Seventieslord's thought exercise on goalie talent

[Canadiens1958]

Adding to Mike's post. It does not take long to recognize the unfixable or simply bad.

Watching 3-5 minutes of a single letter Midget practice or game is more than enough.

 

[FerrisRox]

I am assuming this is already known out there, but there's the classic story of Pekka Rinne being drafted based him being seen in warmup...he hardly ever played for his pro team, Ray Shero flew halfway around the world on a hot tip to watch this kid take warmup, they pick him and they're off and running...point is, if you're good, it doesn't take long to identify fundamental principles of the position...easy to tell if someone is a total yard sale out there or not...

Cute story, shame it's gross simplification of the truth.

The Predators did not draft Pekka Rinne based on watching him in warm up, and it's a little alarming that you think that is the case. Shero saw him take two warm ups, but the Rinne was heavily scouted by the Predators Finnish scout for a long period of time which led to Shero being summoned there in the first place.

Pekka Rinne was spotted by one of the Predators Finnish scouts Janne Kekalainen. The Predators former assistant General Manager Paul Fenton is on record as saying Kekalainen "deserves the majority of the credit" for finding Rinne. Kekalainen's history with Rinne goes back to him playing in a Junior league where he stood out for his size. As he progressed, and grew stronger, Kekalainen began to pay more attention to him and his mobility and athleticism really stood out while he toiled as the back up to Nicklas Backstrom.

Knowing he would need another voice in the war room to back him up, Kekalainen brought in the Predators Swedish scout Lucas Bergman to watch Rinne. There were a few other attempts to have some Nashville scouts (including Shero, who was the assistant GM) watch him play but Rinne remained on the bench in those games. If Kekalainen was going to get his guy, it would have to be based on his glowing reports, the tape he had filed and his ability to sway the room. The Predators had a few extra picks late in that draft and Kekalainen, backed up by Bergman, made his case and the club ultimately decided to take a flyer on him in the eighth round.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Point is, Preds didn't have much on him...no more than two actual games' worth of reports and it was Shero that pushed them over the top from seeing a warmup (or two, depending on who you ask). "Gross simplification" was all that was needed to convey the point...though you expanded with some details, some of them are incorrect anyhow. But it's not the point of the conversation or of the thread...

 

[FerrisRox]

Point is, Preds didn't have much on him...no more than two actual games' worth of reports and it was Shero that pushed them over the top from seeing a warmup (or two, depending on who you ask). "Gross simplification" was all that was needed to convey the point...though you expanded with some details, some of them are incorrect anyhow. But it's not the point of the conversation or of the thread...

Which of them are incorrect?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Unimportant to the thread and even to your own point. The details and order of operations is not quite right...but, again, no matter.

 

[FerrisRox]

Unimportant to the thread and even to your own point. The details and order of operations is not quite right...but, again, no matter.

The details and order come from the scout who actually found Rinne so now you are not only suggesting that NHL General Managers don't know as much about NHL goaltenders as you do, but now you know more about the scouting of Pekka Rinne than the actual scout that scouted Pekka Rinne.

This is getting truly ridiculous.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yeah, my details of the event also come from two guys who worked with the Preds at the time...regardless, like I said, it's not crucial to the thread.

It is ridiculous, and it's been that way since you first responded in such a belligerent way. Almost everyone else is able to have a conversation...you're struggling...continually...

Maybe take a few shifts off, bud...

 

[solidmotion]

let me just say that apart from a couple belligerent turns this is one of the more interesting threads i've read on here lately, rare to see this kind of nitty gritty detail outside of statistical analyses, esp. when it comes to goalies... talent evaluation around here too often comes down to "eye test," hyperbole... would like to see more stuff like this... carry on...

 

[quoipourquoi]

let me just say that apart from a couple belligerent turns this is one of the more interesting threads i've read on here lately, rare to see this kind of nitty gritty detail outside of statistical analyses, esp. when it comes to goalies... talent evaluation around here too often comes down to "eye test," hyperbole... would like to see more stuff like this... carry on...

I’m just going to cancel the top-100 so I can talk about the changes in stick composition and the subsequent effects on glovehand positioning.

 

[bluesfan94]

Ah ATD follower. Should have read the tea leaves. Volume accumulation of data. Bios are focused on a player.

Scout Midget AAA.

Goalies or skaters, clips show basic skating, playing technique, on ice recognition,etc.

Game play by play in old papers. Who the puck carriers/rushers were, sides attacked, defensive abilities. Line changes, coaching. I focus on the game

I haven't done the ATD in a while; my favorite part was the historical research,

Midget AAA is hardly going to help me evaluate Harry Lumley.

