Snake Lottery Draft

Status
Not open for further replies.

al3x

Registered User
Jul 12, 2005
239
0
Bucharest,Romania
i ran it 3 times and got pit 1st, 2 out of 3!!! also you should modify the years option 'cause the playoffs rule is for the last 3 years while the lottery wining one is for the last 4.
 

Evilo

Registered User
Mar 17, 2002
61,956
8,524
France
JNRhockeyGURU said:
this is the way i have it as to the way i have understood the process...
islanders loose 1 for the 01 draft
altanta loose 1 for the 02 draft
carolina loose 1 for the 03 draft
pittsburgh loose 1 for the 04 draft
Pittsburgh gets 3 balls. They traded for the MA Fleury.
 

PecaFan

Registered User
Nov 16, 2002
9,243
520
Ottawa (Go 'Nucks)
HighlyRegardedRookie said:
That's great, but what I'd really need to do is run through it about a million times and come up with statistical distributions. I'm sure it could be figured out mathematically through formulas, but I'd rather just run it automatically a million times and figure out where everyone sits.

That link was for my original version, which couldn't handle the official scenario. This one does: http://members.shaw.ca/vorpalbunnies/draftsim/official.html

As for running it a million times, you're just going to get the numbers approaching the theoretical draft odds in the first column. Buffalo should win 63,000 of the one million times (6.3%), etc.
 

Checker*

Guest
Any team that traded a 2nd round pick in this draft could be SCREWED. Imagine if that team pulls the 30th ball. They'd pick at 30 and 90 and be done for the 1st 3 rounds.
 

Checker*

Guest
al3x said:
do you know any team that did this ?? if so tell me pls

Calgary is the only one that springs to mind from the Kiprusoff trade.

I'm pretty sure Phoenix traded theirs too in the Colorado deal.
 

Checker*

Guest
Chief said:
The Rangers have the Flyers' and Leafs' second round picks.
There'd be a lot of happy Ranger fans if they managed to win the Crosby sweepstakes and then pick again at 31, 32, and 60(best case scenario)
 

borro

Registered User
Oct 8, 2002
3,141
0
Texas
Visit site
Checker said:
There'd be a lot of happy Ranger fans if they managed to win the Crosby sweepstakes and then pick again at 31, 32, and 60(best case scenario)

Rich teams...Hey all these poor teams stuck it to us with cost certainty and limiting what we can spend. How can we get them back?

Another Rich team: I know lets suggest every one get a shot at Crosby! All the rich teams for say aye.

Later in meetings...It's not enough just to stick it to poor teams and take their draft choices. We might not win the balls...Therfore lets give the teams we want to win the most balls. Let's see how could we do this....

Still later in meetings: These poor teams are just getting everything we need to get better players than theam. Lets suggest a Snake draft. This way the "have's" guarantee themselves either a better player or higher choices

Other Rich team: You're a real Beelzebub...

Weak Teams: Finally a statement we agree on.
 

thestonedkoala

Going Dark
Aug 27, 2004
28,169
1,600
Terrible idea IMO...

They basically screw the hell out of any team drafting in the upper teens (11, 12, 13, 14)...

I mean come on! They basically lose out on top 10 talent and now they lose out on the top 30-40 talent in the second round?

I'd say, whoever gets a top 5 pick, gets bumped down to the end and everyone moves up.
 

Legionnaire

Help On The Way
Jul 10, 2002
44,254
3,965
LA-LA Land
Cry me a river. You got Ovechkin last year, after years of having a high payroll and making the playoffs. This while teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Minnesota, actually compete to make the playoffs even though they didn't have half the finances.

Don't blame the draft outcome blame your management.
 

habsfansam

Registered User
Jul 22, 2003
660
0
Somewhere dark...?
phaneuf_fan_3 said:
Ok so im not that fond of the bad teams only getting 3 balls in the draft to start with....having it be a snake draft where the team that picks 30th getting to pick 31st and so on is a horrendous idea.

Although it may be ok for the team who gets Crosby....the team who ends up choosing 2nd does not get a chance to choose again until 59th.

The idea of weighting the draft with 3 balls for bad teams instead of 1 ball for better teams goes right out the window with the snake draft~

What are others thoughts on this.

With the soon-to-be free agent free-for-all, I can't imagine why they even bothered to weight the draft. If the likelihood is that at least 50% of the opening day roster for most teams will be different from the end of the 2003-04 season how can one justify giving one team an advantage over another team? It's not like having a better record previously has earned those teams more time to hunt for free-agents!

