Value of: Shea Weber

[Trapper]

2 things.

1. You need a GM willing to trade him. Is that Bergevin? Considering what he gave up to get him, highly unlikely.

2. Weber needs to return from injury and return to form. What he has done is great, but you aren't trading for what he has done, you are trading for what he can still do. I would need to see what he can still do. Does he come back and get injured in 6 more games?

 

[habsgirl5000]

1. You need a GM willing to trade him. Is that Bergevin? Considering what he gave up to get him, highly unlikely.

this is the reason MB can not and will not, ever trade weber....that would be admitting he was wrong,

also fans will then basically see the return for weber as being the return for PK subban,

as long as MB is here....weber will be here

 

[Trapper]

this is the reason MB can not and will not, ever trade weber....that would be admitting he was wrong,

also fans will then basically see the return for weber as being the return for PK subban,

as long as MB is here....weber will be here

IMO when you trade PK for Weber and commit long term to Price you want to win now or you are rebuilding while trying to make the playoffs.
It is not a bottom out plan, it is a year to year assessment.
Make the playoffs, if not, where did you land and address it with the best you can get.
Repeat. It's not a tank purge.
I agree with you, as long as Bergevin is GM, these players are highly unlikely to move.

 

[Baksfamous112]

this is the reason MB can not and will not, ever trade weber....that would be admitting he was wrong,

also fans will then basically see the return for weber as being the return for PK subban,

as long as MB is here....weber will be here

Or maybe, just MAYBE it’s because he’s one of the best D in the league, playing RHD; The hardest position to fill in hockey (debatable with top end C’s)

 

[habsgirl5000]

Or maybe, just MAYBE it’s because he’s one of the best D in the league

yeah sure....just like price is one of the best goalies in the league

do you actually watch these players play?....or do you watch stats?

 

[Baksfamous112]

yeah sure....just like price is one of the best goalies in the league

do you actually watch these players play?....or do you watch stats?

Wait, what? You just lost any credibility left you had with that response

 

[Liferleafer]

Here's my honest opinion, Weber would be an excellent upgrade to the Leafs D. If we could get him for futures like 1st+2nd+.(not that i am saying the Habs do it) then sure. But if the cost is Marner++...then it's an easy pass.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Here's my honest opinion, Weber would be an excellent upgrade to the Leafs D. If we could get him for futures like 1st+2nd+.(not that i am saying the Habs do it) then sure. But if the cost is Marner++...then it's an easy pass.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s a trade to be made

 

[Liferleafer]

Honestly, I don’t think there’s a trade to be made

I agree.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

Here's my honest opinion, Weber would be an excellent upgrade to the Leafs D. If we could get him for futures like 1st+2nd+.(not that i am saying the Habs do it) then sure. But if the cost is Marner++...then it's an easy pass.

Id dump him for less than that. Its all a matter of whether the habs find a half decent GM before Weber reaches negative value, and Im afraid the latter will happen sooner.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I agree.

For me, an acceptable return would be a young established top 4 D (Dermott for example), a young top 6 forward (unfortunately you guys have none. Nylander/Marner are too valuable & already established and Brown/Kapanen doesn’t fit the bill for me) and a 1st round pick. That doesn’t take into account an extra asset for trading a #1 RHD to a divisional rival.

Basically, I’d be looking for a bit less than a 35 years old Pronger return.

 

[Randy Randerson]

For me, an acceptable return would be a young established top 4 D (Dermott for example), a young top 6 forward (unfortunately you guys have none. Nylander/Marner are too valuable & already established and Brown/Kapanen doesn’t fit the bill for me) and a 1st round pick. That doesn’t take into account an extra asset for trading a #1 RHD to a divisional rival.

Basically, I’d be looking for a bit less than a 35 years old Pronger return.

wait wait, you see Niklas Grossman (28yo at the time, coming off a career high 14pt season in less than 18 mins a night and was a considerably negative possession player for his entire 8 years in the NHL at that point) + Sam Gagner (almost 26 at the time, going through his 2nd trade in a year, consistently 40's pt range and widely labelled a bust) + a 4th round pick as being a better return than Dermott+ a forward between Nylander and Brown + a 1st?

edit: if you were referencing the 2009 trade, my mistake

 

[Hostile Offer]

wait wait, you see Niklas Grossman (28yo at the time, coming off a career high 14pt season in less than 18 mins a night and was a considerably negative possession player for his entire 8 years in the NHL at that point) + Sam Gagner (almost 26 at the time, going through his 2nd trade in a year, consistently 40's pt range and widely labelled a bust) + a 4th round pick as being a better return than Dermott+ a forward between Nylander and Brown + a 1st?

I think he means the Lupul+Sbisa+2 1sts return.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think he means the Lupul+Sbisa+2 1sts return.

ah, my mistake.

