OT: Should Doug Armstrong get fired?

[Ranksu]

Look, don't blame Army. I'm sure he wanted to do something, but his actuary table said what everyone was worth and no one was willing to pay that much - and if you can't trust your actuary table [which was probably not built by an actuary, and probably isn't being interpreted by an actuary], what can you trust.

What If Army thinks we can compete playoffs? So let team try to clinch playoffs spot and hope the best?

We dont know how Army sees where we are at now.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Friends, Blues Fans, Countrymen, lend me your ears. I have an apology to make.

For years, you've known me as the guy who's been a fierce critic of Doug Armstrong. I've been a longstanding proponent of the idea that Armstrong's work was terrible, his genius was overrated, his success was vastly more due to luck than talent, that he was a prime example of the Peter Principle and that there was no limit to his ability to fail upwards despite all the terrible decisions he made.

I have long argued - nay, begged, pleaded, wished upon a star, made burnt offering upon an improvised altar for divine intervention - that the day would come where the eyes of Blues ownership would finally be opened and they would recognize that everything great that Doug Armstrong did was really a mirage, a shell game, a grand fabrication where purely dumb luck from a series of highly improbable events came together to create a 5-month run of grand success that we've enjoyed ever since, and that it had nothing to do with anything he did or responsible for.

I'm sad to say that today, March 8, 2024, I have learned that I was wrong. Doug Armstrong really does know more than everyone else. He really is a genius. Everything good that has happened is because of him and what he's built, and we all should recognize that and give him the full accolades that he richly deserves.

He ... has an actuary table.

And it's not just an ordinary actuary table. This table has ... special powers, like saying when guys are going to play their 11th game, or 50th game, or whatever.

And I'm sure Doug was severely downplaying what this actuary table does, because as an actuary who's seen an actuary table, uses an actuary table, I know what an actuary table can do and what it can't do. And if this actuary table tells what he says it can, on top of what an actuary table does, ... well, now I realize what an absolute genius Doug Armstrong really is. He has not only tapped the power of an actuary table, he's enhanced it in ways that are truly unimaginable.

I'm certain, without a doubt, that this actuary table is what has allowed Doug to make the decisions that he has, that have worked the ways they have. It's what foreshadowed what Doug must do from his earliest days in the organization through the years where we struggled to advance in the playoffs. That was not bad luck, or poor strategic planning. The actuary table made clear: those things must happen. It made clear our path for success in 2016, our near-success in 2017, and our late-season failure in 2018. All was necessary to make the moves Doug made in 2018 and 2019 that brought us the Cup.

The rest of us couldn't understand some of the decisions that happened. The novice would see a bunch of moves in the offseason but the same lousy head coach and think "there is no way this is ever going to work." We would see early-season struggles and think failure; Doug's actuary table gave him the assurance not just to go into the season like that, but to not call up Binnington, wait some 7 weeks to bring in Berube, wait another 4 weeks to call up Binnington, then have Berube wait another 2 weeks to finally play Berube. No ordinary mortal would have known that confluence of events would have worked so perfectly to result in a Cup; only an actuary table could have told him that, and only someone who knew how to read an actuary table would have interpreted that and known exactly what to do and when to do it.

Everything else since? I know, it looks weird. It looks confusing. It looks like it's a mess, almost like a complete clusterf***. Not signing guys. Signing other guys. Not making trades. Making other trades. Do not fear, friends. It is the actuary table that has dictated what must happen, is leading us to future glory, and in Doug's trusted hands and with his ability to read the table like no other person can, it will most assuredly bring us back to great success once again.

So if it's not too much trouble, and if there are no objections, I'd like to switch my vote from "yes" to "no." Now knowing that Doug Armstrong has an actuary table, and knowing the great predictive power that an actuary table has, I realize that he truly is a great general manager, far greater than any of us really realize, and as long as he has that actuary table there is no way his plan - a plan which we cannot know, for we don't have that actuary table to be able to interpret its mystic runes - will ever fail.

