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Sharks Elimination Number/Draft Pick Scenarios 2015 (UPD: Sharks 9th in lottery)

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Episkey

Episkey

Nitrox
Mar 12, 2013
4,197
12
California
I did this last year and people seemed to like it so I thought I would start it again this year. With the final stretch of the season coming up and just over 20 games left, it's time to start looking at possible playoff scenarios. This year is not as clear cut as last where it was either pass the Ducks or stay ahead of the Kings, with basically no competition from anyone else in the Pacific. Now with ANA, LA, VAN, CGY, and SJ fighting for playoff spots, things will be a bit more interesting this time around. Like last year, I will try to update this every night.


Updated 2-20-15


Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 46*. This translates to a record of 22-0-0 over the remaining 22 games to clinch WITHOUT ANY HELP (Losses from other teams). *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 46*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 95pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 13-8-1 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 47.7% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Minnesota

-If the Wild continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-8-1 or better to stay ahead and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 20-2-0 or better to stay ahead and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 17-3-2 or better to stay ahead and clinch a wild card spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 1WC. Winnipeg
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Calgary
1C. Nashville vs 2WC. San Jose
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Pittsburgh
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Washington
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit


As things get closer to the end of the season I'll start doing scenarios like staying in front of LA or VAN, etc.
Click to read more...
 
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SJSharksfan39

SJSharksfan39

Registered User
Oct 11, 2008
27,331
5,444
San Jose, CA
Like Jim Carry says in Dumb and Dumber, "So you're saying there's a chance". Might as well hope in something, considering if the Sharks do miss the playoffs, they will probably be picking in the mid to late teens again.
 
Episkey

Episkey

Nitrox
Mar 12, 2013
4,197
12
California
Updated 2-21-15​


Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 46*. This translates to a record of 22-0-0 over the remaining 22 games to clinch WITHOUT ANY HELP (Losses from other teams). *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 46*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 95pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 13-7-1 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 35.8% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Calgary

-If the Flames continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-7-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Flames continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 15-6-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Flames go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 17-3-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 1WC. Winnipeg
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Los Angeles
1C. Nashville vs 2WC. Calgary
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Pittsburgh
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Washington
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit
 

stator

Registered User
Apr 17, 2012
5,033
1,019
San Jose
Sharks have moved up to 15th with last nights loss. They should have a realistic change to finish the season at 12th or 11th place. The issue is too many teams are well out in front like Sabres and Oilers while the Sharks have played the most games in the league at this time. But so has Edmonton, but not the Sabres who are in 1st place with two game in hand over the Sharks.

When the season concludes, Sharks will need to win the draft lottery to unseat either the Sabres or Oilers to win the Connor Cup.
 
Coy

Coy

Registered User
Feb 25, 2014
2,206
39
SF
We will win 12 in a row then lose out the rest of the games and not make the playoffs.
 
Episkey

Episkey

Nitrox
Mar 12, 2013
4,197
12
California
Updated 2-22-15​


Sharks Perspective

-The Sharks magic number to clinch the playoffs is currently 46*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-The Sharks magic number to clinch a Pacific divisional (non-wildcard) playoff spot is 46*. *We do not control our own destiny as of now.

-To meet the projected Western conference playoff cutoff of 96pts, the Sharks need to finish the season 14-7-0 or better.

-According to SportsClubStats, the Sharks have a 35.8% chance of making the playoffs.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Minnesota

-If the Wild continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 14-7-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 20-0-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Wild go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 18-3-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a wild card spot ahead of Winnipeg

-If the Jets continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 14-7-0 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 13-7-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.

-If the Jets go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 17-3-1 or better to pass them and clinch a wild card spot.


To clinch a Pacific divisional spot ahead of Los Angeles (We play them one more time)

-If the Kings continue at their season pace, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 14-6-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Kings continue at their current pace (L10), the Sharks need to finish with a record of 17-4-0 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.

-If the Kings go rest of season at .750, the Sharks need to finish with a record of 18-2-1 or better to pass them and clinch a divisional spot.


Current Playoff Matchups

West
1P. Anaheim vs 1WC. Winnipeg
2P. Vancouver vs 3P. Los Angeles
1C. Nashville vs 2WC. Minnesota
2C. St. Louis vs 3C. Chicago

East
1M. NY Islanders vs 1WC. Boston
2M. NY Rangers vs 3M. Pittsburgh
1A. Montreal vs 2WC. Boston
2A. Tampa Bay vs 3A. Detroit
 
Last edited:
tahoesharksfan

tahoesharksfan

Old-Timer
Apr 29, 2014
2,321
1,553
The Lake
First, thanks for running this thread!!

Second, it looks like 14 wins is the target number right now on most accounts. That's basically 2/3 of our remaining games. Sigh....:cry:
 

stator

Registered User
Apr 17, 2012
5,033
1,019
San Jose
SoCalSharkFan said:
First, thanks for running this thread!!

Second, it looks like 14 wins is the target number right now on most accounts. That's basically 2/3 of our remaining games. Sigh....:cry:
Click to expand...

As usual, all roads to the playoffs and winning go through Niemi unfortunately. Either he continues to leak goals like a sieve, or revert back to form a couple of years ago where he was carrying the defense.

I don't invision Niemi revert back to that form, so this season conclusion is about draft position position to me. That's actually not bad considered how crummy draft positions of the Sharks for years due to consistently making the playoffs.
 
Eighth Fret

Eighth Fret

Registered User
Jan 11, 2011
2,403
9
Aside from the Sharks toiling away in mediocrity, the worst part of this is LA's cakewalk to the conference finals... Vancouver, and then winner of Ducks/Jets? Pshh.
 
Fistfullofbeer

Fistfullofbeer

Moderator
May 9, 2011
30,374
9,059
Whidbey Island, WA
It is going to be tough to get in. Our record in the last 21 games is 9-9-3. I think both the Flames and Jets need to start losing for us to get in. I dont think we are going to pass the Wild or Kings at this point.
 
Evincar

Evincar

I have found the way
Aug 10, 2012
6,462
778
As a fan of this team for 20 years its going to be a tough pill to swallow if they dont make the playoffs, especially since they have only missed it once since 1997.

That being said this team needs a major rebuild in the worst way, from management to the players (Thornton, Marleau need to go). Plus, the higher the draft pick the better.
 
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