In reality, teams with poorer records that have drafted wisely come out ahead of successful teams... not only do these bad teams get to retain their high draft picks (prospects) from previous years and enter free agency on a level financial playing field, but now they get a better chance than another team at landing yet another high draft pick. You look at a team like Montreal that by merit of squeaking into the playoffs in the past few years has managed to put itself in a worse position than a team like Buffalo that was only a few points behind them in the last season and that arguably is in an equivalent position player-wise headed into this season. How is it fair that one of these two near-equal teams ends up with 3 times the chance of picking higher? It isn't.

I agree that the snake draft isn't my preferred method... but since we don't have anything else to base draft order on (surely we can't argue that every round should have the same order as the first round, and we probably wouldn't agree to pick random lotto balls for each round'a order) it at least ensures that each team picks, on average, around the 15th selection of the round.

I don't feel bad for the team picking 1st because they get 3 picks in the top 61, while the team selecting 30th get 3 picks in the first 90 selections...
 

Puckhead

Registered User
Jun 13, 2004
703
0
Behind you!!!
JNRhockeyGURU said:
here are the odds of drawings the 1st overall pick in the 2005 draft lottery, the buffalo sabres, new york rangers, columbus blue jackets and florida panthers all have the best odds at 6.12% chance, if it weren't for the rule that every team would have atleast 1 ball, the islanders would have the least with -1 :)
1 ball has odds of 2.04%
2 balls have the odds of 4.08%
3 balls have the odds of 6.12%

Anaheim 4.08%
Atlanta 4.08%
Boston 2.04%
Buffalo 6.12%
Calgary 4.08%
Carolina 2.04%
Chicago 4.08%
Colorado 2.04%
Columbus 6.12%
Dallas 2.04%
Detroit 2.04%
Edmonton 4.08%
Florida 6.12%
Los Angeles 4.08%
Minnesota 4.08%
Montreal 2.04%
Nashville 4.08%
New Jersey 2.04%
New York Islanders 2.04%
New York Rangers 6.12%
Ottawa 2.04%
Philadelphia 2.04%
Phoenix 4.08%
Pittsburgh 4.08%
San Jose 2.04%
St. Louis 2.04%
Tampa Bay 2.04%
Toronto 2.04%
Vancouver 2.04%
Washington 4.08%
Am I the only one who hates the idea of rewarding the sad sack teams who not only did nothing to improve their teams, but in most cases quite obviously gave away what little talent they had. With the exception of the NYR who not only couldn't make the playoffs, but haven't drafted well either. All of these bottom feeders have already been rewarded with good draft picks so why should they get a better chance at Crosby then teams who have tried to win? Isn't that the point to playing...to win?

I think it makes perfect sense to give all 30 teams an equal shot at Crosby and the others and that would not only be the fairest way to go about it, but it would give the NHL a lot of press right across North America if each team had an equal shot at "Sid the Kid".

Columbus - Nash and Zherdev = 3 balls
Buffalo - Vanek = 3 balls
Florida - Bouwmeester, Horton = 3 balls
NY Rangers - Montoya = 3 balls
Washington - Ovechkin = 2 balls
Pittsburgh - Malkin, Fleury = 2 balls
Chicago - Ruutu, Barker = 2 balls
Atlanta - Heatley, Kovalchuk, Coburn, Lehtonen = 1 ball

The only team I really don't have a problem with in this list is Buffalo, and trust me I am not a Sabre fan. They have just had some bad luck and really have not lucked out the way the others have. Although it would be mighty scary if Atlanta's 1 ball gets lucky.
 
Last edited:

Puckhead

Registered User
Jun 13, 2004
703
0
Behind you!!!
Legionnaire said:
Cry me a river. You got Ovechkin last year, after years of having a high payroll and making the playoffs. This while teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Minnesota, actually compete to make the playoffs even though they didn't have half the finances.

Don't blame the draft outcome blame your management.
Very well said!!! :yo:
 

jjmcgo

Registered User
Jun 27, 2005
11
0
In almost any pool of draftees there are a limited number of superstars who can be relied upon to put up good numbers. After that, it doesn't much matter whether you pick 11th or 24th, it's a crap shoot as to who will mature first and deliver.
So, a snake draft doesn't do much for the teams at the turn. I'd rather have No. 1 and No. 60 than Nos. 30 and 31.
We use a snake draft in our fantasy-baseball league and the guy who picks at the turn usually finishes out of the top three.
 

pensrule

Registered User
Jul 13, 2005
139
0
Hampton, PA
JNRhockeyGURU said:
this is the way i have it as to the way i have understood the process...
islanders loose 1 for the 01 draft
altanta loose 1 for the 02 draft
carolina loose 1 for the 03 draft
pittsburgh loose 1 for the 04 draft

That's not right. Pitts doesn't lose any balls, they got that pick from FLA. FLA loses the ball.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->