 1st, leading to us scoring the opening goal. Scary how fast things change, now our 1st periods are dreadful.

 

[Kingstonian84*]

I'll tell you what I think the problem is-

It starts off when we win the faceoff, we dump it in and the other team outhustles us to the puck then they come back at us and that's when we get pinned in our own end. We just start acting stupid, such as making passes that either go right to the opposition, hit off our skates or when we do bank it off the boards it doesn't get all the way out.

I really believe Carlyle needs to change his approach because we don't have the size or meanness in our top 6 or even top 9 to play a chip n chase game, and quite frankly it's embarrassing to watch. Our team up front is built as a speedy rush-style attack team, if we were to stick to that I gurantee you we get much better puck possession and shots on net thus limiting time spent in our own end and shots against.

The problem is 50% mental and 50% physical.

 

[ponder]

IMO it's a mix of:


a) Lots of personnel changes, IMO the team hasn't fully gelled despite managing to scrape out the wins

b) Lots of injuries, we've been playing with a number of key players out virtually every night

c) We lack centres who can really dominate the puck. Our top 2 centres are Bozak and Kadri. Bozak, even before he got injured, is out of his league on the 1st line, he really is not a guy who just "owns" the puck at all. Kadri has talent, but is still fairly young, and he gets outmuscled on a pretty regular basis. Great centres like Crosby, Malkin, Getzlaf, Staal, Bergeron, Kopitar, Datsyuk, Thornton, Backstrom, H Sedin, Toews, Couture, Zettererg, etc. can get the puck and keep the puck, we really do not have centres like that

d) Further on the centre point, we get DOMINATED on faceoffs. We're at 45% as a team, 4th worst in the league. The strong faceoff teams are at 55%, that means the strong teams are getting the puck almost 22% more than us on draws (they get it 5.5 times out of every 10 draws, vs. 4.5 for us. (5.5-4.5)/4.5 = 22%).

e) Our defence is talented but green. Phaneuf is really the only really good top 4 dman on the team. Gunnarsson is a mediocre #4, while Franson, Gardiner and Rielly all have lots of talent, but are young players with a ways to go before they're complete, 2-way, high impact dmen. In this case I think we mostly just need to be patient


I think a lot of our problems will "fix themselves" over the coming years as guys like Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner and Franson improve as they age. At the same time, it would definitely help if we could upgrade Bozak to a strong top 6 centre, and maybe tweak our defence. Staying healthy would help a lot too, but that's more or less out of management's control (though implementing easy-wins from a safety point of view like mandatory skate protectors during practice, and mandatory kevlar socks at all times would certainly help).

Also, it will be a problem eventually, puck possession is something we absolutely need to fix. For all the "**** CORSI" chants that people love to sprout, it's very hard to be a top team when you rarely have the puck. Forget advanced stats, just watch the games and the puck is in our end the majority of the time, that's a problem. Our goalies have been lights out, and we've been finishing exceptionally well, but eventually our goalies will go through cold streaks, as will our shooters, and if we continue to get dominated in terms of puck possession we will lose plenty of games when this happens. Not that we're going to start being awful or anything, but we've been playing like a 6-8 seed, not a 1-3 seed, and unless we can change things it will start to show in our record, especially with the injuries piling up.

 

[Backhandshelf81]

c) Lacking in centres who can really dominate the puck. Our top 2 centres are Bozak and Kadri. Bozak, even before he got injured, is out of his league on the 1st line. Kadri has talent, but is still fairly young, and can still get muscled off the puck fairly easily. Great centres like Crosby, Malkin, Getzlaf, Staal, Bergeron, Kopitar, Datsyuk, Thornton, Backstrom, H Sedin, Toews, Couture, Zettererg, etc. can get the puck and keep the puck, we really do not have centres like that

This is a key point, and imo the biggest contributor to these possession/shot differential issues.

