Snake Lottery Draft

[Letang fan 58]

Ok so im not that fond of the bad teams only getting 3 balls in the draft to start with....having it be a snake draft where the team that picks 30th getting to pick 31st and so on is a horrendous idea.

Although it may be ok for the team who gets Crosby....the team who ends up choosing 2nd does not get a chance to choose again until 59th.

The idea of weighting the draft with 3 balls for bad teams instead of 1 ball for better teams goes right out the window with the snake draft~

What are others thoughts on this.

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[Draft Guru]

Sounds good from the Rangers standpoint. I think they're almost guaranteed a top 10 pick, possibly even Crosby, and then they have the Flyers and the Leafs' 2nd round picks from the Malakhov and Leetch deals..so they'll have a top 10 pick, followed by two early second rounders probably in the 31-45 range and then their own second as well.

 

[loadie]

Ok so im not that fond of the bad teams only getting 3 balls in the draft to start with....having it be a snake draft where the team that picks 30th getting to pick 31st and so on is a horrendous idea.

Although it may be ok for the team who gets Crosby....the team who ends up choosing 2nd does not get a chance to choose again until 59th.

The idea of weighting the draft with 3 balls for bad teams instead of 1 ball for better teams goes right out the window with the snake draft~

What are others thoughts on this.

It's probably the fairest way to go. One other way may be to do a redraw after every 2nd turn is complete, so the 30th team might be able to snag a higher 3rd round pick, and so on.

 

[Jacob]

I think they should add a provision that says any team with 3 balls can't pick lower than say, 12th. Additionally, any team with 2 balls can't pick any lower than like, 25th or something.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Sounds good from the Rangers standpoint. I think they're almost guaranteed a top 10 pick, possibly even Crosby, and then they have the Flyers and the Leafs' 2nd round picks from the Malakhov and Leetch deals..so they'll have a top 10 pick, followed by two early second rounders probably in the 31-45 range and then their own second as well.

 

[gretzky1545]

Sounds good from the Rangers standpoint. I think they're almost guaranteed a top 10 pick, possibly even Crosby, and then they have the Flyers and the Leafs' 2nd round picks from the Malakhov and Leetch deals..so they'll have a top 10 pick, followed by two early second rounders probably in the 31-45 range and then their own second as well.

uh, i'd check that again, they are no where near gaurenteed a top 10 pick, and toronto's pick could easily fall in the top 15 given how lightly weighted the draft really is. Now odds are rangers will get a top 10 pick and toronto a bottom 15, but its far far from a sure thing, so i wouldn't get your hopes up till the ping pong balls get done rolling.

 

[NYIschremp44]

here are the odds of drawings the 1st overall pick in the 2005 draft lottery, the buffalo sabres, new york rangers, columbus blue jackets and florida panthers all have the best odds at 6.12% chance, if it weren't for the rule that every team would have atleast 1 ball, the islanders would have the least with -1
1 ball has odds of 2.04%
2 balls have the odds of 4.08%
3 balls have the odds of 6.12%

Anaheim 4.08%
Atlanta 4.08%
Boston 2.04%
Buffalo 6.12%
Calgary 4.08%
Carolina 2.04%
Chicago 4.08%
Colorado 2.04%
Columbus 6.12%
Dallas 2.04%
Detroit 2.04%
Edmonton 4.08%
Florida 6.12%
Los Angeles 4.08%
Minnesota 4.08%
Montreal 2.04%
Nashville 4.08%
New Jersey 2.04%
New York Islanders 2.04%
New York Rangers 6.12%
Ottawa 2.04%
Philadelphia 2.04%
Phoenix 4.08%
Pittsburgh 4.08%
San Jose 2.04%
St. Louis 2.04%
Tampa Bay 2.04%
Toronto 2.04%
Vancouver 2.04%
Washington 4.08%

 

[EroCaps]

here are the odds of drawings the 1st overall pick in the 2005 draft lottery, the buffalo sabres, new york rangers, columbus blue jackets and florida panthers all have the best odds at 6.12% chance, if it weren't for the rule that every team would have atleast 1 ball, the islanders would have the least with -1
1 ball has odds of 2.04%
2 balls have the odds of 4.08%
3 balls have the odds of 6.12%

Anaheim 4.08%
Atlanta 4.08%
Boston 2.04%
Buffalo 6.12%
Calgary 4.08%
Carolina 2.04%
Chicago 4.08%
Colorado 2.04%
Columbus 6.12%
Dallas 2.04%
Detroit 2.04%
Edmonton 4.08%
Florida 6.12%
Los Angeles 4.08%
Minnesota 4.08%
Montreal 2.04%
Nashville 4.08%
New Jersey 2.04%
New York Islanders 2.04%
New York Rangers 6.12%
Ottawa 2.04%
Philadelphia 2.04%
Phoenix 4.08%
Pittsburgh 4.08%
San Jose 2.04%
St. Louis 2.04%
Tampa Bay 2.04%
Toronto 2.04%
Vancouver 2.04%
Washington 4.08%

the Caps are @ 2.04%.

 

[al3x]

hmmm...these odds are very interesting. but how did you calculate them?? how do you know how many balls will be 4 each team?

