LeBrun: Sharks & Karlsson ''on same page'' to try and get a trade done

[TGWL]

Gallagher + Edmundson + 31

Doubt Gallagher waives though

You don't have to worry about that being the problem.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

He should just go down with the ship

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What would the Sharks be looking for in this case? The NMC complicated things as well as the salary but what would expect as a realistic return? Is the priority to get out from the contract? Where is their tolerance in terms of how much of a discount they are willing to take to achieve that? I’m not sure…

The NMC may complicate things depending on what Grier and Karlsson have discussed in terms of moving forward. If a list of teams has been given to Grier then it's pretty straightforward where he's willing to go and what one would assume he'd nix. The priority is to get something done because Karlsson wants to compete and the Sharks aren't able to do so at this stage. I think they're willing to retain to a certain degree but probably not 40-50%. I think they're willing to take back cap dumps as part of it. And then depending on the specifics of the first two, the ask can be negotiated. Because the first two has a wide range of options, the price will partially be dependent on that but I don't think they'll take anything less than at least two 1st round pick caliber assets.

 

[EverTheCynic]

I always assumed Karlsson would waive his NMC for any team interested enough to make an offer, didn't think that was the blocker

Think you're right. Think there's less interest in Karlsson than people think

 

[MKGamingByMunish]

Soemthing around Nurse & Karlsson would work but Edmonton would have to add for sure

 

[TheBeard]

Think you're right. Think there's less interest in Karlsson than people think

I think there’s a ton of interest in the player, but the logistics have to work.

 

[Colt.45Orr]

EK to Chicago makes sense for the Hawks so they can maximize Bedard's value *and confidence in rookie year * on the PP.

 

[TheDoldrums]

EK to Chicago makes sense for the Hawks so they can maximize Bedard's value *and confidence in rookie year * on the PP.

If EK wants to keep losing he can do that in San Jose without having to move to the midwest. But it seems like he wants to contend.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Don't think Edmonton would be after him, don't have the assets to make a trade work and the Sharks want the moon and the stars for him before retention.

 

[Colt.45Orr]

If EK wants to keep losing he can do that in San Jose without having to move to the midwest. But it seems like he wants to contend.

Yeah, I just think that maybe Bedard hype gets it done in terms of EK projecting contender status during last years of contract.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

You don't have to worry about that being the problem.

Still the best off you've got in this thread, am I wrong?

Karlsson has a full NMC and wants to play for a contender. Why would he go there?

He would easily waive to Montreal. Think he would waive to whoever wants him, but they're better than the Sharks, they're close to Ottawa, they need a RHD, EK gets a chance to play in the spotlight, Montreal is a better city than San Jose, etc.

 

[Chainshot]

It'll be curious to see if he goes somewhere and where he goes. I also wonder if SJ are willing to retain some on his deal to make it workable in a new destination, as well as how much retention changes the value on the deal.

 

[trellaine201]

I am assuming he wants to goto a team close to a cup and like most players they want to goto Florida or Nevada.

 

[YP44]

Soemthing around Nurse & Karlsson would work but Edmonton would have to add for sure

would nurse waive?

 

[Czechboy]

No way Edmonton can afford him.

The deal from the Oil would not be a good one and EK has a NMC and has already put us on his no trade list in 2018 or so. Whenever Chia was the GM becausse he said we were on his list.

Does a guy living in Cali making 11.5 want to live in Edmonton for 4 years?

Edmonton is mostly money in and money out so the trade has to include Campbell, Yam and probably Foegele (I want Ceci on pair 3 as he's quite good and can step up when injuries happen, he's also not on a bad conctract).

So EK for Campbell, Yam and Foeg. Roughly 11mil for 11mil. I'd love it but I imagine sharks fan see a really bad deal, don't blame them.

Then, after this, negotiate for salary retention:

what does our first reduce it by?
what does Holloway/Bourgault reduce it by?
what does Bro reduce it by?

Shitty offer for sure but the Oil aren't in a great spot to get an 11.5 million dollar dman with a NMC.

I also think that Sharks fans will be very underwhelmed with the return when he is traded.
NMC, wants to be on a contender and 33. Man that narrows down options. What did Kane get when he said he'd only waive for NYR?

A 2nd, 4th and AHL players

 

[Magic Man]

Matt Murray + T.J. Brodie (at 2.5M per for 1 year) + Pick #28 + Nick Robertson for Erik Karlsson (at 9M per for 4 years)

Brodie replaces Karlsson in San Jose. At 2.5M he becomes a highly flippable asset for whenever the best deal presents itself. They can retain a further 50% this summer or at the deadline and flip him at 1.25M.

