Speculation: Shea Theodore Holdout/Trade?

[BattleBorn]

Shea Theodore's Picture Removed From City National Arena Scoreboard - SinBin.vegas

So he's almost definitely holding out, and he's also almost definitely a part of a Karlsson trade. This isn't new.

However, the team just took the picture that featured him down at CNA. Figure that's kind of news.

What do you all think is happening?

Click to read more...

 

[Boris Zubov]

I'm really not of fan of speculating or these types of threads, but since there's nothing else to talk about, I'll wager to say he's probably part of the trade package for EK. I'm hopeful anyway. As much as I like his upside, if he's a vital piece in a deal for EK, you trade him & don't look back.

If that's not the case, & he's simply holding out, he's getting bad advice from his agent. He's not arbitration eligible (obviously), & has zero leverage. The CBA is clear. At this point he needs to sign a one or two year deal & suck it up until he has arbitration rights.

 

[LadyStanley]

The sign displaying him was only finished last week. Yesterday I noted that the Shea Theodore sign had been removed (and replaced with another unidentifiable figure).

Teams cannot (legally) use his image unless he's under contract. (In the season he's unsigned.)

Teams may generate ticket renewal stuff with a pending RFA, but that can be an issue if the re-signing drags on. After a few situations, teams learned it was better to not promote them than take bigger PR hit with hold out (and having to meet player's demand to re-sign).

 

[BattleBorn]

I'm really not of fan of speculating or these types of threads, but since there's nothing else to talk about, I'll wager to say he's probably part of the trade package for EK. I'm hopeful anyway. As much as I like his upside, if he's a vital piece in a deal for EK, you trade him & don't look back.

If that's not the case, & he's simply holding out, he's getting bad advice from his agent. He's not arbitration eligible (obviously), & has zero leverage. The CBA is clear. At this point he needs to sign a one or two year deal & suck it up until he's an RFA.

Just trying to drag us into the season.
His leverage is his play. If he holds out, he’ll almost certainly get an extra couple bucks, and he’s definitely not a million dollar guy anymore.

I really expect RFA to be a major part of the next CBA negotiation. Guys like him should get paid a little earlier, IMO.

The sign displaying him was only finished last week. Yesterday I noted that the Shea Theodore sign had been removed (and replaced with another unidentifiable figure).

Teams cannot (legally) use his image unless he's under contract. (In the season he's unsigned.)

Teams may generate ticket renewal stuff with a pending RFA, but that can be an issue if the re-signing drags on. After a few situations, teams learned it was better to not promote them than take bigger PR hit with hold out (and having to meet player's demand to re-sign).

Good point on not using him while he’s not under contract. Kind of makes me wonder if this was a calculated thing. Spend $500 putting him up since he’s important just to take it down because he’s not under contract.

“Hey, you’re a huge part of this team, we know that. Shame you’re not under contract. That picture was awesome.”

 

[LadyStanley]

Cost of change very small in comparison to his salary.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Hopefully a trade. I say that not because I want Theodore gone but because he absolutely has not done enough in the league already to be holding out.

He may have a bright future but his past performance isn't enough to say RFA's like him should get paid more, teams are getting healthier and owners will fight that. McDavid is paid more, as many others deserve it too and get it. Not every RFA does and Theodore hasn't shown nearly enough to say he does.

 

[BattleBorn]

Hopefully a trade. I say that not because I want Theodore gone but because he absolutely has not done enough in the league already to be holding out.

He may have a bright future but his past performance isn't enough to say RFA's like him should get paid more, teams are getting healthier and owners will fight that. McDavid is paid more, as many others deserve it too and get it. Not every RFA does and Theodore hasn't shown nearly enough to say he does.

Eh, I completely disagree with that. He's made an impact for multiple seasons now, and is almost certainly worth more than a cool million. Move UFA up a year, him still making the money he'll make over the next two seasons without a holdout after what he's shown is kind of crazy. Especially when you consider the physical risks. This is a perfect time for a prove it to keep the relationship up.

I'd never support a lockout, but if I was negotiating for the players, I'd definitely fight for moving up UFA without question.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Eh, I completely disagree with that. He's made an impact for multiple seasons now, and is almost certainly worth more than a cool million. Move UFA up a year, him still making the money he'll make over the next two seasons without a holdout after what he's shown is kind of crazy. Especially when you consider the physical risks. This is a perfect time for a prove it to keep the relationship up.

I'd never support a lockout, but if I was negotiating for the players, I'd definitely fight for moving up UFA without question.

Err... he had 17 points over 53 games in two NHL seasons before last year. Last year he had a fine (but not blow you away) season, 29 points and played 61. That isn't multiple seasons of impact.

I never said he should make a million, because he won't make a million. He will get a long term, 5-6 year 25-30 million range or 3 year 10 million range. That's enough for him, RFA's don't need any more than that. RFA is a fine system as is. You need to be truly great to get way more money on your first deal out of ELC.

Health of the league and teams are most important. As well as not causing already high prices for consumers to rise even more so guys like Theodore can make an extra few million each year during years 23-26.

 

[BattleBorn]

Err... he had 17 points over 53 games in two NHL seasons before last year. Last year he had a fine (but not blow you away) season, 29 points and played 61. That isn't multiple seasons of impact.

I never said he should make a million, because he won't make a million. He will get a long term, 5-6 year 25-30 million range or 3 year 10 million range. That's enough for him, RFA's don't need any more than that. RFA is a fine system as is. You need to be truly great to get way more money on your first deal out of ELC.

Health of the league and teams are most important. As well as not causing already high prices for consumers to rise even more so guys like Theodore can make an extra few million each year during years 23-26.