Post of the year.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

I don't think drafting players that are eventually traded reflects poorly on an organization's drafting. If you draft a guy, he contributes to your team for a certain amount of time, and then you trade him or let him walk eventually, that doesn't mean it was a bad draft pick. Do only players who retire as Blues count as good draft picks? I also disagree that "The Blues have drafted 14 players in the 1st or 2nd round, who are considered "Busts" because I don't believe 2nd rounders are ever considered busts. Even players drafted at the top of the 2nd round aren't likely to be regular NHLers.

19th in point percentage since Covid ignores the years of competing that lead up to that. Most teams that contend that long have a down cycle with how the draft and FA contracts are setup in the NHL. Teams that contend longer (other than Boston somehow) can rely on multiple future HoFers drafted in the top 5/10 from a major rebuild. Army never got that advantage; Dvorsky is his first ever top 10 pick with the Blues.

It looks like someone already pointed out that the Blues are not the only NHL team that has not had a player taken in the last 3 drafts, play a single game in the NHL.

Also, when analysing Army's trades, you're looking at the entire trade tree of what we paid and comparing that only to what we acquired. When you say he "essentially traded Stastny, Lehtera, Tage Thompson, Sobotka, Berglund, Two additional 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for Schenn and ROR" you're ignoring the years of hockey we got out of the players we traded away. If you wanted to use that logic, you'd at least have to include the assets we got in the RoR trade on the other side.

I don't think trading away guys we drafted in the 1st is a bad thing either. Would anyone wish we kept Bokk or Rundblad? Ian Cole has had a solid career, but he got us Bortuzzo who contributed for years, including on our cup run. Part of drafting and developing and running a team is evaluating your prospects. Trading a former 1st isn't a demerit.

I know Leddy, Leopold, and Scandella are easy targets, but do we miss any of the picks or prospects we gave up for them?

tl;dr I don't think any GM in the league would look good if you used this standard of analysis to judge them

There is just no way to top this! It has convinced me that the Blues are in....

 

[BrokenFace]

There is just no way to top this! It has convinced me that the Blues are in....
View attachment 833186

Break it down for me. Which parts about that post are "Twilight Zone"?

 

[Spektre]

I think Army deserves a lot of credit for the Blues winning a Cup, and a lot of success. I do think it’s time to turn the page. I would wait until the season is over. I think it’s time.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

We dont know how Army sees where we are at now.

I do.

His actuary table tells him we're practically a playoff team and he just needs to do window dressing with it to make it elite. Hopefully that actuary table says what window dressing to do.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I'll say it again.

There was a fire, but no sale.

What does Doug know?

 

[Xerloris]

I'll say it again.

There was a fire, but no sale.

What does Doug know?

Probably that there are some contracts coming off the books this summer and that the cap is going up so we're going to have room to change things. You know, patience.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Probably that there are some contracts coming off the books this summer and that the cap is going up so we're going to have room to change things. You know, patience.

To be fair, he has to be patient because no one's offering the value to trade those contracts without being sent back sweeteners. In short, the patience is not by choice. He knows if he starts trading off players for the sake of trading he will just dig his hole that much deeper.

Either that or his magic chart knows far more than we mere mortals ever will. That fifth dimensional chess is not to be messed with.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Break it down for me. Which parts about that post are "Twilight Zone"?

Sorry, I quoted the wrong post. It is the Blues who are in the Twilight Zone, based on @Ted Hoffman 's post. Your post is not.

I'd correct my post, but then people would wonder what the heck you are talking about, when it was my screw up.

 

[Celtic Note]

I would say that I do not want Doug fired at this moment unless there is a high quality replacement available. No Chirelli’s or Holland’s.

 

[BrokenFace]

Sorry, I quoted the wrong post. It is the Blues who are in the Twilight Zone, based on @Ted Hoffman 's post. Your post is not.

I'd correct my post, but then people would wonder what the heck you are talking about, when it was my screw up.

Ah I got it now. I sounded defensive, but I was just honestly confused lol

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Ah I got it now. I sounded defensive, but I was just honestly confused lol

Honestly, I was too and not by your response. I didn't remember quoting your post and I was cold sober when I made that post. But, I was also listening to people drone on a Zoom meeting at the time.

I guess the moral of the story is Zoom meetings have a negative effect on the human mind. Especially Zoom meetings with the people I work with.

