So... about the tank.

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

How quickly did Toronto return to the playoffs?
Shanahan hired April 2014.
14-15 - finished 4th worst. Draft Marner. Dermott.
15-16 - finished worst. Draft Matthews.
16-17 - In playoffs.

But apparently Detroit isn't getting there until 2025-2026.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This isn't tanking philosophy, Holland never tanked this is the result of Holland driving a burning dumpster straight over a cliff. There is a difference between sacrificing some seasons to let your draft strategy pan out, and going for it 6-8 years after your core's cup window closed. Everytime you see the 25 straight playoff appearances record think to your self this is the cost, of watching your team so far in a hole there is no time table for when hockey is going to be even back to average in the D.

People say yeah what about Mantha and Larkin. Every team can find a Mantha and Larkin over 10 years of drafting. The problem with the wings is that during the years they "should have" been tanking they could have gotten some top 5 picks where there are players with size speed and NHL ready. Instead on the outside looking in all our picks have "upside" that may or may not pan out.

I trust in Yzerman though because he knows how to work all aspects, UFA, contracts, trades, and the draft. All Holland ever did in the last 10 years or so was draft well on rare occasions. His contracts were terrible, his trades were losers, and the free agents were generic past prime garbage just to make the playoffs and pick in the second half of the first round and then the 3rd because he almost always traded the second-round pick for more veteran garbage.

Point being this tank is not intentional, its the result of having a horrendous GM with a strategy that predictably put us where we are.

There is tanking on purpose under the direction of bad management which most people point to examples as why tanking doesn't work, and then there is restraining yourself from spending to the cap and bringing in big market UFA when you have "no cup window" Yzerman understands the difference so I am not worried, but its going to take a while this won't be like Tampa.

Most of your successful "tank strategies" aren't tank strategies by design. Chicago? That was terrible management that led to an awful team, awful management being ousted and replaced by competent leadership who took the fruits of the high draft picks from bad management and build a roster. Pittsburgh? Bad management that led to good management taking hold and gripping and ripping. Edmonton didn't get the message and replaced terrible leadership with more terrible leadership and just now has replaced it with what could be good leadership.

Toronto? They were a complete afterthought and by the time it was Shanaplan-city, the team had literally no choice but to dig out the cancer of the Brian Burke era and rebuild. People are taking the wrong message if they want their team to follow Pittsburgh and Chicago. The tanking efforts that have succeeded in professional sports that were actual tanks... Houston Astros. If you want to extend a bit to a team that hasn't had the big success yet but looks primed to do so, the Philadelphia 76ers.

That's it. Two successful tank jobs in professional sports that led to a championship caliber roster. But sure, let's hitch our wagon to that and not countenance any other method. By and large teams that try to be awful never get better. They only improve once the brain trust that drove them to the bottom of the league is gone.

Tigers - 1990-2003, incompetent leadership leads to ever worsening results. Around 2004, competent management shows up and they start adding pieces (albeit at inflated prices) and by 2006, they're playing for a title. Then, the team runs its course and by 2014, they're looking to rebuild again. Now, we're 2-3 years deep into a rebuild and we have NOTHING worth a damn in town. Our best pieces are a 30 year old "ace", a guy in his mid 20s who can't escape the injury bug, and the anchoriest anchor of a contract that ever anchored. Along with a group of about 3 minor league pitchers that look incredibly re-assuring, but that also haven't thrown a pitch above AA yet.

Tanking, by and large, is bad management, not good.

 

[Oddbob]

Look at all the Stanley Cup winners since the cap was installed.
How many didn't have a top 5 pick?

How many included Crosby and Malkin? Two Franchise/Generational guys don't come together that close very often let alone the same team. That is very unlikely to be repeated, especially since PIT got the first one (Crosby) in a lucky league draw that included all teams. The success of tanking looks a lot worse without PITT in the mix. There are more RNH type 1st overalls than Crosby's, and tanking can just as easily land you only pretty good players, rather than game changers. There are also more failure tanking teams than successes. EDM, BUF, ARI and a few others tank pretty regularly and yet to have any success and that includes EDM who was lucky enough to get McDavid.