Yeah, I understand that, but clips don't show enough about actual success. There are plenty of players in all sports that look good in clips and don't have the same on-ice/field/court/etc success.

Again, I've read them. While I find value in them, they hardly provide enough for me to truly understand a player. And that's because they aren't designed to do so. They're designed to engage the reader and explain the individual game.

 

[bluesfan94]

Re: video/looks. I am to the point right now where I can see some players play for a handful of shifts and give a complete run down of what they are...some players are tougher to get a beat on, and you need a couple games...but, talking NHL draft eligibles here for a minute, if I see them for a fourth or fifth time, I am bordering on over-scouting territory there...

I am assuming this is already known out there, but there's the classic story of Pekka Rinne being drafted based him being seen in warmup...he hardly ever played for his pro team, Ray Shero flew halfway around the world on a hot tip to watch this kid take warmup, they pick him and they're off and running...point is, if you're good, it doesn't take long to identify fundamental principles of the position...easy to tell if someone is a total yard sale out there or not...

That's fair, and perhaps it's my own inability to evaluate that is the problem, but at the same time, plenty of good scouts draft busts.

 

[Canadiens1958]

I haven't done the ATD in a while; my favorite part was the historical research,

Midget AAA is hardly going to help me evaluate Harry Lumley.

When Harry Lumley first played in the NHL he was the age of a Midget AAA player.

 

[Michael Farkas]

That's fair, and perhaps it's my own inability to evaluate that is the problem, but at the same time, plenty of good scouts draft busts.

And every goalie we're gonna talk about gives up two goals a game...scouting is a set of skills too, takes practice...similar to that of an athlete in that sense, just different skills need to be honed of course...being able to bench press a school bus doesn't help me scout much...

 

[solidmotion]

I’m just going to cancel the top-100 so I can talk about the changes in stick composition and the subsequent effects on glovehand positioning.

...one of the more interesting threads...

 

[quoipourquoi]

Too late @solidmotion ! My mind is made up!

 

[bluesfan94]

And every goalie we're gonna talk about gives up two goals a game...scouting is a set of skills too, takes practice...similar to that of an athlete in that sense, just different skills need to be honed of course...being able to bench press a school bus doesn't help me scout much...

Yeah, but I'd be damned impressed if you could do it. I'm just saying that scouting isn't the end all be all. We all enter with our own set of biases about what makes someone "good." At the end of the day, statistics help tell us that answer, as does voting by NHL GMs, who have all trained their scouting muscles. Plus, regardless of your scouting muscle development, it's a completely different set of muscles when scouting goalies of old.

A goalie's primary job is to make saves and stop goals. While I don't subscribe to the holiness of SV% and GAA, discounting them is saying that style is better than substance, in my eyes. And discounting the votes of the NHL GMs, whether in a weak year (with the weak competition being guys higher on the list) or not, just seems to be an egotistical statement that your personal eye test is better than that of 30 highly trained guys.

 

[bluesfan94]

When Harry Lumley first played in the NHL he was the age of a Midget AAA player.

And when Tim Thomas started he was much older. Lumley was the first name that came to mind, it just happened to be the right name to prove your point. My point is that how does watching Midget AAA hockey help me? I understand that there's obviously bad, but Tim Thomas cannot obviously be bad or else he wouldn't have made the NHL, let alone won two Vezinas and put up objectively good numbers.

Plus, other goalie experts here have said that he looks good on film, if unorthodox.

Also, I just want to reiterate that I'm really enjoying this conversation. I enjoy challenging both my and other methods of evaluation.

 

[Canadiens1958]

And when Tim Thomas started he was much older. Lumley was the first name that came to mind, it just happened to be the right name to prove your point. My point is that how does watching Midget AAA hockey help me?

It doesn't. Different backgrounds.Just exchanging options.

Basic point is putting information in context on a time line.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yeah, but I'd be damned impressed if you could do it. I'm just saying that scouting isn't the end all be all. We all enter with our own set of biases about what makes someone "good." At the end of the day, statistics help tell us that answer, as does voting by NHL GMs, who have all trained their scouting muscles. Plus, regardless of your scouting muscle development, it's a completely different set of muscles when scouting goalies of old.

A goalie's primary job is to make saves and stop goals. While I don't subscribe to the holiness of SV% and GAA, discounting them is saying that style is better than substance, in my eyes. And discounting the votes of the NHL GMs, whether in a weak year (with the weak competition being guys higher on the list) or not, just seems to be an egotistical statement that your personal eye test is better than that of 30 highly trained guys.

Bruh, do you even lift? This is the internet...I put up about 10 plates, no big deal...