 

[Baksfamous112]

wait wait, you see Niklas Grossman (28yo at the time, coming off a career high 14pt season in less than 18 mins a night and was a considerably negative possession player for his entire 8 years in the NHL at that point) + Sam Gagner (almost 26 at the time, going through his 2nd trade in a year, consistently 40's pt range and widely labelled a bust) + a 4th round pick as being a better return than Dermott+ a forward between Nylander and Brown + a 1st?

What? he was traded for a 25 years old Joffrey Lupul coming off a 50 points season:

Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2000-01	Medicine Hat Tigers	WHL	69	30	26	56	39	4	--	--	--	--	--
2001-02	Medicine Hat Tigers	WHL	72	56	50	106	95	11	--	--	--	--	--
2002-03	Medicine Hat Tigers	WHL	50	41	37	78	82	2	11	4	11	15	20
2003-04	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	NHL	75	13	21	34	28	-6	--	--	--	--	--
2003-04	Cincinnati Mighty Ducks	AHL	3	3	2	5	2	4	--	--	--	--	--
2004-05	Cincinnati Mighty Ducks	AHL	65	30	26	56	58	10	12	3	9	12	27
2005-06	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	NHL	81	28	25	53	48	-13	16	9	2	11	31
2006-07	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	81	16	12	28	45	-29	--	--	--	--	--
2007-08	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	56	20	26	46	35	2	17	4	6	10	2
2008-09	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	79	25	25	50	58	1	6	1	1	2	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

A 19 years old Lucas Sbisa who already had half a NHL season under his belt and looked promising:

Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2006-07	Zug EV	Swiss-A	7	0	0	0	0
2007-08	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	62	6	27	33	63	19	19	3	12	15	17
2008-09	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	18	4	11	15	19	-4	11	2	1	3	12
2008-09	Philadelphia Phantoms	AHL	2	1	1	2	2	-1	--	--	--	--	--
2008-09	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	39	0	7	7	36	-6	1	0	0	0	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Two first round pick (2009 1st - 21th overall) and 2010 1st (29th overall) and a conditional pick (which was not met).

I would be looking for something similar, minus the second 1st rounder and maybe the conditional pick (depending on who's the two assets coming back)

 

[The Man with a Plan]

For me, an acceptable return would be a young established top 4 D (Dermott for example), a young top 6 forward (unfortunately you guys have none. Nylander/Marner are too valuable & already established and Brown/Kapanen doesn’t fit the bill for me) and a 1st round pick. That doesn’t take into account an extra asset for trading a #1 RHD to a divisional rival.

Basically, I’d be looking for a bit less than a 35 years old Pronger return.

So the habs traded a young Norris winner entering his prime for an elite d man exiting his prime and then you want to move him for the equivalent of spare parts like Pronger got?

No wonder the Habs are circling the drain. That's lunacy.

 

[Randy Randerson]

What? he was traded for a 25 years old Joffrey Lupul coming off a 50 points season:

Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2000-01	Medicine Hat Tigers	WHL	69	30	26	56	39	4	--	--	--	--	--
2001-02	Medicine Hat Tigers	WHL	72	56	50	106	95	11	--	--	--	--	--
2002-03	Medicine Hat Tigers	WHL	50	41	37	78	82	2	11	4	11	15	20
2003-04	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	NHL	75	13	21	34	28	-6	--	--	--	--	--
2003-04	Cincinnati Mighty Ducks	AHL	3	3	2	5	2	4	--	--	--	--	--
2004-05	Cincinnati Mighty Ducks	AHL	65	30	26	56	58	10	12	3	9	12	27
2005-06	Anaheim Mighty Ducks	NHL	81	28	25	53	48	-13	16	9	2	11	31
2006-07	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	81	16	12	28	45	-29	--	--	--	--	--
2007-08	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	56	20	26	46	35	2	17	4	6	10	2
2008-09	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	79	25	25	50	58	1	6	1	1	2	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

A 19 years old Lucas Sbisa who already had half a NHL season under his belt and looked promising:

Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2006-07	Zug EV	Swiss-A	7	0	0	0	0
2007-08	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	62	6	27	33	63	19	19	3	12	15	17
2008-09	Lethbridge Hurricanes	WHL	18	4	11	15	19	-4	11	2	1	3	12
2008-09	Philadelphia Phantoms	AHL	2	1	1	2	2	-1	--	--	--	--	--
2008-09	Philadelphia Flyers	NHL	39	0	7	7	36	-6	1	0	0	0	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Two first round pick (2009 1st - 21th overall) and 2010 1st (29th overall) and a conditional pick (which was not met).