 

[AL-Canadian]

here are the odds of drawings the 1st overall pick in the 2005 draft lottery, the buffalo sabres, new york rangers, columbus blue jackets and florida panthers all have the best odds at 6.12% chance, if it weren't for the rule that every team would have atleast 1 ball, the islanders would have the least with -1
1 ball has odds of 2.04%
2 balls have the odds of 4.08%
3 balls have the odds of 6.12%

Anaheim 4.08%
Atlanta 4.08%
Boston 2.04%
Buffalo 6.12%
Calgary 4.08%
Carolina 2.04%
Chicago 4.08%
Colorado 2.04%
Columbus 6.12%
Dallas 2.04%
Detroit 2.04%
Edmonton 4.08%
Florida 6.12%
Los Angeles 4.08%
Minnesota 4.08%
Montreal 2.04%
Nashville 4.08%
New Jersey 2.04%
New York Islanders 2.04%
New York Rangers 6.12%
Ottawa 2.04%
Philadelphia 2.04%
Phoenix 4.08%
Pittsburgh 4.08%
San Jose 2.04%
St. Louis 2.04%
Tampa Bay 2.04%
Toronto 2.04%
Vancouver 2.04%
Washington 4.08%

I believe that Florida will only have one ball - 2.04% (if your math is correct). They had won the lottery twice and traded it both times, thus removing 2 balls from their chances.

 

[Potted Plant]

I don't think we're "almost guaranteed" a top 10. If I had access to some good programming and a good bit of time, I would figure it out, but sadly I don't. Don't get too confident here. This could very well end up with the Rangers getting pick #20, Toronto getting pick #5 and Philly getting pick #15.

This is one of those things that could go a lot of different ways. We could come out of this with the #1, the #31, the #32, and the #60, or we could come out of this with something FAR FAR worse.

 

[NYIschremp44]

its not who had the 1st overall pick...it's who had the worst record. Trades and past draft lottery's dont matter

 

[Epsilon]

I would have preferred a 1-30 shot for everyone but this, combined with the snaking, is pretty acceptable.

 

[NYIschremp44]

this is the way i have it as to the way i have understood the process...
islanders loose 1 for the 01 draft
altanta loose 1 for the 02 draft
carolina loose 1 for the 03 draft
pittsburgh loose 1 for the 04 draft

 

[Jeffrey]

this is the way i have it as to the way i have understood the process...
islanders loose 1 for the 01 draft
altanta loose 1 for the 02 draft
carolina loose 1 for the 03 draft
pittsburgh loose 1 for the 04 draft

Nope...
it's
Islanders -1 2000
Atlanta -1 2001
Florida -1 2002
Florida -1 2003
Washington -1 2004

 

[NYIschremp44]

then TSN.ca has it wrong...and even so Islanders wouldn't loose 1 for the 2000 draft...that's too long ago...tsn says the last 4 drafts

 

[al3x]

why do the pens lose that 1 ball?? they didn't win any lottery in the past 4 yrs

 

[Levitate]

then TSN.ca has it wrong...and even so Islanders wouldn't loose 1 for the 2000 draft...that's too long ago...tsn says the last 4 drafts

doesn't really matter...they've made the playoffs the last 3 years or whatever so they only have 1 ball anyways

 

[Nich]

so how

how does florida have all 3 balls....didn't they originally have a #1 pick in the last 4 years?

 

[NYIschremp44]

alright i misread it....if draft lottery counts then this is the odds:

2.08% is 1 ball
4.17% is 2 balls
6.25% is 3 balls

anaheim 4.17%
atlanta 4.17%
boston 2.08%
buffalo 6.25%
calgary 4.17%
carolina 4.17%
chicago 4.17%
colorado 2.08%
columbus 6.25%
dallas 2.08%
detroit 2.08%
edmonton 4.17%
florida 2.08%
los angeles 4.17%
minnesota 4.17%
montreal 2.08%
nashville 4.17%
new jersey 2.08%
new york islanders 2.08%
new york rangers 6.25%
ottawa 2.08%
phildelphia 2.08%
phoenix 4.17%
pittsburgh 6.25%
san jose 2.08%
st. louis 2.08%
tampa bay 2.08%
toronto 2.08%
vancouver 2.08%
washington 2.08%

 

[Bubbles]

I'm going to look at it this way... there's a 16.32% chance that Crosby will land in Canada!

 

[DarthSather99]

I don't think we're "almost guaranteed" a top 10. If I had access to some good programming and a good bit of time, I would figure it out, but sadly I don't. Don't get too confident here. This could very well end up with the Rangers getting pick #20, Toronto getting pick #5 and Philly getting pick #15.

This is one of those things that could go a lot of different ways. We could come out of this with the #1, the #31, the #32, and the #60, or we could come out of this with something FAR FAR worse.

knock yourself out buddy ... enjoy

http://members.shaw.ca/vorpalbunnies/draftsim/

 

[NYIschremp44]

I'm going to look at it this way... there's a 16.32% chance that Crosby will land in Canada!

awesome! that means theres over an 80% chance he'll play in the states

 

[Legionnaire]

Sounds fair enough. I shudder to think what Detroit could do with a late 1st and high second considering what they've been able to do without a first for several drafts.

 

[Potted Plant]

knock yourself out buddy ... enjoy

http://members.shaw.ca/vorpalbunnies/draftsim/

That's great, but what I'd really need to do is run through it about a million times and come up with statistical distributions. I'm sure it could be figured out mathematically through formulas, but I'd rather just run it automatically a million times and figure out where everyone sits.