 

[ThankGord]

That's it. Two successful tank jobs in professional sports that led to a championship caliber roster. But sure, let's hitch our wagon to that and not countenance any other method. By and large teams that try to be awful never get better. They only improve once the brain trust that drove them to the bottom of the league is gone.

Not advocating for tanking, but your post jogged my memory about an article I read recently that mentioned a few successful teams that used the tanking strategy:

"You don't need to look far to find successful examples of teams tanking as part of their rebuilds. The Astros and Cubs parlayed years of dismal seasons into World Series victories. The 76ers, who tanked with gusto under Sam Hinkie, are among the favorites to win the 2020 NBA championship."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27699720/barnwell-dolphins-really-doing-how-tank-win

That being said, it can really backfire and cause organizational problems, like promising players requesting trades (Dolphins).

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I don't really understand the other option to what people are calling "tanking."

Lidstrom retired, Franzen LTIRetired, Datsyuk left, Zetterberg LTIRetired, Kronwall's knees were crumbling. There weren't any miracle late picks like Dats and Z to carry the next generation.

It's not like Holland blew up the team to tank. The roster had simply decayed over time. He brought in guys he could like Green and Nielsen. But it's gonna be extremely difficult to attract high end talent long term when everyone can see the roster is still trending downwards.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Not advocating for tanking, but your post jogged my memory about an article I read recently that mentioned a few successful teams that used the tanking strategy:

"You don't need to look far to find successful examples of teams tanking as part of their rebuilds. The Astros and Cubs parlayed years of dismal seasons into World Series victories. The 76ers, who tanked with gusto under Sam Hinkie, are among the favorites to win the 2020 NBA championship."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27699720/barnwell-dolphins-really-doing-how-tank-win

That being said, it can really backfire and cause organizational problems, like promising players requesting trades (Dolphins).

Did the Cubs actually actively tank or did that just have bad management that got reversed by bringing in Theo Epstein? But I even said, you can count the Astros and the 76ers as successes of "The Process". However, I'd be willing to put teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Arizona, Buffalo in the NHL as failures.

If you wanted another true possible contender for being a success, Cleveland Indians.

But so much of the tanking strategy is predicated on simply being lucky, lucky in that the guy that is there for you to take is a true franchise changing guy.

 

[MBH]

How many included Crosby and Malkin? Two Franchise/Generational guys don't come together that close very often let alone the same team. That is very unlikely to be repeated, especially since PIT got the first one (Crosby) in a lucky league draw that included all teams. The success of tanking looks a lot worse without PITT in the mix. There are more RNH type 1st overalls than Crosby's, and tanking can just as easily land you only pretty good players, rather than game changers. There are also more failure tanking teams than successes. EDM, BUF, ARI and a few others tank pretty regularly and yet to have any success and that includes EDM who was lucky enough to get McDavid.

What's the path to success in the salary cap era that doesn't involve lottery picks?
Give me examples.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Do we need to have that conversation about how rebuilding ≠ tanking?

 

[Ezekial]

Did the Cubs actually actively tank or did that just have bad management that got reversed by bringing in Theo Epstein?

Theo Epstien tanked when he got here lol. Theo signed in 2011, Bryant was drafted 2 overall in 2013, Schwarber was 4 in 2014, and Ian Happ 9th in 2015. Then they won the WS end of 2016.

 

[MBH]

Cup winners in the 10 Cups
Top 6 picks. (not drafted by team)
10 Blackhawks - Kane. Toews. (Ladd)
11 Bruins - Seguin
12 Kings - Doughty
13 Blackhawks - Kane, Toews
14 Kings - Doughty
15 Blackhawks - Kane, Toews
16 Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, (Kessel)
17 Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, (Kessel)
18 Capitals - Ovechkin, Backstrom
19 Blues - Pietrangelo (Bouwmeester)

 

[MBH]

Most of your successful "tank strategies" aren't tank strategies by design. Chicago? That was terrible management that led to an awful team, awful management being ousted and replaced by competent leadership who took the fruits of the high draft picks from bad management and build a roster. Pittsburgh? Bad management that led to good management taking hold and gripping and ripping. Edmonton didn't get the message and replaced terrible leadership with more terrible leadership and just now has replaced it with what could be good leadership.

