Should the Wings go "defense heavy" later in the draft?

[MBH]

The Athletic has a pretty interesting article about why teams should game on defense in later rounds.
Why NHL teams should gamble on defencemen over forwards...

The 1-2-3-4-5-6 is team defensemen ranked by icetime.
What's interesting is that beyond the #1 defenseman, it gets really close between top 31 and 32-100.
You don't see that dynamic until you get to the 5th place forward - and that seems like an outlier.

here's the same for forwards.

Goalies are even crazier.

I was already planning on taking a forward in the top 4 and probably the best defenseman at 32.
But maybe I'd consider taking 3-4 defenseman in that 32-100 range.

Click to read more...

 

[FabricDetails]

Interesting stuff.

Teams probably have this in mind in consideration for the 2021 draft. Isn't that supposed to be rich with dmen prospects within the first round?

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

I suppose these numbers are a result of the fact that defensemen typically enter the league after a couple more years of development than forwards, so that makes them more of a crap shoot, generally, then forwards.

So yeah, I can see the point to taking defensemen later than forwards, just as they take goalies later than everyone else. Goalie is even more of a guessing game. I guess this would be true in most drafts. I've never seen it spelled out as clearly as it is here, though.

But in this draft, I'd rather see us pick up the number one defenseman. I watched some video of Drysdale someone posted here a few weeks ago, and I'm sold. I'm hoping we get the number one pick, trade that and whatever else it takes to Ottawa for their 2 first rounders, and get Drysdale and another top 5 guy. And it's your fault that I'm now hoping for such an unlikely outcome, MBH -- you posted that link to that draft simulator that allowed trades last week and I sat there playing GM for hours. Stutzle + Drysdale > Lafreniere. Stutzle + Drysdale > Byfield.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Interesting stuff.

Teams probably have this in mind in consideration for the 2021 draft. Isn't that supposed to be rich with dmen prospects within the first round?

21 is supposed to be a very deep defensive draft with several top end talents.

When you throw out goalies, the biggest percentage gap here is between drafting a forward in the first round and d-man... Not surprised most teams you hear talk about leaning forward in the first round if you can. It is more than the percentage combined that D-man own over forwards in the later rounds of this exercise.

But I think we should go BPA.

 

[Frk It]

Needs to be a case by case approach, and I do not think this draft is the year to do it.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I feel like this is correlation, not causation.

Like defensemen tend to take longer to develop to be top players or even useful players than forwards. Drafts are all independent beasts based on the players who are available. Like in 2018, I'm sure Detroit wanted a defenseman in the first round... but Zadina fell to 6 and Veleno fell to 30.

You're not more likely to get a better defenseman 32-100 or whatever. Teams have obviously tended to generally favor forwards earlier than defensemen because forwards early give more bang for the buck. Think about it in terms of fantasy sports. Like in football, you could take Patrick Mahomes with the first OA pick in the draft and you'd have one of the highest scoring players in your league. But then when RBs or WRs come around, other teams will have snapped up the really good options and you're left with much weaker choices.

Teams favor forwards early because they tend to be more projectable as top end players. Teams favor forwards and defense over goalies because who the **** knows with those nutjobs how they'll perform when they hit the league. Obviously you have some players who break that paradigm (Carey Price, MAF).

This is a bit of analysis that seems a lot more telling than it actually is.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Yes.

More you pick in the later rounds, the more you can hit.

Better have some good scouts though.

 

[MBH]

How it relates to this draft?
Not sure. At 32, or any position, really, if there's a guy you really love, you take him.

But when I see this:
54
58
63
65
I see room for 2-3 defensemen for sure.

Unfortunately, it does look like more of the D I like are righthanded.
But here are some of the D I'd take at 50 or lower
Anton Johanesson
Alex Cotton
Tyler Kleven
Lukas Cormier
Justin Barron
Brock Faber
Joni Jurmo
Alex Nikishin
Ian Moore
Eamon Powell
Topi Niemela

 

[Killerjas]

How it relates to this draft?
Not sure. At 32, or any position, really, if there's a guy you really love, you take him.

But when I see this:
54
58
63
65
I see room for 2-3 defensemen for sure.