Now, it's pretty clear that we can't really go out and get one of those elite centers without sacrificing depth. We can hope Kadri turns into one of them, but until then, I think the coaches need to get our wingers to step up. The wingers need to start providing much more support to the D when in our zone to regain possession of the puck, and be more active and support in the breakout.

 

[DD03]

I think it's a team thing and not a direct positional thing or a direct of anyone's fault. I think our team needs to want the puck more instead of having confidence in our defensive play or offensive play for that matter. We need to control games if we want to win them, not just hold teams to the outside and have faith in our defense, goaltending and scoring ability.

This team knows how to score you can't argue that. They can defend, you can't argue that. Even though the possession and shot ratio argument has been blow out of proportion, we need to remember when it counts, our team can control the puck. I know we've all been let down by those times when the Leafs can't even control the puck, or when we actually pull the goalie and can't seem to put it together. But when down a goal we can really seem to control the puck. We can cycle and work hard, keep our feet moving, get the puck back fast and control it for stretches of time.

This is what makes me think it's a mentality thing. And Carlyle needs to figure it out. Our team seems to only want to score a goal and control the puck when they want to, and relying on every other aspect of the game. So far so good, but only time will tell.

 

[cookie]

It could also be that since we're winning while playing substandard hockey, anything the coach says will be dismissed. Maybe collapsing anytime there's a threat is causing our forwards to not be in proper position to help our defense in the breakout?

 

[jimmycarter]

even with everybody healthy: No #1 C.

and a whole bunch of d-men that are 5-6 guys.

 

[Pi]

even with everybody healthy: No #1 C.

and a whole bunch of d-men that are 5-6 guys.

Let's hope that Franson isn't signed to a long term deal. This defense is bad.

Phaneuf is a #1 but after that we have #4, #5 and #6 D's playing way too many minutes.

I hope Rielly takes the step next year becomes that top pairing D this team needs. Gardiner is a good bet to be a strong #3/#4 OFD.

Franson should be trade bait. Ranger should not be re-signed.

It's amazing how our defense keeps giving the puck away like it's a practice or preseason game. They have zero compete in trying to get the puck back once they nonchalantly give it away.

 

[Erndog]

I find it so strange. You can literally pluck 18 random guys throughout the league, put them together and possibly outshoot your opponent and have more zone time than us.

We have guys who play together, know each other and their tendencies well... and some really skilled players and they get hemmed in their zone nightly, constantly outshot and outchanced and just generally outplayed nightly. I don't understand it.

 

[Pi]

I find it so strange. You can literally pluck 18 random guys throughout the league, put them together and possibly outshoot your opponent and have more zone time than us.

We have guys who play together, know each other and their tendencies well... and some really skilled players and they get hemmed in their zone nightly, constantly outshot and outchanced and just generally outplayed nightly. I don't understand it.

I don't always agree with Mirtle but I think he's onto something when he says that it is a coaching problem.

Being outshot isn't something I care about if the team plays good but you can clearly notice the difference between the Leafs and the team that plays us most of the time.

The Leafs HAVE to get better or a collapse isn't too hard to predict. They are losing puck battles, they are making the silliest gift wrapped turnovers and as a result are caught in their own zone far too often and that usually ends up with the Leafs taking too many penalties.

I am 99.9% sure that Buffalo could outshoot us if we played them right now.

I hope we're not too loyal with Carlyle. If we don't make the playoffs, he should be fired. There is no way you can justify keeping him on as coach if we routinely get outshot and end up missing the playoffs because it just means that Carlyle's system is a load of BS.

Things HAVE to improve. No team ever wins the Stanley Cup playing the way the Leafs have. I love the 10-5 record but it shouldn't blind anyone.

 

[hockeyes]

I actually think the problem is very simple. The team collapses way too soon and too far unnecessarily. This creates a huge amount of open space at the points which means the other team can reset their cycle at any time, just pass it back to the point and the d has all the time in the world to either make a play or restart a cycle. Even when the Leafs do get possession there is still no pressure on the points, the winger cheats and jumps behind the d holding the line while a forward from the other team swings back to protect the pinching d. In order for the Leafs plan to work they need to get the puck from a team with tons of space and then get it past the d at the line along the boards. It's a very low percentage play and teams that recognize the situation just take advantage and make them look like armatures.

