News Article: Shero fired, Fitz interim GM part II

[MauDevils]

Personally I don't think analytics are as refined or accurate in hockey as they are in baseball. Using them as a supplement is fine. Going all-in on them is very risky.

One million percent. If Analytics are being given that much pull with the franchise we are in big trouble.

There's still huge question marks in the quality of data collection. Shot charts are off, wrong players listed on the ice and too many stats are collected at an individuals discretion like MSG counting 800 shots per game.

You can look at a stat like WAR or GAR and see Jesper Bratt as being our best player despite being statistically bad in almost every other analytic category. There are too many factors going on in hockey and major holes have already been poked in almost every "trusted" advanced stat.

 

[MNDevilsfan]

Thing is there always seemed to be a bit of a disconnect between them constantly bringing in analytics guys and Hynes coaching against the analytics. Especially with all of them seemingly leaving within a year or two. It seemed to me either a disconnect between Hynes/Shero or what's more likely now, a disconnect between Shero and ownership. Heck they started bringing in analytics guys under Lou who had none of it either (remember Sunny Mehta?)

From what I've read, Hynes is actually a pretty analytically oriented coach. Now you may not like what he did in terms of systems (I've never been crazy about him as a tactical coach), but that's a bit different than saying he's unable to incorporate inference from data into his decision making.

Just based on what we know, I am sure the ownership group wants the analytics staff and other parts of the org to have more say, and it sounds like Shero wanted to run a small shop. I don't see a problem with getting more voices and perspectives. Not like it's guaranteed to be better or anything, but that's sort of how Carolina operates and it does pretty well for them. The Leafs seem to have a structure that's a bit more slanted to a traditional setup, but clearly Dubas gets a lot of input from different people in the organization. That kind of balance seems right to me, with a GM who knows the hockey world well but is capable of listening and integrating lots of different ideas before making a call.

 

[Offseason Champs]

Edit:. And being completely honest I am quite fearful of "building around" two former #1 overalls who have 45 points in 79 games between them.

Are you talking about nico and hughes? If so... what. These are exactly the guys you build around. They’re both super young, cost controlled for a while yet, and not even close to their prime years while still being beyond serviceable in the nhl. They’re gonna be insane.

 

[MNDevilsfan]

Personally I don't think analytics are as refined or accurate in hockey as they are in baseball. Using them as a supplement is fine. Going all-in on them is very risky.

Plus I've never been a fan of this new age approach of marginalizing managers/coaching but you still need a strong voice at the top regardless. The Yankees for all the talk of analytics and collaboration still have one voice at the top in Cashman. The Red Sox have had one voice at the top whether it's Theo or Dombrowski.

And yeah, I agree with this. I'm a data scientist in a very different industry, so part of me would be interested in seeing how it played out, but for sure the tradational hockey ops background/perspective is very important.

 

[NJDevs26]

Just based on what we know, I am sure the ownership group wants the analytics staff and other parts of the org to have more say, and it sounds like Shero wanted to run a small shop. I don't see a problem with getting more voices and perspectives. Not like it's guaranteed to be better or anything, but that's sort of how Carolina operates and it does pretty well for them. The Leafs seem to have a structure that's a bit more slanted to a traditional setup, but clearly Dubas gets a lot of input from different people in the organization. That kind of balance seems right to me, with a GM who knows the hockey world well but is capable of listening and integrating lots of different ideas before making a call.

But since they hired Shero in the first place presumably they knew all these personality traits about him, not like the guy's never been a GM before. What, they just found out four years in (and after giving him a recent extension, to boot) he likes a small inner circle and isn't as keen on analytics as they are?

 

[JimEIV]

Are you talking about nico and hughes? If so... what. These are exactly the guys you build around. They’re both super young, cost controlled for a while yet, and not even close to their prime years while still being beyond serviceable in the nhl. They’re gonna be insane.

You build around elite players...

Now maybe those two become elite someday but as of today I have seen almost no indication of that.... little difficult to speak about both in such broad terms as I think both are very different situations but I don't think either have met expectation. Furthermore everything changes next year when Nico suddenly beomes a 7.25 million dollar cap hit... His 50 point pace that he has essentially been on for 3 straight years takes on a completely different context.

 

[Triumph]

You build around elite players...

Now maybe those two become elite someday but as of today I have seen almost no indication of that.... little difficult to speak about both in such broad terms as I think both are very different situations but I don't think either have met expectation. Furthermore everything changes next year when Nico suddenly beomes a 7.25 million dollar cap hit... His 50 point pace that he has essentially been on for 3 straight years takes on a completely different context.

In absolutely no season has Nico been on a 50 point pace.

 

[JimEIV]

In absolutely no season has Nico been on a 50 point pace.

I put the numbers up the other day... he's been .6 something ppg every year.

Rookie year .63. 52 point pace
Sophomore year .68. 55 point pace
This year .68. 55 point pace

That's a 50 point player

 

[Triumph]

I put the numbers up the other day... he's been .6 something ppg every year.

You put them up and then forgot, or more likely just looked at the wrong thing.

His rookie season - 52 points

His 2nd season - 47 points in 69 games, which rounds to 56 points

His third season - 28 in 41 which rounds to 56 points

So, like I said, in no season has he been on pace for 50 points.

