Should we be worried about shots against?

[DaveMatthew]

Yes. I'm excited about how some of these young guys have started, and see tons of promise in Tkachuk, Chabot and Lajoie. Tkachuk and Chabot are would be top-notch building blocks on any team.

But, if you look at the underlying numbers, there's plenty of reason to hold reign the excitement in:

Shot attempts
• We're 29th in the league in 5v5 shot differential, having allowed 83 more shots than we've taken.
• Even when we're trailing, the other team takes the game to us. When behind, we're 28th in the league in shot differential.
• When we're ahead, we still sit back and hope for the best. When leading the game, we're 31st in the league in shot differential.

Shot percentages
• We're leading the league in 5v5 shot percentage (13% of our shots go in). Compare this to a team like Toronto: they score on 11.7% of their 5v5 shots - with significantly more talent, or Nashville, who score on 9.7% of their shots.
• We're 14th in the league in 5V5 SV% (.918)

Puck control
• Only 3 of our players have a positive CORSI and control the puck more than they chase it (Tkachuk, Stone and Smith). An expected top team like the Leafs have 10 players with a positive CORSI.

All of this speaks to a start that is unsustainable, and they're the metrics that our management team (not fans) should be using to evaluate the season-long success prospects of this roster. We didn't last offseason, when we thought an "everything-went-perfect" playoff run made us a true contender as opposed to being the bubble playoff team that we were. Let's hope they don't make the same mistakes now.

 

[NyQuil]

Assistant coach of the Penguins since 2013.

Riiiight.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

All that rubber that tender old Anderson will see will be bad on those knees.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Yes. I'm excited about how some of these young guys have started, and see tons of promise in Tkachuk, Chabot and Lajoie. Tkachuk and Chabot are would be top-notch building blocks on any team.

But, if you look at the underlying numbers, there's plenty of reason to hold reign the excitement in:

Shot attempts
• We're 29th in the league in 5v5 shot differential, having allowed 83 more shots than we've taken.
• Even when we're trailing, the other team takes the game to us. When behind, we're 28th in the league in shot differential.
• When we're ahead, we still sit back and hope for the best. When leading the game, we're 31st in the league in shot differential.

Shot percentages
• We're leading the league in 5v5 shot percentage (13% of our shots go in). Compare this to a team like Toronto: they score on 11.7% of their 5v5 shots - with significantly more talent, or Nashville, who score on 9.7% of their shots.
• We're 14th in the league in 5V5 SV% (.918)

Puck control
• Only 3 of our players have a positive CORSI and control the puck more than they chase it (Tkachuk, Stone and Smith). An expected top team like the Leafs have 10 players with a positive CORSI.

All of this speaks to a start that is unsustainable, and they're the metrics that our management team (not fans) should be using to evaluate the season-long success prospects of this roster. We didn't last offseason, when we thought an "everything-went-perfect" playoff run made us a true contender as opposed to being the bubble playoff team that we were. Let's hope they don't make the same mistakes now.

Nah, time to abandon the rebuild and go all in.

2020 1st for a rental?

 

[Sun God Nika]

I would be more worried that my gm just traded a generational talent personally

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I am.

In a vacuum it wouldn't be an issue but it is a long trend now and we haven't had much success (yes yes one epic and awesome playoff run) ever since we went run and gun under MacLean.

 

[SensFactor]

Muhammad Ali made the tactic famous. ROPE-A-DOPE. Let your opponents tire and counterattack the crap out of em.

 

[DanyHeatley]

i made a speculation thread about this. anderson is an absolute beast and the record proves it, when he faces high volume shots

 

[swiftwin]

I am.

In a vacuum it wouldn't be an issue but it is a long trend now and we haven't had much success (yes yes one epic and awesome playoff run) ever since we went run and gun under MacLean.

I looked it up

Under Maclean, we were the 2nd worst team in shots against
Under Cameron, we were the 4th worst
Under Boucher, we're 11th worst

 

[danielpalfredsson]

i made a speculation thread about this. anderson is an absolute beast and the record proves it, when he faces high volume shots

Anderson is going to be our MVP this season.

I had been saying this in the summer, that anyone saying he was done wasn't watching close enough. He had a huge chunk of star performances in 2018, he just had so many putrid performances that they negated those big games he had. It was a consistency issue with Anderson last year, not a physical decline. Any goalie who was done would not have had as many .920+ games as Anderson had in 2018.