I would be looking for something similar, minus the second 1st rounder and maybe the conditional pick (depending on who's the two assets coming back)

that was his 33yo season, but my mistake

I also think you'll be severely disappointed in what the market is for Weber. In the last couple of years you see RFA contracts growing, and term on UFA contracts for players in their late 20's/30's shrinking, teams are learning not to pay for past performance. Pronger had also had 5 straight seasons of 66 or more games played at #1D level, where Weber missed most of last one and is expected to miss most of this one. Then there's the contract - Pronger was a UFA and Weber has another 6-8 years on the cap. I don't think you'd find many teams willing to call those players close to equivalent at the same point in time because of the injuries and contracts

 

[Baksfamous112]

that was his 33yo season, but my mistake

My bad. I messed up calculating the years/age.

So the habs traded a young Norris winner entering his prime for an elite d man exiting his prime and then you want to move him for the equivalent of spare parts like Pronger got?

No wonder the Habs are circling the drain. That's lunacy.

Read the posts above.

 

[Randy Randerson]

My bad. I messed up calculating the years/age.

edited this into the above as well:

I also think you'll be severely disappointed in what the market is for Weber. In the last couple of years you see RFA contracts growing, and term on UFA contracts for players in their late 20's/30's shrinking, teams are learning not to pay for past performance. Pronger had also had 5 straight seasons of 66 or more games played at #1D level, where Weber missed most of last one and is expected to miss most of this one. Then there's the contract - Pronger was a UFA and Weber has another 6-8 years on the cap. I don't think you'd find many teams willing to call those players close to equivalent at the same point in time because of the injuries and contracts

 

[Hostile Offer]

This thread is surprisingly civil, hats off to that, but seriously, everything considering Weber's value is pretty much pointless until he comes back and we really know how the injury has affected on him.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

Read the posts above.

Yeah you seem to think that a Pronger who was as stated on an endless 66 pt pace has similar value to a 1D who used to be elite but is now hampered by injury after injury. When a player misses most of two consecutive seasons his value drops astronomically. No matter what position he plays. Not to mention his age and the fact that the team he plays for is soo horrible it is almost impossible to see him play himself back into being an elite and highly sought after player. That is if he is even able to play... which he is months away from at best.

Thinking that you would get any sort of package that makes trading PK in the first place more acceptable is sheer madness.

MB started it... and now he is going to have to not only take a bite of his self made shit sandwich but finish his plate of every last crumb and nugget.

I think that if and when they trade Webber... if MB is still around the habs fan base will turn into a ravenous pack demanding his blood and his first born as penance after they see how little they actually get in return for him.

 

[Randy Randerson]

This thread is surprisingly civil, hats off to that, but seriously, everything considering Weber's value is pretty much pointless until he comes back and we really know how the injury has affected on him.

agree with that, if Weber comes back and hasn't lost a step I think you'll find someone willing to give up a good package after a few months of play. Right now it's just a ton of risk for the acquiring team, both in assets and cap hit

 

[Baksfamous112]

edited this into the above as well:

I also think you'll be severely disappointed in what the market is for Weber. In the last couple of years you see RFA contracts growing, and term on UFA contracts for players in their late 20's/30's shrinking, teams are learning not to pay for past performance. Pronger had also had 5 straight seasons of 66 or more games played at #1D level, where Weber missed most of last one and is expected to miss most of this one. Then there's the contract - Pronger was a UFA and Weber has another 6-8 years on the cap. I don't think you'd find many teams willing to call those players close to equivalent at the same point in time because of the injuries and contracts

Yeah you seem to think that a Pronger who was as stated on an endless 66 pt pace has similar value to a 1D who used to be elite but is now hampered by injury after injury. When a player missesf most of two consecutive seasons his value drops astronomically. No matter what position he plays. Not to mention his age and the fact that the team he plays for is soo horrible it is almost impossible to see him play himself back into being an elite and highly sought after player. That is if he is even able to play... which he is months away from at best.

Thinking that you would get any sort of package that makes trading PK in the first place more acceptable is sheer madness.

MB started it... and now he is going to have to not only take a bite of his self made **** sandwich but finish his plate of every last crumb and nugget.

I think that if and when they trade Webber... if MB is still around the habs fan base will turn into a ravenous pack demanding his blood and his first born as penance after they see how little they actually get in return for him.

I think there’s an argument to make here. Shea Weber has played 78 games to a full season since 2008-2009 and only had one season over his carreer where he played less than that. I’m not sure if it was because of an injury or not. This is really his first « real injury » of his carreer. It’s also safe to say that he played like a real #1 for the last decade or so. Even in Montreal, his play was fantastic and up to par with what is expected of Shea Weber/ #1 D. Hell, he was on pace for 50-55 points (I think?) with both lega injured last year on a team that was nearly dead last in scoring. It was also quite easy to see that he was injured. I have season tickets very close to the ice and you could see during the commercial breaks/during the match that he was in pain, especially when he had to jump over the board to get on/off the ice.