Toronto? They were a complete afterthought and by the time it was Shanaplan-city, the team had literally no choice but to dig out the cancer of the Brian Burke era and rebuild. People are taking the wrong message if they want their team to follow Pittsburgh and Chicago. The tanking efforts that have succeeded in professional sports that were actual tanks... Houston Astros. If you want to extend a bit to a team that hasn't had the big success yet but looks primed to do so, the Philadelphia 76ers.

That's it. Two successful tank jobs in professional sports that led to a championship caliber roster. But sure, let's hitch our wagon to that and not countenance any other method. By and large teams that try to be awful never get better. They only improve once the brain trust that drove them to the bottom of the league is gone.

Tigers - 1990-2003, incompetent leadership leads to ever worsening results. Around 2004, competent management shows up and they start adding pieces (albeit at inflated prices) and by 2006, they're playing for a title. Then, the team runs its course and by 2014, they're looking to rebuild again. Now, we're 2-3 years deep into a rebuild and we have NOTHING worth a damn in town. Our best pieces are a 30 year old "ace", a guy in his mid 20s who can't escape the injury bug, and the anchoriest anchor of a contract that ever anchored. Along with a group of about 3 minor league pitchers that look incredibly re-assuring, but that also haven't thrown a pitch above AA yet.

Tanking, by and large, is bad management, not good.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals are two teams that ABSOLUTELY tanked to get Crosby/Ovechkin.
You can't do that today.

What the NYR did last year was BEAUTIFUL.
They were going to suck anyway. So they told fans, hey, we suck. We need to get better. And this is how we're going to do it.

They sold off nearly everything they could - Tank move - and still finished ahead of the Red Wings.
And then they got fortunate in the lottery.

Then they go get Panarin.

And maybe they're a playoff team now.

That's how you do it.

Frankly, I'm not sure Yzerman's calls for patience are a great sign.

It's not hard to imagine a scenario where the Red Wings could have turned things around quickly - with a bit of luck.

Say they got lucky and won Hughes or Kakko.

Now, say they trade a few B-grade prospects and some second round picks for PK Subban.

How much better do this team's prospects looks for being in the mix?

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I think waiting one extra year before making major moves is okay. Yzerman is entering his first year as GM of the Red Wings. Making moves that simply look good on paper with limited consulting with Red Wings staff and limited focus on the Red Wings roster would not have been prudent, and I would prefer he wait and make an educated move than rush into a move that looks good based on what is general consensus (PK Subban is good, yay). I think even if we added one impact defenseman that doesn't mean the team is ready to contend, and in that time we are hoping the few "high-tier" prospects we have will all pan out and the team will mesh together well enough to contend while he is in his prime.

 

[DanZ]

One elite forward changes things significantly. All of a sudden you have two pretty damn good scoring lines. This team could be good as soon as next year if they’re lucky.

 

[MBH]

But apparently Detroit isn't getting there until 2025-2026.

Unless we jump the train with trades, right.
Toronto had a few pieces - on defense especially, that allowed them some ability to turn it up.

They also hired a coach that probably could have gotten them in the playoffs his first year before he called off the dogs.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, that coach's shelf life is about to expire.

 

[MBH]

I think waiting one extra year before making major moves is okay. Yzerman is entering his first year as GM of the Red Wings. Making moves that simply look good on paper with limited consulting with Red Wings staff and limited focus on the Red Wings roster would not have been prudent, and I would prefer he wait and make an educated move than rush into a move that looks good based on what is general consensus (PK Subban is good, yay). I think even if we added one impact defenseman that doesn't mean the team is ready to contend, and in that time we are hoping the few "high-tier" prospects we have will all pan out and the team will mesh together well enough to contend while he is in his prime.

To me, I'm fine waiting this year out.
But whether its Subban this year or someone else next year... you're going to be waiting awhile for this team to be good unless you bring in a high quality defenseman from outside the organization.