I think a combination of our deep run in 2017, his wife's health, and the general locker room drama probably contributed to the guy being exhausted and inconsistent in 17-18. Combine that with the terrible play by the team in front of him, it is not surprising to me that he will bounce back this season if he is re-energized and playing behind a more predictable consistent defense that isn't hanging him out to dry with high danger chances.

 

[swiftwin]

Anderson is going to be our MVP this season.

I had been saying this in the summer, that anyone saying he was done wasn't watching close enough. He had a huge chunk of star performances in 2018, he just had so many putrid performances that they negated those big games he had. It was a consistency issue with Anderson last year, not a physical decline. Any goalie who was done would not have had as many .920+ games as Anderson had in 2018.

I think a combination of our deep run in 2017, his wife's health, and the general locker room drama probably contributed to the guy being exhausted and inconsistent in 17-18. Combine that with the terrible play by the team in front of him, it is not surprising to me that he will bounce back this season if he is re-energized and playing behind a more predictable consistent defense that isn't hanging him out to dry with high danger chances.

I can get behind this. Anderson is not a typical butterfly goalie that plays the odds. He gets by on reading plays, and tracking the puck very well. If the team is an unpredictable mess defensively, and locker room drama is affecting team performance on the ice, it will affect Anderson. But if the team plays consistently and forces low % shots from the outside, even if they allow alot of them, Andy is excellent and tracking the puck and always being in the right spot.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Muhammad Ali made the tactic famous. ROPE-A-DOPE. Let your opponents tire and counterattack the crap out of em.

As a fight fan I can tell you playing the defensive in hockey is insanely worse then waiting for counter punches in boxing

 

[aragorn]

I just think they are a young team & as the season wears on they should get a little better defensively. It's one of those things that if they work too much at being defensive minded than that could take away from the offence at this time. Better I think to gradually get them to be a little more defensive minded each game without thwarting the offensive production we are seeing at this time. I think it will come but of course goaltending will be the key, Anderson has been playing fairly well so far this yr whereas Condon not so much just yet. Ottawa will need superior goaltending all season long to have a shot at a playoff spot & both will need to be good but I like what I'm seeing from this team so far this yr.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Muhammad Ali made the tactic famous. ROPE-A-DOPE. Let your opponents tire and counterattack the crap out of em.

Good strategy! Skating around chasing the puck requires no energy!

 

[DanyHeatley]

Anderson is going to be our MVP this season.

I had been saying this in the summer, that anyone saying he was done wasn't watching close enough. He had a huge chunk of star performances in 2018, he just had so many putrid performances that they negated those big games he had. It was a consistency issue with Anderson last year, not a physical decline. Any goalie who was done would not have had as many .920+ games as Anderson had in 2018.

I think a combination of our deep run in 2017, his wife's health, and the general locker room drama probably contributed to the guy being exhausted and inconsistent in 17-18. Combine that with the terrible play by the team in front of him, it is not surprising to me that he will bounce back this season if he is re-energized and playing behind a more predictable consistent defense that isn't hanging him out to dry with high danger chances.

Anderson gets cold when we make the game easy for him, but strives when he has to save the team. definitely not a Brodeur 20 shot snooze fest goalie. he likes to get hammered with shots

 

[solidprospect]

Shot location is important as others have mentioned. What about the teams we're playing against, we haven't faced many teams that would have been grouped in our tier before this season started. We could face less shots against them if worried about totals shots.

 

[Egg]

We're keeping shots to the outside:

Last year, we didn't do that:

In 2016-17, we DID do that:

Exactly.

Anderson stops perimeter shots, all day. He could be lit up with 30-40 shots per game, it won't matter. What matters, are the quality of the shots. Look at Anderson with Colorado. He faced the same type of music, initially in his tenure there. Inexperienced team, and getting lit up with shots. Look at his numbers.

Hasek in his prime looked like a god, but his team was good at keeping the shot quality low, and shot quantity high.

This means, Anderson only needs to be square, and limit bad rebounds, and he'll be fine.

Your team plays with an immense swagger, when they know they'll get the key stops, and just have to clear the rebounds.

It improves your team, tenfold.

This is a young team. It will only get better, and tighten up on defense as the season grows.

I'm not in the least bit worried. I'm actually excited.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Exactly.

Anderson stops perimeter shots, all day. He could be lit up with 30-40 shots per game, it won't matter. What matters, are the quality of the shots. Look at Anderson with Colorado. He faced the same type of music, initially in his tenure there. Inexperienced team, and getting lit up with shots. Look at his numbers.