I don’t think he’s going for term. In fact, I think it’s stupid on his part of he is. Why sell UFA years for early cash?

I just think he wants a little more cake for the next two years, and I’d be happy to give it to him if it makes the team happier. There’s no need to pay the minimum just because you can. At the same time, I get why you don’t want to pay more than necessary if you’re GMGM.

It’s just one of those situations.

 

[Boris Zubov]

I don’t think he’s going for term. In fact, I think it’s stupid on his part of he is. Why sell UFA years for early cash?

I just think he wants a little more cake for the next two years, and I’d be happy to give it to him if it makes the team happier. There’s no need to pay the minimum just because you can. At the same time, I get why you don’t want to pay more than necessary if you’re GMGM.

It’s just one of those situations.

I have to disagree when you say his play is his leverage, but I do agree the CBA has a very gray area for players who have outplayed their entry-level deals but aren't arbitration eligible. Certainly the team should want to keep him happy, but without those arbitration rights, he's basically hamstrung. I can't see him getting more than $2.75-3.25 million from the Knights if he's not traded. If he's holding out for Brady Skjei money, he's not going to be playing this season.

Perhaps a incentive laden bridge deal for Theo is in place, but McPhee has asked his agent to hold tight while the trade negotiations unfold. If the trade happens, Theo becomes instantly more valuable to Ottawa. If it falls apart, McPhee and Theo circle back to each other and move forward together.

I seriously think the team is doing him a favor by not signing him if he's part of a potential trade. Ottawa would have serious incentive to get Theo signed immediately if the trade happens. Theo would have more leverage with them because Ottawa would look silly to trade their all world Captain for a guy who's not in the lineup due to a contract holdout.

 

[Aurinko]

Everyday problems have found their way into the VGK dressing room.

 

[Vegan Knight]

I don’t think he’s going for term. In fact, I think it’s stupid on his part of he is. Why sell UFA years for early cash?

I just think he wants a little more cake for the next two years, and I’d be happy to give it to him if it makes the team happier. There’s no need to pay the minimum just because you can. At the same time, I get why you don’t want to pay more than necessary if you’re GMGM.

It’s just one of those situations.

If he wants a short term deal he has no leverage due to it being all RFA.

If he wants long term security then some of the leverage comes in.

He will get something in the low 3 million if he wants 2 or 3 years. He can get 5 something million if he's willing to commit for 5 or 6.

Lindholm signed only two years ago in the same situation and signed six year, 5.25 avg. That was a lower cap but Theodore has shown nothing close to what Lindholm did then. So the 5 is already accounting for the cap.

I just don't think he really has anything to stand on for a holdout

 

[Blue Goose]

Perhaps a incentive laden bridge deal for Theo is in place

Theo isn't eligible for an "incentive-laden" deal: performance bonuses are only available for guys still on their ELC's or guys over 35 years old on 1-year contracts. Unless you're talking about a signing bonus.

I just think he wants a little more cake for the next two years, and I’d be happy to give it to him if it makes the team happier. There’s no need to pay the minimum just because you can. At the same time, I get why you don’t want to pay more than necessary if you’re GMGM.

It’s just one of those situations.

Very true. It's a tough spot for both sides. I think GMGM wants to do a bridge deal, but he's also keeping an eye on the salary in the final year, since that will set the price of the Qualifying Offer for the next contract.

 

[LadyStanley]

How Nate Schmidt’s suspension impacts Shea Theodore’s contract dispute

Definitely more pressure to get deal done

 

[Vegan Knight]

How Nate Schmidt’s suspension impacts Shea Theodore’s contract dispute

Definitely more pressure to get deal done

Still more pressure for Theodore as he would be the one not playing or getting paid and building up the reputation as a difficult player.

 

[LadyStanley]

GMGM to face media Thursday.

Hoping he announces Theodore signing by then. (A week before full camp opens)

 

[LadyStanley]

McPhee says Knights ‘negotiating best we can’ with Shea Theodore

Clock's ticking

 

[Aurinko]

It's a hard place for both of the parties, Shea did fantastic but he also did get the chance to play with nice players...

 

[hackeyman]

Everyday problems have found their way into the VGK dressing room.

Care to elaborate ?

 

[LadyStanley]

Listening to SXM and there's a list of 6+ RFA holdouts through the league.

VGK not only team with issue

 

[Vegan Knight]

Listening to SXM and there's a list of 6+ RFA holdouts through the league.

VGK not only team with issue

How many of those are as significant holdouts as Theodore, though? Two maybe?

I wouldn't mind trying to go long term on him, 6 years. If they are trying to do that and keep the number as low as possible I say keep going. We saw it with Lindholm and other players that they eventually sign and for good price points even if teams hardball a bit with young RFAs like this.

 

[sabresfan65]

Actually about 4. I'd say Nylander in Toronto, Reinhart in Buffalo, Morrissey in Winnipeg and Nurse in Edmonton are as big or bigger than Theodore.

 

[CupInSIX]

 

[Vegan Knight]

Good, play hardball.

Team has all the leverage here and should get a good and long term deal.

Let's start managing that cap.

 

[Nevada Jones]

Was hoping that other than money/term the holdup on signing Teddy might have been him being part of a potential EK trade, and a signing would happen soon after the EK deal didn't get done.

Guess not.

What about trading Theodore? Anyone decent out there (D) we might be able to get? If not for Schmidly being absent first 20 games I wouldn't be starting to sweat now.

Also, maybe GMGM waiting to see if Hague/Brannstrom might be ready? Playing hardball with Teddy because he thinks one/the other/both can eat some minutes until Nate gets back?

Answers, damnit! I need answers! Can't stand unresolved situations.

Edit to say also forgot about Whitecloud!