Listen, I heavily lean towards scouting because I trust my eyes...in all honesty, my eyes for this game have opened a lot doors for me in hockey to date...I'm not about to kill the goose laying the golden egg here...am I perfect at it? No, of course not. Not even close. But everything I miss on, I go back and figure out why. I was talking to a goalie coach this past summer over a couple of pops, and he has some high-end clients, guys that you watch every Saturday night and I was asking about work habits of some goalies in terms of video...and he told me that some of his guys obsess over goals against, they watch them over and over trying to figure out where they made the mistake and they ask him all these questions and he goes, "ya know, sometimes you gotta ground them and tell them, they're gonna give up another goal again some time, somewhere...it's gonna happen...you got be mentally prepared for that occurrence..." I'm pretty close to that myself, I can't stand it though...I have to figure out why...and what sucks is, sometimes it's not even something that can be seen...guys like Stefan Legein, for instance, they just had another factor in play that you can't account for without getting to know them (which is a bigger part of it than people realize)...

Anyway...bottom line is, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle...as it tends to be...the stat or set of stats is not currently available to make any noteworthy deductions from, therefore, I'll go to the more reliable answer for me...

Though, lastly, I've never discounted the NHL GM vote...I embrace it fully, it's more on my side than it is "the field"...specifically in 2011...(in 2009, I mean, hell, what could they do...three fringe to average NHL goalies were dueling on the three best defensive teams in the league...all the good goalies retired, all the future goalies didn't start yet...)

 

[seventieslord]

You and TCG were the only ones I recognized.

And if you have put any of your "vertical angle" material to paper (or more likely pixel) I would be *very* interested in reading it!

I'm one of the other two they brought in for help. (I like to keep quiet about it if I can help it)

 

[Michael Farkas]

Also, is this list public anywhere? Or is it paywall'd/in a magazine somewhere...?

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Also, is this list public anywhere? Or is it paywall'd/in a magazine somewhere...?

In a magazine:

Top 100 Goalies

 

[Killion]

... he told me that some of his guys obsess over goals against, they watch them over and over trying to figure out where they made the mistake and they ask him all these questions and he goes, "ya know, sometimes you gotta ground them and tell them, they're gonna give up another goal again some time, somewhere...it's gonna happen...you got be mentally prepared for that occurrence...

Ah, thats not healthy nor is it helpful, a Goalie "obsessing over goals", pucks that got by. Not unless he's got a weakness, low stick side, low glove side, top shelf left or 5 hole or whatever. Then it would be a concern & corrected at the very next practice. If he's got a weakness like that however, prolly wouldnt have gotten past double or single A hockey. Cant be "obsessing over goals". Shake them off. And no, you dont "just accept that some will get by".

Strive for perfection..... perhaps some find that "obsessive" however the psychological aspects of playing the position & successfully in terms of technique, self confidence etc cannot be understated. You wont last long you obsess over goals, cant correct your technical & or mental errors, preparedness. Sometimes its something as simple as a blind spot, mask aint right, that sort of thing.... others, guys just a weak minded sieve. Uh? You go in there thinking, projecting... "no, your not scoring on me tonight, not ever Meatstick". Goals are scored if youve got a good Goalie as the result of a series of mistakes, breakdowns, failure to execute.

 

[Canadiens1958]

And every goalie we're gonna talk about gives up two goals a game...scouting is a set of skills too, takes practice...similar to that of an athlete in that sense, just different skills need to be honed of course...being able to bench press a school bus doesn't help me scout much...

Doesn't do anything for the school bus either.

Just arrive early to see the two goals.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Ah, thats not healthy nor is it helpful, a Goalie "obsessing over goals", pucks that got by. Not unless he's got a weakness, low stick side, low glove side, top shelf left or 5 hole or whatever. Then it would be a concern & corrected at the very next practice. If he's got a weakness like that however, prolly wouldnt have gotten past double or single A hockey. Cant be "obsessing over goals". Shake them off. And no, you dont "just accept that some will get by".

Strive for perfection..... perhaps some find that "obsessive" however the psychological aspects of playing the position & successfully in terms of technique, self confidence etc cannot be understated. You wont last long you obsess over goals, cant correct your technical & or mental errors, preparedness. Sometimes its something as simple as a blind spot, mask aint right, that sort of thing.... others, guys just a weak minded sieve. Uh? You go in there thinking, projecting... "no, your not scoring on me tonight, not ever Meatstick". Goals are scored if youve got a good Goalie as the result of a series of mistakes, breakdowns, failure to execute.

No mulligans. Just be ready for the next shot.