Unfortunately, it does look like more of the D I like are righthanded.
But here are some of the D I'd take at 50 or lower
Anton Johanesson
Alex Cotton
Tyler Kleven
Lukas Cormier
Justin Barron
Brock Faber
Joni Jurmo
Alex Nikishin
Ian Moore
Eamon Powell
Topi Niemela

Dont forget Knazko in the 2nd round.

 

[Hockeyfannnn91]

Id say were looking pretty solid at d right now , obviously we never know what they’ll turn into but i like that we have seider,hronek now as well as lindstrom,cholowski,mcisaac,tuomisto,johansson and whoever else we might have that might surprise us

If teams get scared of taking lapierre first round cause of his injury history i can see us taking him or another forward who drops to 32, no problem taking the best player available whether it be a forward or dmen but we also need to find star forwards so id be dissapointed if we picked 5d’s with picks 32-65

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

The lesson isn't that the Wings should go defense heavy later in the draft, the lesson would be that the Wings should take someone like Raymond or Perfetti over someone like Drysdale early in the first round because the defensemen available later are closer to Drysdale than the later forwards are to Raymond or Perfetti. This isn't exactly earth shattering and people have made this observation for years. I will leave it to you to decide how true it is.

Note though that if you are looking for a number one defensemen, the first round is still the place to be. Consequently, I am not sure the strategy truly holds up when you are talking about really high-end defensive prospects.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

It doesn't.

This is analysis that is entirely correlating an activity with a result. You draft defense heavy in later rounds if the guys on the board when you pick that you rate the highest are defensemen. Going into a draft saying "we are going to draft this position here or lean heavily into this position in this round" limits your scope and you stand a chance of missing on a pick because you are biasing yourself towards, in this case, a defenseman.

Like the 2018 draft as I had stated. Detroit and Holland wanted defensemen in the first round and pretty badly, I think. But pick six came and Zadina was there. He was the top guy left on their board and they took him while there were four different D they could have taken. Then at pick 30, Veleno had dropped from being projected as a mid first round pick to that pick. You adjust your board as the draft goes along. If you happen to draft defense heavy in 32-100? Cool, that implies that you thought the value was there for defensemen. But if you go in thinking and holding to "I'm going to take all defensemen with these picks", you're playing yourself.

 

[Frk It]

Intrigued by this kid:

Avery Winslow - Defense - North Bay Battalion
If there is one player who was hurt most by the abrupt ending to the OHL season, it may have been Winslow. The Battalion were playing some great hockey and Winslow was looking extremely comfortable following a deal from London at the deadline. He had 9 points in 12 games with North Bay and was seeing considerable ice time in all situations. While it doesn't seem like a lot, those final few games could have given scouts another chance to see him one or two more times. As such, the sample size is just so small and that's why I've got him outside my top 50. But the defender we saw in those games with North Bay was a top 30 ranked OHL'er and not an HM. Another curious thing about Winslow is that he's one of the youngest players eligible this year with a late August birth date. He still has some physical maturation to undergo. At the heart of Winslow's effectiveness is his skating ability. He has a very smooth and effortless stride that allows him to be an aggressive puck mover. But he also showed well in his own zone in North Bay, even if he needs to get stronger to be more effective along the wall and near the crease. This is a kid to REALLY keep an eye on next year when North Bay will be an improved team and he increases his confidence.

Avery Winslow at eliteprospects.com

OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft - Part 2: 31-50

 

[Frk It]

Also Jamie Langenbrunner's son, poor kid missed the cutoff for next year's draft by 1 day.

Mason Langenbrunner at eliteprospects.com

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This draft I'm all for picking the best forwards available because it's very light on defenseman in the top 40. Next year is a very defense heavy draft with about 5 guys ranked in the top 10-12 prospects.
Brandt Clarke looks to be a cornerstone franchise defenseman in the mold of Erik Karlsson. Owen Power has Pronger potential. Luke Hughes could turn some heads and become a top 5 pick. There are a lot of guys who are expected to go 20 to 45 with a lot of potential. If anything, I wouldn't be butt hurt if the Wings worked out a way to swap some of their 2nds this year for useful players/cap dumps and 2nds next year instead.

