Seventieslord's thought exercise on goalie talent

Michael Farkas

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I think this has been one of the most interesting discussions in a while. It's refreshing when someone takes a seemingly bold stance (judging by the outrage it caused) and backs it up somehow plausibly. At least it gives new perspectives and takes on subjects that may go dismissed as done deals. I for one have never really questioned Thomas' greatness. While I'm still not convinced he's a talentless scrub who just got lucky, Mike has given a plenty of new information and views on the topic which I really appreciate. And I don't think he's trolling either.

Of course I'm not trolling, that's for children. Trolls are more succinct, don't waste a lot of time. I typed for hours in this thread as it is haha - and what you're saying is exactly the point. I don't have to be right here about this particular player and this particular season (I am, but that's another story ;) just kidding, relax, mudslingers)...it's about viewing the game through a different lens and looking at things in a different way. A lot of times people see the game but don't watch it...it's 2D vs 3D in a way...there's more dimension to it than it is reduced to for simplicity sometimes and when you take on these major projects - and I don't want my name attached to anything that sucks, I want it to be the best it can be or not at all - it's important that we see things from more angles...

C1958 is a poster that does this often...he's not nearly as wordy as I am, maybe to a fault haha, but he lays out avenues that ought to be pursued that we're not pursuing...considerations that ought to be considered that we're not considering...he's not always right. I'm not always right. Seventies is...well, it's not important what seventies is right now...the fact is, people that come into this type of discussion bull-headed with a scary amount of brand loyalty to something that they don't fully understand themselves will not produce quality conversation or result. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say...
 

FerrisRox

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This is your second post I believe in the thread, it's the first to cite save pct. figures...

Yes I mentioned the goals against and save percentage of both Thomas and Rask from the same season and asked you to account for the large discrepancy between both (which you ignored) and the inverse ratings you gave each of them.

From there you decided that I was obsessed with save percentage and a record that I never once brought up.
 

Canadiens1958

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I guess I'm just a little confused how you can have him bottom of the barrel in terms of talent but at the same time say it's a defensible position that he was the best in the NHL.

Anyway, I don't want to fight with you on Thomas, because any defense I make of him would only be half-assed compared to these other guys. The point was not to fight about Thomas and it certainly wasn't to get you into a fight with other guys about Thomas.

Barrels do get turned upside down.

Many weaker goalies, Lalime, Leighton, Gerber, Robert Champoux, Frank McCool, others have produced interesting streaks or games.

Tim Thomas, better than the listed, had a few longer streaks.

Logical coherence holds.
 
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Michael Farkas

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Well, I guess meaningless is perhaps too strong, but you're eschewing them in favor of your own subjective opinion. And given that goalkeeping is much much different now, using prior film and trying to mirror your evaluations here to those players seems objectively impossible. It also seems to me that your argument about Thomas' trophies is disingenuous. You're saying he had weak competition and that's why he won those trophies, and yet you rank that weak competition above him.

Yes, that objective is to win, which Thomas certainly did. For goalies more specifically, that goal is to stop pucks from going into your own net, which Thomas certainly did. There's a question of how much statistics and the eye test should be valued. But given that we don't have enough film - or at least I don't believe we have enough film - to have watched every player to have played hockey, then there must be some metric we use. Statistics, you have said, do not allow for ranking. Neither do trophies. Rather, it's this subjective evaluation of talent which is impossible for us to utilize for every player at all times in a consistent manner. Nor do we watch enough film to be consistent and confident in our evaluations. Perhaps I speak too broadly, but I doubt someone is able to claim they watch so much hockey film that they can confidently and consistently compare every player across eras. Hell, I watch a fair amount of hockey now and I don't always feel like I can do that just when comparing current NHL players.

I don't think stats are the end all be all of evaluation, but comparing stats is important, particularly when those stats are put up on the same team. I may have missed it, but that's one of Thomas' arguments that is most compelling - Rask put up substantially worse numbers than Thomas on the same team utilizing the same system, and yet Rask is placed several tiers above Thomas.

Subjective opinion is a dirty term any more, but statistics are subjective too. Just because you can type it into a calculator doesn't make it objective all of a sudden. Corsi is a great example of this...when it stopped being useful to NHL clubs, it was made public (as previous "advanced" stats have a history of doing...save pct/efficiency in 1983, plus/minus in 1967, individual ice times, individual shot totals, etc.) and, as the masses tend to do, they go all shiny-new-toy-syndrome with it and nominate at it as the greatest thing since the CD player...but when you look at it and you look at what it measures, it's incredibly biased...low-hockey-sense, shoot-from-everywhere defensemen (Cody Franson, for instance) are heroes in this...streak-and-shoot wingers are lauded (Tyler Kennedy, who just stares down at his feet for the 30 seconds he is on the ice skating as fast as he can in a straight line, up and back)...but checking centers are damaged. You're taking a number and assigning obscene weight to it and going "look, I'm being objective because I chose this stat over all other stats to be the most valuable" - that's free range subjectivity you're farming there, fella...on a dumber scale, it's like saying "Rod Langway never finished top 10 in points...he can't be that good." ...well, you're gonna get an awful lot of forwards on your list if that's the metric you assign obscene weight to.