Back to the subject at hand, I guess if I was in charge, I would be asking DA "can you explain what your plan is right now?"

I'm also a Carolina Panthers' fan. They have been deluding themselves that they are only a couple of pieces away every year but one since they went to the Super Bowl after thee 2015 season. It has led them to be doomat. I don't think that is the case Armstrong's assessment right now, but I could be misreading the tea leaves.

 

[Ranksu]

I would say that I do not want Doug fired at this moment unless there is a high quality replacement available. No Chirelli’s or Holland’s.

What moves Army has done, I dont know could anyone done it any worse? Real Contender and Cup Champ to pretender on few years.

 

[BrokenFace]

What moves Army has done, I dont know could anyone done it any worse? Real Contender and Cup Champ to pretender on few years.

What GM has managed to keep his team contending forever? I'm not saying Army should never be fired, but what GM can you point to who overcomes his team getting older and his core pieces getting more expensive as they hit their UFA years?

 

[Ranksu]

What GM has managed to keep his team contending forever? I'm not saying Army should never be fired, but what GM can you point to who overcomes his team getting older and his core pieces getting more expensive as they hit their UFA years?

Well, I think we can all agree he has failed to keep team together what was Champ team once?

Chicago, Tampa comes up quickly on my mind who kept core together what was build to success. Other which werent important get traded. In Blues all fall apart when you let go your biggest stone of house away.

 

[Xerloris]

What GM has managed to keep his team contending forever? I'm not saying Army should never be fired, but what GM can you point to who overcomes his team getting older and his core pieces getting more expensive as they hit their UFA years?

Dizee has, everytime he starts a new season on NHL 23 or what ever it is now. He sees no reason Armstrong can't do the same.

 

[BrokenFace]

Well, I think we can all agree he has failed to keep team together what was Champ team once?

Chicago, Tampa comes up quickly on my mind who kept core together what was build to success. Other which werent important get traded. In Blues all fall apart when you let go your biggest stone of house away.

Chicago and Tampa's cores were much younger when they won. Pietro leaving hurt the organization, but the other pieces that left weren't going to save us from retooling or whatever. We won our cup much later in our window than most teams and, imo, a downturn was inevitable. I look around the league and don't see teams who defy that cycle.

 

[Ranksu]

Chicago and Tampa's cores were much younger when they won. Pietro leaving hurt the organization, but the other pieces that left weren't going to save us from retooling or whatever. We won our cup much later in our window than most teams and, imo, a downturn was inevitable. I look around the league and don't see teams who defy that cycle.

Eh, doesnt come up mind any other team come from bottom of league to win it. I guess we can say Blues Cup run was special and wouldnt happend in other universe again. So I guess IT was just once in a life time run. So guys like Pietro, O'Reilly, Binny, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Perron, Dunn were just 'meh'. Not corner pieces for Cup run.

But we dont know would they redone magical Cup run how Army slice team apart.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Well, I think we can all agree he has failed to keep team together what was Champ team once?

Chicago, Tampa comes up quickly on my mind who kept core together what was build to success. Other which werent important get traded. In Blues all fall apart when you let go your biggest stone of house away.

Chicago had an extra ~4mil in cap(5.5-7% extra cap from 2010 to 2015) from the back diving deals that Hossa and Keith signed under the previous CBA. Tampa has juggled players on and off LTIR to stay under cap.

Makes things a little bit easier to keep your core together when you have that extra space to utilize.

 

[lsgpedals]

I vote yes to fire armstrong and other coaches like steve ott. its time for a new front office philosophy

 

[lsgpedals]

why funny? fire the clown and ottless .. why not hire kirk maltby and stick him behind the bench too then

 

[BlueOil]

why funny? fire the clown and ottless .. why not hire kirk maltby and stick him behind the bench too then

what's your problem with Ott?

like specifically, we get you don't like him from mocking his name

 

[GoldenSeal]

what's your problem with Ott?

like specifically, we get you don't like him from mocking his name

For real.

I get if you call out everyone but specifically Ott? No Weber, just Ott?

Seriously, how can you hate Steve Ott?

 

[Ranksu]

What IT would take to get Army fired?

This team needs new direction.