Should the Jets go after any UFA FWDs?

WPGChief

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It's never really been mentioned by any Jets fans, nor is it entirely supported as the Jets traded down in the Expansion Draft to lose only Thorburn (when many expected to lose Dano), but when there's any opportunity to make the team better, it should always be looked at - and with the UFA FWD market, unlike the UFA D market, there are some interesting names out there that could help boost a lineup, especially when you look outside of the Jets top 6 (Wheeler, Schiefele, Laine, Ehlers, Little, Perreault).

Plus I made charts and want to show them off.

Top 1 - 60 FWDs, separated by groups of 20:
hZpD019.png


YIAr6o8.png


HmOVOhe.png


Bottom 20 (ranked 88 - 107 FWDs):
RvF7XbD.png



Hanzal and Bonino are fortunate to be the only top centres on the market at the age of ~30, and are probably gonna be paid big time though they are realistically at best 3Cs who can slot up into a 2C role comfortably.

If the Jets were to add a FWD this offseason, it would likely be someone in a 3C/4C role and pushing Copp to a wing, where he has seen a lot of success in recent memory. In another thread, someone mentioned that Gagner could be a sneaky grab for the Jets as a 3C and force Lowry as a 4C, but as we see here, half of his GAR came on that very dominant CBJ power play (in the beginning), and his EVD metric was pretty bad.

My eyes first went to Josefson on the first chart, who has spent a plethora of time being injured on an usually bad NJD team, has a very strong EVD metric, but not really anything else. Looking elsewhere, his RelCF% is a rollercoaster of going between -5% and +5%.


I know this is heavily unlikely to happen (the obvious addition is goaltender (which seems to be Elliott) and many of us hope that a LHD is close as well), but it was worth looking at from a GAR perspective. In my very honest opinion, I think this is yet another year to stay away from the highly sought after free agents, but could add decent depth - though I envision the Jets hope that one or two AHLers draw into the lineup next season (Connor, Lemieux). What are your guys thoughts?
 

Zhamnov5GoalGame

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I think it is very unlikely that we add a forward unless someone just really falls into their lap that they really like. Matthias is already that extra guy hanging around potentially blocking their own prospects.

Lemieux will have to have an amazing camp to get a sniff at the Jets opening night roster.
 

10Ducky10

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Chevy said shortly after the season ended for the Jets that he might be looking for some help on the PK but he didn't mention which position. I assumed forward.
 

Sixty Minute Man

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I've liked the idea of adding PA Parenteau to our 4th line. I think he'd give the PK a real boost. Non of our youth should be stuck on the 4th line anyway and if he pushes Matthias to the press box, then so be it.
 

KingBogo

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I think it is fairly likely they add a veteran forward. We are still very young in the bottom 6. Change out Thor with an upgrade vet that is a good PK and face-off guy.
 

GJF

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I'm a big fan of Sharp. Used to be one of my favorite NHL players outside of Winnipeg.

Please <3




(yes guys, I know he's kind of done and doesn't make much sense for us and probably wouldn't wanna come home anyway)
 
Last edited:

surixon

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I would like to add a vet forward who can PK and contribute more offense than we have historically received from the bottom 6. I wouldn't be looking to pay much for it though.
 

ffh

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I always thought they would get 1 or 2 4th liners in fa or trade that can kill penalties . 2 of them and copp mathias for 4th line and the extra player being the 13f. no roslovic till next year.
 

Whileee

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I don't think the Jets need any more forward depth, especially after hanging on to Dano in the XD.
 

BB88

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Jan 19, 2015
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Unless it's a good 4th liner there's no space.

Ehlers- Scheifele- Laine
Connor-Little- Wheeler
Perreault- Lowry- Armia
Matthias- Copp- Dano
Roslovic- Tanev.
Well I guess there's still really no room.
 

heilongjetsfan

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Jul 4, 2011
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Just a list, not a lineup:

Laine - Little - Armia
Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Perreault - Roslovic - Ehlers
Copp - Lowry - Petan
Lemieux - Harkins - Dano
Foley - Kraskovsky - Spacek
Tanev, Howden, Vesalainen

I'm sure I'm forgetting a few. Anyway, I think we've got a pretty full cupboard of forwards. If we pick somebody up, I hope it's a grizzled playoff vet who can bring us Stuart-esque locker room intanglibles. I think we're set for actual on-ice talent.

Speaking of Stu, an upgrade on him/Chiarot for the left side is my main priority this off-season. A guy that can handle 12 minutes on the 3rd pair and wouldn't completely embarrass himself for short stints on the 2nd would be ideal.

I don't know who either of these hypothetical players are, but we'll be a scary team if we get them!
 

scarbrow21

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Feb 15, 2017
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Very nicely laid of Chief welcome to the forum and you are my new favorite poster!

As for UFA FWDs, I've felt there's severeal things to consider:
1) How sought after will they be by other teams
2) How likely are they to come to WPG
3) At What cost

With that in mind my list of FWD targets would be

Joe Thornton- 2 years at 7-7.5M (a lot of suitors but if we overpay?)
Bumps little to the 3rd line, doesn't hurt long term, brings winning pedegree and great playmaking and imagine him with Ehlers and Laine.
Unlikely he comes here though but who knows, the overpay for two years might be enticing but he likely takes a pay cut to play on a team like PIT

PA Parentau: 2-4 Years at 2M (Likely not highly sought after)
Excellent PK guy with very good underlaying numbers. He's exactly what we'd need on the 4th line and PK and would allow Armia to play with more skilled players

Daniel Winnik:2 years at 2M (Likely not highly sought after)
Replace Mathias and has better underlaying numbers. Pair him with say Lowry and Parenteau and allow the Kids to develop in the AHL another year and at that hit also doesn't hurt long term.
 