Goaltending is much different now. You rate the goaltenders among their peers, that's where you start. That's an imminently achievable task.

"Weak competition" refers to the era of goaltending as a whole. Not individuals in a season. Look at the Vezina trophy ballots and look at the Stanley Cup Finals goalie matchups from, say, 1984 to 2004, then 2006 to present...it's a sick joke what we've put out there in the post-lockout era...shows that coaching has advanced to such a great degree and what players can be compensated for and which ones can't in today's game...look at how rosters are built...look what left the game, good goalies left and when good goalies couldn't be found to replace them, we just replaced the bad defensemen instead...look how much more mobile defensemen are now, how much better they are at moving the puck...I spend entire Monday mornings working with my defensemen on escapability, partner support, zone exits, etc. every week for years...there's no way that would have been the case 20 years ago...we would have worked on clap-bombs and crease clearing...the league compensates to accommodate for its weakest link(s) as part of the natural ebb and flow of sport...

Goaltending dries up, so now looks who's coming to dinner...Pronger is in three SCF with three different teams in five years, Chara, Doughty, Lidstrom...guys that keep pucks out of their own net...Dan Girardi was in the Norris race in 2012...Suter, Bouwmeester, Vlasic, Seabrook, these guys are logging obscene amounts of time because they're protecting (potentially) a weak link...now, as the goaltending talent starts to re-percolate, look at where the game moves...now Erik Karlsson, now Brent Burns, these are the Norris guys...PK Subban is in a Final, Burns is in a Final, Klingberg is in the Norris discussion, Letang is in a Final, Byfuglien is going deep...this is, in part, to compensate for a lack of complete centers in the league that can be impactful without the puck in all three zones...so it's puck carrying defensemen (all of which that I just named are that, multi-line carriers) that rule the day...

Look at where the MVP voting shifts to now...last few years, Price and Ovechkin vying for one, Kane wins one over Crosby and winger Jamie Benn, nothing you can do about McDavid in 2017, I mean that was just unreal, kid's a wagon and he's all alone...2018 Taylor Hall beats out MacKinnon, LW Giroux joins the fray...obviously there's going to always be centers in this race, of course...but there seems to be a little bit of a shift in what talent is available league wide and the league will scramble to compensate for that...this happens throughout history...

The metric isn't terribly useful if it doesn't tell the story accurately. So in the same way you're throwing your hands up and going "well, we probably don't have enough film or time to figure this out...so let's just settle for this and hope it works out...even though we know it doesn't..." Right? We know it's not a great measure, right? We see the variably when players leave certain teams/situations and how it has a direct impact, I trust? We see how it doesn't follow goalies around like it's tied directly to their talent. That (settling on save pct. and going, "well, we tried...kinda..."), to me, is an extremist position...you guys think me rating players on their talent is an extreme position because it's "subjective" or it's [this] or it's [that]...well, I find your position to be similarly absurd, with all due respect. Like it or lump it, if you want something productive, we're going to have to meet in the middle. One might suggest, if you're a football fan, to look at Pro Football Focus' work...video meets analytics...if you knew what NHL teams were doing right now in their analytics departments (hint: it's not corsi nonsense...they blew by that years ago...hell, even richer major junior teams are past that), you'd see that at the proprietary level they're doing that kind of work...teams like analytics, I like analytics, my dog likes analytics...but they gotta point you in the right direction, they have to have foundations in the game...you can't reverse engineer these square numbers and jam them into a round hole and go, "ok, done..." - will never work. Never, ever, ever, ever....ever. For goaltending, there's a really simple framework/data point to use...goals allowed. Easily located by way of video, fewer data points to have to deal with (as opposed to passes received or something for skaters) and you start to evaluate them based on quality and timeliness (as those are things that impact games...saves don't win games, save don't affect games...you can take a wheelbarro of saves to the bank and you won't get one thin dime for them) and you start there and see where you get...I tracked this for Pittsburgh for a time, creating an adjusted GAA when Fleury and Murray were sharing the nets...paints a different picture than general averaging stats do...point is, don't give up so easily...if you want a quality product, you need to do quality work...quality work is harder to do than sorting by save pct. on NHL.com...

Rask vs. Thomas thing already explained. Requires nothing more I don't think. The idea that they played in the same conditions is flawed or we have to admit that Rask did better (he's like the all time leader in the stat du jour, and led the league in everything y'all like as a rookie...what more could he have done from that perspective?)
 