San Jose also has a hole in goal and they could ride out a year of Murray. Maybe, he plays his way into a draft pick at the deadline. The first year hurts on the cap for San Jose, but they're rebuilding, they benefit in years 2-4. Meanwhile, Toronto retain on Brodie in year #1 which means they pay essentially 11.5 still in year 1 for Karlsson, which I thought was fair. Then, in years 2-4 their commitment is lighter again as Karlsson ages.

 

[TheBeard]

I am assuming he wants to goto a team close to a cup and like most players they want to goto Florida or Nevada.

Vegas has nowhere close the space or the pieces to get him.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Even at 7.5 he is not a steal. He is 33 years old with a major injury history.

I see what you mean, and I personally agree with this --- he's a risk. But my "steal" assessment was based on the idea that, if EK65 was a UFA right now, do you think his next contract would be less than 7.5x4? I think on the open market some GM might throw him 9x4, esp. with rising cap. Not saying I would do this, but I think it's likely some GM would.

 

[Grinner]

would nurse waive?

I rather keep Karlssons contract than swap it for Nurses. Oof!

 

[Grinner]

Matt Murray + T.J. Brodie (at 2.5M per for 1 year) + Pick #28 + Nick Robertson for Erik Karlsson (at 9M per for 4 years)

Brodie replaces Karlsson in San Jose. At 2.5M he becomes a highly flippable asset for whenever the best deal presents itself. They can retain a further 50% this summer or at the deadline and flip him at 1.25M.

San Jose also has a hole in goal and they could ride out a year of Murray. Maybe, he plays his way into a draft pick at the deadline. The first year hurts on the cap for San Jose, but they're rebuilding, they benefit in years 2-4. Meanwhile, Toronto retain on Brodie in year #1 which means they pay essentially 11.5 still in year 1 for Karlsson, which I thought was fair. Then, in years 2-4 their commitment is lighter again as Karlsson ages.

Not without Knies.

.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

That's all well and good from a team-building perspective, but is ownership willing to swallow that pill considering costs?

I mean at this point it's either they retain a good chunk of the contract or they have to keep Karlsson and pay him in full.

 

[Menzinger]

The problem for the Sharks here is that capspace is probably the best asset they'll receive in any trade involving Karlsson (and maybe a pick) but they're also going to need to use some retention - he's going to need to be under 10 mil for most potential partners to be interested

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Tough sell to get an owner to spend 20 million on nothing over the next 4 years

Think of it this way, he's spending money to get money (assets) back in a trade.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Think of it this way, he's spending money to get money (assets) back in a trade.

It's not just spending 20 million to get back assets. It's 20 million + whatever ticket + jersey revenue the Sharks generate by having all star Karlsson on their team. He was the only reason the Sharks got mentioned at all last season, they have nothing else going for them. He will at least put fans in the seats.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No way Edmonton can afford him.

The deal from the Oil would not be a good one and EK has a NMC and has already put us on his no trade list in 2018 or so. Whenever Chia was the GM becausse he said we were on his list.

Does a guy living in Cali making 11.5 want to live in Edmonton for 4 years?

Edmonton is mostly money in and money out so the trade has to include Campbell, Yam and probably Foegele (I want Ceci on pair 3 as he's quite good and can step up when injuries happen, he's also not on a bad conctract).

So EK for Campbell, Yam and Foeg. Roughly 11mil for 11mil. I'd love it but I imagine sharks fan see a really bad deal, don't blame them.

Then, after this, negotiate for salary retention:

what does our first reduce it by?
what does Holloway/Bourgault reduce it by?
what does Bro reduce it by?

Shitty offer for sure but the Oil aren't in a great spot to get an 11.5 million dollar dman with a NMC.

I also think that Sharks fans will be very underwhelmed with the return when he is traded.
NMC, wants to be on a contender and 33. Man that narrows down options. What did Kane get when he said he'd only waive for NYR?

A 2nd, 4th and AHL players

I agree that it seems unlikely that Edmonton can afford him especially if they're trying to slip Campbell in there as money being returned like he isn't a significant cap dump that needs value attached to him to get moved. Karlsson wants to compete and it was close so I doubt Edmonton is on his no-go list. Karlsson's value in a vacuum to the Sharks is probably in the range of two to three 1st round pick caliber assets. Campbell's cost to dump him is probably similar. I don't think Edmonton can afford such a move like that.

My expectation for a return is around two 1st round caliber assets, a couple cap dumps of the short term variety, and to retain somewhere between 18-30%.