GJF

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Just a list, not a lineup:

Laine - Little - Armia
Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Perreault - Roslovic - Ehlers
Copp - Lowry - Petan
Lemieux - Harkins - Dano
Foley - Kraskovsky - Spacek
Tanev, Howden, Vesalainen

I'm sure I'm forgetting a few. Anyway, I think we've got a pretty full cupboard of forwards. If we pick somebody up, I hope it's a grizzled playoff vet who can bring us Stuart-esque locker room intanglibles. I think we're set for actual on-ice talent.

Speaking of Stu, an upgrade on him/Chiarot for the left side is my main priority this off-season. A guy that can handle 12 minutes on the 3rd pair and wouldn't completely embarrass himself for short stints on the 2nd would be ideal.

I don't know who either of these hypothetical players are, but we'll be a scary team if we get them!

That list is a nice thing but it doesn't fulfill its purpose.

If you consider Lemieux, Harkins, Foley, Kraskovsky (he's not even signed), Spacek and Vesalainen on our roster, that's just wrong. None of those will be on our roster bearing huge surprises (ie: Lemieux or Harkins). Howden hasn't even been re-signed which was just announced. + you forgot Matthias who is actually signed and going to be on our roster.


The list would look more like this:

Laine - Little - Armia
Connor - Scheifele - Wheeler
Perreault - Roslovic - Ehlers
Copp - Lowry - Petan
Dano - Matthias - Tanev

small outsider chances for Lemieux, Harkins, Foley but all very unlikely.

So adressing the actual question here: We don't need another FA forward but it wouldn't hurt to get an experienced bottom-6 PK and FO specialist.
 

WPGChief

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I'm curious as to why many people think if we do add a FWD it has to be a "PK specialist" - generally, "No single person (outside of the goalie, perhaps) is responsible for the success or failure of the penalty kill. At least, not to the extent that people will have you believe":

At this point in time, an overhaul to the way we evaluate forwards and defensemen on the penalty kill is needed. The relative impact that one forward can have on shots against appears to be largely related to how they are deployed. Similarly, the impact an individual defenseman has on shots against also appears to be heavily influenced by their deployment. There are many ideas as to what skills are important for a penalty killer to have; however they remain unvalidated at this time. In the future, we hope to elucidate how these skills impact shot rates against as well as how [on-the-fly] shift rates correlate with players on the first and second penalty-killing units.

(Of course, this doesn't excuse some of the eventual results and outliers seen, such as one Mark Stuart.)


I still think Lemieux is gonna crack the lineup this year. If he didn't get injured in training camp last year, I was fairly confident he would've started opening day over Tanev. Jets staff absolutely love him, but I'm concerned with his recent play in the AHL.
 

WerdnaG

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Jun 27, 2017
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I thought we should grab a top six winger last year, and I think that could be a goal again for this season.

Perreault is probably, ideally, a third line player. I think he works on the second line, for sure though.

I wouldnt be opposed to getting a good depth player like Winnik or even Gagner tbh. He had a really good year in Columbus last season. Could be a good option in the top nine that can move into other positions in case of injury.

We do see to have a lot of those.
 

AWSAA

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Could use a stop-gap 3C to play with Perreault until Roslovic is ready.
 

Dayofthedogs

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Could use a stop-gap 3C to play with Perreault until Roslovic is ready.

Yup. This. Tired of missing the playoffs every year when one of Chef or Little gets injured. A proven 3C for a couple years to let Roslo and maybe even Petal stay in the AL and come up when an injury hits would be ideal. Don't care if there is no room waive Matthias and see if he clears.

Price and Term that would have to be given to a UFA wold probably make this unrealistic. Perhaps a trade would be able to garner some with only 1 or 2 years left at a reasonable hit but I'm not optimistic that could be a reality.
 

DashingDane

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Dec 16, 2014
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I'm curious as to why many people think if we do add a FWD it has to be a "PK specialist" - generally, "No single person (outside of the goalie, perhaps) is responsible for the success or failure of the penalty kill. At least, not to the extent that people will have you believe":



(Of course, this doesn't excuse some of the eventual results and outliers seen, such as one Mark Stuart.)


I still think Lemieux is gonna crack the lineup this year. If he didn't get injured in training camp last year, I was fairly confident he would've started opening day over Tanev. Jets staff absolutely love him, but I'm concerned with his recent play in the AHL.

I have been an advocate of adding a "defensive" forward but wasn't aware of the bolded. I just know that having Stuart, Thorburn and Tanev out at the same time last season made me close my eyes and cry.

I think this is what our PK forwards more or less looked liked last season:

Chef - Wheels
Lowry - Armia
Copp - Little
Tanev - Thorburn

Lets say Frenchie takes over for Scorburn. Ideally I would like to see someone instead of Tanev. I'm not sure who would be up for the task.

I would like us to trade for Hansen. I think he could be had cheaply and adds experience, great defensive play along with around 30 pts a season. Oh yea and he is Danish :yo:
 

DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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Could use a stop-gap 3C to play with Perreault until Roslovic is ready.

i agree, will push Lowry down to 4C. Someone like Sam Gagner maybe? Skilled guy to play with Connor/Dano/Armia perhaps? Can also fill in for 2C when the inevitable MP85 or Little injuries hit
 

DashingDane

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Dec 16, 2014
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i agree, will push Lowry down to 4C. Someone like Sam Gagner maybe? Skilled guy to play with Connor/Dano/Armia perhaps? Can also fill in for 2C when the inevitable MP85 or Little injuries hit

Gagner looks really poor at Even Strength D and takes more penalties then he draws (we already take too many). I don't think we need more "pure" offense guys though his FO wins could benefit us.
 

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