Hasek in his prime looked like a god, but his team was good at keeping the shot quality low, and shot quantity high.

This means, Anderson only needs to be square, and limit bad rebounds, and he'll be fine.

Your team plays with an immense swagger, when they know they'll get the key stops, and just have to clear the rebounds.

It improves your team, tenfold.

This is a young team. It will only get better, and tighten up on defense as the season grows.

I'm not in the least bit worried. I'm actually excited.

Ottawa has given up the 3rd most scoring chances in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick - Glossary. I wouldn't say they're low quality shots.

Anderson has been good and we've taken advantage of opportunistic scoring. Is it sustainable? Probably not, but we'll see.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Anderson can be this year's Fleury.
Chabot definitely looks like a Nate Schmidt.
LaJoie is this year's Shea Theodore?
DeMelo is very like Colin Miller in the way he steps up in the o-zone.
Boro will crunch some guys like Engelland did last year.


Can Ryan-Duchene-Boedker be this year's Smith-Karlsson-Marchessault line?
Can Tkachuk-Tierney-Stone be a stronger version of Tuch-Haula-Neal?

Vegas 2.0?

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Vegas gave up a good amount of shots last year too but Fleury was able to kick out long rebounds to start the transition the other way. The transition game may become key to the success of the Sens too.

 

[swiftwin]

Ottawa has given up the 3rd most scoring chances in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick - Glossary. I wouldn't say they're low quality shots.

Anderson has been good and we've taken advantage of opportunistic scoring. Is it sustainable? Probably not, but we'll see.

Well, that's just silly. We've played more games than most teams. The Leafs are #1 in scoring chances against and they're first.

 

[JD1]

Yes. I'm excited about how some of these young guys have started, and see tons of promise in Tkachuk, Chabot and Lajoie. Tkachuk and Chabot are would be top-notch building blocks on any team.

But, if you look at the underlying numbers, there's plenty of reason to hold reign the excitement in:

Shot attempts
• We're 29th in the league in 5v5 shot differential, having allowed 83 more shots than we've taken.
• Even when we're trailing, the other team takes the game to us. When behind, we're 28th in the league in shot differential.
• When we're ahead, we still sit back and hope for the best. When leading the game, we're 31st in the league in shot differential.

Shot percentages
• We're leading the league in 5v5 shot percentage (13% of our shots go in). Compare this to a team like Toronto: they score on 11.7% of their 5v5 shots - with significantly more talent, or Nashville, who score on 9.7% of their shots.
• We're 14th in the league in 5V5 SV% (.918)

Puck control
• Only 3 of our players have a positive CORSI and control the puck more than they chase it (Tkachuk, Stone and Smith). An expected top team like the Leafs have 10 players with a positive CORSI.

All of this speaks to a start that is unsustainable, and they're the metrics that our management team (not fans) should be using to evaluate the season-long success prospects of this roster. We didn't last offseason, when we thought an "everything-went-perfect" playoff run made us a true contender as opposed to being the bubble playoff team that we were. Let's hope they don't make the same mistakes now.

what's truly unsustainable is the quality of opposition

I'm sure your numbers are all perfectly correct but we've had a run of pretty strong opposition and that eventually balances out. Give it 20 games and a run of easier opposition and see how things look then.

last 2 games we've won 9-2 combined. one against a heavy hard team, the other against a team with an elite top line. both games had score effect corsi

 

[swiftwin]

what's truly unsustainable is the quality of opposition

I'm sure your numbers are all perfectly correct but we've had a run of pretty strong opposition and that eventually balances out. Give it 20 games and a run of easier opposition and see how things look then.

last 2 games we've won 9-2 combined. one against a heavy hard team, the other against a team with an elite top line. both games had score effect corsi

Yup, even the Leafs were heavily outshot by the Kings. The Kings always just throw everything on net. 6 games is not enough to start worrying about these metrics.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Muhammad Ali made the tactic famous. ROPE-A-DOPE. Let your opponents tire and counterattack the crap out of em.

Better tired than getting worn down over a season due to shot blocking.

Karlsson’s skating may never be the same because of that block against Philly.

Sure blocking shots will always be there and there will always be injuries, but having a system that increases the risks is horrible long-term, especially in a time when speed is so important.

 

[Danythegod]

Not if you have Andy in fantasy hockey with saves as a category