I have doubts Jones can be an Elite 1D need to get a deal around 4.5-5
Like you, I don't assume that Jones is going to be an elite #1D, but I also somehow think between 5 and $5.75m is fine as long as it's 6 years plus and buys some UFA years.
Here's the list of D-men making between 5.25 and 5.75:
Wideman
Bouwmeester
Ekman-Larsson
Leddy
Sekera
Carle
Petry
Orpik
Wisniewski
Girardi
Myers
Keith
Staal
Enstrom
Markov
Hamilton
Other than Keith and OEL, there are no elite #1D on this list. Some, I guess, are #1D as in top 30 leaguewide, but no elite #1D other than those two.
And if we didn't have Jones this is the kind of pool of D-men we'd have to reach into to have a chance of having a good D group. It's not great value.
It's very achievable for Jones to be better than most of this group, he already is better than many of them. And he has a good shot at being better than all but two, and has at least a small chance at being better than all of them, which is a remarkable thing to say about any young player. Remember that Keith was in the AHL at Jones' age, and OEL was more or less at Jones' level.
Jones was -9 in 41 games for the CBJ. That's Jack Johnsoneque. He scored 2 goals. Oh, but he's young and he's definitely going to be a strong #1 dman. It's just a given.
Yeah. Open the checkbook for him. 6 years, hell make it 8, at $6.5 million each for Popeye's kid.
I'll bet this joke of a front office does it.
1) Jones had a weak 4th quarter, but there's no need to exaggerate it. The plus minus isn't that bad considering he played the heaviest minutes on a team that went full tank down the stretch. And 20 pts in 41 games is a very good pace for a 21 year old D-man, heck for any d-man who isn't already at an elite level offensively.
2) $6.5m is too much, it isn't going to save us money in the long run. I'm not pushing that. Do I need to provide you a link to "red herring" and "strawman" so that you can avoid using them?
3) D-men goals vary wildly - they vary on tips, rebounds, deflections, posts, etc... Keith's goal production the last six seasons: 7,4,3,6,10,9. If a goal is on a rebound or tip rather than a point shot it's all the same to the team. You seem to shift back and forth between championing goals and assists depending on whether it supports your position.