Waiting for four kids to improve on your blueline at the same time.... that can be a hard process.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The team is on the right path but dont compared Detroit to Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, Toronto etc unless or until you admit you need a kane, Ovechkin, crosby and Mathews

We will need to finish bottom 3 and draft there at least once otherwise its 2 or 3 more picks in the 6-10 range for us.

But we need that elite star before anything else can fall into place

 

[Red Stanley]

A team full of Gustavs and Dennises ... what can possibly go wrong?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

To me, I'm fine waiting this year out.
But whether its Subban this year or someone else next year... you're going to be waiting awhile for this team to be good unless you bring in a high quality defenseman from outside the organization.

Waiting for four kids to improve on your blueline at the same time.... that can be a hard process.

This is one thing that we are saying the same thing. That's why I've been saying that they should deal either AA or Mantha. They need a big upgrade on D to just re-work the whole thing. They don't necessarily have all bad defensemen, just most of them have been woefully overslotted. They need a guy who can push DDK to be the 2nd pairing guy he is, to move Ericsson/Daley/etc. to the bottom pairing for good. I was pissed we didn't make a stronger move for Subban or for Trouba.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals are two teams that ABSOLUTELY tanked to get Crosby/Ovechkin.
You can't do that today.

What the NYR did last year was BEAUTIFUL.
They were going to suck anyway. So they told fans, hey, we suck. We need to get better. And this is how we're going to do it.

They sold off nearly everything they could - Tank move - and still finished ahead of the Red Wings.
And then they got fortunate in the lottery.

Then they go get Panarin.

And maybe they're a playoff team now.

That's how you do it.

Frankly, I'm not sure Yzerman's calls for patience are a great sign.

It's not hard to imagine a scenario where the Red Wings could have turned things around quickly - with a bit of luck.

Say they got lucky and won Hughes or Kakko.

Now, say they trade a few B-grade prospects and some second round picks for PK Subban.

How much better do this team's prospects looks for being in the mix?

And on this one, if the Wings had draft lottery luck and got a Hughes/Kakko or maybe even if Turcotte had fallen to 6, Yzerman would have done something different. He's not saying patience for patience's sake. There were not many moves available that wouldn't involve making a sweeping change to what they're doing and he wants to see where the team goes for a little bit before throwing the baby out with the bath water.

You can't build your entire strategy around luck. NYR would be doing something different and almost certainly don't add Panarin on the deal that they signed him for if they don't land Kakko too. And certainly don't go out and deal Pionk and a 1st and sign Trouba to 8x8.

 

[odin1981]

But apparently Detroit isn't getting there until 2025-2026.

So they weren't tanking prior to Shanahan getting there? Why don't you ask a leafs fan or two how long they where sucking for top 5-10 picks prior. One of there problems was there drafting was suspect because quite a few of there top picks busted/didn't live up to expectations. They were tanking for the better part of 10-12 years.

 

[NickH8]

I think we've got to admit it's about luck. There's no alternative to "tanking" now, there's no way out of this hole than luck. This conversation is very different if we get Kakko, Hughes, or even Dach.

 

[Oddbob]

What's the path to success in the salary cap era that doesn't involve lottery picks?
Give me examples.

I am more of the belief that there isn't a set way to win. There are pros and cons to any way you build, that I think you need to go with where your team is at, when they are rebuilding or retooling. If you get lucky and get a McDavid it is time to speed the rebuild up, by adding bigger name UFA's or at least trying to. If you are getting guys like we have in Larkin and Mantha, etc, I think just keep doing what you are doing, but not purposely losing just to hope you get that great pick. Let's say we finish last, and win the Lottery, and we get an RNH level player, that would suck to see a crappy team all year and end up with only a pretty good player. Even Jersey, and Philly in 2017, neither Hischier and even more Patrick are super exciting at this point, so I would consider them to be a lower end prize for watching a last place or bottom place team.

While it is harder to get great players, you can still get really good ones, by trying to win, and drafting well. Pastrnak is a great example, he is a huge piece for Boston and he was what 25th Overall? To me that is the more admirable way to go. Do your best, push for he playoffs, and if you miss, then so be it. We got Larkin who is darn good at 14, so it can happen. There are plenty of nothing Top 10 picks as well, like our own Dylan McIlrath who somehow went 10th Overall.

