DaveMatthew
Bring in Peter
Yes. I'm excited about how some of these young guys have started, and see tons of promise in Tkachuk, Chabot and Lajoie. Tkachuk and Chabot are would be top-notch building blocks on any team.
But, if you look at the underlying numbers, there's plenty of reason to hold reign the excitement in:
Shot attempts
• We're 29th in the league in 5v5 shot differential, having allowed 83 more shots than we've taken.
• Even when we're trailing, the other team takes the game to us. When behind, we're 28th in the league in shot differential.
• When we're ahead, we still sit back and hope for the best. When leading the game, we're 31st in the league in shot differential.
Shot percentages
• We're leading the league in 5v5 shot percentage (13% of our shots go in). Compare this to a team like Toronto: they score on 11.7% of their 5v5 shots - with significantly more talent, or Nashville, who score on 9.7% of their shots.
• We're 14th in the league in 5V5 SV% (.918)
Puck control
• Only 3 of our players have a positive CORSI and control the puck more than they chase it (Tkachuk, Stone and Smith). An expected top team like the Leafs have 10 players with a positive CORSI.
All of this speaks to a start that is unsustainable, and they're the metrics that our management team (not fans) should be using to evaluate the season-long success prospects of this roster. We didn't last offseason, when we thought an "everything-went-perfect" playoff run made us a true contender as opposed to being the bubble playoff team that we were. Let's hope they don't make the same mistakes now.
But, if you look at the underlying numbers, there's plenty of reason to hold reign the excitement in:
Shot attempts
• We're 29th in the league in 5v5 shot differential, having allowed 83 more shots than we've taken.
• Even when we're trailing, the other team takes the game to us. When behind, we're 28th in the league in shot differential.
• When we're ahead, we still sit back and hope for the best. When leading the game, we're 31st in the league in shot differential.
Shot percentages
• We're leading the league in 5v5 shot percentage (13% of our shots go in). Compare this to a team like Toronto: they score on 11.7% of their 5v5 shots - with significantly more talent, or Nashville, who score on 9.7% of their shots.
• We're 14th in the league in 5V5 SV% (.918)
Puck control
• Only 3 of our players have a positive CORSI and control the puck more than they chase it (Tkachuk, Stone and Smith). An expected top team like the Leafs have 10 players with a positive CORSI.
All of this speaks to a start that is unsustainable, and they're the metrics that our management team (not fans) should be using to evaluate the season-long success prospects of this roster. We didn't last offseason, when we thought an "everything-went-perfect" playoff run made us a true contender as opposed to being the bubble playoff team that we were. Let's hope they don't make the same mistakes now.