 

[Retire91]

I think if you just stick with BPA mentality throughout the draft every draft it balances out and you don't end up with huge holes in your organization (assuming you draft at least average)

If you draft BPA then if you end up with a hole you theoretically have a surplus you can trade from to fill the hole. I think if you chase positions you end up missing BPA and then if your picks don't hit its like a double edged sword because you passed on pieces you could have used for trade bait.

I think Yzerman went a little off board with his first pick but I can understand why because of the gaping hole at D that the last front office left and that pick became less and less off board once it was looked into more closely.

 

[MBH]

Also Jamie Langenbrunner's son, poor kid missed the cutoff for next year's draft by 1 day.

Mason Langenbrunner at eliteprospects.com

Langenbrunner was a gamer and so smart.
His son has the size. Can't imagine he doesn't have the IQ. Wonder about the skating.

 

[Henkka]

Rami Määttä is very interesting defensive prospect in Finnish junior league. Played for Ässät Pori juniors, like Tuomisto. I think it could have been a defensive pair for Ässät.

Määttä is small-sized 5'10 left handed guy (like Tuomisto proably was a perfect partner for him, big-sized RhD)

Finnish Hockey Website Jatkoaika.com did a hand-made study about Defensive Zone Exits and Shots Attempts/Passes for Shot attempts, and CorsiFor%.

Määttä excelled especially in Zone exits and also CorsiFor% as the best draft-eligible defenceman in Finnish U20 league. Didn't see Tuomisto's stats, maybe they were a pair and he excelled thanks to also that (Tuomisto being so good). But I wouldn't be surpriced, if our scouts have been watching Tuomisto again, and also noticed how good Määttä is. Määttä was rarely ranked in the Top200 list, so I think he could be available with our 6th-7th rounder.

Ennennäkemätön käsityödata perkaa Suomen NHL-lupauksia – HIFK:sta lähtenyt Brad Lambert ja Tapparan Kasper Simontaival ovat nuorten liigan timantit

Here is the Article, in Finnish, but the graph texts are in english, so those are understandable.

Also 2022 possible NHL 1st overall Brad Lambert (nephew of that NYI assistant coach and former Wings 2nd pick Lane Lambert) looked very good on that data. Natural right playmaking center. That's the guy we should win the lottery for in 2022. Center, right handness, defensively responsible Elite playmaker. Maybe "adam oates" or "steveyzerman". He would fix all the holes we have.

Next season Lambert goes to play to JYP Jyväskylä. He should play in Men's level, as 16-year old. That hasn't happened since Laine or Barkov.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Hugo Styf is a guy that intrigue me. His profile has him described as a 'hard hitting puck rusher' and once Wallinder was promoted to SHL Styf was given a lot more icetime and responsibility. Not huge at 6'1" 188lbs, but could be a good value pick in the 3rd round if available.

Maximillian Glotzl is another one that could be a feel good story and value pick late in the draft. Very good stats in the DEL U20 (31gp, 4g, 24a) and was solid, if unspectacular when paired with Seider at the WJC20 this year. He's a pretty good skater from what I saw at the WJC and his scouting report says he is also a pretty good passer as well.

 

[Shaman464]

I'd go goalie heavy just based on your data. Seems you're as likely to strike gold drafting a goalie 4th round or later as you are drafting them first round.

 

[MBH]

Hugo Styf is a guy that intrigue me. His profile has him described as a 'hard hitting puck rusher' and once Wallinder was promoted to SHL Styf was given a lot more icetime and responsibility. Not huge at 6'1" 188lbs, but could be a good value pick in the 3rd round if available.

Maximillian Glotzl is another one that could be a feel good story and value pick late in the draft. Very good stats in the DEL U20 (31gp, 4g, 24a) and was solid, if unspectacular when paired with Seider at the WJC20 this year. He's a pretty good skater from what I saw at the WJC and his scouting report says he is also a pretty good passer as well.

LOL.
Locker room name: Huge Stiffy

 

[Frk It]

Late round fliers I would look at:
Jacob Dion at eliteprospects.com
Jacob Truscott at eliteprospects.com
Declan Carlile at eliteprospects.com

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Not necessarily, good combo of C&Ds.


#60 overall.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

AJ

 

[Mijatovic]

This draft I'm all for picking the best forwards available because it's very light on defenseman in the top 40.

Please. People dont even get this years draft remotely right and you are predicting next years draft?