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Michael Farkas

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Yes I mentioned the goals against and save percentage of both Thomas and Rask from the same season and asked you to account for the large discrepancy between both (which you ignored) and the inverse ratings you gave each of them.

From there you decided that I was obsessed with save percentage and a record that I never once brought up.

It was addressed. Rask led the league in everything between Thomas' two relevant seasons...then went on to become like the all-time save pct. king...

Once again, you got three left feet here haha...you brought it up, admitted it you brought it up and then say "never once brought [it] up"

Since I went to work in full Ace Ventura costume and character today (may have cost us a client too...but just one), let's have a look at an instant replay, shall we...?

Yes I mentioned the goals against and save percentage

save percentage and a record that I never once brought up."

Gravyyyyyyyyy...

Take care now, bye bye then...

(Seriously, let me know when you're ready to join us...I've seen you post before, I know you can bring something to this discussion and I'm being genuine when I say that...I'm also being genuine in saying that you know that you're not doing that right now...I'm sure your time is more valuable than this)...
 
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Michael Farkas

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If this is a serious inquiry, it's the total package...he always stunk. And you're reminding me now that we once had this exchange before...and I was miffed that you thought he was good, to the point where I think I asked if you were thinking of the right goalie haha

Let's give some nationalistic perspective...no one asked me, but I'd take Martin Gerber over Jonas Hiller every day of the freakin' week and it's not close...
 

Filthy Dangles

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I know this wasn't about Thomas...that's low hanging and irrelevant fruit that only hosers will jump on...I entertained the exercise because I know the angle you're coming from and I know the angle I'm coming from and they've never been mixed on this scale before...that's why I even sought outside counsel on it to help shape things even better because I'm curious as to what kind of results may come of it...we may unlock a whole different world or we might walk away from it going "ah, you're useless to me..." - either way, it's the process - not the result - that should drive us to have these conversations...

Well this is obviously the major issue being debated in here and at hand, but..... I mean you put a Two-time Vezina winner, Stanley Cup Champion and Conn Smythe Winner and a guy who a lot of people should be in the HHoF, in the lowest tier of goaltenders over the past 2 decades.

I mean you had to expect this would happen...?..you would've had to include some major disclaimer or something before hand to avoid this entire discussion swerving head on to Timmy Thomas...
 

Michael Farkas

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No need to disclaim. People are welcome to discuss anything about this...that's why it was put for public consumption. The idea being that if you sit there and harp on one player like this, you're missing the point...

Whether this "a lot of people" believe a two, non-consecutive year wonder belongs in the goalie-staunch HOF or not isn't relevant...

There were some good questions/queries that allowed for some worthwhile discussion so far, and I hope it continues...
 

bluesfan94

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I do it from rare film and photos,game and posed. Newspaper accounts, books.

Cameras and words tell a lot.
I don’t disagree but there are plenty of times where words oversell. Or undersell. Then you’re getting a second hand subjective eye test that is geared to selling newspapers.

I don’t think rare film is enough to be comprehensive.
 
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bluesfan94

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"Weak competition" refers to the era of goaltending as a whole. Not individuals in a season.
Fine, but you’re comparing now to now. Price or Rinne or Quick or Lundqvist dont have different competition than Thomas and get Thomas won two Vezinas. You’re still elevating that weak competition over someone who was voted to be better
 

bluesfan94

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Of course I'm not trolling, that's for children. Trolls are more succinct, don't waste a lot of time. I typed for hours in this thread as it is haha - and what you're saying is exactly the point. I don't have to be right here about this particular player and this particular season (I am, but that's another story ;) just kidding, relax, mudslingers)...it's about viewing the game through a different lens and looking at things in a different way. A lot of times people see the game but don't watch it...it's 2D vs 3D in a way...there's more dimension to it than it is reduced to for simplicity sometimes and when you take on these major projects - and I don't want my name attached to anything that sucks, I want it to be the best it can be or not at all - it's important that we see things from more angles...

C1958 is a poster that does this often...he's not nearly as wordy as I am, maybe to a fault haha, but he lays out avenues that ought to be pursued that we're not pursuing...considerations that ought to be considered that we're not considering...he's not always right. I'm not always right. Seventies is...well, it's not important what seventies is right now...the fact is, people that come into this type of discussion bull-headed with a scary amount of brand loyalty to something that they don't fully understand themselves will not produce quality conversation or result. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say...
I hope you understand that I’m engaging in good faith and without any particular allegiance to Tim Thomas. Just trying to understand and explore evaluation methods
 

Michael Farkas

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Fine, but you’re comparing now to now. Price or Rinne or Quick or Lundqvist dont have different competition than Thomas and get Thomas won two Vezinas. You’re still elevating that weak competition over someone who was voted to be better

Price, Rinne and Quick - all in their rookie or first full seasons in 2009 I believe...Lundqvist the exception. Vote isn't gospel...I'm sure there are times where people don't agree with the Norris selection or the MVP selection...this Vezina is only getting pointed at here because you (royal you) like it...if you didn't like it, it would be a feather in the cap of a different cause...Thomas isn't my pick for the Vezina in either season, I don't think he was the best goalie and I don't think there were a lot of good goaltenders in the league, particularly in 2009...I'm not sure what else I can say about it that I didn't already address to be honest.