The solution seems very simple, the collapse shouldn't be as deep, less space at the points, and there needs to be more support at the line when possession is regained. We have solid goaltending and I am sure we could survive with replacing 20 less shots a game with 1 or 2 more quality chances in exchange for way more possession and attack time.

I really believe pressuring the points would make a world of difference. The d is not bad but they look bad because they have no options, except maybe Franson so far.

The part I am worried about is this is Carlyle's game plan, the hard collapse. I really wish he expanded on what he was disappointed about after Vancouver because from everything I've seen the team is doing what he wants. Unless he actually wants more support at the line but that is such an easy thing to get across to the players I doubt anyone couldn't make that clear.

 

[Backhandshelf81]

I actually think the problem is very simple. The team collapses way too soon and too far unnecessarily.

Yup. User 'cookie' also mentioned it in a few posts above too.

Really good article about these issues here (with screencaps from games to illustrate):
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...sing-defensively-leafs-coaching-breakouts-101

A lot of debate in the comments too about whether it's personnel or systemic - I think it's a mix.

 

[Mess]

Things HAVE to improve. No team ever wins the Stanley Cup playing the way the Leafs have. I love the 10-5 record but it shouldn't blind anyone.

The Corsi stats don't lie, as our Leafs get outshot and outplayed in time of possession on a regular basis.

The record is solid despite the poor overall play and its goaltending the #1 reason and #2 specialty teams for the early success defying the Corsi numbers.

 

[leafobserver]

Leafs aren't starting with the puck. 27th in the league in draws at 45%. Puck possession and shots for/against directly correlate with what team starts out with the puck. Get better in the faceoff circle, play better defensively.

This alone is why I can see Smithson getting an opportunity (maybe even sending Smith down) as he's been very good on draws in his career.

 

[Rare Jewel]

even with everybody healthy: No #1 C.

and a whole bunch of d-men that are 5-6 guys.

Agree on #1, Not really debatable.

Disagree on Point #2

 

[Captain Clutch 13]

I think breakouts our one of our biggest problems. PPP had a good article on it today. http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...sing-defensively-leafs-coaching-breakouts-101

Essentially our wingers collapse super far in order to clog up the middle and keep the puck to the perimeter but it cripples our breakout because our D-men have no one to pass to so they chip it off the glass and its a turnover. The article goes more in depth.

It is really frustrating how even a team like Calgary can dominate us at even strength even though we're clearly more skilled. I hope they can fix it.

 

[ECanuck]

They look
- out of condition ?
- Or tired and banged up a after a yr where they went all out?
- out of synch from an ineffective training camp ?
- lazy, figuring they can win with a half ass effort thx to the speciality teams and goalies ?

The boys will get their heads out of their butts soon. They have been getting by with their skill and the two goaltenders.

It was embarrassing watching them Saturday. I wanted to hide and I was in my basement already.

 

[vwbm]

Well obviously getting outshot every night,
and not carrying the play with puck possession is certainly a flaw that I'm not sure they have the
Personnel to straighten it out.
Forwards gotta help more with structure & support.
The lack of technical know how and intensity has me worried at times this year defensively.
That they are too easy to play against doesn't help.
Maybe Kulemin Clarkson and Fraser should help in the grit department I'm sure.
Losing komerov and the fact he was a pain to play against has hurt them,
But hey 10-5 all is well I say.

I wish maybe they steal some ideas from Detroit and Chicago
They seem so structured and organized with puck possession
And aggressive forechecking (Hense swarming)


I say copy some drills aka Detroit uses on breakouts and puck possession systems I heard they start all over every time a pass is fumbled etc.


Start slow with puck possession drill then pick up speed it's bound to help,
And forwards damn it we don't need a huge gap between forwards and D
Quick short 10ft passes always best.


There a bit of a rant.
Tyx