In addition, while they exist, the number of players whose career point average is the same as their 19-20-21 age seasons is vanishingly small. But hey, keep it up with the concern trolling.

 

[Triumph]

Look at this pile of garbage who puts up .6 points a game between the ages of 19 and 21

 

[JimEIV]

You put them up and then forgot, or more likely just looked at the wrong thing.

His rookie season - 52 points

His 2nd season - 47 points in 69 games, which rounds to 56 points

His third season - 28 in 41 which rounds to 56 points

So, like I said, in no season has he been on pace for 50 points.

In addition, while they exist, the number of players whose career point average is the same as their 19-20-21 age seasons is vanishingly small. But hey, keep it up with the concern trolling.

You just showed that he's a 50 point player what are talking about?

With almost no deviation

 

[JimEIV]

Look at this pile of garbage who puts up .6 points a game between the ages of 19 and 21

Lots of bust in that list

 

[Better Call Sal]

Edit:. And being completely honest I am quite fearful of "building around" two former #1 overalls who have 45 points in 79 games between them.

Yes, surely neither of them will develop further from 21 or 19 years old, nor will they score anymore points this year.

 

[Triumph]

Lots of bust in that list

You've absolutely lost your mind. How do you see that list and say 'lots of bust' on that list? Are you talking about Sergei Samsonov, who had a perfectly cromulent career? Adam Deadmarsh who retired because of concussions? Nikolai Zherdev who had his own crosses to bear? Almost every player on that list spent a significant portion of their careers as a top line player and if I winnow it farther based on games played I'm only going to make that more obvious.

 

[JimEIV]

You've absolutely lost your mind. How do you see that list and say 'lots of bust' on that list? Are you talking about Sergei Samsonov, who had a perfectly cromulent career? Adam Deadmarsh who retired because of concussions? Nikolai Zherdev who had his own crosses to bear? Almost every player on that list spent a significant portion of their careers as a top line player and if I winnow it farther based on games played I'm only going to make that more obvious.

Actually I was talking about Daze, Grattan and Wolski from a quick glance

 

[Billdo]

Are you talking about nico and hughes? If so... what. These are exactly the guys you build around. They’re both super young, cost controlled for a while yet, and not even close to their prime years while still being beyond serviceable in the nhl. They’re gonna be insane.

Jim's always been pretty underwhelmed with these two. Actually most things.

 

[Oneiro]

The only player who hasn't been underwhelming for the majority of these past three seasons is Coleman.

Making an argument that there was something systemically wrong with the approach on and off the ice and then arguing that the core talents have under-performed without giving any consideration to the context which you already agree with is just silly.

"My aquarium is filthy. Also, there's something wrong with the fish in my aquarium."

 

[Triumph]

Actually I was talking about Daze, Grattan and Wolskibfrom a quick glance

Eric Daze is a bust? Eric Daze averaged 31 goals per 82 games in the dead puck era. He got injured.

Chris Gratton doesn't even belong on this list but he's here because of the stupid baseball-reference influenced way that h-r does ages. Gratton scored nowhere close to Hischier in his first two seasons, which aren't even counted here.

Wojtek Wolski also struggled with injuries, but he is another person who only makes it because of h-r ages.

If you think Nico Hischier resembles Chris Gratton or Wojtek Wolski, there's certainly a lot of bust somewhere, but not on the list I posted.

 

[MadDevil]

Seguin, Benn, Getzlaf, Hossa, Kucherov...what a bunch of busts!

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

wait someone is suggesting that Nico is a bust or underwhelming?

eeek.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

It used to be that guys who got drafted high were overrated for years and some GMs really took advantage of that. I think the league wised up after the Griffin Reinhart and Drouin trades though and there's simply no way the Devils could trade Hischier / Hughes and get something with more value back. As soon as those guys enter trade talks their value drops like a new car driving off the lot and GMs wonder why the hell they are available.

The devils need these guys to hit their ceilings, that's the path forward.

 

[Triumph]

Seguin, Benn, Getzlaf, Hossa, Kucherov...what a bunch of busts!

Couture, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Skinner, Lecavalier and the list goes on. Hossa a definite HOFer, Getzlaf likely, Seguin possible, Lecavalier possible, MacKinnon putting up HOF level seasons - nah, there's 3 guys whose careers sputtered in their late 20s.

 

[JimEIV]

The only player who hasn't been underwhelming for the majority of these past three seasons is Coleman.

Making an argument that there was something systemically wrong with the approach on and off the ice and then arguing that the core talents have under-performed without giving any consideration to the context which you already agree with is just silly.

"My aquarium is filthy. Also, there's something wrong with the fish in my aquarium."

Horribly run franchise with terrible systems still have players that can put up points.

Clayton Keller managed 65 points as a 19 year old in Arizona

 

[Triumph]

Horribly run franchise with terrible systems still have players that can put up points.

Clayton Keller managed 65 points as a 19 year old in Arizona

Good for him - how'd he do the next year? Right - 47 points. What's 47 + 65 divided by 164 *82 ? 56. Exactly the number of points Nico would be on pace for this season.

 

[NJDevs26]

This thread is specifically to discuss the GM change, if that's over with and we aren't going to keep it on topic it'll get locked before 1000.