Should the Flyers trade for the 1st overall pick?

[dingbathero]

Short Answer: no.

Long Answer: Nooooooo.

 

[Tripod]

Lets look at some history from 2010 and earlier and the 1st d-man drafted vs the best:
2010 Gubranson(3rd) went 1st, so far Fowler is best(12th)
2009 Hedman(2nd) went 1st, so far OEL is best(6th)
2008 Doughty(2nd) went 1st, so far Karlsson is best(15th)
2007 Hickey(4th) went 1st, so far Subban is best(43rd)
2006 E Johnson(1st) went 1st, so far he is the best(note:bad year for D-men...McBain is #2 D-man that year followed by MacDonald, Petry and Mike Weber...eeewwww)
2005 J.Johnson(3rd) went 1st, so far Yandle(105)/Letang(62) are best
2004 Barker(3rd) went 1st, so far Green (29) is best
2003 Suter(7th) went 1st, so far Weber(49) is best
2002 Boumeester(3rd) went 1st, so far Keith(54) is best
2001 Komisarek(7th) went 1st, so far Zidlicky(176) is best
2000 Klesla(4th) went 1st, so far Visnovsky(118) is best

So really, in the past 11 years, the 1st D-man taken has not been the best one once everything is said and done. And man...what a bad year 2006 was for D-men. McBain is #2 with 75 career points yet 2 years LATER in 2008, there are 8 d-men that have more than that. For Philly...stay at 11 and see who falls to you.

 

[Laveuglette]

Lets look at some history from 2010 and earlier and the 1st d-man drafted vs the best:
2010 Gubranson(3rd) went 1st, so far Fowler is best(12th)
2009 Hedman(2nd) went 1st, so far OEL is best(6th)
2008 Doughty(2nd) went 1st, so far Karlsson is best(15th)
2007 Hickey(4th) went 1st, so far Subban is best(43rd)
2006 E Johnson(1st) went 1st, so far he is the best(note:bad year for D-men...McBain is #2 D-man that year followed by MacDonald, Petry and Mike Weber...eeewwww)
2005 J.Johnson(3rd) went 1st, so far Yandle(105)/Letang(62) are best
2004 Barker(3rd) went 1st, so far Green (29) is best
2003 Suter(7th) went 1st, so far Weber(49) is best
2002 Boumeester(3rd) went 1st, so far Keith(54) is best
2001 Komisarek(7th) went 1st, so far Zidlicky(176) is best
2000 Klesla(4th) went 1st, so far Visnovsky(118) is best

So really, in the past 11 years, the 1st D-man taken has not been the best one once everything is said and done. And man...what a bad year 2006 was for D-men. McBain is #2 with 75 career points yet 2 years LATER in 2008, there are 8 d-men that have more than that. For Philly...stay at 11 and see who falls to you.

Man, you are comparing the first defenseman to all the others drafted in the 7 rounds. Of course there's a great chance that one of all the other defensemen will be better than the #1, that's obvious. The first one has the best chance to become something interesting, though. Your "stat" doesn't mean that most of the times, it's better to have a lower pick, but that it's better to have all the defensemen in the draft than the first one.

 

[dats81]

The first defenseman taken is a hard to miss shot but at the same time those players hardly turn out franchise defensemen you can build your whole team around.

Drafting is based on assessing a young player's long term potential which is a treacherous process. There may be 1 or 2 extraordinary talents every draft year that just stand out by a margin but after that it's a wash. You may as well find your long term All-Star defenseman at pick #11 or beyond.

 

[Tripod]

Man, you are comparing the first defenseman to all the others drafted in the 7 rounds. Of course there's a great chance that one of all the other defensemen will be better than the #1, that's obvious. The first one has the best chance to become something interesting, though. Your "stat" doesn't mean that most of the times, it's better to have a lower pick, but that it's better to have all the defensemen in the draft than the first one.

That's the whole point. Why should Philly trade a bunch of assets to move up to #1 when historically, the 1st D-man picked will not be the best one. If the stats showed that 50% of the time, the 1st one picked was the best then it would be something to consider. Clearly that is not the case. If Philly wants a D-man at this draft, stay put and draft the best one available at #11. Chances are, he has as much chance at being the best as the others picked. That was the point of the stats.

 

[flyingsouth]

As awesome as it would be to land Jones, I think that if we can land Ristolainen or Nurse at 11 we have a pretty good shot at landing the best D-Man in this draft (in the long run). Especially given what we would probably have to give up to move up 10 spots...

 

[FLYERSFAN18]

Anyone who thinks that Colorado will trade that first pick for anything short of a franchise crippling return is crazy. They are already set at forward with guys like landeskog, duchesne and o'reilly. They have a decent goaltender in varlomov. All they really need is a few pieces on defense which Seth jones is a great start for them. Not to mention he is a hometown kid. Trading for that picks is just not happening. Before Colorado got that pick I thought there would be a small chance a team like Florida might trade it, but now there is almost absolutely no chance they will trade it

 

[member 30781]

Lets look at some history from 2010 and earlier and the 1st d-man drafted vs the best:
2010 Gubranson(3rd) went 1st, so far Fowler is best(12th)
2009 Hedman(2nd) went 1st, so far OEL is best(6th)
2008 Doughty(2nd) went 1st, so far Karlsson is best(15th)
2007 Hickey(4th) went 1st, so far Subban is best(43rd)
2006 E Johnson(1st) went 1st, so far he is the best(note:bad year for D-men...McBain is #2 D-man that year followed by MacDonald, Petry and Mike Weber...eeewwww)
2005 J.Johnson(3rd) went 1st, so far Yandle(105)/Letang(62) are best
2004 Barker(3rd) went 1st, so far Green (29) is best
2003 Suter(7th) went 1st, so far Weber(49) is best
2002 Boumeester(3rd) went 1st, so far Keith(54) is best
2001 Komisarek(7th) went 1st, so far Zidlicky(176) is best
2000 Klesla(4th) went 1st, so far Visnovsky(118) is best

So really, in the past 11 years, the 1st D-man taken has not been the best one once everything is said and done. And man...what a bad year 2006 was for D-men. McBain is #2 with 75 career points yet 2 years LATER in 2008, there are 8 d-men that have more than that. For Philly...stay at 11 and see who falls to you.

No offense, but that is a terrible argument.

 

[Laveuglette]

That's the whole point. Why should Philly trade a bunch of assets to move up to #1 when historically, the 1st D-man picked will not be the best one. If the stats showed that 50% of the time, the 1st one picked was the best then it would be something to consider. Clearly that is not the case. If Philly wants a D-man at this draft, stay put and draft the best one available at #11. Chances are, he has as much chance at being the best as the others picked. That was the point of the stats.

It is a terrible argument to compare the first one to "the rest", as I explained in my other post.

 

[Tripod]

It is a terrible argument to compare the first one to "the rest", as I explained in my other post.

So if Jones will not be the best...take a chance that the best is ours at #11. That is the point. The draft is always an educated guess...even 1 year later the order would change drastically. That is why I am against trading assets to move up in a draft. And that is the point I was trying to make.Take the BPA at #11...hopefully a d-man...and hope he develops into the best one from the draft year.