Granted, he’s not prime Pronger but in the last two decades, he’s as close as you can find in terms of on-ice plays and points. A little bit less talented? Sure! But that’s why I said a similar return minus a 1st rounder and conditional pick would make sense.

I just checked out and Pronger was 34 years old, going 35 (traded June 2009 and turned 35 October 2009). So he was in fact older than Weber and almost 35 when that traded happened. He also had one year left (big risk vs someone who’s still signed for 7 years) at 6,25M/year on a 56.8M salary while Weber’s cap hit is 7.8M on a 79M salary cap. Basically, Pronger was taking s bigger % of the total cap than Weber’s.

Then he ended up signing a 7 years deal for 4.9M until he was 43 years old and that will still be (if we get at least 4% increase per year) a higher % of the cap than Weber at the same age (36, 37, 38, 39 years old etc...)

So yeah, if anything, the contract Weber has should make him more valuable in his 35+ years seasons than Pronger’s.

Now, how he comes back from injury is a mistery to everyone but one thing I do know is the Habs went the « long route » to make sure Weber’s fully recover. It is better explained here: Recrutes | Weber Explained

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think there’s an argument to make here. Shes Weber has played 78 games to a full season since 2008-2009 and only had one season over his carreer where he played less than that. I’m not sure if it was because of an injury or not. This is really his first « real injury » of his carreer. It’s also safe to say that he played like a real #1 for the last decade or so. Even in Montreal, his play was fantastic and up to par with what is expected of Shea Weber/ #1 D. Hell, he was on pace for 50-55 points (I think?) with both lega injured last year on a team that was nearly dead last in scoring. It was also quite easy to see that he was injured. I have season tickets very close to the ice and you could see during the commercial breaks/during the match that he was in pain, especially when he had to jump over the board to get on/off the ice.

Granted, he’s not prime Pronger but in the last two decades, he’s as close as you can find in terms of on-ice plays and points. A little bit less talented? Sure! But that’s why I said a similar return minus a 1st rounder and conditional pick would make sense.

I just checked out and Pronger was 34 years old, going 35 (traded June 2009 and turned 35 October 2009). So he was in fact older than Weber and almost 35 when that traded happened. He also had one year left (big risk vs someone who’s still signed for 7 years) at 6,25M/year on a 56.8M salary while Weber’s cap hit is 7.8M on a 79M salary cap. Basically, Pronger was taking s bigger % of the total cap than Weber’s.

Then he ended up signing a 7 years deal for 4.9M until he was 43 years old (7 years deal) and that will still be (if we get at least 4% increase per year) a higher % of the cap than Weber at the same age (36, 37, 38, 39 years old etc...)

So yeah, if anything, the contract Weber has should make him more valuable in his 35+ years seasons than Pronger’s.

Now, how he comes back from injury is a mistery to everyone but one thing I do know is the Habs went the « long route » to make sure Weber’s fully recover. It is better explained here: Recrutes | Weber Explained

Weber is hurt currently though, which makes all the difference. Like it won't be shocking if Weber comes back after missing more than a year of hockey and has declined significantly, the odds would probably say that's a likelihood given his age even without the injury.

and the trade was for a Pronger with no future obligation as well, the deal was given to him by the Flyers

The comparison isn't a bad one for age, cap hit or even talent level, but it doesn't account for changes in GM behaviour which has been towards paying for expected performance rather than past performance, which is changing what the landscape is for guys in their 30's. Look at the Lucic/Okposo/Ladd deals in contrast to the JVR/Neal deals for example, GM's are realizing that it's not a good idea to pay a guy into his late 30's. That spans across more than the NHL too, pro sports are getting younger. The NHL is more of a speed & skill game than it was in 2009 too, which would only magnify that position of not paying older guys

 

[Baksfamous112]

Weber is hurt currently though, which makes all the difference. Like it won't be shocking if Weber comes back after missing more than a year of hockey and has declined significantly, the odds would probably say that's a likelihood given his age even without the injury.

and the trade was for a Pronger with no future obligation as well, the deal was given to him by the Flyers

The comparison isn't a bad one for age, cap hit or even talent level, but it doesn't account for changes in GM behaviour which has been towards paying for expected performance rather than past performance, which is changing what the landscape is for guys in their 30's. Look at the Lucic/Okposo/Ladd deals in contrast to the JVR/Neal deals for example, GM's are realizing that it's not a good idea to pay a guy into his late 30's. That spans across more than the NHL too, pro sports are getting younger. The NHL is more of a speed & skill game than it was in 2009 too, which would only magnify that position of not paying older guys

There’s that to take into account too, you’re right. It really all comes down to how he perform once he’s back. Anyway, I don’t think he will be traded because if he does come back as good as he was before, we’ll need him and if he doesn’t, we will not get a return good enough to make us pull the trigger unless a GM desperate enough overpay (and has the right assets, not many team does) and that’s a long stretch.