If we lose trying hard every night and get a Top pick I will of course be excited like everyone else, but I just hate this "Yay, we lost again!", or "Man I hope we give up the lead later on!"

 

[Oddbob]

So they weren't tanking prior to Shanahan getting there? Why don't you ask a leafs fan or two how long they where sucking for top 5-10 picks prior. One of there problems was there drafting was suspect because quite a few of there top picks busted/didn't live up to expectations. They were tanking for the better part of 10-12 years.

The Leafs weren't purposely losing before the Matthews draft. They simply had a roster filled with good/not great players needing to play above their ability. Kessel is a very good goal scorer, and in Toronto he had to be the go to guy. Phaneuf would have been a great #2 or #3 dman, but he was forced to play #1 in all roles, which was overload. They also ruined Luke Schenn, as he started out very nicely, but they tried pushing him past the stay at home physical defender he was, and pushed for him to be a 2 way defender which he was not. They only started the purposeful tank when they moved Kessel and Phaneuf, before that , they were simply a bad team that was trying to be a playoff team.

 

[MBH]

I am more of the belief that there isn't a set way to win. "

Well...
...
I don't know man. It sure seems like hitting homeruns in the draft is the way to go.
And the best place to do that is #1 overall.
Maybe we'll get a new cold war and hire guys to sneak Russians out.
Or maybe Hakan finds us a couple more late round franchise guys.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This is one thing that we are saying the same thing. That's why I've been saying that they should deal either AA or Mantha. They need a big upgrade on D to just re-work the whole thing. They don't necessarily have all bad defensemen, just most of them have been woefully overslotted. They need a guy who can push DDK to be the 2nd pairing guy he is, to move Ericsson/Daley/etc. to the bottom pairing for good. I was pissed we didn't make a stronger move for Subban or for Trouba.

I don't think the timing was right on Subban (plus he's a lockerroom cancer), and Trouba seemed to want nothing but being in New York.

So they weren't tanking prior to Shanahan getting there? Why don't you ask a leafs fan or two how long they where sucking for top 5-10 picks prior. One of there problems was there drafting was suspect because quite a few of there top picks busted/didn't live up to expectations. They were tanking for the better part of 10-12 years.

Another major problem they had for a long time was trading lots of picks/prospects for older, established players in moves to be good right away.

What's the path to success in the salary cap era that doesn't involve lottery picks?
Give me examples.

Future will tell, we're in uncharted territory with this lottery system. And while it's good to look at past examples of success in order to learn from them, it's also important not to get boxed up in a set idea of there only being 1 or 2 ways to build a winning team.
Leafs for example got lucky with their top picks, but now they're pretty much in cap hell already without having won anything. Is this the best way to win, finding 3-4 elite players that you give 50% of your cap space to? Or could a team with a more balanced approach and better depth turn out to be a winner?

How many "proper" rebuilds have we seen in the cap era? How many teams have really done what we have been doing, which is to patiently go through with the rebuilding process without blowing everything up, and without rushing things by trading picks and prospects for immediate help? Remains to see what Yzerman does, but I'm excited as heck to see what this team becomes, even if we don't land one of those coveted top 3 picks.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Cup winners in the 10 Cups
Top 6 picks. (not drafted by team)
10 Blackhawks - Kane. Toews. (Ladd)
11 Bruins - Seguin
12 Kings - Doughty
13 Blackhawks - Kane, Toews
14 Kings - Doughty
15 Blackhawks - Kane, Toews
16 Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, (Kessel)
17 Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, (Kessel)
18 Capitals - Ovechkin, Backstrom
19 Blues - Pietrangelo (Bouwmeester)

1) Seguin was a bit player on that team. He had 22 pts that year. And he wasn't drafted because the team tanked, he was acquired in a trade.
2)When you are looking at something like "teams that won that had top 5 picks on them" you are assuming causation. But "top 5 picks" are 16.7% of a draft. And a team may have players from 10 different drafts on its roster. It would be statistically unlikely for any team to have a roster without a pick from 10 drafts that wasn't in the top 16.7%.
3) Now list all the top 5 picks on teams that DIDN'T win the Cup in those years.