Thomas put up some numbers in cushy Julien save pct. bump land (he has a history of this), there wasn't anything else around for miles...if you're starving, you'll eat at Roy Rogers because it beats dyin'...not because you think it's delicious...or food...

Re: Your follow up post. Doesn't need to be disclaimed. You're going about the right way, I hope it's as interesting to you as it is to me...
 
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Doctor No

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In general, what are your thoughts on Tim Thomas? I know you're the goaile authority on this site. I am not a regular here on HoH so forgive me if your stance on him is widley known or has been posted before. Do you think he's as bad as Mike Farkas thinks? How would you rank him?

I'm a fan of Thomas - I've broken down a lot of his specific game film over the years, since I thought it would benefit two goaltenders in particular that I've worked with. Thomas may look stochastic in nature, but he's got some solid elements of Hasek's vertical angles down at a level that no one since Hasek has really mastered.

I should note that I'm biased in that I've been able to successfully teach vertical angles (and the shooter eye illusion) to my goaltenders, and so deliberately keep an eye out for relevant film to show. (We're all biased on all topics to some degree, and it's the ones who claim otherwise that you really need to watch out for.)

Was Thomas in a situation in Boston that played towards his strengths? Absolutely. Did he have strengths? Absolutely.

I don't expect that I'm going to convince Mike, and I do respect his opinion here since I know that he's diligent about his analysis. He's not trolling.
 

Canadiens1958

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I don’t disagree but there are plenty of times where words oversell. Or undersell. Then you’re getting a second hand subjective eye test that is geared to selling newspapers.

I don’t think rare film is enough to be comprehensive.

Old newspapers with play by play accounts, post game assessements. Montreal featured upwards of 10 English and French into the 1950s.

Old film does not have to be comprehensive. Seeing how a goalie skates and moves is enough.
 

McGuillicuddy

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Sep 6, 2005
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I'm not the only panelist active here, although I may be the only one who's outed himself.

Checking my original list, my Thomas ranking was spitting distance from 35.

You and TCG were the only ones I recognized.

And if you have put any of your "vertical angle" material to paper (or more likely pixel) I would be *very* interested in reading it!
 

Michael Farkas

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Put me down for a lesson on that too, Doc. Like I said upthread, I don't have a full time goalie coach on staff, so I only do what I can, would love to see a new concept...if/when it becomes available, put me on the mailing list please...
 

bluesfan94

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Old newspapers with play by play accounts, post game assessements. Montreal featured upwards of 10 English and French into the 1950s.

Old film does not have to be comprehensive. Seeing how a goalie skates and moves is enough.
I’ve read plenty of old newspapers doing bios for the ATD. The language I read is helpful but is far from objective or devoid of flowery sentiment.

I disagree. Film needs to show enough to know how a goalie plays consistently and whether such a style is effective.

Selective clips can be chosen to make someone look better. Trust me, I played soccer and you should see my highlight tape. Much better than I actually was.
 

Canadiens1958

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I’ve read plenty of old newspapers doing bios for the ATD. The language I read is helpful but is far from objective or devoid of flowery sentiment.

I disagree. Film needs to show enough to know how a goalie plays consistently and whether such a style is effective.

Selective clips can be chosen to make someone look better. Trust me, I played soccer and you should see my highlight tape. Much better than I actually was.

Ah ATD follower. Should have read the tea leaves. Volume accumulation of data. Bios are focused on a player.

Scout Midget AAA.

Goalies or skaters, clips show basic skating, playing technique, on ice recognition,etc.

Game play by play in old papers. Who the puck carriers/rushers were, sides attacked, defensive abilities. Line changes, coaching. I focus on the game
 

Michael Farkas

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Re: video/looks. I am to the point right now where I can see some players play for a handful of shifts and give a complete run down of what they are...some players are tougher to get a beat on, and you need a couple games...but, talking NHL draft eligibles here for a minute, if I see them for a fourth or fifth time, I am bordering on over-scouting territory there...

I am assuming this is already known out there, but there's the classic story of Pekka Rinne being drafted based him being seen in warmup...he hardly ever played for his pro team, Ray Shero flew halfway around the world on a hot tip to watch this kid take warmup, they pick him and they're off and running...point is, if you're good, it doesn't take long to identify fundamental principles of the position...easy to tell if someone is a total yard sale out there or not...
 

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